How the pitch clock would change the greatest moments in MLB history
Kirk Gibson’s at-bat in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, from the moment he hobbles out of the dugout to Vin Scully exclaiming, “She is gone!” as the ball sails into the right-field bleachers, lasts 6 minutes and 48 seconds.
Not that anyone was putting a timer on it 35 years ago.
Gibson, fighting an injured left hamstring and ailing right knee, delivered perhaps the most dramatic home run in World Series history with his game-winning pinch-hit blast off Dennis Eckersley, slowly circling the bases with his iconic celebration.
But how would it and other famous moments packed with postseason drama have played out now that we will be timing every pitch with the new pitch clock rules coming to MLB in 2023?
The new rules are intended to speed up the game and create a more constant pace of action. With no runners on base, pitchers will have 15 seconds to throw a pitch after receiving the ball from the catcher. With runners on base, the timer moves to 20 seconds. Pitchers will also be allowed only two “disengagements” per plate appearance (pickoff attempts or stepping off the rubber). These changes had a significant effect in the minors, shortening games by 25 minutes, and having attended a few minor league games myself in 2022, the quicker pace was certainly noticeable and is a necessary change for the game.
These changes will also require major adjustments for major league pitchers who are used to stalking behind the mound to regroup after every pitch, and hitters who step out and adjust their batting gloves after every foul ball. I thought of the potential impact of the pitch clock while watching the Gibson game this winter and realized how slowly that moment builds to its climax — Gibson on his two bad legs, trying to collect himself between pitches and somehow deliver the impossible.
Starting with Gibson’s epic home run, let’s take a look back at a few moments from baseball history and consider how a pitch clock might have changed them.
1988 World Series: Gibson homers off Eckersley
The dramatic stage of this moment begins as soon as Gibson steps out of the dugout to pinch hit and Vin Scully pronounces “And look who’s coming up” as Dodgers fans rise to their feet. It concludes when the eighth pitch from Eckersley lands in the right-field bleachers and Scully exclaims, “She is gone!”
The moment unfolds over the nerves of postseason baseball, over the hope of unexpected elation. Gibson takes his practice swings in the on-deck circle to loosen up as Eckersley paws at the pitching rubber and A’s manager Tony La Russa paces in front of the bench. Gibson limps to the plate, digs a foothold, steps back out of the box to take another swing and adjusts his helmet, finally ready. It’s 1 minute and 17 seconds from the first sighting of Gibson until Eckersley goes into his stretch for the first pitch, with the A’s leading the Dodgers 4-3 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and Mike Davis on first base.
During the course of the at-bat, Eckersley would throw four times to first base and his catcher Ron Hassey would also try a back-pick on Davis on the fourth pitch. Gibson also fouled off four pitches, including a little dribbler down the first-base line. Finally, on the eighth pitch of the at-bat, nearly seven minutes after he first took the ball, Eckersley tried to beat Gibson with a backdoor slider. Gibson swings. And the rest is history.
Let’s clock the elapsed time from when Eckersley receives the ball until he starts his motion between each pitch to see what would — and wouldn’t — be allowable with baseball’s new 2023 rules.
Pitch No. 1: It takes 1:17 from the time Gibson steps out of the dugout until Eckersley begins his delivery. Foul ball.
Of note here: The rules set a 30-second timer between batters, so Gibson’s measured approach to getting ready would be a violation of the rules, although we’ll have see what kind of leniency is given to pinch-hitters, especially ones who aren’t already on the on-deck circle, as was the case with Gibson.
Pickoff throw to first base: 25.3 seconds.
Gibson stepped out of the box after the foul ball. Under the new rules, batters must be in the batter’s box and ready to hit with at least eight seconds on the timer. They are allowed one timeout per plate appearance.
Pitch No. 2: 18.5 seconds after Eckersley got the ball back from the first baseman. Foul ball.
Gibson had stepped out again, but this pitch got in just under the clock.
Pickoff throw to first base: 19.5 seconds.
Gibson steps out again, Eckersley throws to first base.
