Ukraine hopes to defeat Russia’s invasion this year but, unless the West provides sufficient weapons to achieve a decisive victory or Vladimir Putin gives up, this war is set to grind on.
One year into a full-scale invasion intent on toppling the government and imposing a pro-Russia regime, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was standing firm on Friday.
But this was a day for commemoration, not celebration as the nation observed a one minute’s silence to remember the tens of thousands of Ukrainian service personnel who gave their lives to protect Ukraine’s freedom.
They also know that there are many more days, months – even years – of tough fighting ahead.
The Ukrainian leader awarded medals to soldiers – including those who died – at a ceremony in Kyiv.
“We withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts and cold,” he told lines of troops as well as families.
“And we will do everything to gain victory this year.”
His country withstood the shock on 24 February 2022 of the biggest invasion in Europe since the Second World War.
But his people are exhausted and there is no end in sight to the threat, with battles raging in the east.
Ukraine’s military is unwavering in their determination to fight.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing no sign of giving up despite repeated defeats and setbacks.
His forces still hold about one fifth of Ukrainian territory, with up to 300,000 troops on the ground – double the initial invading force – according to Western officials.
It means the fighting this year is only set to worsen.
Neither side appears to have the capability to achieve a decisive victory. But no one is in the mood for compromise.
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Ukraine marks one year of war
Asked by Sky News whether Ukraine could win on the battlefield or whether he might have to consider a negotiation – possibly even with Mr Putin – Mr Zelenskyy said: “Despite everybody seeing how they kill, torture and everything else, they’re not even trying to hide their attacks…They [Russians] don’t care.
“And seeing the world this way, do you think we Ukrainians can sit and negotiate with all of this?”
He continued: “Firstly – please respect our right to live on our land. Leave our territory.
“Stop shelling us, stop killing civilians, stop destroying our infrastructure, energy sector, drinking water, stop airstrikes on the cities, villages, stop killing dogs, cats, just animals, stop burning the forests.
“So you go ahead and stop doing all of that, and only after that, we’ll tell you what format will be used to diplomatically put an end to this.”
But the Kremlin believes the numbers – time and sheer mass of manpower – are on its side.
The Russian president has likely calculated that his Western foes lack the strategic patience to commit to a war that will outlast most election cycles.
He is pitching himself against European nations, in particular those that chose to take a peace dividend after the end of the Cold War and disinvest significantly in their armed forces.
However, Moscow’s decision to launch its illegal invasion has galvanised Western allies in a way not seen since the Cold War.
Countries like Germany and France that for years have failed to meet a minimum requirement of the NATO military alliance to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence are suddenly digging into their coffers and pledging to rebuild their militaries, while also supplying an increasingly lethal array of arms to Ukraine.
There is a belated realisation that a world order that grew from the ashes of the Second World War, which benefitted democracies to the detriment of authoritarian regimes, is suddenly at peril.
The big question, though, is whether this will be enough to enable Ukraine to claw back all of its land or whether some kind of messy accommodation may ultimately have to be reached.
An Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed, killing 38 people, was damaged while flying over Russia “due to shooting from the ground”, the country’s president has said.
President Ilham Aliyev said he believed that the plane, which crashed around two miles from Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, was not shot down intentionally.
However, he accused some circles in Russia of wanting to cover up the truth about the nature of the crash.
The Embraer 190 passenger jet was en route from Azerbaijan‘s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus when it changed course.
It crashed in Kazakhstan while making an attempt to land after flying east across the Caspian Sea, killing 38 people and injuring all of the other 29 survivors.
In an interview with Azerbaijani television, Mr Aliyev said the plane was damaged “from the outside” over Russian territory and that “electronic warfare systems” put the plane “out of control”.
“At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged,” he said.
“The fact that the fuselage is riddled with holes indicates that the theory of the plane hitting a flock of birds, which was brought up by someone, is completely removed from the agenda.”
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Video shows holes in crashed plane’s tail
He added: “Unfortunately, however, some circles in Russia preferred to put forward this theory. Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of some gas cylinder on board the plane.
“In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone.”
He said the plane was hit “by accident” and ruled out a “deliberate act of terror”.
However, he criticised Russian authorities for not taking responsibility for the crash.
“Admitting the guilt, apologising in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – all these were measures and steps that should have been taken,” he said.
“Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories.”
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Video shows inside plane before crash
On Saturday, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin apologised to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident” – but stopped short of taking responsibility.
The Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday that air defence systems were firing near Grozny because of a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these downed the plane.
According to a Kremlin readout of a call, the Russian president apologised to Mr Aliyev “for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace”.
The White House said early indications suggest the plane could have been brought down by Russia,
Two US military officials told Sky News’ partner network NBC News that America has intelligence indicating Russia may have misidentified the aircraft as a drone and shot it down.
In the days following the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines blamed “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
If proven, the plane crashed after being hit by Russian air defences, it would be the second deadly aviation incident linked to the Kremlin’s conflict with Ukraine.
The UK has rejected Vladimir Putin’s apology over the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash and called for an independent investigation.
The Russian president apologised to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident” – but stopped short of taking responsibility.
The Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet was flying from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechnya region, when it turned and crashed in Kazakhstan while making an attempt to land on Wednesday.
Some 38 people died in the crash, while there were 29 survivors.
The Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday that air defence systems were firing near Grozny because of a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these downed the plane.
According to a Kremlin readout of a call, the Russian president apologised to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev “for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace”.
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Video shows inside plane before crash
The UK’s Foreign Office has called for a “full and independent” investigation into the crash, adding that Mr Putin’s apology “fails to recognise that the reckless and irresponsible actions of the Russian State pose an acute and direct threat to the interests and national security of other states.”
“Our thoughts are with all those affected by this incident, including the family and friends of those who have died,” a spokesperson added in a statement.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia “must provide clear explanations” and “stop spreading disinformation” in a call with Azerbaijan’s president.
“The key priority now is a thorough investigation to provide answers to all questions about what really happened,” he said in an X post.
“Photos and videos clearly show the damage to the aircraft’s fuselage, including punctures and dents, which strongly point to a strike by an air defence missile.”
The White House said early indications suggest the plane could have been brought down by Russia, while an Azerbaijani minister also blamed the crash on an external weapon.
Two US military officials told Sky News’ partner network NBC News that America has intelligence indicating Russia may have misidentified the aircraft as a drone and shot it down.
Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on the aircraft as it was circling over Grozny.
In the days following the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines blamed “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
The announcement comes after the Israeli military raided one of the last functioning hospitals in northern Gaza, arresting its director.
Israel has been at war with Hamas for more than 14 months since the 7 October attacks in which around 1,200 people were killed and 250 others abducted.
More than 45,400 Palestinians, over half of them women and children, have been killed and more than 108,000 others wounded, according to the Hamas-run Palestinian health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.