Beers, mullets and the Daytona 500: Inside Travis Pastrana and Jimmie Johnson’s friendship
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Alyssa RoenigkESPN
Action sports icon Travis Pastrana is talking with a reporter at the Daytona International Speedway media center on Wednesday afternoon when his eyes dart to a guy in a blue fire suit walking his way.
“Jimmie!” Pastrana, 39, says as the man approaches.
“Travis. You made it,” seven-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson, 47, replies. He smiles wide and pulls Pastrana in for a hug. The two men, one a rookie, the other a great, are here with the same goal: to qualify for Sunday’s 65th running of the Daytona 500.
Johnson and Pastrana are two of six drivers hoping to race their way into the 40-car field. Four will make the grid: two on Wednesday night and two on Thursday. Despite their pedigrees, qualifying is not a given for either of them.
Pastrana is returning to the sport for the first time after an inauspicious couple of years in NASCAR’s Xfinity series in 2012-2013. He’s never driven the NextGen car NASCAR debuted last year. Johnson, who retired from the sport in 2020, is returning as a team owner of the rebranded Legacy Motor Club with fellow seven-time champ Richard Petty. He’s driven the NextGen car once, about a month ago, but never on the banked turns of Daytona’s infamous tri-oval. There is more excitement around this year’s qualifying field, which also includes IndyCar driver Conor Daly and current NASCAR Truck Series champion Zane Smith, than perhaps ever before.
“This is truly an honor, man,” Pastrana says. He’s dressed in a gray-and-white-flannel fire suit and black hat. “This is too fun.”
A media scrum gathers to watch their reunion. It’s been a few years since the two men were in the same place, and with their jam-packed schedules this week, they don’t know if they’ll have an opportunity for a private moment. So they ask about each other’s wives and daughters. “If I qualify, they get here Sunday,” Pastrana says. “My girls have a cheerleading competition Saturday night.” Johnson says his family arrives a day earlier. “Evie has a horse competition in Tampa on Friday,” he says.
“Are Jimmie and Travis friends?” one journalist asks the group. They shrug. “That would be cool.”
It would be more than cool. It would be the setup for the greatest motorsports buddy film of all time. Forget Cal Naughton Jr. and Ricky Bobby in “Talladega Nights.” Pastrana, a motocross racer turned freestyle star turned rally champion, and Johnson, a motocross and truck racer turned stock car driver with 83 wins in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series, both attempting to qualify for Daytona would be part road movie, part action bromance, with a 20-year friendship at its core. Call it “Daytona Days,” the kind of movie that’s laced with humor, conflict, the self-discovery that arises from loss and failure and two of the greatest American motorsports athletes attempting to qualify for the Great American Race.
That story might read something like this:
EXT. STADE DE FRANCE, PARIS — DAY (FLASHBACK)
The first time Johnson and Pastrana really get to know each other is when they sign on to represent Team USA at the 2006 Race of Champions, an international event that pits drivers from various disciplines in head-to-head racing. Johnson is intrigued by his teammate, but he isn’t certain Pastrana has the driving experience or patience to help him bring home his second win. “I felt like we had a good chance, but I also felt like the guy was in full ‘send-it mode’ all the time,” Johnson says. “We were either going to win or it was going to be something everybody talked about for years to come.”
But a week before the race, Johnson calls Pastrana with bad news: He broke his left wrist. He’d won his first Sprint Cup championship a week earlier and after five days of sponsor and media requirements, he was ready to celebrate. He flew to Florida to play in a friend’s charity golf tournament and the drinking started on the flight down. It continued on the course until around 2 p.m., when Johnson climbed on top of his golf cart while a friend drove, perhaps too fast, and took a sharp turn. He fell. “I was so embarrassed that I couldn’t stick the landing surfing a golf cart,” Johnson says. “I hung TP out to dry.”
When efforts to replace Johnson fail, Pastrana gets permission to race the event solo, the only driver ever to do so. Johnson reshuffles his priorities to become Team USA’s head cheerleader and, “make sure we threw the best parties,” he says.
Four thousand miles from home and with few commitments outside of the races, the men begin to realize they’re more alike than they thought. Like how, at 4, they both received their first dirt bikes: a red and white Yamaha PW 50 for Pastrana and a 1979 yellow Yamaha JR50 for Johnson. Or their modest, blue-collar beginnings and how they each raced trophy trucks in the Baja 1000 but crashed out in spectacular fashion.
Pastrana had been a fan of Johnson’s for as long as he could remember. Johnson, like so many motocross fans, once believed Pastrana, a champion by age 16, was destined to be the next great Supercross star. “Then I started hearing about his freestyle motocross interest and the inner racer in me was like, ‘What is this guy doing?'” Johnson says. “He’s supposed to be the greatest talent the sport’s seen. I wasn’t a hater. I just didn’t get it.”
In Paris, Johnson starts to understand. He’s talking to Pastrana about tactics during a break between races when a track official interrupts. “He says, ‘Travis, you’re up,'” Johnson says. He turns to see the track crew has set up a metal ramp on the floor of the arena. In addition to racing every round, Pastrana is also the entertainment.
Pastrana jumps on his bike, hits the ramp and does a backflip. He comes back, hops off and picks up the conversation with Johnson right where he left it. “I watched him switch from goofy Travis to the guy who can go and nail something that can kill him, back to goofy Travis. I would be s—-ing my pants worrying about that backflip. On top of it, he had to focus and race again. His brain works so differently.”
Over two days of racing, Johnson sees Pastrana as a student and competitor. No one considers him to be a threat. But he takes Team USA all the way to the final, where he finishes second to the Finnish team. Johnson loses his voice cheering from the stands. While he watches, it sinks in why a rider with Pastrana’s talent would walk away from racing full-time. The guy he watched land a backflip in the middle of a two-day car race would never be happy buckled down by one sport.
“When I got to know Travis and truly understand his DNA, I realized he was destined to be a freestyle, showman-type person his whole life,” Johnson says. “He wasn’t a racer who quit. He was a showman who was trying to make it work in racing.”
At the bar and team parties, Pastrana sees Johnson as more than the buttoned-up phenom who always says and does the right things. “It was really cool to have my hero cheering me on,” Pastrana says. “I got to see that Jimmie’s so much fun. From that point, we became good friends and had mutual respect.” He saw No. 48 let his hair down, but only behind closed doors.
“I surprised Travis with how relaxed I could be and how much fun I could have. But because of my journey, I couldn’t do that publicly,” Johnson says. “In motorsport, we’re so concerned about chasing the corporate dollar, self-promotion, taking the high road. But that came at a price. Travis is one of the early thinkers who was listening to his heart and said, ‘That’s not my lane.'”
INT. DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY — WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15, 3:30 P.M.
Pastrana steps onto a red carpet lined with broadcast cameras as rows of journalists raise their tripods to accommodate his height. At 6-foot-2, he is one of the tallest drivers in the field. At each stop, they ask three main questions:
Why Daytona? Why now? Can you make Sunday’s race?
Pastrana answers with consistent details and varying degrees of flair. When he drops into storytelling mode, he does not use an inside voice. He moves as if each memory is stored in a different part of his body and a jolt of an elbow or a nod of his head might knock it loose and send it careening out of his mouth. “I grew up watching the 500 with my family,” he says. “It was a holiday in my house. Racing the 500 is a bucket-list item. It’s my childhood dream.”
But he doesn’t have to do this, set himself up for public failure by returning to a sport the public watched him fail at a decade ago. But Pastrana is not in Daytona to prove anything to anyone. He’s here for the same reason he wanted to land the first double backflip on a dirt bike when no one believed it was possible: because he believes he can. Because he would never forgive himself if he didn’t try. Because this might be his best and only chance.
Over the past few years, Pastrana’s had more seat time and success than ever in his driving career. He’s gotten better on pavement, has sponsors who are willing to support his dream and is ready for the opportunity. And there’s something else pulling him toward this moment: the life he wants after it. “My biggest focus after Daytona is to be the best dad and husband I can,” he says. “And that’s going to take me stepping back from at least some of the racing I’ve been doing.”
Last year, Pastrana suffered one of the worst injuries and two of the toughest losses of his life. In September, his longtime friend Ron Meredith died after a crash at a motocross track. Four months later, Ken Block, his close friend, mentor and rally competitor, died in a snowmobile accident. “So much of what I’m able to do is because Ken built a sport around having fun sliding cars,” Pastrana says. “When he and Ron died, I realized life is fragile. I love everything I do, but I need to spend time with my kids because tomorrow’s not guaranteed.”
As for his goals with 23XI, the Michael Jordan-owned team that’s giving him this opportunity, “First, my goal is to qualify. That’s a win,” Pastrana says on the red carpet. “This is the only event I’ve ever entered without the expectation to win. I want to be part of Sunday’s grid, race confidently and smart, get to the end of the race and not cause drama on the track.”
“Oh no. Did I hear Pastrana say, ‘drama?'” NASCAR champ Brad Keselowski says from the other end of the carpet, loud enough for the room to hear.
“I said, ‘NO drama,'” Pastrana says.
A few minutes later, Pastrana walks by Johnson, who’s giving a live TV interview. “It’s surreal to say the least,” Johnson says of his return to NASCAR. He speaks with the calm, measured focus and precision of a politician, pausing on key moments to allow the listener space to feel their impact or laugh at a well-timed joke. The announcers lean in to hear him. “Just when you guys thought you were going to get rid of me,” he says, “I’m back.”
Off-camera, Pastrana catches Johnson’s eye and starts jumping up and down, waving his arms, making faces, trying to get him to break.
But like any great NASCAR driver, Johnson rarely breaks.
INT. PASTRANA’S HOUSE — NIGHT (FLASHBACK)
Pastrana has gathered an A-list crew of action and motorsports stars at his home for a weekend of debauchery he dubs the “Nitrothon.” Two-man teams of NASCAR, IndyCar, Monster Truck and action sports athletes are competing for bragging rights in go-kart driving, truck racing and, of course, drinking. “People are flipping cars, jumping rental cars into the foam pit,” Pastrana says. “It was the rowdiest party ever.”