Pickoff throw to first base: 18.9 seconds
A third disengagement. Violation! This will be allowed if the pickoff is successful; otherwise, it will be considered a balk.
Pitch No. 3: 12.4 seconds. Foul ball
The little dribbler down the first-base line.”It had to be an effort to run that far,” Scully declares as Gibson walks back to retrieve his bat, informing us that Gibson was too banged up to even come on the field for pregame introductions.
Pitch No. 4: 34.4 seconds. Ball.
On the broadcast, we don’t see exactly when Eckersley gets a new ball from the umpire, but I estimate 34-35 seconds between pitches, as Eckersley waits for Gibson to hobble back to the batter’s box and get ready. Hassey attempts the back-pick on this pitch.
Pitch No. 5: 21.3 seconds. Foul ball.
Most of the delays here are coming from Gibson, not Eckersley. A reminder that the timer doesn’t affect just the pitchers.
Pitch No. 6: 23.2 seconds. Ball.
Davis was running on the previous pitch, so there’s a slight delay as he returns to first base and Gibson steps out to shake his left leg, “making it quiver like a horse,” as Scully tells us.
Throw to first base: 17.5 seconds.
Another violation! A fourth disengagement.
Pitch No. 7: 17.7 seconds. Ball.
Davis steals second base. Hassey goes out to the mound, which does not count as a disengagement (if a team has used up all five of its mound visits prior to the ninth inning, it will be allowed a sixth visit).
Pitch No. 8: 1:03.6 seconds. Home run.
That’s over a minute between pitches thanks to the Hassey-Eckersley meeting. Hassey goes back and squats down, and then Gibson again steps out of the box. It’s 28 seconds from the time Hassey squats until Eckersley throws his pitch.
The 2023 rules takeaway: So let’s see here, under 2023 rules: Multiple clock violations … Gibson steps out too many times … Eckersley throws over to first base too many times. While there is no doubt that the game does need to speed up, there will also understandably be calls to eliminate the pitch clock for the postseason.
Indeed, agent Scott Boras already made that declaration earlier this winter. “In the postseason, there clearly should be no pitch clock,” he told reporters. “It’s the moment, the big moment. They need to reflect, they need more time, it’s a different scenario than the regular season, and we do not want their performances rushed.”
Let’s go to a more recent moment. The signature home run of the 2022 postseason was Harper’s go-ahead blast in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the NLCS to send the Philadelphia Phillies to the World Series. The fans had been electric and loud all day despite a light drizzle that fell throughout most of the game, knowing a win would mean clinching the pennant in Philadelphia and a loss would send the series back to San Diego. Harper had already hit four home runs in the postseason, and it just felt like something big was going to happen. Even John Smoltz, calling the game, sensed it: “You don’t think when Bryce Harper signed that megadeal he had visions of having a chance to send his team to the World Series?”
Pitch No. 1: 1:17. Swing and a miss.
With a runner on base and the Phillies down 3-2, Harper takes his time, wiping down his bat in the on-deck circle. Adjusts his batting gloves. A couple swipes of dirt. Steps out. Looks out at Suarez. More dirt. Suarez steps off. More dirt. Finally, Harper taps the plate with his bat and he’s ready. It took him longer than 30 seconds.
Pitch No. 2: 25.9 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 3: 22.7 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 4: 23.1 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 5: 25.5 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 6: 28.9 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 7: 23.1 seconds. Home run.
Seven pitches. None delivered within the 20-second rule or even particularly close to within 20 seconds before Harper hits his NLCS-winning home run.
The 2023 rules takeaway: How does this play out in 2023, without Harper adjusting his gloves and Suarez taking his very deep breaths between every pitch?
Watching Harper take his time to wipe his bat in the rain, tap the plate and adjust his batting gloves is a good example of why the pitch clock isn’t just about pitchers. In fact, it’s possible the biggest adjustments here will have to come from batters. MLB reported that the average fastball velocity in the minors remained the same in 2022 as in 2021 — 93.0 mph — so perhaps pitcher velocity won’t be affected as some have surmised (we’ll see about command).
Hitters who constantly step out to adjust their batting gloves and contemplate the next pitch will have to speed up their approach.
