Republicans worry as self-inflicted wounds pile up

Published

2 years ago

February 16, 2023

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Republican lawmakers are wary of their party’s propensity for self-inflicted wounds and are hoping for more discipline heading into the next election cycle.

Leading Republicans think that the House GOP’s raucous reception of President Biden at last week’s State of the Union played into the president’s hands and that the proposal by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to sunset all federal legislation after five years is a political gift to Democrats.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are dismayed that Scott hasn’t disavowed his 12-point plan to “Rescue America,” despite repeated Democratic attacks, and they are disappointed by lapses in message discipline, such as Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) call for annual votes on Medicare and Social Security, which he described as “a legal Ponzi scheme.”

Johnson says that doesn’t mean he wants to cut Social Security, but some of his colleagues worry that Republicans are already giving Democrats too much ammo heading into the 2024 election.

“I think Republicans have got to be wise in how we talk about these issues,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.).

Some Republicans, like Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), have urged other members of their party to be cautious in how they approach the issue of Social Security. (Greg Nash)

Biden’s job approval rating has been mired in the low 40s for much of his first term in office, but Democrats still managed to expand their Senate majority and exceed expectations in the battle for the House last year.

Many Republicans believe the Democrats’ strong showing in the midterms had more to do with their own party’s mistakes than the popularity of Biden’s agenda.

Biden seized on Scott’s 12-point plan at his State of the Union speech, telling the nation that “some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset every five years.”

And Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday pointed to Johnson’s recent comments to advance Biden’s claim.

“Almost as if to prove President Biden correct, Sen. Johnson of Wisconsin reacted to the State of the Union by going on radio and calling for annual votes on Social Security, calling it a ‘Ponzi scheme,’” Schumer said on the Senate floor.

Schumer also pointed out that the House Republican Study Committee released a budget proposal last year that raised the Social Security retirement age and cut some benefits to certain recipients.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) slammed Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) for describing Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme.” (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Johnson on Wednesday defended his comments by arguing that future Social Security recipients aren’t going to get what they put into the trust fund given the nation’s mounting debt.

“It’s not a sustainable system,” he said of Social Security, noting that the number of workers paying into the system to support retirees has dwindled. “A Ponzi scheme is you take from investors. You don’t invest it. You spend it. And you pay off early investors. The later investors get hosed.”

But members of the Senate Republican leadership team don’t see any point in talking about Medicare and Social Security reforms when they don’t think Democrats have any good-faith desire to reform those programs and instead will just use GOP proposals to play offense in next year’s election.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said Biden “loves that, doesn’t he?” referring to Biden hammering Republicans over Scott’s plan.

“What it’s showing is that Biden has no interest in saving Social Security or Medicare from insolvency,” he said. “He’s just going to use it purely as a political pinata.”

Cornyn later said Democrats are using Scott’s plan as “a diversion” to shift public attention away from the nation’s serious debt problem.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is among the GOP members who do not see advantages to continuing to speak about Social Security and Medicare, noting that, Biden “loves that, doesn’t he?” (Greg Nash)

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday tried to quash once and for all Democratic claims that Republicans want to use the expiring debt limit as leverage to cut benefits for seniors.

“It continues to come up. The president was talking about it in the State of the Union,” McConnell told reporters this week. “So let me say it one more time. There is no agenda on the part of Senate Republicans to revisit Medicare or Social Security. Period.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) pointed out that Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said last week that Medicare and Social Security cuts are “off the table” and fellow Republicans need to get the message.

Capito, the chairwoman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, said GOP senators discussed “trying to keep on [a] unified message as much as we can.”

“With the Speaker and our leader, the two Republican leaders, being on the same page, that’s going to drive the message of the day,” she said, referring to McCarthy’s and McConnell’s pledges not to cut Medicare or Social Security.

“Members are going to disagree,” she said, acknowledging differing views on strategy within the GOP conference.

But she argued that party leaders are smart to stay away from what has become the “third rail” of politics — specifically Medicare and Social Security cuts — in the debt limit discussions with the White House.

“I’m unified with the message that we need to stay away from these things to solve some fiscal problems,” she said.

Some Republican senators say they weren’t thrilled with the jeering and raucous reception Biden received from House Republicans at last week’s State of the Union address, which appeared to play into the president’s hands in front of a national television audience.

Some Republicans have expressed dismay over the raucous response Biden received at his State of the Union address, where he addressed Republicans’ reported plans for Social Security and Medicare. (Greg Nash)

Schumer said the contrast between Biden and “these guys screaming and yelling” and “just calling names” is “going to serve the president so well.”

Veteran journalist Chris Wallace said GOP lawmakers who heckled Biden “literally played into his hands.”

Later, when he was asked about Wallace’s observation that Republicans might have unwittingly made the president look good, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) replied, “That may be fair.”