Johnson is amidst an unprecedented five in a row Cup Series championship run, in the middle of NASCAR’s 2008 playoffs, and his schedule this weekend is tight. He has less than 24 hours between testing and a TV appearance in New York City. No one really believes he will show. No one but Pastrana, that is.
Johnson is a day late to the party when he arrives at Fuji, a Japanese steakhouse not far from Pastrana’s home in Davidsonville, Maryland. “I walk into the restaurant, and the guys tell me to close my eyes and open my mouth,” Johnson says. “They put an uncooked egg in my mouth and told me I had to eat it.” He does.
After dinner, the group returns to Pastrana’s house for the “Barstool Olympics,” a triple crown of beer pong, foosball and the arcade game Big Buck Hunter. Pastrana loves the game so much he worked a tournament into his bachelor party and competed in the Big Buck Hunter World Championship in Chicago, where he finished eighth. “There were also bonus points for the team that stayed up the latest,” says Johnson, whose flight to New York leaves at 5 a.m.
Right on script, the competition comes down to two: Team NASCAR vs. Team X Games. “I beat Travis in a heads-up shootout on Big Buck Hunter and he loses his mind,” Johnson says.
“It was one of the most devastating moments of my life,” Pastrana says. Win secured, Johnson heads to his hotel for a few hours of sleep before his flight to New York City. Right?
“No way. Now we’re going for the bonus points,” he says. “And guys are dropping like flies. Travis talked a big game, but I’ve noticed he’s not the strongest in the drinking department.”
Sure enough, around 2 a.m., Johnson realizes Pastrana has disappeared.
He gathers a few of the guys and they embark on another round of Big Buck Hunter, only this time, Pastrana is the hunted. They find a sledgehammer, a leaf blower and a pair of boxing gloves in the garage and return to the house. But Pastrana has locked his bedroom door.
One guy sledgehammers the door open, another blows the comforter off Pastrana. Johnson puts on the boxing glove. When Pastrana sits up?
“I punch him in the face,” Johnson says.
EXT. DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY — WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15, 6:30 P.M.
Two hours before qualifying, Johnson is back at his bus relaxing and getting centered, enjoying a rare quiet moment alone. Pastrana is walking the track’s front stretch, the only driver to do so. Maybe it’s his motocross and rally background. “Track walks aren’t really a thing in NASCAR,” Johnson says. Pastrana wants to stand on the track, feel its steep curves and find a visual cue for his turn in point for pit lane.
“See that yellow Sunoco sign?” he asks. “If I’m behind other cars, there might be tire smoke, the sun might be setting and I can’t see the yellow line. I know that sign is 20 yards in front of the commitment line, so if I don’t see my lights by then, I know I’m going too fast or too slow. It gives me a reference.” He’s only driven the No. 67 car on this track in an iRacing simulator.
He stops, looks back toward the 31-degree bank of Turn 4. “You see where the bank drops down?” he says. “Right where that last line is, you’re going to start to get tight, so you need to turn a little sharper before the white line, especially if you’re three wide and heaven forbid, four wide on Sunday. I’m going to shorten that up, run where my tires are on that white line.”
He realizes he’s already talking about Sunday. “I have to get there first,” he says.
Pastrana’s had opposing experiences this week. Most drivers have been supportive, offering their time and tips about driving this track. Many fans have told him they’re thrilled he’s here, bringing new energy, new sponsors and new supporters.
Then there’s the Twitter trolls. “I know not everyone understands why I’m here or knows my background,” Pastrana says. “They just see me as a TV star and stuntman.” They don’t see the student who sat alone outside of his RV this morning reading the nearly 200-page document Toyota provided to him on drafting techniques — for the second time. Or know that he’s self-funding any of the damage he causes to the car. (Or the truck. He’s also racing NASCAR’s Truck Series race on Friday.)
“He could have said, ‘I want to try to qualify and race the 500 to check a box,'” 23XI president Steve Lauletta says. “It’s the farthest from that with him. He came to the shop four times to study, drive the simulator. He worked hard to be prepared to give it his best shot. What we’re trying to do is different and to have somebody who’s been as innovative in his career as Travis has, it’s been a good fit.
“And yes, of course, Michael knows who Travis is,” Lauletta says of Jordan. “Everybody knows who he is.”
INT./EXT. AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY — NIGHT (FLASHBACK)
Pastrana is on his first date with his future wife, skateboard star Lyn-Z Adams Hawkins, when he asks Johnson a question that’s been burning a hole in his brain.
They’re at the 2009 Pepsi 500 in Fontana, California, at Johnson’s invitation. When he wins, Johnson invites them back to his new rig to celebrate with his wife and team. “We were already a few drinks in,” Pastrana says.
“I remember he was trying to shotgun beers, poking the hole with his thumb,” Johnson says. “I didn’t want my carpet smelling like beer or for him to bleed out in my new bus. I was like, ‘Dude, let’s go outside.'”
Outside and free to thumb-punch as many beers as he wants, Pastrana decides this is his chance. He has this dream he’s been thinking about forever, but saying it out loud means committing to it.
“What would it take to race the Daytona 500?” he asks Johnson.
The two men sit down. Pastrana sobers up immediately.
“He said, ‘You probably have the driving skill right now,'” Pastrana says. “He broke down what NASCAR was and what it would take to be successful.”
“I remember the conversation,” Johnson says. “Daytona is its own animal. I told him the commitment it takes to run three-cars wide in the big pack at 200 miles an hour is a no-brainer for him. I felt like it would be a great experience and one that he could grow into and have a great showing come race day.”
“It was a pretty good heart-to-heart,” Pastrana says. “I don’t know if he knew it at the time, but that conversation set everything into motion.”
EXT. PIT LANE — WEDNESDAY, FEB. 16, 8:15 P.M.
Johnson’s and Pastrana’s teams push their cars into place on the track 15 minutes before qualifying begins. A lucky draw sees them next to each other in line. Johnson looks calm as he talks with his crew chief and poses for photos. Pastrana looks like a tall ball of nervous energy. They walk toward each other and meet in the middle.
“Jimmie, tell me the truth,” Pastrana says. “Am I just going to spin out in the first corner and look like an idiot?” Pastrana is trying to figure out what to do about his steering wheel. He’s tall and the car’s frame is tight, so he chose to use a 13-inch wheel, which allows more space for his long arms and legs. He’s heard from older drivers that 15- and 17-inch wheels are smoother. The younger drivers have quick hands and use 13s. But he wants to be smooth. He’s worried he made the wrong call.
“You’ll be fine for qualifying,” Johnson says. “Don’t think about it right now. Do not worry about it. But after you qualify, get a bigger wheel for Sunday.”
In Daytona, Johnson and Pastrana are competitors. But that doesn’t stop Johnson from wanting to help his friend. His racing goals have evolved, too. Growing Legacy Racing Club is his new challenge. He is also committing to fewer races, but he knows how much he can help his team, on and off the track, by making Sunday’s race. Becoming a team owner, he hopes, will allow him a consistent schedule and, “to be more in sync with my family,” Johnson says.
“Travis has been such a great friend over the years and I know how much this means to him,” he says. “There’s a feel-good energy that comes with having him here. As I get older, meaningful moments have a lot more weight to them and our friendship is making the 500 really special.”
They return to their cars, pull on their helmets and climb in.
EXT. NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY — DAY (FLASHBACK)
Pastrana and Johnson sit on the wall at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Louden. Pastrana is between heats at a 2012 Global RallyCross race he will eventually win, and Johnson is drawing on the white speedway wall like Steve Kornacki breaking down NFL playoff scenarios.
“At Louden, he was asking me how to run the line because it’s a real narrow sweet spot,” Johnson says. “I pulled out a Sharpie and was showing him the line and explaining certain turn in marks. I was so happy to have him around.”
NASCAR is also in town. After Johnson told him he had what it takes to race the Daytona 500, Pastrana put together a program that would allow him to give his NASCAR ambitions a try and later in the day, he will line up for his fifth race in the Xfinity series. Johnson will contest the Cup race the next day.
Throughout the season, Pastrana leans on Johnson for tactical advice and help navigating his new sport.
“I remember having intense conversations with Travis around driving technique at various tracks that year,” Johnson says.
Before Pastrana’s debut in the series, Johnson even films a video spoofing his role as Pastrana’s NASCAR mentor. In it, he dons a mullet wig and teaches Pastrana the “five steps to becoming a NASCAR champion.” At the end, he picks up gardening shears and gives Pastrana a matching haircut.
NASCAR proves a steep learning curve for Pastrana. He has some success in his two seasons, including four top-10 finishes in 2013 and a pole at Talladega, but he is also largely funding his efforts. He becomes a dad that season and starts to weigh his NASCAR dreams against his daughter’s college fund. He never wins a race and leaves the sport after 2013. “NASCAR chewed me up and spit me out,” Pastrana says. Johnson sees it differently.
“I told Travis early on, ‘Find a situation where you can have five years to learn,'” Johnson says. “I know that’s a big ask of a team and a sponsor. But it took me five years to understand the tracks, the cars, the setups, where the sweet spot is of a car, how to drive it. I advised him not to front-load his contract with expectations. The more races he ran, the better he got. I wish he had a chance to make it to that five-year mark because I think he could have had his NASCAR dream come true.”
EXT. PIT LANE — WEDNESDAY, FEB. 16, 8:45 P.M.
“No. 48! Jimmie Johnson!” On cue, Johnson peels out of pit road. When Johnson crosses the finish, he is the fastest driver of the Open teams, with only Pastrana and Chevy’s Austin Hill, who races full-time in the Xfinity Series and part-time in the Cup, to go.
The two fastest Open teams will qualify tonight on speed. Johnson’s unsure if his time will hold up. It didn’t feel like he got everything out of the car. When Pastrana crosses, he hears he’s .008 behind Johnson’s time, which means Johnson has qualified for Sunday’s race. Pastrana doesn’t believe his time is good enough to hold off Hill.
“Wow. Going around a corner at 180 mph with no suspension and your teeth chattering, you don’t feel that in the simulator,” Pastrana says after his lap. “But I shifted up early from second to third. I double pulled on the back stretch because I didn’t let off enough to shift. I went three-feet wide on that exit off turn 4. All of that adds up to a car length and a half, so I didn’t think it was enough.”
But it is. Against all odds, Johnson and Pastrana are the two fastest of the Open teams. They have both qualified for the 2023 Daytona 500.
