‘Unpredictable’ election in Africa’s largest economy is set to resonate around the world

Published

3 years ago

February 22, 2023

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ABUJA, Niger,a – Feb. 18, 2023: Supporters of Nigeria’s Labour Party parade in the streets during a global march for the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi ahead of the Nigerian presidential election scheduled for February 25, 2023.

KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images

Nigerians head to the polls on Saturday, with an unprecedented youth turnout expected against a backdrop of widespread insecurity and economic hardship.

After 24 years of uninterrupted democracy since ending military dictatorship in 1999, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy is conducting its seventh election.

Nigeria is at a pivotal juncture amid record unemployment and inflation, a massive debt burden, fuel shortages, worsening security conditions, endemic corruption and crumbling public services.

The record 93.5 million Nigerians registered to vote will choose among 18 candidates to replace President Muhammadu Buhari, who has reached the two-term limit.

Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s president, speaks during the U.S.-Africa Business Forum in New York.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The aspiring successor chosen by the ruling All Progressives Congress party, 70-year-old former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu, is a frontrunner alongside former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, and Peter Obi, a relative outsider from the Labor Party.

Obi’s disruptive and decentralized campaign has resonated with young and professional voters disillusioned by the two main parties, and some polls now have him leading the race.

Leena Koni Hoffmann, associate fellow of the Africa Programme at Chatham House, told CNBC on Monday that the presidential election will be the “most unpredictable” since the transition to civilian rule.

“We haven’t had these technologies shaping Nigeria’s elections before, and we’ve never had a three-way race before, and the context is not primed for an easy incumbent win,” Koni Hoffmann explained. The Independent National Electoral Commission is rolling out an unprecedented technological innovations to ensure a free and fair election.

ABUJA, Nigeria – Feb. 20, 2023: Former South African President Thabo Mbeki speaks to media. The Commonwealth of Nations sent 16 observers for the presidential and governorship elections to be held on 25 February and 11 March in Nigeria.

Adam Abu-Bashal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

During a period in which West Africa has been beset by coups and violent extremism, Hoffmann added that the region “needs Nigeria to have a credible election.”

A deluge of international observers arrives this week, including a mission led by former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson and a Commonwealth of Nations delegation headed by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. The U.S. has also announced visa bans on individuals identified as undermining confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.

Demographics

Nigeria has one of the world’s fastest-growing populations — currently near 220 million and forecast to double by 2050. It also has one of the world’s youngest average populations, with 42% of citizens under the age of 15 and a median age of just over 18, the UN estimates.

Political engagement has spiked in recent years, amid deteriorating prospects for Nigeria’s youth — eras of economic growth have not expanded opportunities, social inequality has increased, and youth unemployment hit 42.5%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Almost 40% of registered voters are between 18 and 34, according to INEC.

IBADAN, Nigeria – Feb. 16, 2023: Supporters of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), parade during the party’s presidential campaign in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Adekunle Ajayi/NurPhoto via Getty Images

“Recent years have been particularly brutal for young people in Nigeria, having to live through two recessions and a failing economy and with inflation in double digits and the impact of food inflation,” Koni Hoffmann said.

Four in 10 Nigerians experience monetary deprivation and more than six out of 10 are “multidimensionally poor,” the National Bureau of Statistics finds.

“The kind of social mobility and independence that you would project for yourself in your early twenties, the last couple of years haven’t allowed young people that kind of space for pursuing opportunity, for self-determination, so that explains a lot of the frustration and discontent,” Koni Hoffman said.

Economy

First Lady Aisha Muhammadu Buhari in September apologized to Nigerians for the economic problems and growing insecurity they have experienced since her husband was elected in 2015. Alongside the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine, Koni Hoffmann noted “missed opportunities” and “self-inflicted crises” under Buhari’s regime.

In 2019, the government closed goods movement through Nigeria’s borders with neighboring Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, ostensibly to stem smuggling of rice and other agricultural goods.

Economists panned the decision, which Koni Hoffmann suggested rendered Nigeria and its neighbors more vulnerable to the damage of the pandemic.

The administration has come under fire for its multiple exchange rate system, aimed at defending the domestic naira currency by artificially inflating its value. Critics argue that such interventions heighten volatility by driving greater fluctuations in price discovery.

The oil sector accounts for more than 80% of national budgetary revenues, leaving Abuja highly susceptible to oil price variations and low production due to large scale crude theft.

