Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency.
Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.
China, India and Turkey in particular ramped up purchases to partially offset the 400,000-barrel-per-day fall in Russian crude exports to Europe in January, according to the IEA’s oil market report published Wednesday. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo.
As such, Russian net oil output fell by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, the IEA said. The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.
Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed.
“The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues. Even though Russian production is coming to market, we’re seeing that the revenues that Russia receives from its oil and gas have really come down,” Bosoni said.
“For instance in January, export revenues for Russia were about $13 billion, that’s down 36% from a year ago,” she said. “Russian fiscal receipts from the oil industry is down 48% in the year, so in that sense we can say that the price cap is having its intended effect.”
She also highlighted the growing discrepancy between Russian Urals crude prices and international benchmark Brent crude. The former averaged $49.48 per barrel in January, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, while Brent was trading above $85 a barrel on Thursday.
Importantly, Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price average of $70.10/bbl, so plunging fiscal revenues from oil operations year-on-year are leaving a substantial hole in public finances.
Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.
“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.
However, Bosoni said this was in line with the IEA’s expectations.
“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.
“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”
In its report, the IEA suggested the production cut may be less about retaliation and more an attempt by Moscow to shore up pricing by curbing output rather than continuing to sell at a large discount to countries complying with the G-7 price caps.
Global oil demand
Global oil demand growth is expected to pick up in 2023 after a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2022, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.
The IEA said a pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks highlighted the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth. Oil deliveries are expected to surge by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand hitting a record 101.9 million barrels a day.
The effects of the West’s latest oil embargo and price cap will be a key factor in meeting that demand growth, the IEA report noted.
“So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand,” it said.
“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”
The sun has set on a frantic day of scrutineering at this year’s Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix (FSGP), as teams scramble to qualify for a spot on the starting line tomorrow morning. Electrek FSGP 2025 is shaping up to be one of the event’s most attended ever, thanks to a strong showing of first-time and returning schools. But that also means new and unproven vehicles on the track.
Today, I walked through a couple of bays and talked with a few of the teams able to spare a minute; almost all of them were debuting completely new cars that were years in the making. Building a solar car is no easy feat. It’s not just the engineering and technical know-how that’s often a hurdle for them; it’s more often monetary. However, one of the things that makes this event so special is the camaraderie and collaboration that happen behind the scenes.
Northwestern University is back with a completely new car this season, its eighth since the team’s original inception in 1997 during the GM Sunrayce days. Its motor controller, which is responsible for managing the flow of power from the batteries to the motor, was given to them by the Stanford team. Stanford had extras and could spare one for Northwestern, which needed a replacement. It doesn’t stop there. Two members of the Northwestern team (Shannon and Fiona) told me four other teams helped them with a serious tire replacement around 1 a.m. Wednesday morning, saving them from missing important parts of scrutineering.
This is also an exciting year for the West Virginia team, which is celebrating its 35th anniversary as a solar car team, making them one of the oldest teams on the track. With age comes wisdom though: WV is competing again this year with its single-occupant vehicle, Sunseeker. The team ran into issues after last year’s American Solar Challenge (ASC) cross-country event when the vehicle’s control arm, an important part of the suspension that connects the wheels to the chassis, broke. They tell me this year they’re back with a completely redesigned control arm made of both aluminum and steel. Thank you, Hayley, John, and Izzy, for taking the time to talk.
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We’re also seeing new builds this year from the University of Florida, the University of Puerto Rico, NC State, and UC Irvine. Believe it or not, the latter team has never competed in an American Solar Challenge/Formula Sun Grand Prix. This is their first year. UC Irvine doesn’t expect to be on the starting line tomorrow but hopes to be on the track soon after.
University of Puerto RicoUniversity of California Irvine
On the other hand, we have tried-and-proven cars like my personal favorite, Polytechnique Montréal’s Esteban, which undergoes minor improvements each year. I talked a little bit with this team today, and they told me the car’s motor was dropped, disassembled, and cleaned in preparation for the event. Polytechnique Montréal has passed scrutineering and will appear on the starting line tomorrow.
Polytechnique Montréal
Teams that haven’t wrapped up scrutineering in the last three days can still complete it, though doing so will eat into time on track.
You can learn more about the different classes and the specific rules here.
I’ll continue to post more updates as the event continues!
2025 Electrek FSGP schedule
The 2025 Electrek FSGP will again be held at the National Corvette Museum Motorsports Park in Bowling Green, Kentucky, which, interestingly enough, General Motors occasionally uses for Corvette testing and development. A bit of a full-circle moment being so close to the company that started it all.
The event is open to the public and FREE to attend. Come see the solar car race up close!
Racing starts on July 3 from 10am to 6pm CT and continues through July 5 from 9am to 5pm CT.
Featured image via Cora Kennedy for Electrek FSGP/ASC.
Note: The Formula Sun Grand Prix is not in any way associated or affiliated with the Formula 1 companies, FORMULA 1 racing, or the FIA Formula One World Championship.
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Tesla’s Q2 results are in, and they are way, way down from Q2 of 2024. At the same time, Nissan seems to be in serious trouble and the first-ever all-electric Dodge muscle car is getting recalled because its dumb engine noises are the wrong kind of dumb engine noises. All this and more on today’s deeply troubled episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got an awesome article from Micah Toll about a hitherto unexplored genre of electric lawn equipment, a $440 million mining equipment deal, and a list of incompetent, corrupt, and stupid politicians who voted away their constituents’ futures to line their pockets.
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
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Got news? Let us know! Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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“These ‘OpenAI tokens’ are not OpenAI equity,” OpenAI wrote on X. “We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it.”
The company said that “any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval — we did not approve any transfer,” and warned users to “please be careful.”
Robinhood announced the launch Monday from Cannes, France, as part of a broader product showcase focused on tokenized equities, staking, and a new blockchain infrastructure play. The company’s stock surged above $100 to hit a new all-time high following the news.
“These tokens give retail investors indirect exposure to private markets, opening up access, and are enabled by Robinhood’s ownership stake in a special purpose vehicle,” a Robinhood spokesperson said in response to the OpenAI post.
Read more CNBC tech news
Robinhood offered 5 euros worth of OpenAI and SpaceX tokens to eligible EU users who signed up to trade stock tokens by July 7. The assets are issued under the EU’s looser investor restrictions via Robinhood’s crypto platform.
“This is about expanding access,” said Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s SVP and GM of crypto. “The goal with tokenization is to let anyone participate in this economy.”
The episode highlights the dynamic between crypto platforms seeking to democratize access to financial products and the companies whose names and equity are being represented on-chain
U.S. users cannot access these tokens due to regulatory restrictions.