Rishi Sunak says Britain and the EU have an understanding on what needs to be done around the Northern Ireland Protocol, but that work still needs to be done.
I thought we had a Brexit deal, what is this agreement that Rishi Sunak is trying to get?
These talks are all about the part of the Brexit deal that relates to Northern Ireland.
Dubbed the “Northern Ireland Protocol”, it was agreed with the EU by Boris Johnson in 2020 – alongside the wider trade and co-operation treaty.
The point of it is to avoid a hard physical border on the island of Ireland – the only place where there is a land frontier between the UK and EU.
More on Brexit
Related Topics:
All parties agreed this was necessary to preserve peace on the island.
The protocol does this by placing Northern Ireland in a far tighter relationship with the EU, compared with the rest of the UK.
Advertisement
Since the Brexit deal fully came into force at the start of 2021, there has been an ongoing process to iron out the various issues it has thrown up relating to Northern Ireland.
That has escalated over time to the point where a new agreement is now being worked on.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:36
There’s new hope of a breakthrough to end years of deadlock between the UK and the European Union over post-Brexit trade arrangements
What practical changes are needed?
To avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, physical checks take place when goods cross the Irish Sea from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
Companies and traders in Northern Ireland also have to comply with EU single market rules.
This has all caused friction in the flows of goods coming from England, Wales and Scotland with shortages of certain items in shops and onerous paperwork for businesses.
EU rules on food stuffs has also meant a potential ban on sausages and other “chilled meats” coming from Great Britain.
There are also upsides of the deal though. As Northern Ireland essentially still has one foot in the EU single market, it’s easier for businesses there to trade on the continent.
What’s been the political fallout in Belfast?
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) unionist politicians in Belfast believe Northern Ireland is being carved out from the rest of the UK and treated in too different a fashion.
This stems in part from the practical problems being experienced by businesses.
There’s also concern over a so-called “democratic deficit” whereby Northern Ireland takes on rules from Brussels that it has no say over.
There are more ideological issues too. The role played by the European Court of Justice is a big sticking point.
Because Northern Ireland is still subject to EU rules, Brussels believes its court should have a heavy involvement in resolving disputes.
The DUP and some Conservative MPs see this as an erosion of the UK’s sovereignty and incompatible with the aims of Brexit.
Image: The iconic site of Harland & Wolff’s shipyard in Belfast
How does this relate to the Northern Ireland assembly?
The DUP is one of two parties that shares power in the devolved government in Northern Ireland.
But the party has been staging a boycott and refusing to allow this executive to form or the elected assembly to sit until its concerns over the Brexit deal are addressed.
This has meant the democratic institutions that are supposed to be running public services in Northern Ireland and representing voters haven’t been functioning properly for more than a year.
Sinn Fein – the republican party that also shares powers in Belfast – has urged the DUP to approve the changes to the Brexit deal and go back into power-sharing as soon as possible.
What will be in the new deal?
We don’t really know. Downing Street has been keeping quiet about the details.
Speculation is that parts of it will look quite similar to plans outlined by the UK last year.
There may be a “green lane” and “red lane” system to separate goods destined for Northern Ireland from those at risk of being transported to the Republic and on to the EU.
This should reduce the need for physical checks and paperwork. Some sort of compromise is also likely on the role of the European Court of Justice.
There could potentially be a mechanism whereby the ECJ can only decide on a dispute after a referral from a separate arbitration panel or a Northern Irish court.
This is the big unknown. The party has come up with seven “tests” that it will apply to any deal when deciding whether to back it.
These contain some specific requests, such as there being no checks on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and no border in the Irish Sea.
But there are also broader points such as allowing the people of Northern Ireland the same privileges as everyone else in the United Kingdom and guaranteeing the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.
There are also electoral considerations, a sizeable chunk of the unionist community in Northern Ireland believes the DUP should only go back into power-sharing if the Northern Ireland Protocol is scrapped completely.
So if the DUP is seen to cave too easily, the party could lose voters to more hard line rivals.
Will Tory MPs support it?
Again, we just don’t know. It’s also unclear whether MPs will actually get a Commons vote on the new agreement. Downing Street hasn’t committed to one.
But not allowing MPs to have a say would risk inflaming tensions with backbenchers.
The main audience the prime minister needs to please here is the “European Research Group” of pro-Brexit MPs.
They claim otherwise, but the caucus isn’t really as powerful as it was a few years ago.
Many senior members are now in government including the Home Secretary Suella Braverman, the Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris and his junior minister Steve Baker.
They will all need to be happy before the deal is published. In fact, they could play a part in getting Eurosceptic colleagues on board.