KANO, Nigeria – Feb. 9, 2023: Supporters carry banner of candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar and running mate Ifeanyi Okowa during a campaign rally in Kano, northwest Nigeria.

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images

Tinubu’s foreign exchange policies are unlikely to deviate from those of the current administration, analysts say, while Abubakar and Obi propose more liberal economic measures and diversification, alongside greater fiscal prudence.

“No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term, but victory for an opposition candidate could make the fiscal outlook considerably brighter further down the line,” said Virág Fórizs, Africa economist at Capital Economics.

“Opposition parties’ fiscal discipline pledges put Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi in a better position to get Nigeria’s fiscal house in order.”

Fórizs concluded, “The upshot is that, from an economic standpoint, the polls offer a choice between marginal steps away from growth-sapping policies and a more meaningful shift towards pro-market reforms that could unlock Nigeria’s economic potential down the line but involve near-term economic pain.”

Security

Buhari took office vowing to tackle Islamist militant organization Boko Haram, whose insurgency killed thousands and displaced millions.

Government forces seemingly succeeded, reclaiming large swathes of territory from the jihadist group. However, the extremist contingent splintered into competing groups in the north, complicating the challenge facing the incoming president.

Meanwhile, cattle bandits terrorize the north-central and northwest states, secessionists in the southeast clash with police and cattle herders battle farmers in “middle belt” states.

The Council on Foreign Relations Security Tracker documented around 7,000 violent deaths in Nigeria in 2022, down from 9,000 in 2021. It also confirmed an increase in state violence against civilians.

ABUJA, Nigeria – Oct. 20, 2021: A young woman stand in front of riot policemen during a protest to commemorate one year anniversary of EndSars, a protest movement against police brutality at the Unity Fountain in Abuja.

KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images

This came to a head in late 2020, when thousands of young people demonstrated countrywide against police brutality. Security forces sought to violently quash the protests, culminating in the Lekki Toll Gate massacre in October 2020.

Peter Obi, the 61-year-old former governor of Anambra State, rode that wave with a vision for policy and governance reforms, including proposals for tackling deep-rooted insecurity and corruption, while promoting social and political mobility.

“The dominant parties did not seem to provide the kinds of channels or vessels that young people wanted, so they have turned to Peter Obi, who is the nearest proximate for them, for how various sections of young people in Nigeria would like to remake the nation’s politics,” said Hoffmann.

Environment

Peak Energy’s $500M deal will deploy the world’s largest sodium-ion battery system

Published

9 hours ago

November 12, 2025

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Peak Energy’s 0M deal will deploy the world’s largest sodium-ion battery system

Burlingame, California-based Peak Energy just scored a huge win for sodium-ion batteries. The company announced a multi-year deal with utility-scale battery storage developer Jupiter Power to supply up to 4.75 GWh of sodium-ion battery systems between 2027 and 2030.

Under the agreement, Peak will deliver 720 MWh of storage in 2027 – the largest single sodium-ion battery deployment announced so far. The deal also includes an option for an additional 4 GWh of capacity through 2030, bringing the total contract value to more than $500 million.

Sodium-ion vs. lithium-ion

Peak Energy says its sodium-ion batteries degrade less over time and have lower operations and maintenance costs than lithium-ion systems. Because the batteries don’t degrade as quickly, operators don’t need to add more capacity later in a project’s life to maintain performance. They also use a fully passive cooling system that eliminates pumps, fans, and other components used in lithium-ion setups, reducing maintenance and safety risks.

The company claims its grid-scale sodium-ion system uses up to 97% less auxiliary power, offers about 30% better cell degradation performance over 20 years, and comes with a lower total cost of ownership.

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Why this deal matters

The agreement marks a significant step forward for the emerging sodium-ion sector, which has been gaining momentum as a safer and lower-cost alternative to lithium-ion for long-duration and grid-scale energy storage. It also underscores the growing effort to build a domestic sodium-ion battery supply chain in the US.

“From day one, we’ve believed sodium-ion will be the winning technology for grid-scale storage, which is essential to meet rising demand from hyperscalers and AI,” said Landon Mossburg, Peak Energy’s CEO and cofounder. “Deploying the world’s largest sodium-ion energy storage system with one of the nation’s top independent power producers proves that sodium is ready for today and will dominate the future.”

Mike Geier, CTO at Jupiter Power, said the company is “excited to support domestic battery energy storage manufacturing as we continue to increase the deployment of firm, dispatchable energy when and where it’s most needed,” and called Peak’s approach to sodium-ion “a potential game changer for the industry.”

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Environment

The new 2026 Lexus ES is an upgrade in just about every way [Video]

Published

9 hours ago

November 12, 2025

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The new 2026 Lexus ES is an upgrade in just about every way [Video]

Lexus claims the new ES “takes sedan styling, luxury, and refinement to a higher level” with a complete redesign. With the 2026 ES arriving soon, Lexus offered a closer look at the upgrades inside and out.

The new 2026 Lexus ES debuts in EV and hybrid forms

The eighth-gen ES is bringing more than a sharp new style. Lexus overhauled its flagship sedan from the ground up for the 2026 model year, which will include battery electric (BEV) and hybrid (HEV) powertrain options.

Inspired by the radical LF-ZC show car, the 2026 ES has been fully redesigned with what Lexus calls the “Experience Elegance and Electrified Sedan” concept, aimed at further refining the driving experience.

The new design centers on a redesigned “spindle body” that extends from the hood to the bumper. It also features a redesigned grille, replacing the signature Lexus spindle grille as the brand looks for a new identity in the electric era.

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Inside, the new 2026 ES features the latest version of the Lexus Interface multimedia system. The setup includes a 14″ touchscreen with wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, and a 12.3″ driver display cluster.

Based on the redesigned TNGA GA-K platform, the new ES will be available in battery electric (BEV) and hybrid (HEV) powertrains for the first time.

The 2026 Lexus ES lineup consists of two models: the ES 350e, a front-wheel-drive (FWD) model, and the ES 500e, an all-wheel-drive (AWD) model.

2026-Lexus-ES-EV-interior — The 2026 Lexus ES 350e interior (Source: Lexus)

Lexus expects the ES 350e to have a driving range of 300 miles when fitted with 19″ wheels, while the ES 500e has an estimated driving range of 250 miles.

Both the ES 350e and 500e feature a built-in NACS port to recharge at Tesla Superchargers. Using DC fast charging, it can recharge from 10% to 80% in about 30 minutes under “ideal conditions,” according to Lexus.

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With its debut just around the corner, Lexus offered a closer look at the new 2026 ES inside and out in a new video.

Lexus has yet to announce prices, but the redesigned ES is expected to start at about $45,000 to $50,000, or slightly more than the outgoing model.

After launching the upgraded RZ earlier this month, Lexus said the ES would be next. It’s expected to go on sale in Spring 2026.

What do you think of the redesigned 2026 ES? Do you like the new Lexus design? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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Environment

Tesla launches new Model Y+ with 510 miles (821 km) of range

Published

11 hours ago

November 12, 2025

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Tesla launches new Model Y+ with 510 miles (821 km) of range

Tesla has launched a new version of the Model Y in China, and it’s achieving an impressive new range rating – thanks to a new battery cell from South Korea’s LG.

The new variant, a five-seat, rear-wheel drive long-range model, has been released with an 821-km range based on China’s CLTC standard.

While the CLTC rating is known to be optimistic, 821 km (about 510 miles) is an impressive number and the longest range Tesla has offered in its Model Y lineup to date, which is going to help it be more competitive in the Chinese market.

This new extended range Model Y version is made possible by using the 78.4-kWh ternary lithium-ion battery pack from LG Energy Solution, the same pack found in the also recently launched 830-km range Model 3 variant.

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The new long-range RWD Model Y starts at RMB 288,500, which translates to just over $40,500 USD.

The launch comes at a critical time for Tesla in China, which has seen its sales slump in recent months. The automaker recorded its lowest monthly sales in October since November 2022, falling out of the top 10 list for new energy vehicle (NEV) sales.

That’s despite a continued surge in electric vehicle sales in China. Tesla is not benefiting from it amid strong competition.

According to local Chinese media reports, the new 821-km Model Y is already gaining traction with some anecdotal reports of enthusiasm at Tesla stores.

The reports are partly supported by Tesla quickly extending delivery timelines from 2-4 weeks to 4-6 weeks just hours after launch.

Electrek’s Take

I think this is going to be suitable for a decent short-term bump in demand, but it’s still on the expensive side for the Chinese market.

For example, now the Model Y beats the Xpeng G6’s max range of 755 km, but the G6 with this range costs 234,900 RMB (approximately $32,900 USD), which is significantly cheaper.

Every 10,000 RMB tranche lower means a lot more demand in China.

Tesla needs to launch its new “standard” versions to start making a difference with demand long term in China.

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