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Democrats have groaned over the campaign return of Donald Trump and have braced for the unknown in an untested Ron DeSantis. 

But now, in the earliest days of the 2024 presidential cycle, the party in power is facing a new challenge: how to handle Nikki Haley.

The former South Carolina governor’s entrance into a wide-open field draws an obvious contrast with Trump, who Republicans have hesitated to take on too soon. For Democrats, it puts them in an unfamiliar spot: defending 80-year-old Biden against a 51-year-old rival hoping to be the first female president.

“If you haven’t figured out how to get this octogenarian off the stage, you really don’t know what you’re doing,” said Rina Shah, a Republican strategist and campaign veteran. “You don’t know how to move forward.”

Biden has, of course, faced female White House opponents before — the most famous being his own vice president, Kamala Harris, with whom he managed to turn an occasionally bitter rivalry into a partnership in his administration. He also competed against nearly half a dozen other female candidates. 

When Biden prevailed, for many Democrats it was bittersweet. They saw him beating Trump, but scores still wanted a woman to lead the country. They are now assessing the optics of Haley running against an older white man, and Republicans are also contemplating what it could mean for their own bench.  

“Gender and race are part of the calculation now because there are only two formally announced people,” Shah said. 

As Haley tells it, her campaign is not going to emphasize “identity politics,” a term both sides of the aisle use in different ways to highlight personal identifiers. But she’s already made gender and age a part of the early contours of her campaign. 

In her announcement speech on Wednesday, Haley said tackling global problems “will require doing some things we’ve never done — like sending a tough-as-nails woman to the White House.” At another point, she said, “may the best woman win” the election. 

Republicans have in the past struggled at appealing to female voters and recruiting more diverse candidates, and Democrats have often jumped at the chance to send more women to higher office. Haley’s bid, just days after newly elected Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders delivered the rebuttal to Biden’s State of the Union, is a clear indication of the GOP’s focus on broadening their candidate pool for higher office.  

“We’re talking about the presidential primary process. Republicans are actually going to come out looking really diverse at this,” Shah said. 

For Democrats, it presents a complicated situation. It’s no secret that many in the party want someone other than Biden to be the nominee. Some recent polling indicates that even a majority of Democrats would like an alternative. 

But many in the party and some close to the administration were quick to defend the president, noting that his agenda and track record supporting people from different backgrounds is what makes him a more compelling choice. 

Charlotte Clymer, a writer and Democratic political strategist, argued that Haley’s presence as a female contender in the race is not sufficient enough without inclusive policies.

“Representation means nothing without advocacy,” Clymer said. 

“I would rather vote for a man who I know is going to fight for my rights over a woman who makes a mockery of my humanity with her empty pandering,” she added. 

Other Democrats note that Biden has filled top positions in government with a wide range of talent, showing a commitment to many different voices and ideas. 

“President Biden has one of the most diverse, multi racial coalitions we have seen in recent political history,” said one Democratic strategist who formerly worked for Hillary Clinton. 

“He has prioritized elevating women, people of color, young people and other minority constituencies throughout his presidency. That approach to governing, and that enduring coalition will help him ward off any critiques that would be expected of an 80-year-old, white man running for reelection,” the campaign strategist said. 

When Biden chose Harris — the first Black, Indian American and female vice president — to be his running mate, some had hoped she would be the heir-apparent for 2024. But that hasn’t happened as questions about Harris’s direction and role in the White House have piled up throughout the first term. 

On Friday, Harris said “I intend to run” for vice president again alongside Biden, a phrase the president himself often uses to describe his reelection thought process.

But the idea that she may be eyeing the presidency is on the minds of Republicans and Democrats alike, especially as Haley entered the race. 

“A hypothetical matchup between Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley, I think Nikki actually could pull that off,” Shah said. 

Still, with every indication that Biden intends to launch another campaign, Democrats are currently navigating a GOP field that includes just Haley and Trump.  

The current scarcity of Republican candidates so far allows Haley, still relatively new to the national stage, to set up an inherent identity contrast with Biden. She’s already addressed what she sees as his inadequacies directly, at times skirting questions that she’ll have to face off against what’s expected to be a crowded field of GOP aspirants first.  

