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In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders heralded a sanctions regime that would cripple the country’s war machine.

Joe Biden claimed Russia’s economy would be “cut in half”, while Boris Johnson spoke of squeezing it “piece by piece.”

A year has passed, but that great promise has been slow to deliver.

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West ‘punished themselves’ with Russia sanctions

“The Russian economy and system of government have turned out to be much stronger than the West believed,” President Vladimir Putin said in a speech to the country’s parliament on Tuesday.

He was also flexing his muscles at an economic cabinet meeting last month: “Remember, some of our experts here in the country – I’m not even talking about Western experts – thought [gross domestic product] would fall by 10%, 15%, even 20%.”

Instead, Russia shrunk by a relatively modest 2.2% and it is expected to grow by 0.3% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

It means the sanctions-hit country will outperform Britain.

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Among Western leaders, these predictions will make for unpleasant reading.

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A look back on a year of war in Ukraine

Over the past year, sanctions have descended on Russia’s economy but, to the surprise of most economists, it has weathered the storm.

This is largely down to the country’s oil and gas reserves. Although Europe turned its back on Russian energy exports, the country was able to exploit delays in imposing the ban, which helped bolster its public finances.

Revenues held up strongly thanks to a global spike in energy prices and a successful reorientation of trade to China and India.

Russia was already sitting on a comfortable cushion.

Record high trade surpluses following the invasion came after years of conservative fiscal policies which allowed the country to amass a fund that it is now deploying in the war against Ukraine.

The country has been quietly sanctions proofing its economy for years.

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Landmarks light up for Ukraine

Russians are enjoying record low unemployment and wage growth that has helped them to weather the worst of rising inflation.

They’re still cautious about spending during times of economic uncertainty, but the government is trying its best to encourage them by hiking minimum wages and pensions.

While economic data is not wholly reliable, nor does it provide a full view of the strains Russian society is under, the domestic economy has not collapsed in the way some had warned.

President Putin is in a triumphant mood but it may not last for long as cracks are starting to show.

Oil revenues are slipping now that Western countries have introduced a price cap on Russian Urals, its main crude export blend, and the country’s public finances are deteriorating as a result.

At the same time Russia is having to ramp up military spending and is relying on sales of foreign currency – Chinese yuan – to support the rouble. Last year may have exceeded expectations, but the sting of Western sanctions is only just starting to be felt.

Jobs

Living standards in Russia have been supported by record high wage growth and low unemployment.

When the war first broke out, analysts expected the departure of foreign companies to lead to mass job losses.

Instead, unemployment fell to a record low of 3.7% as Western firms handed over their businesses to local partners, which helped to maintain employment.

However, the headline unemployment rate is disguising a massive drop in the size of the workforce.

Hundreds and thousands of skilled workers have left or fled the country, either to fight or find work elsewhere – estimates range from 0.4% to 1.4% of Russia’s workforce. This is weighing on economic growth, with the country’s central bank warning recently: “The capacity to expand production in the Russian economy is largely limited by the labour market conditions.”

As in Britain, where a shrinking labour market is affecting the country’s economic outlook and putting pressure on inflation, Russia’s fortunes will also depend on how well the size of its workforce recovers.

Tatiana Orlova, economist at Oxford Economics, said: “There is anecdotal evidence that some of those who left in panic in March or September have since returned, due perhaps to their being unable to find an equivalent job abroad or because they still had family and property back in Russia.”

Wages

The tight labour market has led to robust wage growth – especially for IT professionals, construction workers and hospitality staff – which is boosting living standards. Wage growth in Russia is almost keeping pace with inflation and the government is hiking pensions and the national minimum wage, which will go up by another 10% next January after rising by 20% last year.

Consumer spending

Oil revenues get a lot of attention but consumer spending is still the dominant part of the country’s economy and the government is hoping that the extra money will encourage Russians to go out and spend, something they have been cautious about indulging in over the past year.