The reaction of Boris Johnson could also prove crucial. If the former prime minister came out against his successor’s deal, that could galvanise backbench anger.
Labour has said it will lend Rishi Sunak votes if he can’t push the deal through on his own. But this would be an embarrassing development for the prime minister that would risk further instability in his own party.
What happens if Rishi Sunak can’t get everybody on board?
The prime minister can live with some dissent from his MPs. Failing to win the support of the DUP is more serious though, as it means the party will continue to block the formation of the devolved executive in Belfast.
If the objections from the DUP seem less forceful, Mr Sunak could proceed anyway and hope they eventually come onboard after May’s local elections.
If he runs into a solid roadblock with both his MPs and the DUP and can’t get further concessions from the EU, then there is still the option of invoking the Northern Ireland Protocol Act.
This is UK legislation currently making its way through Parliament that would strip away parts of the Brexit deal without the approval of the EU.
Many see it as contravening international law and using it risks a trade war with Brussels. That’s something the government could do without, given the delicate economic situation.
What if Rishi Sunak gets his deal through with support from everybody?
If the prime minister can fix the Brexit deal, restore power-sharing in Belfast and keep his party together then it will be the undeniable high point of his time in Downing Street so far.
He will be able to claim that he solved an issue that has bedevilled his three predecessors.
It also has the potential of being a significant political inflexion point.
If the economic situation improves and he can also bring forward tangible action on strikes and Channel crossings, then there is a chance that the gloomy electoral outlook for the government begins to brighten.
But I thought Boris Johnson said Brexit was done?
Yes, he did. He also promised that his deal would not lead to a border in the Irish Sea.
At the time, many inside and outside of politics warned that the text of the agreement he signed would mean checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The former prime minister and his allies now say no one expected the EU to enforce the agreement in such a strict and inflexible way. The real answer to all this may lie in the politics of the time.
In 2019, Boris Johnson was eager to get a deal agreed with Brussels and campaign in a general election on the back of it.
This meant some of the thornier parts of the treaty were somewhat played down at the time. But it also stored up problems that Rishi Sunak is now trying to fix.
If this deal goes through, will Brexit then be done?
It will be more “done” than it ever has been. But overall, not really.
For a start, the Northern Ireland Protocol has a consent mechanism built into it, meaning that members of the devolved assembly in Belfast will vote next year on whether to keep the arrangement.
If a simple majority of Stormont members approves the deal, then it will remain in place for four years, at which point another vote will take place.
If it passes with a higher approval percentage in both unionist and republican parties, then the next vote will happen in eight years’ time. Then there’s the issue of the UK signing trade deals with other countries around the world.
This could mean changes to domestic rules and regulations that would have a knock-on impact for Northern Ireland and for the UK’s broader relationship with the EU.
Future governments may also decide to take a different approach with Brussels meaning Brexit and the country’s relationship with its closest neighbours will stay a live issue for a good time yet.
For people with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, also known as ADHD, the traditional workplace can be a challenging world to navigate.
Yet, diagnosis rates of the condition are rocketing across all age groups and employment lawyers are now being flooded with enquiries from people who are concerned about how their condition has been handled at work.
Businesses are being forced to pay attention.
Bahar Khorram is one of those people. The IT executive was working at Capgemini, the global consultancy firm. While on her probation period, she started struggling with her tasks and asked for support.
Image: Bahar Khorram
“I was trying to avoid taking the legal route because I really liked the company. This was my dream job, I loved it, and I knew I could do it. So I was trying to manage it in my head and trying to do what they asked. But when I realised that I couldn’t, I was experiencing anxiety,” she said.
“I started losing a lot of weight, I went to the doctor, and I sat there, and I burst into tears, and he said, ‘you are depressed, and you have anxiety.'”
Not everyone’s experience is the same, but people with the condition might have difficulty concentrating on certain tasks or remembering instructions. They might struggle with organisation and restlessness.
Last month, an employment tribunal in London found Capgemini failed to provide the recommended neurodiversity awareness training, and this amounted to discrimination.
In a statement, the company said: “Capgemini is deeply committed to building a truly inclusive and diverse workplace, where everyone feels valued and respected.
“We continuously strengthen our culture of inclusion through employee networks, training, and open dialogue, ensuring that every voice is heard. We don’t comment on specific employees.”
An issue for businesses across the country
The Capgemini case is not remote or isolated. The decision has ramifications for businesses across the country, especially as rates of ADHD diagnosis are climbing.