While some Democrats have made Biden’s age a topic of debate, Haley wasted no time in crafting a message around what she describes as being in need of “a new generation to lead us into the future.”

“We’re ready. Ready to move past the stale ideas and faded names of the past,” she said, kicking off her bid. 

Haley got an unexpected bump of momentum the day after her campaign launch when CNN anchor Don Lemon made a remark about her being past her “prime” in a segment about her candidacy, going on to say that women who are not in their 20s, 30s or 40s are not considered “prime” ages.  

Republican women seized on Lemon’s remarks. 

“So Don Lemon says Nikki Haley is past her prime as a woman. Didn’t take long for the first sexist attack on a female Republican candidate for president,” tweeted Karin Lips, a lawyer and conservative activist, garnering a retweet from Haley. 

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) added: “Nothing terrifies liberals more than successful conservative women. When liberals feel threatened, they resort to sexist nonsense like this.” 

Democrats have often contended that the media’s coverage of female candidates is sexist. When Clinton ran in 2016, she built a messaging and fundraising apparatus around what would be a historic moment towards more gender equality. Four years later, and after four years of Trump, several prominent female candidates launched bids of their own. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) made persistence a key part of her slogan, reminding voters of when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) tried to quiet her on the Senate floor.  North Korea fires two more missiles into Pacific ‘firing range’ Zelensky on Biden visit to Ukraine: ‘Historic. Timely. Brave.’

With Biden likely to be at the top of the ticket again, Democrats are dancing carefully around his age, as well as less-than-ideal options of again putting forward a white man at the top of the ticket when both parties are looking for more diversity.  

While he may be the face of the Democratic Party for now, some say his policy priorities, Cabinet and top aides speak for themselves and are hoping they will shield him from too much criticism. 

“Joe Biden fights for all people. Nikki Haley fights for Nikki Haley,” Clymer said. “Marginalized communities will easily rally around Biden versus Haley.”

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CFP Anger Index: Better call Paul — the committee is disrespecting the SEC

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CFP Anger Index: Better call Paul -- the committee is disrespecting the SEC

The committee has released its second crack at the top 25, and it’s (almost) all Big Ten at the top.

That might seem a bit strange to the conference that boasts the most playoff-caliber teams and the most nonconference wins against other Power 4 leagues, and also has Paul Finebaum there to remind everyone just how angry they should be at this affront to good judgment.

With that, we’ll handle much of Finebaum’s homework for him. Here’s this week’s Anger Index.

1. The SEC

Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, and one thing seems abundantly clear: The SEC is the best conference in college football. Take a look at Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, for example, where nine of the top 17 teams are from the SEC. Or use ESPN’s FPI metric, where the SEC has spots 1, 2, 4, 5 and 9. Consider that the team currently ninth in the SEC standings, South Carolina, has three wins over SP+ top-40 teams and losses to the committee’s No. 10 and 22 teams by a combined total of five points.

Yes, the SEC’s dominance and depth seem obvious.

So, of course, four of the top five teams in the committee’s rankings this week are from the SEC.

Wait, no, sorry about that. We’re getting late word here that, in fact, it’s the Big Ten with teams No. 1, 2, 4 and 5 in this week’s rankings.

It’s not that those four Big Ten teams aren’t any good. Oregon (No. 1) has chewed up and spit out nearly all comers this season. Ohio State (No. 2) is the best squad the gross domestic product of Estonia can buy. Penn State (No. 4), well, the Nittany Lions still haven’t beaten Ohio State, but we assume the rest of the résumé is OK. Indiana (No. 5) is blowing the doors off people.

But that’s it. The rest of the Big Ten is a mess. You need a magnifying glass to find Michigan‘s QB production. Iowa finally learned how to score and somehow has gotten worse. Minnesota looked like the next-best team in the conference, and the Gophers have losses to North Carolina and Rutgers.

