When Sir Keir Starmer became Labour leader in 2020, few ever believed he would become prime minister.
The party was reeling from its worst performance at the ballot box since 1935, riven by internal divisions, under fire over its record of tackling antisemitism and facing a seemingly unassailable Boris Johnson atop an 80-seat majority.
Sir Keir was billed as the Neil Kinnock of 21st-century Labour: the man who would do the hard yards of rehabilitation to get Labour back into the running for whoever came next.
But an extraordinary set of events changed all of that: a global COVID pandemic, the largely self-inflicted collapse of the Johnson administration, and the debacle of Liz Truss’s 44 days in office.
All the political capital won at the ballot box in 2019 has long been spent, and the Sunak government is now in huge deficit.
Labour, ahead in the polls for the past 15 months, is now 28 points ahead, according to latest YouGov polling. Rishi Sunak may have calmed the chaos. But he isn’t closing the gap.
The Tories are in despair. As one former cabinet minister ruefully remarked to me: “Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them, and we are f*****.”
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Sir Keir, who said back in 2020 when he became Labour leader that he had a mountain to climb to turn things around before the next general election in 2024, now has the summit in sight.
Gifted the climbing kit by his political adversaries, he now wants to use the rest of this year to build his own case with voters who might have fallen out of love with the Conservatives but are still unsure about him.
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1:24
‘Tide is turning on SNP and Tories’
‘Five missions’ to answer the big question from voters
Recent polling suggests that when voters are asked what Sir Keir’s Labour stand for, the most common answer is “don’t know”.
But today, Sir Keir is aiming to begin to answer that question during a major speech in Manchester.
He will outline the five “missions” that will form the backbone of his 2024 manifesto. His themes are the economy, climate change, the NHS, skills, and law and order.
The actual policies are being closely guarded – but senior Labour sources are promising that Sir Keir will offer up measurable goals and timelines for achieving those around economic growth and climate change today.
Five point plans and pledge cards are nothing new. At the beginning of the year, Rishi Sunak set out his five promises to voters for the remainder of his term in office – to grow the economy in 2023, halve inflation, cut debt, stop small boats, and cut NHS waiting lists.
In the run up to the 1997 general election, Tony Blair had a pledge card with five very specific policies he would deliver: from cutting cut class sizes to 30 to promising not to raise income tax rates.
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Sir Keir Starmer meets Ukraine’s president
‘More about blue-sky thinking than real-life retail politics’
But this speech is not about that, say senior Labour sources. Sir Keir’s missions will be different to specific pledges. “They are about long-term objectives,” a senior Labour figure said.
“They will be the chapters in the manifesto.
“We’ll then have specific pledges about how we deliver the mission.”
If the mission is, say, a commitment to high economic growth, the pledges that will follow set out how to accomplish that mission.
So today will be more about blue-sky thinking than real-life retail politics. Those around Sir Keir insist that this is not a knee-jerk reaction to Mr Sunak’s own mission statement for the next 18 months – also five points – but rather a framework for governing.
It is, if you like, going back to his theme of ending “sticking plaster politics” and trying to expand on what he means when he talks about a Labour government embarking on a “decade of national renewal”.
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Labour leader says NHS must change
Big thoughts clash with pressing needs
But Labour politicians who are canvassing on doorsteps are hearing about the very real problems of a monthly pay packet that won’t cover the bills, being unable to see a doctor, or being affected by anti-social behaviour. Big thoughts are perhaps not what they want when dealing with pressing needs.
Today is being billed by the Labour leader’s team as a key staging post on Labour’s journey to get voters to really look at the party again. To win the next general election, Labour will need a big chunk of Tory and SNP voters to switch back.
“We can’t afford to let government lose, we need to win,” is how one candidate put it to me – and they are looking to Sir Keir to give them real policies to sell on the doorstep.
That Sir Keir is even in this position should be considered a victory of sorts. Having a serious shot at government was a pipedream rather than a real prospect when he won the Labour leadership race back in 2020, and his mission speech is a key staging post in that journey as the Labour leader sets out his stall.
Sir Keir might be in ascendancy but he knows he still has to seal the deal – and how these missions land could prove crucial.
Pope Francis, 88, had spent five weeks in Rome’s Gemelli hospital as he was treated by doctors for a life-threatening bout of double pneumonia.
The Pope, in what was a previously unannounced move, entered St Peter’s Square in a wheelchair shortly before noon local time at the end of the celebration of a mass for the Catholic Church’s Jubilee year.
