In the year since Russia launched a full-scale attack on its neighbour, Ukrainian troops have retaken huge swathes of territory and look to be preparing for a fresh counterattack.
Armed with NATO battle tanks (and perhaps eventually F-16 fighter jets), will Ukraine’s armed forces be able to once again punch through Russian lines in the east or liberate all of occupied Zaporizhzhia? What about taking back Crimea?
Sky News spoke to military experts about the year ahead – and there was some disagreement about who would be in control of several Ukrainian cities by the end of February.
Will Ukraine start the year with a loss?
Russian forces continue to send unrelenting attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut on the eastern frontline.
It appears that the tide there may be beginning to turn against Ukraine, but doubt has been cast on whether Bakhmut has much tactical or strategic importance.
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Whatever happens, Ukraine’s defence of the city has inflicted horrific numbers of casualties on Russia
Now as the muddy ground hardens, attention is turning to possible spring offensives – when tanks and vehicles will be able to move off-road once more.
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2:23
Injured soldiers return to frontline
Could Putin claim success and call for a ceasefire?
Military analyst Sean Bell says Vladimir Putin could keep his focus on the Donbas region – most of which it occupies – and call for a ceasefire.
“If Putin could take the whole of the Donbas there is the potential for him to declare success in this war and say “I’m going to sue for peace now” which buys him time, adds Mr Bell.
“Would Zelenskyy want that? Absolutely not.”
But the West could apply pressure to President Zelenskyy to call an end to a war and tell him “you can’t win this”.
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‘We are working very hard with Britain’
At the same time, explains Mr Bell, the West would promise the Ukrainian leader that they would help rebuild his country and provide security guarantees.
He adds: “Russia has tried to stop the expansion of NATO. It has failed.
“Russia wants to be great again. It has failed.
“Russia wants its economy to grow. It has been damaged.
“So Russia has lost this even if it ends up taking some gains.”
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0:35
‘UK will support others to send jets’
Ukraine to push Russians out of almost all territory?
So does that mean Ukraine does not have a chance of liberating the Donbas? Military analyst Phil Ingram believes that Kyiv’s forces could accomplish that feat, however daunting it may look.
He tells Sky News that the “best” Ukraine can hope for is pushing Russian forces out of all of the mainland, including parts of the east that have been occupied since 2014.
“They could do that in two or three big operations,” he says.
But he adds: “I don’t think they will have the wherewithal to be able to attack and recapture Crimea at this stage.
“I think that is a 2024 initiative, but is firmly on the cards for them to do.”
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1:16
Putin: ‘There is a fight on our historic borders’
Will there be an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin to end the war?
There’s often talk that in order for Vladimir Putin to agree to stop his war in Ukraine, he needs to be given an option that will allow him to save face. An “off-ramp” from the road to more destruction, some have called it.
But is this at all likely?
“One of the key problems with the search for ‘off-ramps’ is the way that both sides’ red lines clash with one another,” says Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University.
Giving the examples of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bogus referenda in the Donbas last year, she said Russia tries to create legal cover for its actions.
She told Sky News: “When you look at how these episodes transpired, Putin’s actions give no indication that he’s interested in an off-ramp. He seems constantly to be doubling down.
“But I think it’s important not to interpret this as a need to make concessions – after all, this invasion went ahead precisely because the more conciliatory approach to previous Russian provocations essentially showed that strategic gains can be made at little lasting cost. That not – and shouldn’t be – the case here.”
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Putin says Russia is to strengthen its nuclear potential.
Is China going to send arms to Moscow?
The last few weeks have not been the best for China-US relations, to put it mildly.
There was the spy balloon(s)which resulted in American fighter jets shooting down at least one suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace. And then there were warnings about Ukraine.
“There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Antony Blinken told NBC last week, adding that Washington would soon release more details.
Western intelligence indicates that the kind of supplies China is considering giving Russia would be aimed at backfilling stocks of weapons that Russia was using up on the battlefield in Ukraine, a European official told the Associated Press.
Speaking at a security conference in Munich, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and suggested European countries “think calmly” about how to end the war.
He added that there were “some forces that seemingly don’t want negotiations to succeed, or for the war to end soon”, without specifying who those forces were.
The Kremlin has turned to countries like Iran and North Korea for help so far, but if China were to step up its support to include weapons for use in Ukraine it could change the course of the war – and likely provoke a response from NATO.
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Former US National Security Adviser John Bolton on China and Russia relations
Unity of the West will affect battles to come
Professor Michael Clarke says the resolve of Western nations who have been supporting Ukraine will be important in the year ahead.
Countries are being tested by shortages and high energy prices, he says.
He tells Sky News: “If the West can remain cohesive, if it can remain united in its opposition and its determination to make sure that the Ukrainians prevail in this conflict, then things will get a lot better.
“Because the balance of advantages turns against the Russians from the spring… if the Ukrainians can hold the big (Russian) offensive.”
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6:01
Ukraine war a ‘battle of logistics’
As we saw with the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, one push at the right time can see thousands of square miles of territory liberated – or captured.
With Ukraine soon to be armed with NATO tanks, authorities in Kyiv will be hoping their armed forces can build on their victories over the last year and recapture still more of their country.
An Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed, killing 38 people, was damaged while flying over Russia “due to shooting from the ground”, the country’s president has said.
President Ilham Aliyev said he believed that the plane, which crashed around two miles from Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, was not shot down intentionally.
However, he accused some circles in Russia of wanting to cover up the truth about the nature of the crash.
The Embraer 190 passenger jet was en route from Azerbaijan‘s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus when it changed course.
It crashed in Kazakhstan while making an attempt to land after flying east across the Caspian Sea, killing 38 people and injuring all of the other 29 survivors.
In an interview with Azerbaijani television, Mr Aliyev said the plane was damaged “from the outside” over Russian territory and that “electronic warfare systems” put the plane “out of control”.
“At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged,” he said.
“The fact that the fuselage is riddled with holes indicates that the theory of the plane hitting a flock of birds, which was brought up by someone, is completely removed from the agenda.”
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1:18
Video shows holes in crashed plane’s tail
He added: “Unfortunately, however, some circles in Russia preferred to put forward this theory. Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of some gas cylinder on board the plane.
“In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone.”
He said the plane was hit “by accident” and ruled out a “deliberate act of terror”.
However, he criticised Russian authorities for not taking responsibility for the crash.
“Admitting the guilt, apologising in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – all these were measures and steps that should have been taken,” he said.
“Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories.”
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1:01
Video shows inside plane before crash
On Saturday, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin apologised to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident” – but stopped short of taking responsibility.
The Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday that air defence systems were firing near Grozny because of a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these downed the plane.
According to a Kremlin readout of a call, the Russian president apologised to Mr Aliyev “for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace”.
The White House said early indications suggest the plane could have been brought down by Russia,
Two US military officials told Sky News’ partner network NBC News that America has intelligence indicating Russia may have misidentified the aircraft as a drone and shot it down.
In the days following the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines blamed “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
If proven, the plane crashed after being hit by Russian air defences, it would be the second deadly aviation incident linked to the Kremlin’s conflict with Ukraine.
The UK has rejected Vladimir Putin’s apology over the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash and called for an independent investigation.
The Russian president apologised to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident” – but stopped short of taking responsibility.
The Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet was flying from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechnya region, when it turned and crashed in Kazakhstan while making an attempt to land on Wednesday.
Some 38 people died in the crash, while there were 29 survivors.
The Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday that air defence systems were firing near Grozny because of a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these downed the plane.
According to a Kremlin readout of a call, the Russian president apologised to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev “for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace”.
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1:01
Video shows inside plane before crash
The UK’s Foreign Office has called for a “full and independent” investigation into the crash, adding that Mr Putin’s apology “fails to recognise that the reckless and irresponsible actions of the Russian State pose an acute and direct threat to the interests and national security of other states.”
“Our thoughts are with all those affected by this incident, including the family and friends of those who have died,” a spokesperson added in a statement.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia “must provide clear explanations” and “stop spreading disinformation” in a call with Azerbaijan’s president.
“The key priority now is a thorough investigation to provide answers to all questions about what really happened,” he said in an X post.
“Photos and videos clearly show the damage to the aircraft’s fuselage, including punctures and dents, which strongly point to a strike by an air defence missile.”
The White House said early indications suggest the plane could have been brought down by Russia, while an Azerbaijani minister also blamed the crash on an external weapon.
Two US military officials told Sky News’ partner network NBC News that America has intelligence indicating Russia may have misidentified the aircraft as a drone and shot it down.
Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on the aircraft as it was circling over Grozny.
In the days following the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines blamed “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
The announcement comes after the Israeli military raided one of the last functioning hospitals in northern Gaza, arresting its director.
Israel has been at war with Hamas for more than 14 months since the 7 October attacks in which around 1,200 people were killed and 250 others abducted.
More than 45,400 Palestinians, over half of them women and children, have been killed and more than 108,000 others wounded, according to the Hamas-run Palestinian health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.