Sanctions on Russian oil are having the ‘intended effect,’ IEA says
Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
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Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency.
The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil products came into effect on Feb. 5, building on the $60 oil price cap implemented by the G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies on Dec. 5.
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Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.
China, India and Turkey in particular ramped up purchases to partially offset the 400,000-barrel-per-day fall in Russian crude exports to Europe in January, according to the IEA’s oil market report published Wednesday. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo.
As such, Russian net oil output fell by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, the IEA said. The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.
Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed.
“The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues. Even though Russian production is coming to market, we’re seeing that the revenues that Russia receives from its oil and gas have really come down,” Bosoni said.
“For instance in January, export revenues for Russia were about $13 billion, that’s down 36% from a year ago,” she said. “Russian fiscal receipts from the oil industry is down 48% in the year, so in that sense we can say that the price cap is having its intended effect.”
She also highlighted the growing discrepancy between Russian Urals crude prices and international benchmark Brent crude. The former averaged $49.48 per barrel in January, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, while Brent was trading above $85 a barrel on Thursday.
Importantly, Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price average of $70.10/bbl, so plunging fiscal revenues from oil operations year-on-year are leaving a substantial hole in public finances.
Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.
“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.
Production cut
Russia announced last week that it would cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in response to the latest round of Western bans, amounting to around 5% of its latest crude output.
However, Bosoni said this was in line with the IEA’s expectations.
“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.
“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”
In its report, the IEA suggested the production cut may be less about retaliation and more an attempt by Moscow to shore up pricing by curbing output rather than continuing to sell at a large discount to countries complying with the G-7 price caps.
Global oil demand
Global oil demand growth is expected to pick up in 2023 after a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2022, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.
The IEA said a pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks highlighted the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth. Oil deliveries are expected to surge by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand hitting a record 101.9 million barrels a day.
The effects of the West’s latest oil embargo and price cap will be a key factor in meeting that demand growth, the IEA report noted.
“So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand,” it said.
“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”
File this under “wishful thinking” if you want, but a fresh trademark filing for the Buick Electra name could mean that the storied nameplate is set for a return to US shores.
GM Authority reports that Buick parent company General Motors has renewed its trademark for the Buick Electra name in the US in a filing from 09DEC2025 with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and received an assigned serial number 99538079. The application carries a Goods and Services of, “Motor land vehicles, namely, automobiles.”
Electra a nameplate that holds a long history with the near-luxe Buick brand and has generally been believed to be one that’s especially relevant to Buick’s electrification strategy in the US. That’s a notion that seems especially true when you consider the following two facts:
- the Buick Electra nameplate is already featured on a number of hugely successful GM products being sold in the ultra-competitive Chinese market
- 2027 is the fortieth anniversary of the Buick Grand National, and GM’s marketers are way too smart to let that moment slide
It’s worth noting, of course, that this most recent renewal for the Buick Electra trademark is a long, long way from a confirmation of a new all-electric Buick for the US market and even further from a confirmation that we’re getting the hot, sexy Electra GM sells in China. If anything, it’s likely just a matter of course legal thing that GM needs to protect its IP in China while, at the same time, preventing some kind of disastrous Sierra Mist scenario from playing out at home (which– yeah, I get that it’s not true, but you got the idea).
That said, I want to believe.
Electrek’s Take
I’m a huge fan of GM, GM’s EVs, and the way Mary Barra has managed the General over the past several years. I also think a big, sexy sedan is sorely missing from GM’s lineup, and the fast, flashy electric sedan formula might play better at the Buick store than at the Cadillac brand.
Combine that with an overwhelming desire to see a new-age Buick Grand National parked in my garage next Christmas and you can see that I’m not to be trusted. So, what say you? Head on down to the comments and let us know what you think of an American Electra revival just in time for the 2027 model year.
SOURCE | IMAGES: GM Authority; GM.
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Heavy equipment giants Caterpillar have signed an agreement with Vale that will see the company dramatically expand its fleet of autonomous haul trucks deployed at iron ore operations in the Carajás region of Brazil over the next three years.
Vale’s Northern System mining operation currently has 14 CAT, 320-ton autonomous haul trucks in service. With this new deal, sold by Caterpillar’s Brazilian dealer, Sotreq, the autonomous haul truck fleet will expand to some ninety (!) of the massive, self-driving trucks by 2028. The big yellow trucks will be operated by CAT®, MineStar™ Command for hauling, and ship with a payload capacity of between 240 to an almost unimaginable 400 (!!) tons.