A lack of depth does not inherently mean the teams at the top are not elite. Indeed, the other teams in any conference remain independent variables when addressing the ceiling for any one team. If the Kansas City Chiefs joined the Sun Belt, Patrick Mahomes would still be a magician and Andy Reid would still be saying “Bundle-a-rooskie-doo” in your nightmares.

But the cold, hard facts are these: Indiana’s best win came last week against Michigan (No. 40 in SP+) by 3. Penn State’s best win (by SP+) came by 3 against a below-.500 USC team that just benched its QB. Ohio State is absolutely elite on paper, but on the field, the Buckeyes’ success is entirely buoyed by a 20-13 win at Penn State, a team we also know very little about.

The SEC gets flack for boasting of its greatness routinely, and to be sure, that narrative has often bolstered less-than-elite teams. But this year, every reasonable metric suggests the SEC’s production actually matches its ego, and when Ole Miss (No. 11), Georgia (No. 12), Alabama (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 15) — all with two losses — are dogged as a result of playing in a league where every other team warrants a spot in the top 25, it undermines the entire point of having a committee that can use its judgment rather than simply look at the standings.


Let’s compare two teams with blind résumés.

Team A: 8-1 record, No. 14 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 20, loss came to a top-10 team by 3. Has four wins vs. Power 4 teams with a winning record, by an average of 14 points.

Team B: 8-1 record, No. 11 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 28, loss came to a top-15 team by 15. Has one win vs. a Power 4 team with a winning record, by 3.

So, which team has the better résumé?

This shouldn’t take too long to figure out. Team A looks better by almost every metric, right?

Well, Team A is SMU, who checks in at No. 14 in this week’s ranking.

Team B, though? That’d be the Mustangs’ old friends from the Southwest Conference, the Texas Longhorns. Texas checks in at No. 3.

Perhaps you’ve watched enough of both Texas and SMU to think the eye test favors the Longhorns. That’s fair. But should the eye test account for 11 spots in the rankings? At some point, the results have to matter more.

Or, perhaps it’s the brand that matters to the committee. If that same résumé belonged to a school that hadn’t just bought its way into the Power 4 this year, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be in the top 10 with ease.


Let’s dig into three different teams still hoping for a playoff bid, even if the odds are against them at this point.

Team A: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ top 40. No. 28 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 18 points.

Team B: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ top 40. No. 25 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 13 points.

Team C: 7-2, no wins over SP+ top 40. No. 24 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 21 points.

You could split hairs here, but the bottom line is none has a particularly compelling résumé, and they’re all pretty similar.

So, who are they?

Team B is Iowa State, which plummeted from the rankings after losing two straight. But the committee isn’t supposed to care when you lost your games. Losing in September is not better than losing in November. At least that’s what they say.

Team A is Arizona State. Its 10-point loss to Cincinnati came without starting QB Sam Leavitt and was due, at least in part, to a kicking game so traumatic head coach Kenny Dillingham held an open tryout afterward. The Sun Devils and Cyclones are two of three two-loss Power 4 teams unranked this week (alongside Pitt), but unlike Iowa State and Pitt, Arizona State isn’t coming off back-to-back losses. The Sun Devils’ absence seems entirely correlated to the fact that no one believed this team would be any good entering the season, and so few people have looked closely enough to change their minds that the committee feels comfortable ignoring them.

The team the committee can’t ignore, however, is Team C. That would be Colorado. Coach Prime has convinced the world the Buffaloes are for real, even if nothing on their résumé — a No. 77 strength of schedule, worse than 7-2 Western Kentucky‘s — suggests that’s anything close to a certainty.

The Big 12 remains wide open, but it’s to the committee’s detriment that it has so eagerly dismissed two of the better teams just because they’re not as fun to talk about.


Has Missouri played with fire this year? You betcha. Just last week, the Tigers were on the verge of falling to Oklahoma before the Sooners’ woeful QB situation reared its ugly head again and the game ended in a 30-23 Tigers win.

But here’s the thing about playing with fire: So long as you don’t turn your living room into an inferno, it’s actually pretty impressive.