It may have a large task on its hands, however. Many analysts expect Russia to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks in an effort to capture the whole of Donbas. If the country’s leadership announce a new wave of mobilisation then consumer confidence will likely drop again, causing households to prioritise saving over spending.

“The savings-to-disposable income ratio will rise again and stay elevated until the fighting abates, hampering authorities’ efforts to revive household demand,” Ms Orlova said.

Business investment

Another round of mobilisation could also start weighing on business confidence. In the early days of the conflict economists were convinced that business investment would collapse at its fastest pace in decades but that did not happen.

Bumper profits for oil, gas and fertiliser producers helped fund business plans, with fixed investment increasing by 6% in 2021.

As Russia diverted its energy exports to Asia, the country required a massive increase in infrastructure.

This also helped boost the country’s manufacturing sector, although not uniformly. The country’s car industry, for example, collapsed last year as manufacturers struggled to access key component parts and tools from the west. Others are coping by accessing parts from Turkey, which is yet to participate in the international sanctions.

A general view shows oil tanks at the Bashneft-Ufimsky refinery plant (Bashneft - UNPZ) outside Ufa, Bashkortostan, January 29, 2015. Russia's Economy Ministry will base its main macroeconomic development scenario for 2015 on an oil price of $50 per barrel, Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said on Thursday. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin (RUSSIA - Tags: BUSINESS ENERGY INDUSTRIAL POLITICS)

Oil and gas

Attempts to strangle Russia’s economy were immediately stifled by Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas exports, which make up about 40% of the country’s revenues.

Russia successfully exploited this.

In the nine months that it took for the EU to agree and implement a bloc-wide ban on Russian oil exports, Putin’s regime enjoyed record fiscal surpluses as the country benefited from soaring wholesale prices, with its current account surplus jumping by 86% to $227.4bn.

This gave Russia a giant cushion to help fund the war effort and strengthened its currency, helping keep the price of imports low and dampening inflation.

During this time the country was also able to redirect supply to India and China, where its overall crude and fuel oil exports reached a record high of 1.66 million barrels a day last month.

A more challenging 2023

This year will be more challenging.

The country’s public finances are already starting to weaken as lower energy prices weigh on revenues. A $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude oil – imposed by the EU, G7 and Australia in December – means the country is being forced to sell oil at a considerably discounted price compared to the global Brent benchmark.

The cap was recently extended to refined petroleum products as well.

Russia’s budget deficit came in at £20.8bn in January as income from oil and gas fell by 46% over the year. At the same time, government spending increased by 59% over the year.

Economists identified these as early signs of strain, with the country having to sell more Chinese currency and issue local debt to support itself.

However, they were still relatively sanguine about the country’s prospects.

Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, said: “The fiscal deficit expanded in 2022 but remained still moderate at 2% – below the pandemic or the great financial crisis levels.”

She added: “With the public debt below 20% of GDP the financing is hardly an immediate source of the stress, though a sustainable decrease in oil and gas revenues will call for a medium-term fiscal consolidation and non-oil tax increase, we believe.

“This consolidation, however, is yet not that urgent and could be delayed by up to two years, we assume.”

Analysts said the country had scope to increase the tax intake by levelling windfall tax on energy and fertiliser producers.

Crucially, Russia is able to meet its financing needs comfortably at home.

Both the government and corporations have very low levels of external debt and the government has built up a robust sovereign wealth fund.

“We need to remember Russia has spent the best part of 10 years sanctions proofing its economy,” said Liam Peach of Capital Economics.

“What all this meant was being cut out of global capital markets and sanctions on various corporates, banks and the government didn’t really have much of an impact on their financial needs, because they were quite low. So Russia’s government, for example, could go eight months without issuing any debt.”

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Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use – with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

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Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use - with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Consumer rights group Which? is suing Apple for £3bn over the way it deploys the iCloud.

If the lawsuit succeeds, around 40 million Apple customers in the UK could be entitled to a payout.

The lawsuit claims Apple, which controls iOS operating systems, has breached UK competition law by giving its iCloud storage preferential treatment, effectively “trapping” customers with Apple devices into using it.