The Baseball Savant website tracks a number for each pitcher called pitch tempo, which is the time between pitches. It’s not exactly the same thing as a pitch timer as it measures the overall time between pitch releases. We can subtract about six seconds from that number to use as a proxy for the pitch timer.
They also have pitch tempo listed for 378 batters. The three slowest with the bases empty in 2022 were Christian Vazquez, J.D. Martinez and Mark Canha. Harper, Pete Alonso and Kyle Tucker are three stars near the bottom. Overall, however, only nine batters averaged 15 seconds or more between pitches using our adjusted methodology. With runners on base, it’s worth noting that four of the eight slowest were Mets: Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Alonso and Canha.
2001 World Series: Arizona Diamondbacks rally against Mariano Rivera
The most dominant reliever of all time, Rivera, was closing out what would have been the New York Yankees‘ fifth World Series title in six years in the bottom of the ninth in 2001, holding a 2-1 lead over the Diamondbacks. I won’t go through every pitch, but it’s clear Rivera was not the reason the Yankees of that era — or, really, the Yankees of the past three decades — were notorious for long games.
The entire two-run rally for the Diamondbacks took just under 10 minutes from Rivera’s first pitch to Mark Grace to the moment Luis Gonzalez’s blooper dropped just beyond the infield dirt. Rivera threw 14 pitches and faced six different batters, but there were also two pinch-runners, one pinch-hitter, two conferences at the mound and one quick visit by the trainer after Derek Jeter got tangled up at second base on Rivera’s wide throw on a sacrifice bunt.
Rivera worked very quickly. When he faced Tony Womack with two runners on, his times between pitches were 13.3 seconds, 12.4, 13.5 and 18.7. After Gonzalez fouled off the first pitch from Rivera, he dug in the batter’s box and then stepped out, leaving 29.7 seconds between pitches. I guess he picked the right pitch to think about, and we can only wonder what the result would have been had he not been able to take that much time to collect himself mid-at-bat.
The 2023 rules takeaway: Watching this inning, Rivera looks like Michael Phelps compared to most of today’s relievers, who pitch with the urgency of the old guy swimming laps at the YMCA. So maybe there is hope for today’s relievers: If the greatest closer of all time can pitch fast, why can’t even the slowest workers in today’s game?
Speaking of which, I’m going to pick on Jansen, one of the game’s current notorious slow workers. Going back to Baseball Savant’s pitch tempo: Jansen’s tempo with the bases empty in 2022 was 25.8 seconds, which ranked 397th out of 399 pitchers listed. His tempo with runners on base was 31.4 seconds — slowest of all. Take six seconds off those numbers and we get 19.8 and 25.4 seconds — still well above the allotted times of 15 and 20 seconds.
Let’s examine the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2020 World Series, which ended with a wild Brett Phillips walk-off single that scored two runs for the Rays with the help of a couple of Dodgers miscues. Jansen would face five batters and throw 21 pitches — a half-inning (or two outs, actually) that would last 14 minutes and 38 seconds until Randy Arozarena stumbled home with the winning run.
The time between pitches, starting with the second pitch to Yoshi Tsutsugo:
Pitch No. 2: 17.4 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 3: 21.3 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 4: 22.1 seconds. Swinging strike.
Pitch No. 5: 21.5 seconds. Swinging strike.
Tsutsugo strikes out, and Kevin Kiermaier comes up.
Pitch No. 6: 31.4 seconds. Base hit.
Kiermaier was in the box at a reasonable 21 seconds after Tsutsugo’s strikeout, no delays here to adjust his batting gloves or wipe extra pine tar on the bat. Joey Wendle‘s at-bat begins with Kiermaier on first.
Throw to first: 30.8 seconds.
Pitch No. 7: 22.5 seconds. Ball.
Throw to first: 21.4 seconds.
Pitch No. 8: 18.3 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 9: 28.5 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 10: 25.0 seconds. Lineout to left.
Arozarena steps in, and the Dodgers hold a meeting at the mound with the pitching coach.
