Sanctions on Russian oil are having the ‘intended effect,’ IEA says
Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
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Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency.
The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil products came into effect on Feb. 5, building on the $60 oil price cap implemented by the G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies on Dec. 5.
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Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.
China, India and Turkey in particular ramped up purchases to partially offset the 400,000-barrel-per-day fall in Russian crude exports to Europe in January, according to the IEA’s oil market report published Wednesday. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo.
As such, Russian net oil output fell by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, the IEA said. The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.
Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed.
“The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues. Even though Russian production is coming to market, we’re seeing that the revenues that Russia receives from its oil and gas have really come down,” Bosoni said.
“For instance in January, export revenues for Russia were about $13 billion, that’s down 36% from a year ago,” she said. “Russian fiscal receipts from the oil industry is down 48% in the year, so in that sense we can say that the price cap is having its intended effect.”
She also highlighted the growing discrepancy between Russian Urals crude prices and international benchmark Brent crude. The former averaged $49.48 per barrel in January, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, while Brent was trading above $85 a barrel on Thursday.
Importantly, Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price average of $70.10/bbl, so plunging fiscal revenues from oil operations year-on-year are leaving a substantial hole in public finances.
Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.
“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.
Production cut
Russia announced last week that it would cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in response to the latest round of Western bans, amounting to around 5% of its latest crude output.
However, Bosoni said this was in line with the IEA’s expectations.
“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.
“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”
In its report, the IEA suggested the production cut may be less about retaliation and more an attempt by Moscow to shore up pricing by curbing output rather than continuing to sell at a large discount to countries complying with the G-7 price caps.
Global oil demand
Global oil demand growth is expected to pick up in 2023 after a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2022, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.
The IEA said a pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks highlighted the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth. Oil deliveries are expected to surge by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand hitting a record 101.9 million barrels a day.
The effects of the West’s latest oil embargo and price cap will be a key factor in meeting that demand growth, the IEA report noted.
“So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand,” it said.
“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”
After a month off trying to wrap our heads around all the chaos surrounding EVs, solar, and everything else in Washington, we’re back with the biggest EV news stories of the day from Tesla, Ford, Volvo, and everyone else on today’s hiatus-busting episode of Quick Charge!
It just gets worse and worse for the Tesla true believers – especially those willing to put their money where Elon’s mouth is! One believer is set to lose nearly $50,000 betting on Tesla’s ability to deliver a Robotaxi service by the end of June (didn’t happen), and the controversial CEO’s most recent spat with President Trump had TSLA down nearly 5% in pre-morning trading.
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Hyundai is getting ready to shake things up. A new electric crossover SUV, likely the Hyundai IONIQ 2, is set to debut in the coming months. It will sit below the Kona Electric as Hyundai expands its entry-level EV lineup.
Is Hyundai launching the IONIQ 2 in 2026?
After launching the Inster late last year, Hyundai is already preparing to introduce a new entry-level EV in Europe.
Xavier Martinet, President and CEO of Hyundai Europe, confirmed that the new EV will be revealed “in the next few months.” It will be built in Europe and scheduled to go on sale in mid-2026.
Hyundai’s new electric crossover is expected to be a twin to the Kia EV2, which will likely arrive just ahead of it next year.
It will be underpinned by the same E-GMP platform, which powers all IONIQ and Kia EV models (EV3, EV4, EV5, EV6, and EV9).
Like the Kia EV3, it will likely be available with either a 58.3 kWh or 81.4 kWh battery pack option. The former provides a WLTP range of 267 miles while the latter is rated with up to 372 miles. All trims are powered by a single electric motor at the front, producing 201 hp and 209 lb-ft of torque.
Although it may share the same underpinnings as the EV2, Hyundai’s new entry-level EV will feature an advanced new software and infotainment system.
According to Autocar, the interior will represent a “step change” in terms of usability and features. The new system enables new functions, such as ambient lighting and sounds that adjust depending on the drive mode.
It’s expected to showcase Hyundai’s powerful new Pleos software and infotainment system. As an end-to-end software platform, Pleos connects everything from the infotainment system (Pleos Connect) to the Vehicle Operating System (OS) and the cloud.
Pleos is set to power Hyundai’s upcoming software-defined vehicles (SDVs) with new features like autonomous driving and real-time data analysis.
As an Android-based system, Pleos Connect features a “smartphone-like UI” with new functions including multi-window viewing and an AI voice assistant.
The new electric crossover is expected to start at around €30,000 ($35,400), or slightly less than the Kia EV3, priced from €35,990 ($42,500). It will sit between the Inster and Kona Electric in Hyundai’s lineup.
Hyundai said that it would launch the first EV with its next-gen infotainment system in Q2 2026. Will it be the IONIQ 2? Hyundai is expected to unveil the new entry-level EV at IAA Mobility in September. Stay tuned for more info. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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Tesla has unveiled its lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery cell factory in Nevada and claims that it is nearly ready to start production.
Like several other automakers using LFP cells, Tesla relies heavily on Chinese manufacturers for its battery cell supply.
Tesla’s cheapest electric vehicles all utilize LFP cells, and its entire range of energy storage products, Megapacks and Powerwalls, also employ the more affordable LFP cell chemistry from Chinese manufacturers.
This reliance on Chinese manufacturers is less than ideal and particularly complicated for US automakers and battery pack manufacturers like Tesla, amid an ongoing trade war between the US and virtually the entire world, including China.
As of last year, a 25% tariff already applied to battery cells from China, but this increased to more than 80% under Trump before he paused some tariffs on China. It remains unclear where they will end up by the time negotiations are complete and the trade war is resolved, but many expect it to be higher.
Prior to Trump taking power, Tesla had already planned to build a small LFP battery factory in the US to avoid the 25% tariffs.
The automaker had secured older manufacturing equipment from one of its battery cell suppliers, CATL, and planned to deploy it in the US for small-scale production.
Tesla has now released new images of the factory in Nevada and claimed that it is “nearing completion”:
Here are a few images from inside the factory (via Tesla):
Previous reporting stated that Tesla aims to produce about 10 GWh of LFP battery cells per year at the new factory.
The cells are expected to be used in Tesla’s Megapack, produced in the US. Tesla currently has a capacity to produce 40 GWh of Megapacks annually at its factory in California. The company is also working on a new Megapack factory in Texas.
Ford is also developing its own LFP battery cell factory in Michigan, but this facility is significantly larger, with a planned production capacity of 35 GWh.
Electrek’s Take
It’s nice to see this in the US. LFP was a US/Canada invention, with Arumugam Manthiram and John B. Goodenough doing much of the early work, and researchers in Quebec making several contributions to help with commercialization.
But China saw the potential early and invested heavily in volume manufacturing of LFP cells and it now dominates the market.
Tesla is now producing most of its vehicles with LFP cells and all its stationary energy storage products.
It makes sense to invest in your own production. However, Tesla is unlikely to catch up to BYD and CATL, which dominate LFP cell production.
The move will help Tesla avoid tariffs on a small percentage of its Megapacks produced in the US. Ford’s effort is more ambitious.
It’s worth noting that both Ford’s and Tesla’s LFP plants were planned before Trump’s tariffs, which have had limited success in bringing manufacturing back to the US.
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