He said that Republicans should stick to “reasonable and enduring policy” proposals instead of made-for-television antics that give Democrats a chance to change to subject to the behavior of Republican personalities.

“I think we’re missing an opportunity to differentiate,” he said. “Focus on policy. If you get that done, it will age well.”

Another Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment on House colleagues said that decorum is good for the party’s brand.

“We ought to be polite and respectful to each other. This is not theater. It’s governing,” the senator said, commenting on the unruly reactions to Biden’s speech last week. “It’s damaging to the politics. It appeals to a handful of people and turns off a whole bunch more.”

Looking ahead to next year’s election, Senate Republicans say they need to do a better job of helping ensure the most electable candidates advance to the general election, something they believe did not happen last year in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Democrats won.

At a one-day retreat last week, GOP lawmakers discussed the need for the National Republican Senatorial Committee to get more involved in the candidate vetting and selection process in 2024. Trump warns Scott on Social Security, Medicare: ‘THERE WILL BE NO CUTS’ Haley calls for generational change when asked about differences with Trump

“I think it’s more a matter of interacting with the states to make sure that they understand this is all about winning the finals, not the semifinals,” Tillis said.

Capito said the retreat was “forward thinking.”

“Candidate recruitment is a repeating message, making sure we get candidates that win the primary that can win the general,” she said.

Business

Donald Trump climbs down from threat to escalate trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminium

Published

2 hours ago

March 12, 2025

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Donald Trump climbs down from threat to escalate trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminium

Donald Trump briefly threatened to escalate his trade war with Canada by doubling his planned tariffs on its steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%.

The US president stepped back from his order after the provincial government of Ontario rowed back on a plan to charge 25% more for electricity it supplies to over 1.5 million American homes and businesses.

Canada’s most populous province provides electricity to Minnesota, New York and Michigan.

As a result, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Mr Trump would not double steel and aluminium tariffs – but the federal government still plans to place a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports from Wednesday.

Ontario’s response

In his initial response to Mr Trump’s threat, Ontario’s premier Doug Ford said he would not back down until the US leader’s tariffs on Canadian imports were “gone for good”.

But he later suspended the change temporarily, saying “cooler heads need to prevail” and he was confident the US president would also stand down on his plans.

Meanwhile, Canada’s incoming prime minister Mark Carney said he will keep other tariffs in place until Americans “show respect” and commit to free trade.

Mr Carney called the new tariffs threatened by Mr Trump an “attack” on Canadian workers, families and businesses.

Why is Trump threatening tariffs?

A worldwide 25% tariff on steel and aluminium is due to come into effect on Wednesday as a way to kickstart US domestic production.

Separate tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada covered by a previous trade agreement (the US Mexico Canada, or USMCA deal) were delayed by a month to 2 April.

President Trump seems to bear a particular grudge against Canada because of what he sees as rampant fentanyl smuggling and high Canadian taxes on dairy imports, which penalise US farmers.

He has called for Canada to become part of the United States as its “cherished 51st state” as a solution, which has angered Canadian leaders.

Economic impact

Mr Trump’s turnaround comes after markets fell in response to his threat of doubling tariffs.

The stock market has fallen over the last two weeks and Harvard University economist Larry Summers put the odds of a recession at 50-50.

“All the emphasis on tariffs and all the ambiguity and uncertainty has both chilled demand and caused prices to go up,” the former treasury secretary for the Clinton administration posted on X on Monday.

“We are getting the worst of both worlds – concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything.”

Investment bank Goldman Sachs revised down its growth forecast for this year from 2.2% to 1.7% and moderately increased its recession probability to 20% “because the White House has the option to pull back policy changes if downside risks begin to look more serious”.

Mr Trump has tried to reassure the American public that his tariffs will cause a bit of a “transition” to the economy as taxes spur more companies to begin the years-long process of relocating factories to the US to avoid tariffs.

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Trump refuses to rule out recession

Mr Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession during an interview with Fox News on Sunday, where he said: “I hate to predict things like that.”

On Tuesday, he was asked about a potential recession and said “I don’t see it at all” and claimed the US is “going to boom”.

On Monday, the S&P 500 stock index fell 2.7% and on Tuesday it was around 10% below its record set last month.

US

Donald Trump climbs down from threat to escalate trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminium

Published

2 hours ago

March 12, 2025

admin

Donald Trump briefly threatened to escalate his trade war with Canada by doubling his planned tariffs on its steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%.

Canada’s most populous province provides electricity to Minnesota, New York and Michigan.

Ontario’s response

In his initial response to Mr Trump’s threat, Ontario’s premier Doug Ford said he would not back down until the US leader’s tariffs on Canadian imports were “gone for good”.

But he later suspended the change temporarily, saying “cooler heads need to prevail” and he was confident the US president would also stand down on his plans.

Meanwhile, Canada’s incoming prime minister Mark Carney said he will keep other tariffs in place until Americans “show respect” and commit to free trade.