Pitch No. 11: 1 minute, 19 seconds. Strike.
Jansen steps off: 18.8 seconds.
Pitch No. 12: 15.1 seconds. Ball.
Throw to first: 23.6 seconds.
Pitch No. 13: 16.9 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 14: 33.4 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 15: 28.4 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 16: 26.0 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 17: 35.5 seconds. Ball four.
Following Arozarena’s walk, Phillips comes up with runners on first and second.
Pitch No. 18: 55.8 seconds. Ball.
Phillips and Jansen took a lot longer to get ready compared to Kiermaier and Wendle (it appeared it was mostly Jansen, who might have tossed out one ball to get a different one).
Pitch No. 19: 19.1 seconds. Strike.
Pitch No. 20: 38.3 seconds. Strike.
Pitch No. 21: 26.9 seconds. Base hit.
The 2023 rules takeaway: Most of these delays were on Jansen. He often walks behind the rubber after getting the return throw from the catcher and loves to hold the ball before delivering the pitch. He has since added that goofy little hip jerk he does that delays things even further. Foul balls certainly slow things down — and there are more foul balls than ever — but Jansen’s slow beat is a prime example of what MLB is trying to fix.
1978 World Series: Bob Welch fans Reggie Jackson
OK, let’s do one more — a reminder that even decades ago, when the game was generally pitched at a quicker pace, there were still moments when time slowed down.
Welch, the Dodgers’ 21-year-old rookie, faced Mr. October in the bottom of the ninth with two runners on and two outs in Game 2. In a nine-pitch battle for the ages, Welch threw one 100 mph fastball after another before finally striking out Jackson.
The timer:
Pitch No. 1: 16.1 seconds. Swinging strike. (We don’t see the entire sequence of Jackson stepping into the box.)
Pitch No. 2: 24.7 seconds. Ball.
Jackson gets knocked down and takes time to regroup.
Pitch No. 3: 37.0 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 4: 36.2 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 5: 22.5 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 6: 30.9 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 7: 32.6 seconds. Foul ball.
Pitch No. 8: 29.0 seconds. Ball.
Pitch No. 9: Swinging strike.
Jackson, wiping his brow between pitches, took swings so mighty he nearly twisted himself into the ground. One fastball after another, Jackson certainly was not interested in hitting a puny little single. Jackson would smash his bat in the dugout in frustration. “The kid beat me,” he said after the game.
The 2023 rules takeaway: Most of the delays here came from Jackson stepping out of the box to gear up for another Herculean swing. Even though this at-bat came more than four decades ago, it signifies much of what big postseason moments are about in today’s game. You have the home run-hitting slugger at the plate taking a big swing against a power pitcher’s best 100 mph heater. And then he steps out, regroups and heads back in to do it at all again. We will soon find out how different that dramatic sequence really feels with a clock dictating the pace.
Roger Angell once wrote, “Since baseball time is measured only in outs, all you have to do is succeed utterly; keep hitting, keep the rally alive, and you have defeated time. You remain forever young.” This is true: It’s the game without a clock. Except, as Bill James has pointed out, early baseball did have a clock. In the first half of the 20th century, before lights and night games became de rigueur, games started in the late afternoon to accommodate workers and had to be played at a brisk pace to finish before nightfall. The sun was the clock. Now we have an official one.
After watching all of these classic moments again, I do feel the pitch clock is needed. For one thing: Many of these playoff moments now happen at the end of games that are approaching four hours in length and nearing midnight on the East Coast. We can all agree that speeding up games in the middle of a long regular season will be a positive. Even the players, some of whom will initially complain about the adjustments they need to make, will come around and appreciate the faster pace. Yet, it’s hard to deny how the drama builds throughout the rally or the one critical at-bat, the pitcher trying to breathe.
Now we just have to figure out what the ruling will be when Edwin Diaz is facing Julio Rodriguez in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 2023 World Series with the Citi Field crowd screaming so loud that Diaz can’t hear the PitchCom device as the clock is counting down, and he has to motion to his catcher while Rodriguez steps out for the second time right as the timer hits zero.
This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
-
Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike