‘Unpredictable’ election in Africa’s largest economy is set to resonate around the world

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2 years ago

February 22, 2023

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ABUJA, Niger,a – Feb. 18, 2023: Supporters of Nigeria’s Labour Party parade in the streets during a global march for the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi ahead of the Nigerian presidential election scheduled for February 25, 2023.

KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images

Nigerians head to the polls on Saturday, with an unprecedented youth turnout expected against a backdrop of widespread insecurity and economic hardship.

After 24 years of uninterrupted democracy since ending military dictatorship in 1999, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy is conducting its seventh election.

Nigeria is at a pivotal juncture amid record unemployment and inflation, a massive debt burden, fuel shortages, worsening security conditions, endemic corruption and crumbling public services.

The record 93.5 million Nigerians registered to vote will choose among 18 candidates to replace President Muhammadu Buhari, who has reached the two-term limit.

Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s president, speaks during the U.S.-Africa Business Forum in New York.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The aspiring successor chosen by the ruling All Progressives Congress party, 70-year-old former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu, is a frontrunner alongside former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, and Peter Obi, a relative outsider from the Labor Party.

Obi’s disruptive and decentralized campaign has resonated with young and professional voters disillusioned by the two main parties, and some polls now have him leading the race.

Leena Koni Hoffmann, associate fellow of the Africa Programme at Chatham House, told CNBC on Monday that the presidential election will be the “most unpredictable” since the transition to civilian rule.

“We haven’t had these technologies shaping Nigeria’s elections before, and we’ve never had a three-way race before, and the context is not primed for an easy incumbent win,” Koni Hoffmann explained. The Independent National Electoral Commission is rolling out an unprecedented technological innovations to ensure a free and fair election.

ABUJA, Nigeria – Feb. 20, 2023: Former South African President Thabo Mbeki speaks to media. The Commonwealth of Nations sent 16 observers for the presidential and governorship elections to be held on 25 February and 11 March in Nigeria.

Adam Abu-Bashal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

During a period in which West Africa has been beset by coups and violent extremism, Hoffmann added that the region “needs Nigeria to have a credible election.”

A deluge of international observers arrives this week, including a mission led by former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson and a Commonwealth of Nations delegation headed by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. The U.S. has also announced visa bans on individuals identified as undermining confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.

Demographics

Nigeria has one of the world’s fastest-growing populations — currently near 220 million and forecast to double by 2050. It also has one of the world’s youngest average populations, with 42% of citizens under the age of 15 and a median age of just over 18, the UN estimates.

Political engagement has spiked in recent years, amid deteriorating prospects for Nigeria’s youth — eras of economic growth have not expanded opportunities, social inequality has increased, and youth unemployment hit 42.5%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Almost 40% of registered voters are between 18 and 34, according to INEC.

IBADAN, Nigeria – Feb. 16, 2023: Supporters of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), parade during the party’s presidential campaign in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Adekunle Ajayi/NurPhoto via Getty Images

“Recent years have been particularly brutal for young people in Nigeria, having to live through two recessions and a failing economy and with inflation in double digits and the impact of food inflation,” Koni Hoffmann said.

Four in 10 Nigerians experience monetary deprivation and more than six out of 10 are “multidimensionally poor,” the National Bureau of Statistics finds.

“The kind of social mobility and independence that you would project for yourself in your early twenties, the last couple of years haven’t allowed young people that kind of space for pursuing opportunity, for self-determination, so that explains a lot of the frustration and discontent,” Koni Hoffman said.

Economy

First Lady Aisha Muhammadu Buhari in September apologized to Nigerians for the economic problems and growing insecurity they have experienced since her husband was elected in 2015. Alongside the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine, Koni Hoffmann noted “missed opportunities” and “self-inflicted crises” under Buhari’s regime.

In 2019, the government closed goods movement through Nigeria’s borders with neighboring Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, ostensibly to stem smuggling of rice and other agricultural goods.

Economists panned the decision, which Koni Hoffmann suggested rendered Nigeria and its neighbors more vulnerable to the damage of the pandemic.

The administration has come under fire for its multiple exchange rate system, aimed at defending the domestic naira currency by artificially inflating its value. Critics argue that such interventions heighten volatility by driving greater fluctuations in price discovery.

The oil sector accounts for more than 80% of national budgetary revenues, leaving Abuja highly susceptible to oil price variations and low production due to large scale crude theft.

KANO, Nigeria – Feb. 9, 2023: Supporters carry banner of candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar and running mate Ifeanyi Okowa during a campaign rally in Kano, northwest Nigeria.

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images

Tinubu’s foreign exchange policies are unlikely to deviate from those of the current administration, analysts say, while Abubakar and Obi propose more liberal economic measures and diversification, alongside greater fiscal prudence.

“No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term, but victory for an opposition candidate could make the fiscal outlook considerably brighter further down the line,” said Virág Fórizs, Africa economist at Capital Economics.

“Opposition parties’ fiscal discipline pledges put Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi in a better position to get Nigeria’s fiscal house in order.”

Fórizs concluded, “The upshot is that, from an economic standpoint, the polls offer a choice between marginal steps away from growth-sapping policies and a more meaningful shift towards pro-market reforms that could unlock Nigeria’s economic potential down the line but involve near-term economic pain.”

Security

Buhari took office vowing to tackle Islamist militant organization Boko Haram, whose insurgency killed thousands and displaced millions.

Government forces seemingly succeeded, reclaiming large swathes of territory from the jihadist group. However, the extremist contingent splintered into competing groups in the north, complicating the challenge facing the incoming president.

Meanwhile, cattle bandits terrorize the north-central and northwest states, secessionists in the southeast clash with police and cattle herders battle farmers in “middle belt” states.

The Council on Foreign Relations Security Tracker documented around 7,000 violent deaths in Nigeria in 2022, down from 9,000 in 2021. It also confirmed an increase in state violence against civilians.

ABUJA, Nigeria – Oct. 20, 2021: A young woman stand in front of riot policemen during a protest to commemorate one year anniversary of EndSars, a protest movement against police brutality at the Unity Fountain in Abuja.

KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images

This came to a head in late 2020, when thousands of young people demonstrated countrywide against police brutality. Security forces sought to violently quash the protests, culminating in the Lekki Toll Gate massacre in October 2020.

Peter Obi, the 61-year-old former governor of Anambra State, rode that wave with a vision for policy and governance reforms, including proposals for tackling deep-rooted insecurity and corruption, while promoting social and political mobility.

“The dominant parties did not seem to provide the kinds of channels or vessels that young people wanted, so they have turned to Peter Obi, who is the nearest proximate for them, for how various sections of young people in Nigeria would like to remake the nation’s politics,” said Hoffmann.

Environment

A 100-MW solar farm just broke ground in Wisconsin

Published

7 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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A 100-MW solar farm just broke ground in Wisconsin

Wisconson solar — Image: National Grid Renewables

National Grid Renewables has broken ground on its 100 MW Apple River Solar Project in Polk County, Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin solar farm, which will use US-made First Solar Series 6 Plus bifacial modules, will be constructed by The Boldt Company, creating 150 construction and service jobs. Apple River Solar will generate over $36 million in direct economic benefits over its first 20 years.

Once it comes online in late 2025, Apple River Solar will supply clean energy to Xcel Energy, which serves customers throughout the Upper Midwest. According to National Grid Renewables, the solar farm will generate enough energy to power around 26,000 homes annually. It will also offset about 129,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year – equivalent to taking 30,900 cars off the road.

“We are excited to see this project begin as it underscores our dedication to delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy to our customers,” said Karl Hoesly, President, Xcel Energy-Wisconsin and Michigan. “This project is an important step in those goals while bringing significant economic benefits to Polk County and the local townships.”

Electrek reported in February that Xcel Energy, Minnesota’s largest utility, expects to cut more than 80% – and possibly up to 88% – of its emissions by 2030, putting it on track to hit Minnesota’s goal of net zero by 2040. It also says it’s on track to achieve its clean energy goals for all the Upper Midwest states it serves – Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan.

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Environment

Tesla announces 500 kW charging as it finally delivers V4 Supercharger cabinets

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9 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Tesla announces 500 kW charging as it finally delivers V4 Supercharger cabinets

Tesla has announced that it will finally deliver 500 kW charging as it is about to install its long-awaited V4 Supercharger cabinets.