Official data analysed by Sky News shows the number of people in work with disabilities or long-term health conditions has risen by 21% since the pandemic. That includes a 35% jump in workers with learning difficulties and mental conditions like ADHD.
Image: ADHD can manifest itself in a struggle to concentrate. Pic: iStock
Many of these people will already be in work and are being diagnosed as adults. This is a trend that is particularly pronounced among older women, with ADHD traditionally having been underdiagnosed in young girls.
However, it will also affect the future workforce. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the number of disabled children with ADHD as their main condition has more than doubled – from 38,000 in 2013 to 66,000 in 2023.
It means the profile of the workforce is changing, and businesses will have to think hard about how they can harness the potential and meet the needs of their workers to maximise their productivity.
A growing legal issue
Failure to do so could also have legal consequences. Although not every case of ADHD meets the definition of a disability, employment lawyers are increasingly receiving enquiries about possible discrimination related to neurodivergent conditions, especially since the pandemic.
Elizabeth McGlone, an employment lawyer at the law firm Didlaw, said every other enquiry she receives now relates to neurodiversity, up from one in every 10 or 20 before the pandemic.
“So the classic scenario is performance. They’re struggling at work in relation to time management, attendance, assimilating information, assimilating tasks, prioritising. And it’s not so much that they can’t do the job, they are just not having enough adjustments made to be able to do the job,” she said.
“I do think employers have greater responsibilities. I do also think it depends on the size and the resources of your business. So for a smaller business, it’s going to be much more difficult to make great changes. But some of the changes don’t have to be that significant.
“They can be as small as moving someone’s desk so they haven’t got as much surrounding noise, or making sure that they are taking regular rest breaks.”
Grey areas
However, not all cases are clear-cut. Neurodiversity sits on a spectrum, and a diagnosis can create grey areas for businesses, where it is difficult to determine how much of a role the condition is playing in an employee’s performance at work.
“You don’t want to be cynical,” said Ms McGlone.
“Obviously, you take everybody at face value, but I have had chronological circumstances where somebody has got performance issues, the employer isn’t aware of any diagnosis, then a diagnosis has been sought and confirmed… sometimes you do feel some element of it being contrived, but that’s very, very few and far between.”
British journalists have called on Sir Keir Starmer to protect their Gazan counterparts and press Israel to allow international reporters into the war zone.
A vigil was held opposite Downing Street on Wednesday for the nearly 200 journalists killed in Gaza since the war began in October 2023.
Ahead of the gathering, the National Union of Journalists’ (NUJ) London freelance branch handed a letter to Number 10 calling on the prime minister to clarify what steps the government is taking to protect journalists in Gaza and to ensure they have safe access to food, water and necessary equipment.
They also asked what the government is doing to get international journalists into Gaza to report freely. Currently, Israel only allows them in under IDF supervision.
Image: Journalists gathered outside Downing Street for a vigil. Pic: Reuters
At least 189 Palestinian journalists and media workers have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza since October 2023, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).
It is the deadliest period for journalists since the CPJ started gathering data in 1992.
Israel has repeatedly denied targeting reporters and accused some of those killed of being terrorists, including prominent Al Jazeera reporter Anas al-Sharif, who was killed two weeks ago.
The latest attack happened on Monday, when five journalists were among 21 people killed at Nasser Hospital in a “double tap” strike. Benjamin Netanyahu described it as a “tragic mishap”.
Journalists at the vigil held up placards with the names of Gazan journalists, many of whom were freelance, who have been killed. They read their names out.
Image: Journalists killed on Monday (L-R): Mohammed Salama, Moaz Abu Taha, Hussam al Masri, Ahmed Abu Aziz and Mariam Dagga
The will of Mariam Abu Daqqa, made days before her death on Monday, was read out, bringing tears to the eyes of seasoned reporters as it contained a message to her two children.
And a voice note from Al Jazeera’s Gaza bureau chief, Wael Dahdouh, whose son and grandchildren have been killed, was played out as he encouraged the government and British journalists to do everything possible to stop the war.
Image: NUJ representatives handed the letter into Number 10
‘Starmer can do something’
Mariam Elsayeh, NUJ ethics council representative and freelance journalist, told Sky News the UK has the power to protect journalists in Gaza and ensure international journalists are allowed in.
“We can do anything, we’re a great country, and we have the law and a prime minister who graduated from law school and is known for decades for his humanitarian support,” she said.
“During the Iraq War, we all witnessed him defending activists, and he was defending the freedom of protest, and he was doing a lot, so we are recalling this from history, and we know he can do something.”
Image: Mariam Elsayeh, from the NUJ, said Sir Keir Starmer needs to stand up for journalists
‘A generation has been erased’
She added that foreign journalists are needed “because a generation of journalists in Gaza have been erased”.