It also claims the company overcharged those customers by stifling competition.

The rights group alleges Apple encouraged users to sign up to iCloud for storage of photos, videos and other data while simultaneously making it difficult to use alternative providers.

Which? says Apple doesn’t allow customers to store or back-up all of their phone’s data with a third-party provider, arguing this violates competition law.

The consumer rights group says once iOS users have signed up to iCloud, they then have to pay for the service once their photos, notes, messages and other data go over the free 5GB limit.

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“By bringing this claim, Which? is showing big corporations like Apple that they cannot rip off UK consumers without facing repercussions,” said Which?’s chief executive Anabel Hoult.

“Taking this legal action means we can help consumers to get the redress that they are owed, deter similar behaviour in the future and create a better, more competitive market.”

Apple ‘rejects’ claims and will defend itself

Apple “rejects” the idea its customers are tied to using iCloud and told Sky News it would “vigorously” defend itself.

“Apple believes in providing our customers with choices,” a spokesperson said.

“Our users are not required to use iCloud, and many rely on a wide range of third-party alternatives for data storage. In addition, we work hard to make data transfer as easy as possible – whether it’s to iCloud or another service.

“We reject any suggestion that our iCloud practices are anti-competitive and will vigorously defend against any legal claim otherwise.”

It also said nearly half of its customers don’t use iCloud and its pricing is inline with other cloud storage providers.

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How much could UK Apple customers receive if lawsuit succeeds?

The lawsuit will represent all UK Apple customers that have used iCloud services since 1 October 2015 – any that don’t want to be included will need to opt out.

However, if consumers live abroad but are otherwise eligible – for example because they lived in UK and used the iCloud but then moved away – they can also opt in.

The consumer rights group estimates that individual consumers could be owed an average of £70, depending on how long they have been paying for the services during that period.

Apple is facing a similar lawsuit in the US, where the US Department of Justice is accusing the company of locking down its iPhone ecosystem to build a monopoly.

Apple said the lawsuit is “wrong on the facts and the law” and that it will vigorously defend against it.

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Big tech’s battles

This is the latest in a line of challenges big tech companies like Apple, Google and Samsung have faced around anti-competitive practices.

Most notably, a landmark case in the US earlier this year saw a judge rule that Google holds an illegal monopoly over the internet search market.

The company is now facing a second antitrust lawsuit, and may be forced to break up parts of its business.

Read more: Google faces threat of being broken up

FILE PHOTO: The logo for Google LLC is seen at their office in Manhattan, New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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File pic: Reuters

And in December last year, a judge declared Google’s Android app store a monopoly in a case brought by a private gaming company.

“Now that five companies control the whole of the internet economy, there’s a real need for people to fight back and to really put pressure on the government,” William Fitzgerald, from tech campaigning organisation The Worker Agency, told Sky News.

William Fitzgerald at Lisbon's Web Summit, where he spoke to Sky News
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William Fitzgerald at Lisbon’s Web Summit, where he spoke to Sky News

“That’s why we have governments; to hold corporations accountable, to actually enforce laws.”

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Homebase deal leaves 2,000 jobs at risk

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Homebase deal leaves 2,000 jobs at risk

The jobs of more than half of the workforce at the DIY chain Homebase are at risk after the retailer’s owners called in administrators following a failed attempt at a sale.

Sky News reported earlier on Wednesday that around 1,500 people were set to keep their roles as 75 of the 130 stores were set to be snapped up by the saviour of Wilko in a so-called pre-pack deal.

The Range, also a general merchandise specialist, was confirmed as the buyer later in the day.

Teneo, which is handling the process, is understood to have been working to find a buyer for as many of the chain’s sites as possible.

Teneo said in a statement on Wednesday afternoon that up to 70 stores were confirmed to be included in the deal – saving up to 1,600 jobs out of 3,600.

It leaves 2,000 jobs at risk.

Forty-nine other stores will continue to trade while alternative offers are explored.