The rollout of Supercharger V4 has been a strange one, to say the least.

Tesla has been deploying the new charging stations for two years and calling them “Supercharger V4”, but it has only been deploying the charging stalls.

Supercharger stations are made of two main parts: the stalls, which are where the charging cable is located, and the cabinets, which are generally located further back and include all the power electronics.

For all these new “Supercharger V4”, Tesla was actually using Supercharger V3 cabinets. This has been limiting the power output of the charging stations to 250 kW – although

Today, Tesla officially announced its “V4 Cabinet”, which the automaker claims will enable of “delivering up to 500kW for cars and 1.2MW for Semi.”

Here are the main features of the V4 Cabinet as per Tesla:

Faster charging: Supports 400V-1000V vehicle architectures, including 30% faster charging for Cybertruck. S3XY vehicles enjoy 250kW charge rates they already experience on V3 Cabinet — charging up to 200 miles in 15 minutes.
Faster deployments: V4 Cabinet powers 8 posts, 2X the stalls per cabinet. Lower footprint and complexity = more sites coming online faster.
Next-generation hardware: Cutting-edge power electronics designed to be the most reliable on the planet, with 3X power density enabling higher throughput with lower costs.

Tesla reports that its first sites with the new V4 Cabinets are going into permitting now. The company expects its first sites to open next year.

We recently reported about Tesla’s new Oasis Supercharger project, which includes larger solar arrays and battery packs to operate the charging station mostly off-grid.

Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to all Supercharger stations, and Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.

While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.

Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:

It took about 8 years, but it sounds like the pieces are now getting actually in place with Supercharger V4, Megapacks, and this new Oasis project.

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Environment

Hyundai is launching an AI-powered EV next year to keep pace in China

Published

9 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Hyundai is launching an AI-powered EV next year to keep pace in China

Hyundai has a new secret weapon it’s about ready to unleash. To revamp the brand in China and counter BYD’s surge, Hyundai is launching a new AI-powered EV next year. The new model will be Hyundai’s first dedicated electric car for the world’s largest EV market.

With the help of Haomo, a Chinese autonomous startup, Hyundai will launch its first EV equipped with generative AI. It will also be its first model designed specifically for China.

A Hyundai Motor official said (via The Korea Herald) the company is “working to load the software” onto the new EV model, “which will be released in the Chinese market next year.” The spokesperson added, “The level of autonomous driving is somewhere between 2 and 2.5.”

In comparison, Tesla’s Autopilot is considered a level 2 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) on the SAE scale (0 to 5), meaning it offers limited hands-free features.

With Autopilot, you still have to keep your eyes on the road and hands on the steering wheel, or the system will notify you and eventually disengage.

Haomo’s system, DriveGPT, unveiled last spring, takes inspiration from the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT.

The system can continuously update in real-time to optimize decision-making by absorbing traffic data patterns. According to Haomo, DriveGPT is used in around 20 models as it looks to play a bigger role in China.

Hyundai hopes new AI-powered EV boosts sales in China

Electric vehicle sales continue surging in China. According to Rho Motion, China set another EV sales record last month with 1.2 million units sold, up 50% from October 2023.

Over 8.4 million EVs were sold in China in the first ten months of 2024, a notable 38% increase from last year.

BYD continues to dominate its home market. According to Autovista24, BYD accounted for 32.9% of all PHEV and EV (NEV) sales in China through September, with over half of the top 20 best-selling EV models.

Tesla was second with a 6.5% share of the market, but keep in mind these numbers only include plug-in models (PHEV).

2025-Hyundai-IONIQ-5-prices — 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 (Source: Hyundai)

Like most foreign automakers, Hyundai is struggling to keep up with the influx of low-cost electric models in China. Beijing Hyundai’s sales have been slipping since 2017. Through September, Korean automaker’s share of the Chinese market fell to just 1.2%.

Last month, Hyundai opened its first overseas digital R&D center in China to help kick off its return to the region.

According to local reports, Hyundai is partnering with other local tech companies like Thundersoft, a smart cockpit provider, and others in China to power up its next-gen EVs

With its first AI-powered EV launching next year, Hyundai hopes to turn things around in the region quickly. The new model will be one of five to launch in China through 2026.

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