Image: The pontiff arrives at the end of a mass. Pic: AP
In front of the main altar for the service, Francis waved to applauding crowds, before briefly talking.
Speaking in a frail voice while receiving oxygen via a small hose under his nose, he said: “Happy Sunday to everyone. Thank you so much.”
A message prepared by the Pope and released by the Vatican said he felt the “caring touch” of God.
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“On the day of the jubilee of the sick and the world of healthcare, I ask the Lord that this touch of his love may reach those who suffer and encourage those who care for them,” said the message.
“And I pray for doctors, nurses and health workers, who are not always helped to work in adequate conditions and are sometimes even victims of aggression.”
The IDF says it mistakenly identified a convoy of aid workers as a threat – following the emergence of a video which proved their ambulances were clearly marked when Israeli troops opened fire on them.
The bodies of 15 aid workers – including eight medics working for the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) – were found in a “mass grave” after the incident, according to the head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Jonathan Whittall.
The Israeli military originally claimed an investigation found the vehicles did not have any headlights or emergency signals and were therefore targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
But video footage obtained by the PRCS, and verified by Sky News, showed the ambulances and a fire vehicle clearly marked with flashing red lights.
In a briefing from the IDF, it said the ambulances arrived in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah shortly after a Hamas police vehicle drove through.
Image: Palestinians mourning the medics after their bodies were recovered. Pic: Reuters
An IDF surveillance aircraft was watching the movement of the ambulances and notified troops on the ground. The IDF said it will not be releasing that footage.
When the ambulances arrived, the soldiers opened fire, thinking the medics were a threat, according to the IDF.
The soldiers were surprised by the convoy stopping on the road and several people getting out quickly and running, the IDF claimed, adding the soldiers were unaware the suspects were in fact unarmed medics.
An Israeli military official would not say how far away troops were when they fired on the vehicles.
The IDF acknowledged that its statement claiming that the ambulances had their lights off was incorrect, and was based on the testimony from the soldiers in the incident.
The newly emerged video footage showed that the ambulances were clearly identifiable and had their lights on, the IDF said.
The IDF added that there will be a re-investigation to look into this discrepancy.
Image: The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen – with three red light vehicles visible in front
Addressing the fact the aid workers’ bodies were buried in a mass grave, the IDF said in its briefing this is an approved and regular practice to prevent wild dogs and other animals from eating the corpses.
The IDF could not explain why the ambulances were also buried.
The IDF said six of the 15 people killed were linked to Hamas, but revealed no detail to support the claim.
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Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
The newly emerged footage of the incident was discovered on a phone belonging to one of the workers who was killed, PRCS president Dr Younis Al Khatib said.
“His phone was found with his body and he recorded the whole event,” he said. “His last words before being shot, ‘Forgive me, mom. I just wanted to help people. I wanted to save lives’.”
Sky News used an aftermath video and satellite imagery to verify the location and timing of the newly emerged footage of the incident.
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2:43
Aid worker attacks increasing
It was filmed on 23 March north of Rafah and shows a convoy of marked ambulances and a fire-fighting vehicle travelling south along a road towards the city centre. All the vehicles visible in the convoy have their flashing lights on.
The footage was filmed early in the morning, with a satellite image seen by Sky News taken at 9.48am local time on the same day showing a group of vehicles bunched together off the road.
Contemplating the turmoil sown by the return of President Trump, nobody could deny that the results of leadership elections in major nations matter to the rest of the world.
Take just the members of the G7 – so-called rich, industrialised democracies. Italy elected Giorgia Meloni in 2022, confirming the rise of the far-right. She was not only Italy’s first female leader, she was also the first from a neo-fascist party since Mussolini.
Barring accidents, the next potentially transformative election in what used to be called the “Western alliance” will not be for two years.
France is due to elect a new president to succeed Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2027. The contest is already plagued by undercurrents of disruption, conflict between politicians and the law, and populism – similar to the fires burning elsewhere in the US and Europe.
This week French judges banned the frontrunner to win the presidency from running for office for the next five years. It looked as though they have knocked Marine Le Pen out of the race.
Nobody, least of all her, the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), knows what is going to happen next in French politics.
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In opinion polls just over half of the French population, between 54% and 57%, agreed that justice had run its course. “The law is the same for everyone,” President Macron declared.
After lengthy consideration by a tribunal of three judges, Le Pen and nine other former RN MEPs were found guilty of illegally siphoning off some €4.4m (£3.7m) of funds from the European Parliament for political operations in France, not for personal gain.
Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban and four years in prison, not to begin before the appeals process had been concluded. Even then that sentence in France would normally amount to two years’ house arrest wearing an ankle alarm.
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2:52
Marine Le Pen hits out at ban
French presidents, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have been convicted before. Controversy is flaring because Le Pen was given an extra punishment: the immediate ban on running for political office, starting this week.
Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, her second in command at RN, likened the ban to a “nuclear bomb” and a “political death penalty”. Speaking in L’Assemblee Nationale, of which she is still a member, Le Pen identified herself with Alexei Navalny, the dissident leader murdered in Russia, and Ekrem Imamoglu, the recently imprisoned Turkish opposition leader and mayor of Istanbul.
The ban was imposed at the discretion of the chief judge Benedicte de Perthuis, a former business consultant, Francois Bayrou, France’s Macronist prime minister admitted he was “troubled” by the verdict. Not surprisingly perhaps from him, since the prosecution is appealing against verdicts in a similar case of political embezzlement, in which Bayrou’s party was found guilty but he was acquitted, escaping any possibility of a ban.
Bayrou is expected to be a candidate for the presidency. Meanwhile, RN has the power to bring down his government since it is the largest party in the Assembly, with 37%, but was kept out of power by a coalition.
Image: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. File pic: AP
Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic rushed to support Marine Le Pen. Matteo Salvini in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Vladimir Putin‘s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov all denounced what they saw as a “violation of democratic norms”. Hungary’s Viktor Orban said on X “Je suis Marine Le Pen”. Orban’s post came on the same platform Donald Trump Jr posted that “JD Vance was right about everything”, a reference to the US vice president’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he claimed Europe was silencing populist opposition.
President Trump weighed in: “The Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech… it is the same ‘playbook’ that was used against me.”
Le Pen has called for bans and tough sentences for corrupt politicians from other parties. In France, mainstream commentators are accusing her of hypocrisy and “Trumpisme” for attacking the courts now.
They also allege, or rather hope, that RN’s anger is endangering Marine Le Pen’s drive to make her party respectable with her so-called “wear a neck-tie strategy”, designed to dispel the loutish, racist image of her father’s Front National.
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0:26
Le Pen leaves court after guilty verdict
For all the protests, justice and politics are now inextricably mixed in France. A ban from political campaigning would be pointless for most convicts, who have no political ambitions.
Any suggestion that Le Pen was just being treated like any other citizen was dispelled when it was announced that her appeal would be speeded up to take place next summer. The president of the court de cassation conceded: “Justice knows how to adjust to circumstances… an election deadline in this case.”
The ban could be lifted in time to give Le Pen a year to stand for the presidency. At this stage, a full acquittal seems unlikely, given the weight of evidence against RN. That is awkward for her and her party because, presumably, she would be campaigning while under house arrest.
The best course of action for 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s apparent successor, or “Dauphin”, would be to stick with her now. He would gain little if he split RN by insisting she is fatally wounded.
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If she loses her appeal in a year’s time, his loyalty and indignation would be likely to boost his candidacy. Conventional wisdom is that without a lift he may be slick, but is too callow and too square to stand a chance of becoming president in 2027.
The far right in France is no different from the far right elsewhere – prone to internal rivalries and in-fighting.
The craggy intellectual Eric Zemmour came fourth in the first round in the last presidential contest in 2022. Back then he had the support of Marion Marechal-Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s flighty niece. The two have since fallen out and may separately bid to carry the far-right torch.
Macron is riding high as an international statesman but he is unpopular at home. Even if he wanted to, he cannot stand again because of term limits.
His attempts to spawn an heir apparent have failed. The 34-year-old prime minister Gabriel Attal led Ensemble to crushing defeat in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Current prime minister Bayrou, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe, will probably make a bid for the centre-right vote. Bruno Retailleau, the trenchantly hardline interior minister, looks a stronger candidate for the Gaullist Les Republicains.
In the last presidential contest, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard-left La France Insoumise came third. He may fancy his chances of getting into the final two in 2027 against a right-wing candidate, unless the Socialists get it together. Or perhaps he may let through two finalists from the right and the extreme right.
It is a mess.
France and Europe need effective leadership from a French president. The unnecessary judicial suspension of Marine Le Pen’s candidacy has simply generated uncertainty. Her supporters are outraged and her foes no longer know who they are fighting against.
The French establishment thinks it will all blow over. Just as likely the controversy in France will strengthen the populist winds blowing across the continent and the US.