Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
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Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency.
The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil products came into effect on Feb. 5, building on the $60 oil price cap implemented by the G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies on Dec. 5.
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Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.
China, India and Turkey in particular ramped up purchases to partially offset the 400,000-barrel-per-day fall in Russian crude exports to Europe in January, according to the IEA’s oil market report published Wednesday. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo.
As such, Russian net oil output fell by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, the IEA said. The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.
Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed.
“The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues. Even though Russian production is coming to market, we’re seeing that the revenues that Russia receives from its oil and gas have really come down,” Bosoni said.
“For instance in January, export revenues for Russia were about $13 billion, that’s down 36% from a year ago,” she said. “Russian fiscal receipts from the oil industry is down 48% in the year, so in that sense we can say that the price cap is having its intended effect.”
She also highlighted the growing discrepancy between Russian Urals crude prices and international benchmark Brent crude. The former averaged $49.48 per barrel in January, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, while Brent was trading above $85 a barrel on Thursday.
Importantly, Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price average of $70.10/bbl, so plunging fiscal revenues from oil operations year-on-year are leaving a substantial hole in public finances.
Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.
“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.
Production cut
Russia announced last week that it would cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in response to the latest round of Western bans, amounting to around 5% of its latest crude output.
However, Bosoni said this was in line with the IEA’s expectations.
“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.
“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”
In its report, the IEA suggested the production cut may be less about retaliation and more an attempt by Moscow to shore up pricing by curbing output rather than continuing to sell at a large discount to countries complying with the G-7 price caps.
Global oil demand
Global oil demand growth is expected to pick up in 2023 after a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2022, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.
The IEA said a pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks highlighted the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth. Oil deliveries are expected to surge by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand hitting a record 101.9 million barrels a day.
The effects of the West’s latest oil embargo and price cap will be a key factor in meeting that demand growth, the IEA report noted.
“So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand,” it said.
“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”
Renewables and nuclear provided 40.9% of the world’s power generation in 2024, passing the 40% mark for the first time since the 1940s, according to a new global energy think tank Ember report.
Renewables added a record 858 TWh in 2024, 49% more than the previous high in 2022. Solar was the largest contributor for the third year running, adding 474 TWh to reach a share of 6.9%. Solar was the fastest-growing power source (+29%) for the 20th year in a row.
Solar has doubled in just three years, providing more than 2,000 TWh of electricity in 2024. Wind generation also grew to 8.1% of global electricity, while hydro – the single largest renewable source – remained steady at 14% of global electricity.
“Solar power has become the engine of the global energy transition,” said Phil MacDonald, Ember’s managing director. “Paired with battery storage, solar is set to be an unstoppable force. As the fastest-growing and largest source of new electricity, it is critical in meeting the world’s ever-increasing demand for electricity.”
Ember’s sixth annual Global Electricity Review, published today, provides the first comprehensive overview of the global power system in 2024 based on country-level data. It’s published alongside the world’s first open dataset on electricity generation in 2024, covering 88 countries that account for 93% of global electricity demand, as well as historical data for 215 countries.
What drove the rising power demand
The analysis finds that fossil fuels also saw a small 1.4% increase in 2024 due to surging electricity demand, pushing global power sector emissions up 1.6% to an all-time high.
Heatwaves were the main driver of the rise in fossil generation, accounting for almost a fifth (+0.7%) of the increase in global electricity demand in 2024 (+4.0%), mainly through additional use of cooling. Without these temperature effects, fossil fuel generation would have risen by only 0.2%, as clean electricity generation met 96% of the demand growth not caused by hotter temperatures.
“Amid the noise, it’s essential to focus on the real signal,” continued MacDonald. “Hotter weather drove the fossil generation increase in 2024, but we’re very unlikely to see a similar jump in 2025.”
Aside from weather effects, the increasing use of electricity for AI, data centers, EVs, and heat pumps is already contributing to global demand growth. Combined, the growing use of these technologies accounted for a 0.7% increase in global electricity demand in 2024, double what they contributed five years ago.
Clean power will grow faster than demand
Ember’s report shows that clean generation growth is set to outpace faster-rising demand in the coming years, marking the start of a permanent decline in fossil fuel generation. The current expected growth in clean generation would be sufficient to meet a demand increase of 4.1% per year to 2030, which is above expectations for demand growth.
“The world is watching how technologies like AI and EVs will drive electricity demand,” said MacDonald. “It’s clear that booming solar and wind are comfortably set to deliver, and those expecting fossil fuel generation to keep rising will be disappointed.”
Beyond emerging technologies, the growth trajectories of the world’s largest emerging economies will play a crucial role in defining the global outlook. More than half of the increase in solar generation in 2024 was in China, with its clean generation growth meeting 81% of its demand increase in 2024. India’s solar capacity additions in 2024 doubled compared to 2023. These two countries are at the forefront of the drive to clean power and will help tip the balance toward a decline in fossil generation at a global level.
Professor Xunpeng Shi, president of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS), said: “The future of the global power system is being shaped in Asia, with China and India at the heart of the energy transition. Their increasing reliance on renewables to power demand growth marks a shift that will redefine the global power sector and accelerate the decline of fossil fuels.”
Read more: Made-in-America solar just got a big win in Louisiana
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The next-gen LEAF is almost here, and it’s looking better than ever. This isn’t the electric hatch you are used to seeing. Nissan’s new LEAF EV has more range, a fresh crossover design, and yes, it can finally charge up at Tesla Superchargers with an NACS port. With the official reveal just around the corner, someone already spotted the new LEAF at a Tesla charger in Canada.
Nissan is launching the new LEAF in the US and Canada
A little over a week ago, we finally got our first look at the third-generation LEAF. Nissan’s iconic electric hatch has grown into a “sleek and spacious family-friendly crossover.”
The US and Canada will be the first to see the reimagined LEAF later this year. It will join the Ariya in Nissan’s North American EV lineup as it looks to spark growth in one of its most important markets.
Based on the CMF-EV platform, the same one underpinning the Ariya, Nissan promises the new LEAF will have “significant range improvements.” Although no other details were revealed, Nissan’s vehicle programs chief, Francois Bailly, told TopGear.com that it’s expected to have WLTP driving range of up to 373 miles (600 km).
It will likely be lower on the EPA scale, but anything even close to 300 miles would be a major improvement over the current 212 EPA-estimated miles offered on the 2025 LEAF SV Plus.
The next-gen LEAF will also be Nissan’s first EV to feature an integrated NACS charging port. With its official debut later this year, the new model is out for testing and was just caught testing at a Tesla Supercharger in Canada.
If you didn’t know what vehicle it is, the LEAF is hardly recognizable. The new image from KindelAuto gives us a closer look at the new crossover design. It almost looks like a Tesla sitting in front of the charger.
The new LEAF is one of 10 new and refreshed Nissan vehicles set to launch in the US and Canada. It will arrive later this year, followed by the fourth-gen Rogue in 2026, which will be available as a PHEV for the first time.
Nissan also plans to build a new “adventure-focused SUV” at its Canton, Mississippi, plant in late 2027. The teaser shows what appears to be a rugged electric Xterra. We’ll have to wait for more details on that one.
Nissan will reveal additional info about the upcoming LEAF mid-year. Check back soon for more updates.
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The Port of Barcelona launched the Ecocat Tres, a highly efficient, all-electric commuter ferry powered by Molabo’s ARIES i50 electric motors.
Ecocat Tres is the latest zero-emission ferry in Bus Nàutic’s growing electric fleet, providing clean transportation between the Drassanes and Llevant wharves. In just its first three months, the Bus Nàutic service logged over 125,000 sustainable trips. Operated by ALSA and backed by the Port of Barcelona, the initiative offers locals and visitors an eco-friendly way to travel, cutting down on road congestion and air pollution in the bustling city.
Built by Spanish shipbuilder Metaltec Naval, Ecocat Tres is a 15-meter aluminum catamaran that carries up to 84 passengers. It even includes a rooftop deck, offering extra seating and a breezy ride across the port. The ferry runs every 15 to 30 minutes for at least 12 hours each day, with the entire trip taking about 10 minutes.
Under the deck are two powerful 48V Molabo ARIES i50 motors, enabling the electric ferry to hit a top speed of 12 knots. Cruising at its regular operational speed of 5 knots, Ecocat Tres can run efficiently for up to 21 hours on a single charge, making it highly reliable for daily commuters.
Molabo’s motors have a low-voltage setup, which makes them safer to maintain compared to traditional high-voltage electric systems. Passengers also enjoy a smoother, quieter ride thanks to significantly reduced noise and vibrations onboard. Azimut Marine supplied the full propulsion and energy system, which includes two ARIES 50 kW electric drives, 36 batteries providing a total of 216 kWh, fast chargers, and integrated solar panels. Impressively, solar power alone can cover up to 40% of the ferry’s energy needs.
Ecocat Tres will cut around 90 tons of CO2 emissions each year, making a positive impact on Barcelona’s ambitious climate goals.
Port of Barcelona president José Antonio Carbonell said, “This 100% electric, zero-emission passenger ferry is helping us reshape mobility in the port and accelerate the decarbonization of our operations.”
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