Missouri is 7-2 with wins against SP+ Nos. 26 and 28, and its only losses are to the committee’s No. 10 and No. 15 teams. SP+ has Missouri at No. 17, though we can chalk that up to Connelly’s hometown bias. But No. 23? After a top-10 season in 2023, don’t the Tigers deserve a little benefit of the doubt? They currently trail three three-loss teams (Louisville, South Carolina and LSU) and are behind Boise State, Colorado, Washington State and Clemson, who, combined, have exactly one win over SP+ top-40 teams.

There’s a good chance that, should Brady Cook not return to the lineup, Missouri will get waxed at South Carolina on Saturday, and then the argument is moot. But the committee isn’t supposed to look ahead and take guesses at what it believes might happen (Florida State’s snub last year notwithstanding). It’s supposed to judge based on what’s on the books so far, and putting Missouri this far down the rankings seems more than a tad harsh.


The committee threw a nice bone to the non-Power 4 schools this week, with four teams ranked, including No. 25 Tulane Green Wave. That seems deserved, given Tulane’s recent run. But what is it, exactly, that puts the Green Wave ahead of UNLV?

UNLV has the No. 31 strength of record. Tulane is No. 32.

UNLV has the No. 98 strength of schedule played. Tulane is No. 96.

Tulane has a one-possession loss to a top-20 team. UNLV has a one-possession loss to a top-20 team.

The key difference between the two is UNLV has wins against two Power 4 opponents — Houston and Kansas. Houston, by the way, just knocked off Kansas State, a team that beat Tulane.

So perhaps the committee should spread a bit more love outside the Power 4.

Also Angry: Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, unranked), Duke Blue Devils (7-3, unranked), Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, No. 12), Utah Utes AD Mark Harlan (the Utes would be ranked if Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark hadn’t rigged the system!) and UConn Huskies (7-3, unranked and thus prohibiting us from Jim Mora Jr. giving a “You wanna talk about playoffs?!?” rant).

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Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency

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Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is to officially join Trump’s administration as the co-head of the new US Department of Government Efficiency – a second federal department with the goal of making government spending more efficient.

You can’t get more ironic than that.

Throughout the elections, Musk, who is already CEO of Tesla, and SpaceX, a well as the defacto head of X, xAI, Neuralink, and the Boring Company, has been floating the idea to add to his workload by joining the Trump’s administration to lead a new department aimed at making the federal government more efficient.

He has been calling it the “Department of Government Efficiency”, which spells out ‘DOGE’, a meme that Musk appears to enjoy.

Well, now Trump appears to want to be going through with this idea.

He announced the new department and Musk as head, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, in a statement today:

I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”). Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies – Essential to the “Save America” Movement. “This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” stated Mr. Musk.

What’s most ironic is that there’s already a federal department with the goal of cutting government waste and ensuring efficiency: the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

The GAO’s main objectives are:

  • auditing agency operations to determine whether federal funds are being spent efficiently and effectively;
  • investigating allegations of illegal and improper activities;
  • reporting on how well government programs and policies are meeting their objectives;
  • performing policy analyses and outlining options for congressional consideration;
  • issuing legal decisions and opinions;
  • advising Congress and the heads of executive agencies about ways to make government more efficient and effective

It sounds similar to what Musk described when talking about his DOGE, but Trump hasn’t gone into many details other than it will “cut waste.”

He also has a confusing message as he compares the initiative, which is supposed to cut government spending, to “The Manhattan project”, a massive and expensive government project.

Trump said that DOGE will help the government “drive large scale structural reform”:

It will become, potentially, “The Manhattan Project” of our time. Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of “DOGE” for a very long time. To drive this kind of drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.

The statement also noted that DOGE will only operate until July 4, 2026.

Musk has previously claimed that he could cut at least $2 trillion dollars of the $6.5 trillion dollar US federal budget.

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Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

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Oil could plunge to  in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024. 

Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.

“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.

“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.

A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.

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Oil prices year-to-date

Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC. 

Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”

However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.

Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.

Martoccia Francesco

Energy strategist at Citi

The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.

In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September. 

At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.

Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.

Bearish year ahead for oil

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