Mr Carney called the new tariffs threatened by Mr Trump an “attack” on Canadian workers, families and businesses.

Why is Trump threatening tariffs?

A worldwide 25% tariff on steel and aluminium is due to come into effect on Wednesday as a way to kickstart US domestic production.

Separate tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada covered by a previous trade agreement (the US Mexico Canada, or USMCA deal) were delayed by a month to 2 April.

President Trump seems to bear a particular grudge against Canada because of what he sees as rampant fentanyl smuggling and high Canadian taxes on dairy imports, which penalise US farmers.

He has called for Canada to become part of the United States as its “cherished 51st state” as a solution, which has angered Canadian leaders.

Economic impact

Mr Trump’s turnaround comes after markets fell in response to his threat of doubling tariffs.

The stock market has fallen over the last two weeks and Harvard University economist Larry Summers put the odds of a recession at 50-50.

“We are getting the worst of both worlds – concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything.”

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

Trump refuses to rule out recession

Mr Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession during an interview with Fox News on Sunday, where he said: “I hate to predict things like that.”

On Tuesday, he was asked about a potential recession and said “I don’t see it at all” and claimed the US is “going to boom”.

On Monday, the S&P 500 stock index fell 2.7% and on Tuesday it was around 10% below its record set last month.

Environment

Elon Musk claims Tesla will double US production in next two years, let’s do the math

Published

3 hours ago

March 11, 2025

admin

Elon Musk claims Tesla will double US production in next two years, let's do the math

Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years.

What would that look like? Let’s do the math.

Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following:

“As a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.”

This raises many questions, as Musk’s phrasing of the statement suggests that Tesla is planning to add previously unannounced production capacity in response to Trump’s policies.

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However, the reality could be different.

What is Tesla’s current production capacity in the US?

We only know Tesla’s installed capacity, which is much different than its actual production rate.

This is Tesla’s latest disclosed global production capacity at the end of 2024:

Region	Model	Capacity	Status
California	Model S / Model X	100,000	Production
	Model 3 / Model Y	>550,000	Production
Shanghai	Model 3 / Model Y	>950,000	Production
Berlin	Model Y	>375,000	Production
Texas	Model Y	>250,000	Production
	Cybertruck	>125,000	Production
	Cybercab	—	In development
Nevada	Tesla Semi	—	Pilot production
TBD	Roadster	—	In development

In the US, it adds up to 1,025,000 vehicles per year.

In reality, Tesla’s factories are operating at a much lower capacity.

Based on sales and inventory from 2024, Tesla is currently building fewer than 50,000 Model S/X vehicles per year compared to an installed capacity of 100,000 units.

As for Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is currently building them in the US at a rate of about 600,000 units per year compared to claimed installed capacity of over 800,000 units.

Finally, the Cybertruck is being produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year compared to an installed capacity of over 125,000 units.

This adds up to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the US in 2024.

What will be Tesla’s new capacity?

Considering Musk mentioned that it will happen “within the next two years”, it is unlikely that he is referring to installed capacity.

The CEO is most likely talking about Tesla’s actual production, which would also make sense, especially considering he mentioned “output.”

Tesla currently outputs roughly 700,000 vehicles per year in the US.

Doubling that would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it’s not entirely a new plan for Tesla.

First off, Tesla has already announced plans to unveil two new, more affordable models this year. These models are going to be built on the same production lines as Model 3/Y, which would potentially enable Tesla to fully utilize its installed capacity for those vehicles.

That’s another 200,000 units already.

As already mentioned in Tesla’s installed capacity table, the company is currently developing its production facility for the Tesla Semi electric truck in Nevada.

Production is expected to start later this year and ramp up next year. Tesla has previously mentioned a goal of 50,000 units per year. It would leave Tesla roughly a year and half to ramp up to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.

Then there’s the “Cybercab”, which was unveiled last year.

The Cybercab is going to use Tesla’s next-gen vehicle platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.

Production is expected to start in 2026, and Musk has mentioned a production capacity of “at least 2 million units per year”. However, he said that this would likely come from more than one factory and it’s unclear if the other factory would be in the US.

Either way, Tesla would need to ramp up Cybercab production in the US to 450,000 units to make Musk’s announcement correct.

It’s fair to note that all of this was part of Tesla’s plans before the US elections, Trump’s coming into power, or the implementation of any policies whatsoever.

Electrek’s Take

Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It’s just a reiteration of Elon’s plans for Tesla in the US, which were established long before Trump came to power or even before Elon officially backed Trump.

It’s just more “corporate puffery” as Elon’s lawyers would say.

Also, if I wasn’t clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt Tesla will have the demand for that, especially if Elon remains involved with the company.

The Cybercab doesn’t even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn’t solve self-driving, it will be hard to justify producing 450,000 units per year.

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