Sources told Sky’s City editor Mark Kleinman that there had been many expressions of interest in the remaining stores, despite the gloom being felt across the retail sector over the higher tax take demanded in the budget.

The sector has warned of higher inflation and job losses arising from the measures, which include increased employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels.

The pre-pack deal – which typically allows a buyer to cherry-pick the assets it wants – brings to an end a six-year ownership of Homebase by Hilco, the retail restructuring specialist.

Teneo had initially been attempting to find a buyer for the whole Homebase business.

The partial sale comprises all those stores in the Republic of Ireland and the Homebase brand and its e-commerce business.

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Post Office faces backlash over proposed job cuts
P&O’s cost of firing and replacing workers revealed

The Range is part of CDS Superstores, which is controlled by the businessman Chris Dawson – nicknamed “the Del Boy billionaire” because of the distinctive number plate on his Rolls-Royce Wraith.

Last year, it paid £7m to buy the brand and intellectual property assets of Wilko, which had collapsed into administration.

Since then, Mr Dawson has opened a string of new Wilko outlets.

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P&O spent £47m sacking and replacing 786 mainly British seafarers in 2022

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P&O spent £47m sacking and replacing 786 mainly British seafarers in 2022

P&O Ferries spent more than £47m summarily sacking hundreds of seafarers in 2022, helping it cut losses by more than £125m and putting it on a path to profitability, according to accounts due to be published in the coming days.

The dismissal of 786 mainly British seafarers, and their replacement with largely non-European agency staff earning as little as £4.87 an hour, was hugely controversial, drawing criticism from across the political spectrum and threats of a consumer boycott.

The controversy was rekindled last month when Sky News revealed that DP World, P&O‘s Dubai-based parent, considered withdrawing a £1bn investment at its London Gateway port following criticism of P&O by the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.

Read more: Why P&O Ferries’ pariah status may never change

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Chancellor quizzed over P&O ferries

P&O has always maintained the restructuring was necessary to allow it to compete with its rivals on cross-Channel routes, and prevent a total collapse of the company with the loss of more than 2,000 jobs.

In financial statements for P&O Holdings, filed 11 months late and seen by Sky News, the company says the restructuring cost £47.4m including legal fees and consultants, allowing it to cut the overall wage and salary bill by £21.3m.

In a note accompanying the accounts submitted to Companies House, P&O’s directors describe the restructuring as part of a “transformational journey” that will help it return to recording a profit before tax this year.

“The business has been on a transformational journey as it has recovered from the challenges of the global pandemic, Brexit and the impact of disruption caused by the change in the crewing model,” the directors say.

“The group believes that the transformational actions that commenced in 2022 and continue through into 2024 will equip the business to grow profitably when demand rises in the coming years.”

Read more:
Boss admits he couldn’t live on wage his staff are paid
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Brexit and COVID financial distress

The accounts reveal the financial distress in which P&O found itself in 2022.

Having recorded losses of £375m the previous year as it struggled to recover from the pandemic-era decline in passenger numbers and post-Brexit complications, it was in breach of its covenants to external lenders underwriting the construction of new hybrid cross-Channel ferries.

Despite the restructuring costs, revenue increased by £83.3m to £918m in the financial year, but the company still recorded a loss of £249m and was reliant on loans totalling £365m from parent company DP World to remain a going concern.

An additional £70m was made available this year, with 4.5% interest rolled up and not requiring any repayment until 2028 at the earliest.

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The financial statements also reveal that P&O was forced to sell one of the new cross-Channel ferries to a French subsidiary to pay off an external financing loan of £76.9m, and then lease the vessel back from its ultimate owner.

In a statement, P&O Ferries said: “Our 2022 financial accounts show the challenges faced by the business at that time, and why the business needed to transform into a competitive operator with a sustainable long-term future.

“P&O Ferries has taken steps to adjust to new market conditions, matching our capacity to demand, and adopting a more flexible operating model that enables us to better serve our customers.”

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