“We’re proud to introduce Cat Command for hauling at Vale’s Carajás site,” says Marc Cameron, Senior Vice President at Caterpillar. “By equipping Vale’s haul trucks with our autonomous technology, we will be delivering scalable solutions that meet their needs across a mixed fleet.”
CAT says this new deal represents, “a transformational leap,” citing the fact that autonomous trucks remove workers from hazardous areas and enable safer and more inclusive environments for mine employees – and more efficient operations for Vale.
That fact is backed by results from other Vale operations that have deployed large numbers of autonomous vehicles, which saw gains of up to 15% in operational performance and a 7.5% reduction in fuel use (more with electric drive), contributing to the reduction of the company’s carbon emissions. And, because this is end-stage capitalism 2025, they’re crediting AI for discovering those efficiencies.
“By integrating autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and advanced data analysis, we are modernizing our mining operations in the Northern Corridor, becoming a global benchmark in smart mining, promoting the transformation of the industry, and connecting us to international best practices,” says Rafael Bittar, Vale Vice President, Technical.
The trucks will be delivered over the next three years, and are expected to be in full operation and up to speed by 2030.
Electrek’s Take
As I’ve said before, EVs and mining to together like peanut butter and jelly. In confined spaces, the carbon emissions and ear-splitting noise made by conventional, ICE-powered mining equipment can create dangerous circumstances that can lead to serious injuries (or worse), and that’s just going to make it even harder for a mining operation to keep people working and minerals coming out of the ground.
By working with companies like Caterpillar to prove that forward-looking electric equipment can do the job as well as well as (if not better than) their internal combustion counterparts, Vale will go a long way towards converting what’s left of the ICE faithful.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Vale, Caterpillar.
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Electric medium-duty startups Motive and Workhorse have logged millions of miles across their customer fleets — and by joining forces, they’re out to prove, once and for all, that electric vehicles can get the job done.
Following shareholder votes last month, Ohio-based Workhorse and San Francisco-based Motive are merging to form one of the largest commercial electric vehicle and last-mile delivery telematics solutions companies in the industry.
The all-stock transaction, announced last week, values the combined company at approximately $105 million and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to Workhorse shareholder approval.
Under the terms of the agreement, Motiv’s controlling investor will become the majority owner with approximately 62.5% of the combined company, while Workhorse shareholders will maintain a significant equity stake of approximately 26.5%.
The move is intended to combine Workhorse’ manufacturing capabilities and nationwide dealer network with Motiv’s proven product portfolio and existing fleet relationships to serve the growing $23 billion medium-duty truck segment with a full range of Class 4-6 electric vehicles that plays to the strengths of both companies while, at the same time, proving them with economies of scale they’ll need to survive the next wave of fake “the EV market is dead” headlines.
“Bringing together two leading OEMs in the medium-duty space strengthens our ability to reduce the cost of electric trucks and make the total cost of ownership even more compelling,” said Scott Griffith, CEO of Motiv, who will lead the combined company. “We believe this is a coming-of-age moment — not just for Motiv and Workhorse, but for the industry as a whole.”
The companies anticipate a minimum of $20 million in cost synergies by the end of 2026 through reductions in redundant R&D, G&A, and facility costs (and, of course, the associated layoffs).
Workhorse’s Union City facility has the capacity to eventually produce up to 5,000 trucks per year — a significant manufacturing scale for the merged operation and light years ahead of what Motiv’s existing facilities can crank out.
“This transaction represents a significant milestone for Workhorse, our customers, our stakeholders and our shareholders,” Rick Dauch, CEO of Workhorse and advisor to the new, combined company told FreightWaves. “We believe Motiv is the right partner to support the advancement of our combined product roadmap and capture new growth opportunities.”
The new, combined electric box van company will being life with 10 of the largest medium-duty fleets in North America as existing customers, and hopes to expand their line of offerings into the electric bus and RV markets in the years to come.
Electrek’s Take
Workhorse and Motive can spin this merger however they like — but this move is as much about survival in the new, incentive-lite era of Trump 2 than it is about anything else. That doesn’t mean it’s not a smart move, as each of the parts of this new whole has eliminated a very strong competitor while, at the same time, gaining all at least some of their best features.
As cynical as I am about corporate consolidation and layoffs (especially during the holidays), I can’t help but think this could be a winning move.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Workhorse; via FreightWaves.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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