Sanctions on Russian oil are having the ‘intended effect,’ IEA says
Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
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Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency.
The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil products came into effect on Feb. 5, building on the $60 oil price cap implemented by the G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies on Dec. 5.
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Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.
China, India and Turkey in particular ramped up purchases to partially offset the 400,000-barrel-per-day fall in Russian crude exports to Europe in January, according to the IEA’s oil market report published Wednesday. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo.
As such, Russian net oil output fell by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, the IEA said. The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.
Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed.
“The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues. Even though Russian production is coming to market, we’re seeing that the revenues that Russia receives from its oil and gas have really come down,” Bosoni said.
“For instance in January, export revenues for Russia were about $13 billion, that’s down 36% from a year ago,” she said. “Russian fiscal receipts from the oil industry is down 48% in the year, so in that sense we can say that the price cap is having its intended effect.”
She also highlighted the growing discrepancy between Russian Urals crude prices and international benchmark Brent crude. The former averaged $49.48 per barrel in January, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, while Brent was trading above $85 a barrel on Thursday.
Importantly, Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price average of $70.10/bbl, so plunging fiscal revenues from oil operations year-on-year are leaving a substantial hole in public finances.
Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.
“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.
Production cut
Russia announced last week that it would cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in response to the latest round of Western bans, amounting to around 5% of its latest crude output.
However, Bosoni said this was in line with the IEA’s expectations.
“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.
“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”
In its report, the IEA suggested the production cut may be less about retaliation and more an attempt by Moscow to shore up pricing by curbing output rather than continuing to sell at a large discount to countries complying with the G-7 price caps.
Global oil demand
Global oil demand growth is expected to pick up in 2023 after a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2022, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.
The IEA said a pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks highlighted the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth. Oil deliveries are expected to surge by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand hitting a record 101.9 million barrels a day.
The effects of the West’s latest oil embargo and price cap will be a key factor in meeting that demand growth, the IEA report noted.
“So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand,” it said.
“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”
Solar panel giant Qcells announced today that it’s temporarily furloughing 1,000 US workers – 25% of its workforce – and reducing pay and shifts at its factories in northeast Georgia due to supply chain delays caused by US Customs.
Qcells furloughs 1,000 workers
The supply chain delays are hindering the company’s ability to import components to build its solar panels. This has resulted in Qcells’ two factories in Cartersville and Dalton being unable to operate at full capacity for several months.
Qcells spokeswoman Marta Stoepker shared the following statement in an exclusive with Channel 2 Action News in Atlanta:
The company says the furloughed workers, who were notified this afternoon, will retain full benefits and won’t be laid off. However, Qcells will no longer be using staffing agency employees in Georgia “at this time.”
As Qcells introduced new supply chains to support its growing solar panel manufacturing facilities in Georgia, the company was recently forced to scale back production while our shipments into the US were delayed in the customs clearance process.
Although our supply chain operations are beginning to normalize, today we shared with our employees that HR actions must be taken to improve operational efficiency until production capacity returns to normal levels.
Stoepker said it expects to bring the furloughed workers back “in the coming weeks and months.” She continued:
Our commitment to building the entire solar supply chain in the United States remains. We will soon be back on track with the full force of our Georgia team delivering American-made energy to communities around the country.
Electrek’s Take
In January 2023, the Seoul-headquartered Qcells announced it would invest more than $2.5 billion to build a solar supply chain in Georgia – the largest-ever investment in clean energy manufacturing in the US to date. That included expanding the Dalton solar factory and building a fully integrated solar supply chain factory in Cartersville, Georgia, that will manufacture solar ingots, wafers, cells, and finished panels.
It’s not quite there yet, because that takes time. In the meantime, it’s being penalized by Customs. The US government under Trump says it’s keen on boosting domestic manufacturing. Why would it work against a company that’s onshoring an entire solar supply chain, including recycling?
Dalton and Cartersville employ nearly 4,000 people. Its total output will reach 8.4 GW of solar production capacity per year, which is equivalent to nearly 46,000 panels per day – enough to power approximately 1.3 million homes annually.
It’s ludicrous that it has been forced to furlough a quarter of its workforce due to the ineptness of the Trump administration’s US Customs policies. This is right up there with the ICE arrests at Hyundai’s plant in Georgia. Bravo.
Read more: Georgia gives US solar panel manufacturing a big boost with a new factory
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The breakthrough EV batteries Toyota says will double driving range and cut charging times are facing another setback. The company is once again delaying plans for a new battery plant in Japan.
Why is Toyota delaying its EV battery plant this time?
Earlier this year, Toyota bought a 280,000-square-meter plot of land in Fukuoka, Japan, where it planned to build a plant to produce the more advanced EV batteries.
A location agreement was expected to be signed by April, but Toyota pushed back construction by several months, blaming slower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles.
The agreement was expected to be finalized this Fall, but that will no longer be the case. According to Nikkei, Toyota is delaying the EV battery plant for the second time. Toyota will review and adjust plans over the next year.
Fukuoka governor, Seitaro Hattori, confirmed the news with reporters on Friday following a meeting with Toyota’s president, Koji Sato. Hattori also shut down claims that Toyota was planning to scrap the battery plant altogether.
Toyota again blamed slowing EV demand for the delay. The decision comes despite Keiji Kaita, president of Toyota’s Carbon Neutral Advanced Engineering Development Center, confirming at the Japan Mobility Show just last week that it’s “sticking on the schedule” to introduce its first solid-state battery-powered EV by 2028.
Last month, Toyota said it aimed to “achieve the world’s first practical use of all-solid-state batteries in BEVs” after securing a partnership with Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. to mass-produce them. It’s also working with Japanese oil giant Idemitsu.
The company recently revealed a solid-state battery pack prototype that it claims can deliver 747 miles (1,200 km) range and 10-minute fast charging, but will we ever see it actually in production?
Electrek’s Take
Toyota has been making empty promises about EV batteries for almost a decade now. It initially planned to introduce solid-state EV batteries in 2020, then pushed it to 2023, then 2026, and now it’s saying it will be around 2028.
Mass production is likely closer to the end of the decade, if Toyota doesn’t delay it again. While it’s blaming the slowing demand, global EV sales are still on the rise. According to Rho Motion, global EV sales topped 2 million for the first time in a single month in September 2025. Through the first nine months of the year, EV sales are up 26% compared to the same period in 2024.
Even with the US ending the $7,500 federal tax credit and other policies designed to promote electric vehicles, global adoption will continue building momentum over the next few years.
Is it a demand issue, or is Toyota just looking for another excuse? With rivals like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai, BMW, and Honda advancing next-gen EV batteries, Toyota will only fall further behind if it continues delaying key projects.
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