Johnson later admits to feeling relieved, but in the moment the two-time Daytona champion appears cool. Pastrana leaps from his car with his widest smile of the weekend. He hugs everyone within reach who will let him. Team members, photographers, track officials.
After many, many interviews, he runs toward pit lane and jumps the wall, where his family and friends are gathered. There’s his dad, Robert, who taught him to ride a dirt bike and drive just about anything. “My phone was blowing up from friends and family who watched it all on TV,” Robert says. “They said they’ve never seen Travis look happier.” Lyn-Z agrees. “You could feel his happiness through the photos,” she says. There are the sponsors who believed in him and a few friends from home. And there’s Lucy Block and two of her three children, Kira and Mika. When Pastrana sees them, his eyes fill with tears. “Thank you for being here,” he says as he hugs Lucy.
“Ken would have been here,” she says.
“He would have,” Pastrana says. “But he also would have told me I’m an idiot for trying to race a car I’d never driven.”
INT. A FLORIDA HOSPITAL — DAY (FLASHBACK)
Sixteen years after Pastrana raced alone for Team USA, he and Johnson are trying again at the 2022 Race of Champions in Pitea, Sweden. But this time, it’s Pastrana who has bad news.
He broke his back and his hips and has extensive internal bleeding after a BASE jumping accident in Florida. “I was in intensive care for a week,” Pastrana says. He’ll require the use of a catheter for four months. “I was just trying to survive.”
A day after the accident, he texts with Johnson. “He was high as a kite,” Johnson says. “First and foremost, I told him I was just thankful he was OK.” The two speak a couple times before Johnson flies to Sweden to team up with replacement driver Colton Herta. The races largely take place on snow and ice. Johnson and Herta, who both grew up in California, have little experience on either. “Colton and I decided if we weren’t going to win on track, we were going to win in the bar,” Johnson says. “We damn near won the whole thing on the track, and we also won in the bar.” Once again, Team USA finishes second.
Johnson doesn’t believe that’s the end of his Race of Champions story. “I feel like my journey is incomplete,” he says, “and it will only be complete when I get to race it with TP.”
INT. TRAVIS PASTRANA’S RV — FRIDAY, FEB. 17, 10 A.M.
Pastrana has just returned from a morning workout at the drivers’ gym, where, atop a spin bike and an elliptical machine, he and Johnson talked race tactics for Sunday. Now he’s having a coffee with Lyn-Z, who flew in last night after coaching cheerleading practice.
Pastrana says he remembers the day in December when he found out Johnson was returning to NASCAR and attempting to qualify for Daytona as an Open team, making Pastrana’s chances slimmer than they already were. “I texted him the middle finger emoji,” Pastrana says, “and wrote, ‘f— you.’ He texted back three laughing faces.”
At the time, Pastrana saw his friend as a roadblock. This morning, 48 hours before they take the green flag at the Daytona 500 together, Johnson’s return feels more like a gift. “We’ve never been in a race together,” Pastrana says. “To start side by side with the seven-time champ and have a chance to run with him is extremely beneficial for me.”
Last night in the 60-lap duel races, Pastrana had his first chance to race the No. 67 in traffic. He played it safe and hung near the back, but he wasn’t able to avoid a crash up front and suffered damage to his car. It’ll cost him some money. But it was a good reminder that, even when you play it safe, nothing is guaranteed. Sunday night after the race, he’ll drive with his family to Orlando, Florida, where his girls have a cheer competition next week. Johnson will drive to Sebring for two days of testing for the 24 Hours of Le Mans, then fly home to Charlotte, North Carolina, and drive his daughters to school.
“”We’re playing with house money from here. Both of us will savor the experience,” Johnson says. “That moment before the green flag drops, we’re both going to soak it in the best we can.”
Will Ohio State claim the Big Ten title in 2025, or will Penn State finally break through in 2025?
The college football season is less than a month away, and it looks like these two perennial Big Ten powers will have the best shot to not just win the conference, but the College Football Playoff, too. But it won’t be without stiff competition from Oregon, which won the league last season.
In addition to the Big Ten’s playoff race, eyes will be on UCLA and Nico Iamaleava following his exit from Tennessee.
We get you caught up on the Big Ten by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon. Defending national champion Ohio State always will be penciled into the CFP field, even after losing 14 NFL draft picks, tied for the most in team history. The Buckeyes have wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, considered the nation’s best overall player, as well as safety Caleb Downs, arguably the No. 1 defender. But it’s Penn State, not Ohio State, that enters the fall as possibly the Big Ten’s strongest national contender. The Nittany Lions replace less than the other three teams that reached last year’s CFP semifinals, as they return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and several standout defenders. Oregon is amazingly being overlooked a bit after winning the Big Ten in its debut season and becoming the only FBS team to finish the regular season at 13-0. The Ducks lost 10 NFL draft picks but will return a talented defensive front seven and add several top transfers and recruits.
In the running: Illinois, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois returns the core players from its first 10-win team since 2001, and it could become this year’s version of Indiana, especially with more explosiveness on offense and stout line play. If the Illini can navigate September road tests against Duke and, yes, Indiana, look out for Bret Bielema’s squad. Michigan hopes to rejoin the CFP mix after its strong finish to last season, leaning on a talented defensive front and possibly incoming freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Indiana largely will be counted out, but not here, as the team retained several All-Big Ten players from the historic CFP team, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen from the portal. Iowa occasionally found itself in the four-team CFP mix and could take a leap if transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski elevates the offense.
Long shots: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota, Washington. Nebraska has had a tough time merely making bowl appearances in the Big Ten, but could be primed for a jump in wins, as quarterback Dylan Raiola returns to lead the squad. The Huskers are also helped by a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon, and has no true road game until Oct. 11. USC is still seeking its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley and could enter the mix if it plays better away from home, where it dropped four games by seven points or fewer. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is also seeking better results in one-score games and told ESPN that the CFP “isn’t a pipe dream.” Washington is only two years removed from a national title game appearance and brings back a team with upside, particularly dynamic young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. — Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s Big Ten conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Three freshmen to watch
Malik Washington, QB, Maryland
Washington already arrived on campus facing immense expectations after the four-star Maryland native opted to stay home and attend the school he grew up idolizing. His spring game showing — he went 12-of-18 for 170 yards and two touchdowns — did little to dispel any optimism he could become the face of a program resurrection in College Park. At 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, Washington is a true dual-threat with arm talent and mobility. His accuracy and ability to change arm angles should mesh well in an RPO scheme. Carving out a path to contention in the Big Ten won’t be easy, and he’ll need to beat out UCLA transfer Justyn Martin for the starting gig, but Washington has game-changing tools.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
No freshman in college football faces more scrutiny than Underwood, who arrived in Ann Arbor as the highest-ranked player in the class and signed a multi-million dollar NIL deal after a lengthy pursuit by his hometown Wolverines. Underwood’s spring was more solid than exceptional, and he went 12-of-26 for 187 yards in the spring game, which included an 88-yard touchdown, but also a pair of sacks and several overthrows. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t named a starter and has been consistent that Underwood is battling with Jadyn Davis, Jake Garcia, and Mikey Keene for the role, but Michigan’s offense has its highest ceiling with Underwood at the helm. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Underwood combines raw speed, clean footwork in the pocket and natural arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand and he’s adept at keeping plays alive on the run to move the chains. It might require some patience — which isn’t easy in Ann Arbor — but Underwood has the ceiling of a dominant, Heisman Trophy-contending signal caller.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon
Moore arrived in Eugene as the highest-graded high school receiver ESPN has evaluated since 2020, then dazzled Oregon teammates and coaches alike during the Ducks’ spring practices. Moore won the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game MVP and totaled more than 4,000 receiving yards at famed Duncanville High School in Texas. He’s also a decorated track star, and his blazing speed and savvy route-running ability should find a home in Oregon’s offense on Day 1. Moore’s offseason work has only helped solidify the high expectations. He could quickly become a reliable option for new starting QB Dante Moore, and his role in the offense only becomes more important with Evan Stewart set to miss at least a significant portion of the season with a knee injury. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Cal | Top 100 rank: 4
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: Mendoza was an incredible find for Cal, an under-the-radar three-star out of Miami who was committed to Yale until the Bears extended a late offer. He developed into one of the best young QBs in the country after taking over as Cal’s starter for their final eight games in 2023. As a sophomore, he was the ACC’s third-leading passer with 3,004 passing yards and raised his completion percentage to 69% (second in the ACC) while scoring 18 total touchdowns with just six interceptions over 11 games. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 41 sacks last season but overcame inconsistent protection to have a really productive year with strong performances against Miami and Auburn and a 98-yard game-winning drive to beat rival Stanford. Mendoza is viewed as one of the most promising QBs in the country by several personnel departments. — Olson
Scout’s take: Mendoza is one of the most undervalued players at the position in college football. He’s 6-5, a great athlete and is tough as nails. He was sacked a lot and kept getting back up. Mendoza can make all of the throws and is a sneaky, crafty athlete. — Luginbill
What he brings to Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti values production over potential when it comes to recruiting the transfer portal. He’s getting plenty of both with Mendoza as his successor to Kurtis Rourke. Mendoza is looking to take his game to another level in the Big Ten and help make the Hoosiers a contender again in Year 2 under Cignetti. — Olson
Transferring from: Tennessee | Top 100 rank: 5
HT: 6-6 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt freshman
Background: Well, this was a stunner. While there were rumors of discontent in late December at the winter portal deadline, it was still shocking that Iamaleava left a College Football Playoff team and hit the open market during the spring in search of a better deal than the one he had with the Vols. Tennessee invested a ton of money in Iamaleava and even successfully fought off an attempted NCAA investigation into the seven-figure agreement he struck with the Vols as a five-star high school recruit. He had an awful lot of hype to live up to as a redshirt freshman starter in 2024 and put together a solid year, throwing for 2,616 yards, completing 64% of his passes with 22 total touchdowns and nine turnovers while leading the Vols to 10 wins. Iamaleava closed out the season with a rough CFP performance, completing 14 of 31 passes for 104 yards in a 42-17 first-round loss to eventual national champ Ohio State, and still has plenty of room to grow. But it is exceptionally rare that a QB of his caliber becomes available in the spring. Iamaleava is looking to keep progressing and play up to his first-round potential. — Olson
Scout’s take: There is no debating that Iamaleava is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in college football. He was highly coveted out of high school because of his stature, arm strength and athletic ability. During his one season as a starter, he showed flashes of brilliance but also mediocrity. He threw 19 touchdowns, but four of the nine touchdowns in SEC play came against Vanderbilt and seven came against Chattanooga and UTEP. Consistency is where he has to improve. He has the arm strength and overall talent to be a terrific vertical deep ball passer, but he has been wildly inconsistent in terms of accuracy in that regard. There are still tools here, but he will likely be playing on a team that is less talented than the one he just left. Meaning: He’s going to have to be better than he has ever been. — Luginbill
What he brings to UCLA: This ordeal might have played out perfectly for the Bruins. They’re getting a potential top-10 quarterback on a reduced contract who will generate a lot of attention for this program entering coach DeShaun Foster’s second year. Iamaleava’s arrival will cost them App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar, who reentered the portal after going through spring practice with the Bruins and landed at Tennessee. The challenge going forward for Iamaleava is learning OC Tino Sunseri’s system and winning over his new teammates this summer, but he’ll certainly be motivated after his split with the Vols. — Olson
Transferring from: Nevada | Top 100 rank: 7
HT: 6-8 | WT: 309 | Class: Redshirt junior
Background: The massive pass protector was a three-year starter for the Wolf Pack primarily at left tackle and brings invaluable experience with more than 2,300 career snaps. He did not surrender a sack during his junior season and picked up honorable mention All-Mountain West recognition. World is viewed as a potential first-round draft pick by NFL scouts entering his final season of eligibility and is making the move up to the Power 4 to prove he merits that praise. — Olson
Scout’s take: World is a huge presence with very good pass pro skills at left tackle. He has added 42 pounds since high school and retained his initial quickness and flexibility. World does a terrific job riding defenders past the pocket with his length and mobility. He plays balanced with good feet and shows his basketball background mirroring defenders in his set. He’s not as effective versus the run. World’s pad level can get high, but he’s still very productive at washing defenders down to open run lanes. — Tucker
What he brings to Oregon: Offensive tackle was one of the critical portal needs for the Ducks. Ajani Cornelius graduating and Josh Conerly Jr. potentially going pro made adding starter-caliber tackles a priority for Oregon, and it was able to hold off Texas A&M and Nebraska in this battle. A one-year addition makes sense to help give the Ducks’ young big men more time to develop. — Olson
Numbers to know
4: The number of seasons it has been since defending national champion Ohio State won the Big Ten title, the Buckeyes’ longest drought since a six-year stretch from 1987 to 1992.
8: The number of Big Ten quarterbacks who were in the top 25 of the ESPN300 recruit rankings at some point in their high school careers, the most of any conference. Those QBs are Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (No. 1 in 2025), Oregon’s Dante Moore (No. 2 in 2023), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 9 in 2024), Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair (No. 10 in 2025), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (No. 11 in 2024), USC’s Sam Huard (No. 16 in 2021), UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (No. 23 in 2023) and Michigan’s Jake Garcia (No. 24 in 2021).
+200: Ohio State’s odds of winning the Big Ten championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for the Big Ten favorite in at least 15 years. Penn State is the second choice at +225. — ESPN Research
Power rankings
0:52
Should Penn State be the No. 1-ranked team in the country?
Heather Dinich joins “Get Up” to share why she believes Penn State should be the top-ranked team going into the new college football season.
If not this year, then when for the Nittany Lions? As other Big Ten powers sift through QB questions, Penn State features three-year starter Drew Allar, who has the makeup to be a first-round pick next spring. Throw in a dominant running game spearheaded by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a talented defense now led by veteran coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to win the Big Ten — and even the national title.
The defending national champions lost a record-tying 14 players to the NFL and must fill significant holes at quarterback and along both the offensive and defensive lines. But Ohio State also has arguably the nation’s best two players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, other standouts such as wide receiver Carnell Tate and linebacker Sonny Styles, and notable transfers such as tight end Max Klare (Purdue). Never count out the Buckeyes.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dillion Gabriel, one of the most prolific QBs in recent college football history, is gone, leaving tantalizing former five-star recruit Dante Moore in charge of the Ducks’ offense. A season-ending knee injury to star wide receiver Evan Stewart stings. But Oregon still has enough on either side of the ball to defend its Big Ten title.
After winning 10 games for the first time since the Big Ten championship season of 2001, Illinois has its sights on the team’s first CFP appearance. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and outside linebacker Gabe Jacas are part of an impressive returning group that must navigate tricky September trips to Duke and Indiana before a home showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 11.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has already been turning heads in Ann Arbor with his work ethic and dual-threat abilities. The Wolverines have the running game and figure to be stout defensively once again. If Underwood can supercharge the passing attack, the Wolverines could be back in contention for a playoff spot.
How will Coach Cig (Curt Cignetti) follow a historic debut that featured a team-record 11 wins and a once unthinkable CFP appearance? Indiana retained All-Big Ten players on both sides of the ball, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen in the portal. The key for IU will be better line-of-scrimmage play in its biggest games, as the schedule doesn’t look nearly as favorable.
7. The Hawkeyes are banking that transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who won an FCS national title, can jumpstart a perennially moribund Iowa offense. Iowa’s offensive line, led by standout center Logan Jones and tackle Gennings Dunker, should be elite. If the defensive-minded Hawkeyes can finally find a way to put up points, they could be dangerous.
After reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is targeting much bigger goals under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The Huskers have a favorable schedule with no true road games until Oct. 11 and no Ohio State or Oregon. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has had a full offseason to develop under playcaller Dana Holgorsen.
9. USC Trojans
The Trojans lost five games by one score last season, tied for the most in the FBS. Playing from ahead will be critical for the Trojans, who trailed in 11 of their 13 games in 2024. The defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn took a step forward last season, but the Trojans need more improvement — they still allowed 5.83 yards per play (15th in the Big Ten).
Could Minnesota be a wild-card CFP contender? “This isn’t a pipe dream,” coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN, pointing to a record in one-score games that, if improved, could elevate the team’s outlook. Minnesota has a solid defense, a potential two-way star in Koi Perich and will lean on first-year starting quarterback Drake Lindsey for a spark.
The Huskies are excited about the potential of sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr., who passed for 374 yards and totaled five touchdowns in Washington’s bowl loss to Louisville. If Williams builds off that performance, the Huskies could surprise offensively, with 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman flanking him in the backfield.
12. After a tough first year and a relatively quiet offseason, Michigan State could creep up on teams during coach Jonathan Smith’s second year. The Spartans made some key portal additions at offensive line and wide receiver to help second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Areas to improve include takeaways and better play on the road, where MSU was 1-4 in 2024.
13. Athan Kaliakmanis is back after becoming the first Rutgers QB since 2015 to pass for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Defensively, the pass rush could be a strength with the arrivals of transfers Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who were both all-conference performers. Rutgers ranked just 84th nationally with only 22 total sacks last season.
14. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have gone all-in on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Tennessee transfer whose return home could signal a shift in how UCLA will operate under coach DeShaun Foster. If Iamaleava meets expectations and a defense with many new players and coaches shines, UCLA could rise in these rankings after a season where it had wins against Iowa and Nebraska.
15. Injuries robbed any chance Wisconsin had of fielding a viable offense in 2024, as the Badgers ranked 102nd nationally in passing (197 yards per game) on the way to losing their final five games. The onus is now on transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and new coordinator Jeff Grimes to turn that around.
16. After bottoming out on offense in 2024, Northwestern had its most successful winter transfer portal haul, which included quarterback Preston Stone (SMU), wide receiver Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and several linemen. The Wildcats face a huge opener at Tulane and several tricky Big Ten road contests, but bowl eligibility should be within sight.
Coach Mike Locksley recently admitted he lost the locker room in 2024 over which players to pay, as the Terrapins stumbled to a 1-8 Big Ten record. Maryland doesn’t have much coming back offensively, either, though keeping four-star QB Malik Washington in state has given the Terrapins an intriguing player to rebuild around. The true freshman is battling UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and redshirt freshman Khristian Martin for the starting QB job.
18. Barry Odom is back in the Power 4 following an impressive run at UNLV. He takes over a Purdue team with almost an entirely new roster and a schedule that includes Notre Dame and Ohio State. Moderate improvement is the goal for Odom, whose track record on defense and with personnel suggests better days are ahead. — Rittenberg, Trotter
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Alden Gonzalez
Max Muncy returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ lineup on Monday, Aaron Judge was back in the New York Yankees‘ batting order on Tuesday, and with that, the two teams that met in last year’s World Series — and had been underperforming to varying degrees in recent weeks — received valuable reinforcements for the stretch run.
They’re far from alone.
Now that the trade deadline has passed and less than two months remain in the regular season, contending teams throughout the sport are counting on key players returning from injury in the days and weeks ahead, hoping they might make the difference between missing out on October and winning it all. And given the landscape, which many consider as wide-open as ever, they just might.
Below is a look at some of the most impactful players on their way back.
Expected return date: The injury to Álvarez’s right hand has featured plenty of drama and required a lot of patience. The Astros initially diagnosed it as a muscle strain in early May and began the process of ramping him up by late June. Then came lingering pain, prompting a visit to a specialist and the revelation that the outfielder was dealing with a fractured bone. Perhaps, though, there is a light at the end of this tunnel. Álvarez resumed hitting off a tee and taking soft toss a couple weeks ago and hit on the field at the team’s spring training facility on Tuesday. The Astros are going to be really careful this time around, but there is hope he can help them down the stretch.
What he means to the team: The Astros lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker over the offseason and have received just 121 plate appearances from Álvarez — and a paltry slash line of .210/.306/.340 — yet they’re on pace for their eighth American League West title in nine years. You would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive development this season. When healthy, Álvarez is on par with Judge and Shohei Ohtani among the game’s most imposing hitters. Given how well the Astros have pitched, plugging Álvarez back into the middle of their lineup — with an ascending Jeremy Peña, a better-of-late Jose Altuve and what they hope is a rejuvenated Carlos Correa — could put them in the conversation for the best team in the AL, if not all baseball.
Expected return date: Right-hander Assad, out all year with a left oblique injury he reaggravated around late April, made his third rehab start on Wednesday, looking sharp while pitching into the fifth inning. His next step could be joining the rotation. Taillon is right behind him. The 33-year-old right-hander has been dealing with a right calf strain for a little more than a month but pitched three innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Sunday. He gave up seven runs, but he also came out of it feeling healthy. That’s all that matters at this point. Cubs starters not named Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have combined for a 4.63 ERA this season. And at this point, there is no outside help coming.
What they mean to the team: The Cubs did not land the controllable front-line starter they desired before the trade deadline. The starter they did acquire, Michael Soroka, pitched two innings in his debut on Monday, then landed on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. Now, the Cubs need to make up for what they lack in their rotation internally. Assad fashioned a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts last year and was effective both out of the rotation and in the bullpen in 2023. Taillon, a proven innings eater who consistently pounds the strike zone, is probably as good a complement to Boyd and Imanaga as the Cubs can get.
Expected return date: Bieber, who had Tommy John surgery, has not taken the mound in a major league game since April 2, 2024, but the former Cy Young Award winner’s return is approaching. The right-hander made his fifth rehab start — and first since being acquired by the Blue Jays — on Sunday, striking out six batters across five innings. He’ll make another start on Saturday, then perhaps one more after that. Then the Blue Jays will see if they can get the front-line starter they envisioned when they unloaded promising pitching prospect Khal Stephen to pry Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians last week.
What he means to the team: The Blue Jays are counting on several offensive contributors returning in the not-too-distant future, including George Springer, Andrés Giménez and, they hope, Anthony Santander. But Bieber is the wild card. If he’s close to what he was even after winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 — a guy who put up a 3.13 ERA and struck out 459 batters in 436⅔ innings from 2021 to 2024 — he can join Kevin Gausman and José Berríos to form a really solid rotation trio in October. But the initial returns from Tommy John surgery can be tricky. Just ask Sandy Alcántara.
Expected return date: Bohm took a sinker to his left side on July 12 and later learned he had suffered a fractured rib, but the 29-year-old third baseman has been hitting ground balls and taking batting practice and will now venture out on a rehab assignment. He could return to the Phillies’ lineup this month. Nola went on the injured list for the first time in eight years because of a sprained right ankle in mid-May, then was diagnosed with a stress reaction in one of his ribs a month later. Now, Nola is finally on his way back. He went 3⅔ innings in his second rehab start on Wednesday and will make one or two more before rejoining the rotation.
What they mean to the team: Bohm and Nola have served as catalysts while these Phillies have ascended to near the top of the sport in recent years, and it’s hard not to see them having a massive say — good or bad — in October. The Phillies need them to be healthy, but they also need them to be better. Bohm was slugging just .391 before going down. Nola, meanwhile, carried a 6.16 ERA through his first nine starts — one year after receiving Cy Young votes. The Phillies’ rotation has been one of the game’s best this season, and it can handle an ineffective Nola if it absolutely has to. But the offense needs Bohm’s production.
Expected return date: Burger is navigating his second stint on the IL this season, this time because of a left quad strain, but he has played in a couple of rehab games and could return before the end of the Rangers’ current homestand. Carter, an outfielder, was shut down with back spasms on Saturday, and though there’s currently no reason to believe it’s a serious injury, it’s worrisome when you consider how back issues plagued him in 2024.
What they mean to the team: The 2025 Rangers do everything well except the one thing they felt they could do best: hit. And while the offense has been a lot better lately, the Rangers could use more production from Burger and Carter in hopes of grabbing a playoff spot in a wide-open AL. Burger has slashed just .228/.259/.401 in his first year in Texas, but could at the very least platoon with fellow first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who has been a godsend since signing a minor league deal in early July. Carter, a rookie sensation during the stretch run of the team’s championship season in 2023, was slashing just .238/.323/.381.
Expected return date: Gasser, the 26-year-old left-hander who excelled in his first five major league starts last year, is in the late stages of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. His fourth rehab start came Sunday, during which he threw 16 pitches in the game and 19 in the bullpen. The Brewers are building him back up as a starter, so he still needs to increase his pitch count. But he’s on track to join a loaded Brewers pitching staff before the end of August. So is rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, who suffered a bruised left shin last week but isn’t expected to miss much more than the minimum amount of time. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, who landed on the IL with a hamstring strain last week, could be back by the end of the month, too.
What he means to the team: The Brewers acquired Gasser as part of the package that sent former closer Josh Hader to San Diego in summer 2022 and watched him shine as a rookie in 2024, putting up a 2.57 ERA with one walk in 28 innings. But then his ulnar collateral ligament gave out, triggering a long rehab that is finally reaching its conclusion. The Brewers see him as a starter long term, but there might not be room for him in the 2025 rotation. If that’s the case, he can be an impact lefty out of the bullpen. The Brewers acquired only one traditional reliever in Shelby Miller before the trade deadline, largely because they believe starters like Gasser, Chad Patrick and Tobias Myers can help them out of the bullpen when it matters most.
Expected return date: It has been a long, slow climb back for Greene and the right groin strain he suffered, for a second time, on June 3. The right-hander seemed to be approaching a return in July, but he experienced lingering pain and had to shut it down once more. Now, though, his return seems imminent. Greene navigated a third rehab start on Sunday, during which he struck out seven batters in 3⅓ innings, and is scheduled to ramp up to 80 pitches on Friday. After that, he could rejoin the rotation. With Nick Lodolo shut down with a blister that materialized on his left index finger in his Monday start, the Reds need Greene now more than ever.
What he means to the team: Here’s what Greene has done since the start of last July: 1.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 133 strikeouts, 30 walks, 112⅔ innings. Those are the numbers of not just a traditional front-line starter, but of one of the best pitchers in the game. The Reds have hung around all year, getting better starting pitching than they probably anticipated, but less offense than they hoped. They’ve underperformed their projections, but they still sit just three games back of a playoff spot. Greene — and Lodolo, who might require only a minimum stint on the injured list — could make the difference.
Expected return date: For the better part of two months, questions swirled around the state of King’s health and whether he would pitch at all this season. The 30-year-old right-hander was dealing with a thoracic nerve issue in his right shoulder, an exceedingly rare injury for a pitcher. He simply had to wait for the pain to subside, with no idea when it would. Now, though, he is on the doorstep of returning to the major leagues. King threw 61 pitches in 3⅓ innings in a rehab start on Sunday, allowing six runs but also striking out five batters. His next start is expected to come this weekend against the Boston Red Sox.
What he means to the team: Padres general manager A.J. Preller put together an epic trade deadline, upgrading at catcher, adding two competent bats to the lineup and, most notably, landing another impact arm for the bullpen. His starting-pitching additions, though, were depth players; JP Sears and Nestor Cortes are not expected to make playoff starts. What the Padres need is for King — their Game 1 starter in last year’s postseason, their Opening Day starter this year and owner of a 2.59 ERA in his first 10 starts — to join Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta in the rotation to truly make this one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport. It seems that will happen.
Expected return date: Kopech, nursing a right knee injury, has been throwing bullpen sessions and is expected to be activated once he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list in late August. Left-hander Scott, dealing with elbow inflammation, has also been throwing off a mound and doesn’t seem far off, either. Yates’ situation, though, is a little hazier. The 38-year-old right-hander had been dealing with lower back pain for a couple weeks before landing on the IL at the start of August. There is no timetable for his return, though it seems possible that he, too, can be back before the end of the month.
What they mean to the team: The Dodgers have once again absorbed a slew of injuries throughout their staff, having already deployed 38 pitchers — one year after setting a franchise record by using 40. Their bullpen has led the majors in innings for most of this season. At the deadline, though, the front office acted conservatively, adding just one bullpen arm, right-hander Brock Stewart, along with reserve outfielder Alex Call. The approach showed confidence in the arms the Dodgers have coming back, especially in the bullpen. But Scott and Yates, their two big offseason signings, have combined for a 4.21 ERA this season. Right-hander Kopech, meanwhile, has appeared in just eight games. They’ll have a lot to prove.
Expected return date: Optimism around Meadows emerged on Monday, with some light running in the outfield — a subtle sign he is progressing once again toward a rehab assignment. Meadows, 25, missed the first two months of the season with inflammation in his upper right arm that he later learned was a product of issues with his musculocutaneous nerve. He spent most of June and July in the lineup, then landed on the injured list once more, this time because of a right quad strain. The hope is that he can be back playing center field before the end of August.
What he means to the team: Meadows accumulated 11 outs above average in center field from 2023 to 2024 despite playing in only 119 games. In that stretch, he also stole 17 bases, provided a .729 OPS — with fairly even splits against lefties and righties — and accumulated 3.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement. As the Tigers march toward their first division title in 11 years and vie for a first-round bye, they find themselves longing for Meadows in several ways. The hope is that he’ll be a much better hitter than he showed earlier this season, when he slashed .200/.270/.296 in 137 plate appearances.
Expected return date: Megill has been absent from the Mets’ rotation since the middle of June because of a right elbow sprain but threw 20 pitches in a simulated game at Citi Field on Sunday. He is expected to extend to two innings in another session on Thursday. A rehab assignment will follow shortly thereafter, putting Megill on track to potentially rejoin the Mets’ rotation later this month. Megill was solid before going down, posting a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts, and the Mets’ rotation could really use some of that right now.
What he means to the team: When Megill got hurt on June 14, the Mets’ rotation easily led the majors with a 2.82 ERA. Since then, the group has posted a 5.12 ERA, ranked 26th. Lately, it has only gotten worse. The Mets have lost eight of their past nine games, and in that stretch, the starters have allowed 34 runs (32 earned) in 43⅔ innings. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga have all had their struggles, to varying degrees, of late. And though Megill certainly can’t fix that alone, another capable starter would certainly be welcomed.
Expected return date: Miller, limited to just 10 starts this season, cruised through his first rehab start on Friday, tossing four scoreless innings, and is scheduled to stretch to five innings on Thursday. Given that he has gone on the IL because of right elbow inflammation twice this year, requiring a cortisone shot and a platelet-rich plasma injection, the Mariners will play it safe — Miller will make two more rehab starts before being activated. Robles dislocated his left shoulder while making an incredible catch in San Francisco on April 6 and is way ahead of schedule. He’s expected to begin a rehab assignment next week and could return before the end of August.
What they mean to the team: Robles is the Mariners’ leadoff hitter and spark plug. Over a 77-game stretch after Seattle signed him as a free agent last summer, he slashed .328/.393/.467. And if he can produce something close to that, a Mariners offense that added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez before the trade deadline and has received a dominant season from Cal Raleigh will be as deep as it has been since Jerry Dipoto took over baseball operations 10 years ago. The Mariners haven’t received as much from their rotation as they would have expected this year, but a staff of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Miller — 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA while healthy last year — still rivals the best in the game.
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David Hale
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the debate between the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 over the future of the College Football Playoff, it’s that committees are awful. They get it wrong nearly every year despite the fact that they’ve mostly gotten it right.
Of course, Top 25 lists are no better. You know who votes in those? Reporters and coaches. Reporters clearly don’t know ball, and coaches don’t have the time to watch the games. We can’t trust them either.
There was a time when we entrusted computers with assembling a proper ranking of teams. The BCS crunched the numbers based on some nebulous inputs and spat out the results. And while it might feel like ChatGPT could step in now and become a neutral arbiter, it would also be one more step toward our eventual demise as a species. If humans can’t rank college football teams, it’s just a matter of time before we’re all controlled by a sentient version of those coffee delivery drones.
No, there is really just one honest way to evaluate college football’s 136 FBS teams, and that is to sort through all the data, talk to a host of coaches and players and analysts, and then unilaterally put them into tiers.
And with that, we give you the most official, guaranteed-to-be-accurate, tiered preseason ranking for the 2025 season.
Jump to a section:
Cream of the crop | Teams that are hot | Big Ten’s ticking clocks
Room for improvement | Could be talked into them
Tier 1a: A great matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship game (two teams)
Last season, Ohio State won a national championship and, according to virtually every coach we’ve asked, the Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country all along. Only, if the playoff had waited one more year to expand, Ohio State would’ve missed out, and Ryan Day might’ve been looking for a job.
There’s a fun thought experiment to be done with those facts in mind: Did expanding the playoff give more teams an opportunity to win it all, or did it simply ensure that the best teams wouldn’t miss their chance due to something fluky (or, in Ohio State’s case, something that has become increasingly common)?
We pose this question because it may apply to the Buckeyes again in 2025. With a bevy of veterans off to the NFL from the 2024 national championship team and a fresh-faced quarterback taking over the offense, it’s entirely reasonable to think Ohio State might need a few weeks to get rolling again. The only problem is the Buckeyes don’t have an inch of runway: Texas is waiting in Week 1.
In another era, this game wouldn’t just be the marquee event of the opening weekend but a turning point in the season. The loser would then face another 11 games while residing on a knife’s edge. A second loss — to Michigan, perhaps — would doom the Buckeyes. Texas would still have an entire SEC slate ahead with no margin for error. And yet, it could still be entirely true that the loser of this game would have a claim to the title of the country’s most talented squad.
Of course, this is the 12-team playoff era (and soon to be the 14-, 16- or, if Eli Drinkwitz has his way, 30-team playoff era) which means that the first showdown between Ohio State and Texas will be but an appetizer, and both schools will remain the most likely to hoist the trophy in late January.
Is that better? Would the 2024 campaign have been more fun if Ohio State had been left out because of the loss to Michigan?
With all due respect to the folks in Ann Arbor nodding their heads like they’re at a Pantera concert, the verdict seems to be that the sport benefits when the best teams get as many bites at the apple as they need to close the deal.
Tier 1b: The rest of the best (three teams)
At this year’s SEC media days, we posed a question to one of the league’s upper-tier coaches: How many teams each season can really win it all?
His answer: Four. Maybe five.
This is the secret that few in college football like to discuss, because it invariably quashes hope for lots of other fan bases, and aside from five-star recruits, hope is a program’s most valuable commodity.
But this coach is certainly not alone. It’s a theory posited again and again by folks inside the sport. Just who those four or five teams are may change from year to year, but no matter how much the playoff expands, the number of teams who realistically have a chance to still be standing at the end remains mostly fixed.
That’s sort of the point of why we’re ranking teams by tiers. There are lots of “good” teams, but how many are really within striking distance of winning a national title? Probably four or five.
Now, we could be wrong about the makeup of that five-team upper tier. There’s a first time for everything, after all. But if we’re looking at top talent, a path to the playoff, recent history and we’re properly reading our Magic 8 Ball, then Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are at the front of the line (alongside Ohio State and Texas).
The potential pitfall for each? QB play.
Georgia turns things over to Gunner Stockton, who started last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame but also drives a 1985 Ford F-150. Aside from a T-bird with a gold eagle on the hood, there’s no better vehicle a QB can drive to provide assurance that he knows what he’s doing.
At Oregon, Dan Lanning turns to Dante Moore, the former prized recruit for UCLA who learned behind Dillon Gabriel last season. Moore has ample talent to get the job done, and if he struggles early, there’s at least a 20% chance Phil Knight bribes Tom Brady to come out of retirement, don a fake mustache and use the name “Dom Frady” to lead the Ducks to a title.
And then there’s Drew Allar, who enters his second year with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki alongside arguably the most talented supporting cast in the Big Ten. The pressure is on for Allar — who has been very good but not entirely elite — to finish the job. We can’t help but feel like Penn State replacing the old press box at Beaver Stadium is exactly the type of curse-ending decision Allar and the Nittany Lions needed to change their fortunes.
Tier 2: Playoff expectations (six teams)
Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU
Anything less than a playoff appearance would feel like a serious disappointment for the teams in Tier 2. None feel like an absolute lock, though.
Michigan’s schedule is certainly accommodating. The only team on the docket to finish 2024 with more than seven wins is Ohio State, on the final Saturday of the regular season. But Michigan also has QB questions, with freshman Bryce Underwood considered the likely starter. Last season’s offensive woes led to five losses on the heels of a national title, so getting the QB choice right is an imperative.
Notre Dame and Alabama are breaking in new QBs, too. CJ Carr has plenty of hype and the Irish probably have their best skill position depth in Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Tide lost four games last season for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut campaign. Patience will be thin in Tuscaloosa, making Kalen DeBoer’s handling of the quarterback room a tricky situation. Ty Simpson, a once-prized recruit, has the inside track, but freshman Keelon Russell is incredibly talented. Could this look a little like the 2016 opener, when Blake Barnett got the start only to be benched in favor of a freshman by the name of Jalen Hurts after two drives?
LSU hasn’t won an opener since 2019. Clemson has lost three of its past four openers. Something has got to give when the two teams face off in Week 1. Clemson can probably survive a defeat, even if Dabo Swinney’s critics will begin the chorus once again that he’s past his prime. LSU will have a tougher time recovering with a schedule that still includes Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Brian Kelly’s head exploding with fire like the red guy in “Inside Out” should at least provide some entertainment if things go south in Baton Rouge.
Then there’s Miami, a team with all the talent to make a title run but enough self-inflicted wounds over the years to wonder if it’ll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that trip up the Canes.
(Note: It’ll be Syracuse. We all know it’ll be Syracuse.)
Tier 3: Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too (six teams)
Florida
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Fun fact: All 16 SEC teams rank among the 20 hardest schedules in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the easy (relatively speaking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).
We know you’re shocked to learn that life is difficult in the SEC. The league so rarely mentions its depth or strength of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to suggest that their teams deserve any additional benefit of the doubt as a result. Oh wait, they’re actually contractually obligated to mention it in every interview.
Lane Kiffin drew the ire of some ACC fans when he said another SEC coach suggested it’d be easier to play Clemson each week than an SEC schedule. That may have been an exaggeration, but according to ESPN Research, a slate that included eight games against Clemson plus a reasonable nonconference schedule would work out to be almost exactly as difficult as the schedule Florida plays this season.
The Gators play eight teams that have spent time in the AP top 10 in the past two seasons, all of whom have rosters made of a majority blue-chip recruits. By SP+, the Gators get six of the top 13 teams (and also Long Island). It’s a schedule DJ Lagway called “fun” and Florida fans call “less enjoyable than a root canal.”
Now, others may parse the data differently, but the bottom line is inarguable: No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 likely to include at least two playoff teams and at least two schools that fire their coaches, and the difference between those camps will be a few plays one way or the other.
The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is one of the reasons it has pushed so hard for increased playoff access. There’s simply not a scenario in which every school that invests in winning, has a playoff-caliber roster and whose fans expect to make a playoff run, will actually do so.
Tier 4: Last year’s playoff surprises (four teams)
Arizona State
Boise State
Indiana
SMU
In 2023, Arizona State and Indiana each won three games, Boise State fired its coach after a 5-5 start, and SMU was in the American Athletic Conference and lost in a bowl game to Boston College.
In 2024, they were all playoff teams.
The initial 12-team playoff was truly remarkable in that it didn’t simply reward 12 blue bloods. It coincided with an abrupt change in the sport that allowed complete afterthoughts in September to play meaningful football in December and January.
Yes, playoff expansion was the key here, but it’s true, too, that the era of name, image and likeness, the transfer portal, and bloated conferences that equate to disparate schedules set the stage for far more volatility in the standings than ever before. The top end of the bell curve may remain static at four or five elite teams, but the meat of it keeps getting wider.
Indiana and Arizona State both went from three wins to double digits. In the entire playoff era (minus the COVID year), that had only happened one other time at a Power 5 school (2017 Michigan State, who promptly regressed to 7-6 the next year).
SMU came within a hair’s breadth of winning the ACC title. TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston — the past six teams to move up from a non-power league — were a combined 16-38 in conference play in their first years in a Power 5 conference, and none had a winning record.
Since firing Andy Avalos after that 5-5 start, Boise State has won 15 of 18 games, with all three losses coming to Power 4 foes.
Life moves quickly in college football these days. The big question as this foursome looks to return to the College Football Playoff is whether the pendulum swings just as fast in the other direction.
(Note from Tallahassee: It does.)
Tier 5: So hot right now (four teams)
Illinois
Louisville
Texas Tech
Utah
We probably shouldn’t use last year’s playoff as an indication of what the future may hold. It’s a one-year sample size, after all. But 2024 gave us six first-time playoff teams, and odds are, we’ll get two or three more this season. And when it comes to predicting who those teams might be, the schools in Tier 5 are the hottest things since Hansel hit the runway in “Zoolander.”
There’s plenty of buzz that this year’s Indiana could be Illinois. If the implication is that the Illini could be a surprise playoff team out of the Big Ten, it makes sense. But the key difference here is Indiana came out of nowhere to go 11-1 last regular season. An Illinois run into the playoff would be far less shocking. The Illini went 10-3 last season, with two losses coming to playoff teams. They also beat Michigan (transitive property national champs!) and South Carolina (though that doesn’t count because the SEC doesn’t care about meaningless bowls). Bret Bielema has built something that looks an awful lot like his old Wisconsin teams — veteran QB, heavy dose of the run game behind a massive O-line, stout defense — capable of competing with nearly anyone. Of course, those Wisconsin teams were notable for being routinely good but never quite great. How high is the ceiling for Bielema now?
Utah enters this season as a trendy pick in the Big 12 thanks to some returning stars, an expectation that last year’s bad luck has to turn, and finally opening a season with someone other than the hollowed-out shell of Cam Rising at QB.
If luck kept Utah from the Big 12 race last season, it may have kept Louisville from the playoff. The Cards lost four games — three to top-15 teams — all by a touchdown or less, along with a defeat at the hands of Stanford that will go down as possibly the single dumbest way to lose a football game that didn’t involve throwing a shoe.
And if you’re not psyched for Texas Tech this year … how much cash would it take to change your mind?
Tier 6: The Big 12 is the new ACC Coastal (four teams)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
TCU
Ever play credit card roulette? When the bill comes at a restaurant, everyone at the table puts their credit card into a hat, then the server picks one at random to pay the entire bill. That’s effectively how the Big 12 is looking right now. (In this analogy, though, Texas Tech should probably be picking up any checks.) Look at the betting markets and every team in the conference is projected to win between 5.5 and 8.5 games this season.
So, throw the names into a hat and pull one out. You’re as likely to get it right as we are.
Tier 7: Flying beneath the radar like Tom Cruise in ‘Maverick’ (five teams)
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Washington
We’ve seen a lot of change in college football in recent years, which has made Iowa’s offense such a needed through line connecting the modern version of the sport with an older generation. Granted, that generation probably lived through the Great Depression, but let’s not split hairs. Nevertheless, there were signs that even the Hawkeyes might be taking a small step forward, as the offense scored 40 points in a game four times last season — something Iowa had done just four times in the previous four seasons combined. Now, Iowa has a QB it likes in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, the defense should be stout again, and nobody punts like the Hawkeyes.
Kansas was 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year but also had wins over three straight ranked teams in November. With a more settled offensive approach and the return of Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks look like a potential sleeper.
Not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season, Minnesota is one of just 15 teams to win 60% of its Power 5 games. That’s more impressive than it sounds. It’s better than Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami and Texas A&M. The Gophers enter 2025 with a ton of intriguing pieces led by Koi Perich and Darius Taylor, and while the schedule includes road trips to Ohio State and Oregon, there’s certainly a path for PJ Fleck to get Minnesota back to the 10-win plateau.
Fun fact: Since Brent Key took over as head coach at Georgia Tech on Sept. 26, 2022, the Yellow Jackets have as many wins against ranked foes (six) as Clemson and more than Penn State (five), Oklahoma (four) or LSU (four). In fact, they have more than Miami, Colorado, Boise State, Indiana and BYU combined — and all five of those teams finished last year in the top 25. Of course, in that same span, Georgia Tech has losses to Virginia, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech and Vandy. So, it’s a work in progress.
Washington is a work in progress, too. In Year 1 under Jedd Fisch, the Huskies floundered to a 6-7 record, including losses to Washington State and Rutgers. But Demond Williams Jr. looks like a difference-maker at QB, and it’s worth remembering that at Arizona, Fisch went from a completely noncompetitive 1-11 in Year 1 to 5-7 in Year 2 with one of the most improved teams in the country. Washington may still be a year away, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Huskies take a big leap forward now before threatening in the Big Ten in 2026.
Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)
BYU
Duke
Missouri
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
This group of teams won 32 games against Power 4 opponents last season. Twenty-four of them (75%) came by a touchdown or less.
Missouri and Duke each won four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse each won double-digit games despite being outscored against FBS opponents last season.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
Look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, and these teams raise more red flags than Kanye’s Bumble profile.
Perhaps these guys all fend off the fickle college football gods for another year, but if the “Final Destination” movies have taught us anything, it’s that Ali Larter should be in more movies. But if there’s another thing they taught us, it’s that you can only avoid a disastrous fate for so long.
Tier 9: Regression to the mean (the good kind) (four teams)
Auburn
Florida State
NC State
Virginia Tech
This spring, ESPN’s Bill Connelly dug into three metrics that often rely heavily on luck: turnovers, close games and injuries. His findings: A lot went wrong for Florida State last year.
Now, it’s admirable that Connelly dug deep into the numbers, ran some regression analysis and employed NASA-level computing power to identify this. Another way to do it would’ve been to simply watch five minutes of FSU football last season, because at any given moment, something ridiculous was going wrong for the Seminoles.
You simply don’t go from 13-1 to 2-10 without the football gods deciding to do some serious smiting.
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, from Connelly’s stats — FSU was 128th in turnover luck, 90th in close-game luck and 110th in lineup consistency — to the types of things that were probably a bit more predictable (settling for DJ Uiagalelei at QB over Cam Ward).
It should be noted that, once again, FSU has rolled the dice on a QB with a checkered past, and Tommy Castellanos seems intent on taunting the aforementioned football gods, but at the very least, some of that bad luck has to go the other way in 2025, putting the Seminoles on course to improve by a good measure.
The same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 1-12 under coach Brent Pry in games determined by a touchdown or less, but it’s also worth noting that last year marked the first time since 2010 the Hokies didn’t lose a single regular-season game by more than 10.
NC State adds to the ACC’s run of bad luck last season, with Grayson McCall‘s early-season injury upending the offense and a 45-point year-over-year swing in points off turnovers for a team that lost five games by 10 or fewer points.
But the team that might have the best chance to turn the disappointments of 2024 into a serious playoff run in 2025 is Auburn. Jackson Arnold takes over at QB for an offense loaded with skill-position talent. The defense should be solid. Then look at the luck-based numbers: Auburn was 124th in turnover luck and dead last in close-game luck, which covered up the fact it was among the best teams in the country in success and explosive play rate differential. The pieces are in place, the Tigers just need a little more luck to make a run at 10 wins.
Tier 10a: The Big Ten’s ticking clocks (three teams)
Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Luke Fickell each seemed like absolute home run coaching hires. Setting aside Riley’s 11-1 start to his tenure at USC, the three are now a combined 40-39 overall with a 23-32 record in Big Ten play since Dec. 1, 2022. That has put all three in a position to make 2025 a must-win year. What exactly “winning” means probably differs a bit by school, but the pressure is on.
Nebraska might be best equipped to make the leap to the next level. Dylan Raiola goes into Year 2 running the offense, but it’ll be his first full season with Dana Holgorsen calling the plays. Add in that, at some point, Nebraska’s run of awful luck in close games has to swing the other way and it’s not unfathomable that the Huskers are in the mix for a playoff bid.
For Wisconsin, it’s a return to the Badgers’ foundations as Fickell has abandoned plans to bring an up-tempo passing attack to the stodgy Big Ten and will build around the ground game.
At USC, Riley lost a ton of big-name talent in the portal and will move forward with a QB who has 19 touchdown passes and 17 turnovers in nine career starts against teams with a winning record.
They can’t all turn it around this year, which makes this perhaps the most interesting portion of the Big Ten’s standings.
Tier 10b: The Group of 6’s other top playoff contenders (six teams)
Liberty
Memphis
James Madison
Toledo
Tulane
UNLV
Liberty is the gold standard in soft scheduling. The Flames have the worst preseason strength of schedule in the country after finishing 2024 with … the worst strength of schedule in the country. Half of Liberty’s 12 games are against teams that were at the FCS level in 2021. It has four games against first-year head coaches. Eight games come against teams that won four or fewer FBS games last year. Jamey Chadwell should have a good team, but the schedule also should make it nearly impossible to finish worse than 10-2.
UNLV and Memphis both figure to be in contention for the Group of 6’s playoff bid, and their schedules certainly make the path a little easier. The Rebels (No. 113 schedule) have a home game against UCLA and a road trip to Boise State to contend with, but they also have eight games against teams ranked 100th or worse in preseason FPI (including six ranked 120th or worse). Memphis (No. 106 schedule strength) also has a relatively clear path. The Tigers get Arkansas — their lone Power 4 opponent — at home, miss Army, Tulane and UTSA from the conference schedule, and follow the game against the Razorbacks with five games in six weeks against teams that finished a combined 15-41 vs. FBS opponents last year. If Memphis can topple the Hogs, expect the Tigers to enter November with a top-20 ranking.
Since 2022, no Group of 5 team has won more games than Tulane (32). The Green Wave ought to again be among the best of the American in terms of talent, but the schedule is no easy task to manage. In nonconference play, Tulane hosts Northwestern, goes on the road to South Alabama, hosts Duke (and QB Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane after last season), then travels to Ole Miss. In conference play, Tulane gets ECU, Army, UTSA and Memphis — four of the six other American teams to make a bowl last year. If Tulane makes the playoff, it will have earned the spot.
Could Toledo make a run at the playoff? The Rockets open with a trip to Kentucky, which isn’t exactly an insurmountable hill to climb unless you’re Ole Miss. Win that and the next week against Western Kentucky, and Toledo should have a little buzz. Then check out the back half of the schedule: vs. Kent State, at Washington State, vs. NIU, at Miami (Ohio), vs. Ball State and at Central Michigan. Those six teams finished a combined 16-24 in the second half of last season.
JMU has won 28 games in three seasons since moving up from the FCS, and of its nine losses, four have come by a touchdown or less. The Sun Belt is deep, but it’s not top-heavy, opening the door for the Dukes to make a run at the Group of 6’s playoff bid.
Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven teams)
Cincinnati
Colorado
Houston
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Virginia
This tier includes Deion Sanders and Bill Belichick so, for media purposes, it should probably be Tier 1. But there are still some big questions surrounding Colorado and UNC.
For the Buffaloes, it’ll be the first time Coach Prime will have to go to battle without Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter. Colorado has topped 150 yards on designed runs only once in two years under Deion Sanders, and the Buffs’ 74 designed rush yards-per-game in that stretch is, by far, the worst in the country. How will Colorado adapt after losing two of the most explosive players in the country in the passing game?
UNC has completely overhauled its roster from the Mack Brown era, with Belichick dipping heavily into the transfer portal — including nearly three dozen spring portal additions. Numerous coaches who spoke with ESPN said this spring was an incredibly shallow pool of talent. Can that actually translate to wins or will 2025 be more about building a foundation than reviving the program?
Instead, it might be the lower-profile programs in this tier who have the real upside.
Virginia added transfer QB Chandler Morris alongside one of the better portal classes in the ACC and plays one of the weakest schedules of any Power 4 school this season. Louisville, Washington State and Duke are the only opponents on this season’s slate that won more than six games in 2024.
Houston showed signs of promise in Year 1 under Willie Fritz with wins over TCU, Utah and Kansas State, even if the final record was ugly (4-8). An offensive overhaul led by Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman should help a program that finished 133rd in scoring last season.
Each of the past two seasons, Rutgers has gone 6-6 with a four-game losing streak in the mix then won a bowl game. Usually, that would count as real success at a place like Rutgers, but coach Greg Schiano clearly has higher aspirations, and the Scarlet Knights might have the talent to push for bigger things in 2025.
Cincinnati blew a big lead to Pitt in Week 2. Pitt went on to start 7-0 before injuries and a handful of close losses derailed its season. Had Cincy hung on, it could’ve opened 6-1 with a win over Arizona State on its record. Instead, the Bearcats finished on a five-game losing streak and did not make a bowl. Both teams are deeper and more experienced this season, with veteran QBs and stars on defense (Kyle Louis, Dontay Corleone).
Tier 12: Even Stevens (seven teams)
Arkansas
Boston College
Cal
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan State
UCLA
In the playoff era, BC has finished with either six or seven wins nine times.
Arkansas is 30-31 under Sam Pittman. Not counting the COVID-19 season, it’s 20-21 vs. FBS teams. The Hogs are 21-9 vs. teams with a losing record and 9-22 vs. teams with a winning record.
Cal has finished with between five and seven wins six times in the playoff era, and it has 61 games (fifth most nationally) decided by a touchdown or less.
Since 2018, Michigan State is 41-41 — though that includes seasons of 11-2 and 4-8.
Since Mark Stoops’ second year, Kentucky is 65-63 vs. FBS opponents. From 2015 to 2023, the Wildcats were 31-29 in SEC play.
UCLA is 66-64 in the playoff era, averaging 29.6 points and surrendering 29.1 points against FBS opposition.
Now, Oscar Wilde said that consistency was the last refuge of the unimaginative, but The Rock said success was more about consistency than greatness. Who are you going to believe — some long-dead writer or the star of “Jumanji: The Next Level”?
Tier 13: Stars & stripes (three teams)
Army and Navy were a combined 22-5 last season. In 2023, Air Force won nine games. In the playoff era, the military academies have 11 10-win seasons. And they’ve done it all without NIL deals or taking transfers.
Now, if we wanted to really protect America’s interests, we’d start putting tariffs on the portal and using that money to fund academy revenue sharing.
Tier 14: Room for improvement (six teams)
Arizona
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
UCF
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Arizona and Oklahoma State were a combined 20-7 (and 14-4 in conference play) in 2023. Both fell off a cliff in 2024.
The Wildcats struggled in Year 1 under Brent Brennan, but they bring back Noah Fifita at QB and showed enough life that a step forward in 2025 isn’t unrealistic.
Mike Gundy has made it a habit of having big seasons mixed with mediocre ones in the past few years, but last year’s winless Big 12 schedule was an anomaly. Gundy is high on QB Hauss Hejny, who should at least be able to open things up a bit for the run game.
Wake Forest is getting a fresh start under new coach Jake Dickert. The roster needs work — QB and O-line are blank slates — but the Deacons bring back a talented tailback in Demond Claiborne and have the weakest schedule in the Power 4.
UCF is looking to go back to the future by bringing Scott Frost home after his dismal stint at Nebraska. Frost inherited a train wreck during his first stint in Orlando and turned things around quickly — though that was in the American, not the Big 12.
For virtually the entirety of this millennium, Northwestern has effectively put the same team on the field — shaky QB, good defense, smart players — and watched as the results either come up with 10 wins and a run at the Big Ten or a 3-9 season that’s physically painful to watch.
Aside from the surprising 9-4 season in 2023, West Virginia has won either five or six games every year since 2019.
In other words, it’s hard to feel particularly good about any team in this tier, but it’s also entirely within reason that some team here wins 10 games.
Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 teams)
App State
Buffalo
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Louisiana
Ohio
North Texas
South Alabama
Texas State
Troy
UConn
South Florida
UTSA
Western Kentucky
North Texas has been a perennial six-win team, but this could be the Mean Green’s chance to make a big leap up the standings. They check-in only one spot ahead of Liberty with the No. 135th-ranked schedule in the country, miss ECU, USF, Memphis and Tulane in conference play, and after Oct. 1, they go on the road only three times — to Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
Florida Atlantic was another team snakebit by bad luck last season. As Connelly noted in his analysis of teams facing the worst luck, only one program finished 111th or worse in all three categories he evaluated: FAU. Now add new head coach Zach Kittley and QB transfer Caden Veltkamp and there’s a lot to like about the Owls’ upside.
South Alabama also had plenty of bad luck in close games. The Jaguars lost to Ohio, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Texas State — all teams that won eight or more games — by a combined 20 points.
Tier 16a: At least you tried (three teams)
Mississippi State
Purdue
Stanford
Stanford has won nine Power 5 games since 2021. Five of them came against teams that either finished ranked in the top 25 or were ranked there at the time of the game. Another came against Deion Sanders. Stanford makes no sense.
Mississippi State is 2-16 vs. Power 5 competition in the past two years. The two wins are by a combined 11 points. The losses are by an average of 18.
Purdue. More like Pur-don’t. We’ll show ourselves out.
Tier 16b: The lost boys (two teams)
In the past 24 months, Oregon and Washington agreed to move to the Big Ten for 40 cents on the dollar. Stanford and Cal took even less from the ACC. SMU agreed to play ACC ball for nothing, and Memphis just offered the Big 12 $200 million for an invite.
Why?
Because of zombified remains of Washington State and Oregon State.
From former Cougars QB John Mateer, who transferred, along with his offensive coordinator, to Oklahoma after last season’s surprising 8-4 finish, on seeing what became of Wazzu after the Pac-12 fell apart: “I loved my time there. I never thought I’d leave. It sucked. I couldn’t control it. I was going to play against whoever I was going to play against, but it broke my heart.”
Tier 17: They’re fine. Solid. Decent. OK. (10 teams)
Arkansas State
Bowling Green
Colorado State
Georgia Southern
Miami (Ohio)
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
San Diego State
San José State
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall had New Mexico on the verge of a bowl last season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he rights the ship quickly at Utah State.
Eddie George inherits a solid squad at Bowling Green, and he’s thinking — well, either aspirationally or he’s delusional — that the Falcons can win big.
Jay Norvell has gone from three to five to eight wins in his time at Colorado State. This could be his real breakthrough season.
Unfortunately for NIU, it lost out on an easy win without Notre Dame on the schedule this season.
Tier 18: We could be talked into them (eight teams)
Coastal Carolina
Hawai’i
UL Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston
Southern Miss
UAB
Wyoming
Hawai’i won five games and missed out on beating UCLA and UNLV by a combined five points. The Rainbow Warriors are trending in the right direction.
Louisiana Tech finished 5-8, but its first six losses of the season all came by 10 points or fewer.
ULM finished on a six-game losing streak, even wasting a chance to embarrass Hugh Freeze at Jordan-Hare in late November, which had become one of our favorite Group of 5 traditions.
Tier 19: The best entertainment you’re likely to find on a Tuesday night in mid-November (12 teams)
Central Michigan
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Jacksonville State
Marshall
Missouri State
Nevada
Temple
Tulsa
UTEP
Western Michigan
You might be surprised to learn that Delaware is an FBS football program beginning this season. To help with your preseason preparation, here are some fun facts to familiarize yourself with the program.
The Blue Hen is the only explicitly female mascot in FBS football (not counting Mrs. Wuf at NC State).
Delaware’s winged helmet design was created by former coach David Nelson, a former Michigan football player, who essentially cut and pasted his former team’s look.
Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco both played at Delaware.
Delaware is, in fact, an entire state and not just 18 miles of highway between toll booths in Maryland and New Jersey.
Tier 20: Participation trophies (11 teams)
Akron
Ball State
Charlotte
Georgia State
Kennesaw State
Kent State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Rice
Massachusetts
You know what they call the guy who finishes last in his class at medical school? They call him “doctor.” And so it is that the teams in Tier 20 are technically FBS football programs, though they’re as likely to finish with a conference championship as they are to finish medical school themselves.
Since the end of 2022, Kent State has had a head coach quit to become a coordinator for Deion Sanders (then be demoted), another get fired for taking loans from a booster and the program posting a 1-23 record, including 21 straight losses. Last season, Kent State was outgained by an average of 282 yards per game — 120 more than any other team. The Golden Flashes play Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma in the first five weeks this season.
Last season, Ball State became only the fourth team of the playoff era (not counting the 2020 COVID season) to have a turnover margin of plus-2 or better and still be outscored by at least 14 points per game and outgained by at least 100 yards per game. So, what happens if the turnover luck is a little worse in 2025?
Then there’s Charlotte, a program that couldn’t even afford sleeves for its last head coach, has had only one winning season in its history, and now faces the second-most daunting schedule of any Group of 6 team in the country. Per ESPN’s metrics, the 49ers’ schedule is tougher than all but one Big 12 team.
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