“I’m not just looking for foreign journalists to get into Gaza, I would hope to see the Pope asking to get into Gaza, I would hope to see ministers here asking to get into Gaza, I would hope politicians in the European parliament would get in,” she said.
“If you don’t want us to report, at least let people witness, allow politicians to enter.
“This is not insulting the Palestinian people, what the Israelis are doing is insulting the entire international community because they are not respecting anyone, so at least, respect international law.”
The fertility rate in England and Wales fell to its lowest level on record in 2024. It is the third consecutive year that record has been broken.
Other than a slight jump during the pandemic, birth rates have been falling consistently since 2010. On average, women now have 1.41 babies, compared with 1.42 in 2023 and 1.94 in 2010.
Rates in Scotland are even lower still, according to data released on Tuesday by National Records Scotland. Women there have an average of just 1.25 babies, falling from 1.77 in 2008.
To sustain the size of the global population, demographic experts say women need to have an average of 2.1 babies. This is what they call the “replacement rate”.
A similar rate is required to maintain the population of England and Wales, but it has been below that for more than 50 years. Despite that, the population has increased, largely as a result of immigration.
What’s happening in Britain reflects part of a global trend in declining fertility rates. In South Korea, the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world, women now have fewer than one baby on average – just 0.75.
Fertility remains high in many African countries, however. Somalia has the highest fertility rate in the world, with women there having more than six babies on average.
Despite the declining fertility rate, more babies were born in England and Wales in 2024 compared with 2023, although the 2023 figure was the lowest it had been since 1977.
This is because the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 between 2023 and 2024, mainly due to immigration. So a lower fertility rate is offset by there being more women in the country.
Although fertility rates are falling across England and Wales as a whole, they have risen slightly in London and the West Midlands.
Birmingham was the local authority with the largest increase, rising from 1.61 babies per woman in 2023 to 1.75 in 2024. The largest fall was in Maldon, in Essex, where the number fell from 1.59 to 1.37 per woman.
Since 2014, there has been a fall in fertility in every one of the 303 local authorities for which we have continuous data.
Luton, the local authority with the highest overall fertility rate, where women have an average of exactly two babies, recorded the smallest fall – dropping just 6% in the last 10 years.
In places like Torbay, in Devon, Denbighshire, in north Wales, and the City of Bristol, fertility has fallen by more than a third in the past decade.
Data released last month reveals more information about the demographic make-up of mothers in the UK.
There has been a steady and sustained fall in the number of babies born to British-born mothers, but in 2024 that was offset by an increase in births among those born abroad.
The rise is particularly pronounced among mothers who were born in southern Asia.
In 2024, there were 20,000 more babies born in England and Wales to mothers from that region than there were in 2021 – a rise of almost 50% in just three years.
Births to African mothers have also risen sharply over that period, although there has been an equally rapid fall in babies born to mothers from EU countries, coinciding with Brexit coming into effect.
In 2024, just over a third of babies born in England and Wales had mothers who were born outside the UK, but in some areas foreign-born mothers made up a much higher proportion.
In Luton, for example, which we mentioned earlier, has the highest fertility rate in England and Wales, seven in 10 babies were born to foreign-born mothers in 2024.
As of the 2021 census, the total foreign-born population of Luton was 38%, but many of the foreign-born population will be younger, in age groups more likely to have children.
Birth rates by age
Fertility rates for both men and women are now falling among every age group, and the birth rate among under-30s is the lowest it has ever been.
The number of births to women in their 30s had been rising early this century, but has been steadily falling over the last decade.
In 2024, the average number of babies born to mothers aged between 30 and 34 was the lowest it’s been in more than 20 years.
The average age that mothers have their first child is now 29 years and five months in England and Wales, although there are significant variations in different parts of the country.
In the North East, mothers have their first child shortly after their 28th birthday, on average. In London, it’s three years later – just after turning 31.
The financial burden of low fertility
A combination of women having fewer babies and people living longer means that there is a higher economic burden on each person of working age to support those in retirement.
Demographics expert Dr Paul Morland told Sky News: “In terms of economic society politics, the fundamental problem is that you get more people who are of retirement age [compared with] the number of people working.
“The workers are the ones who are doing the work, paying the taxes, and people over a certain age consume a lot in healthcare – an 80-something consumes five or six times as much as a 20-something.
“The triple lock in the UK means very often that pensioners, even at the very bottom, are better looked after than poor workers. This puts more and more pressure on the state and more and more pressure on labour markets.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.