Ukraine war: What lies ahead in year two? Here is what the experts think

Published

2 years ago

February 25, 2023

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In the year since Russia launched a full-scale attack on its neighbour, Ukrainian troops have retaken huge swathes of territory and look to be preparing for a fresh counterattack.

Armed with NATO battle tanks (and perhaps eventually F-16 fighter jets), will Ukraine’s armed forces be able to once again punch through Russian lines in the east or liberate all of occupied Zaporizhzhia? What about taking back Crimea?

Sky News spoke to military experts about the year ahead – and there was some disagreement about who would be in control of several Ukrainian cities by the end of February.

Will Ukraine start the year with a loss?

Russian forces continue to send unrelenting attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut on the eastern frontline.

The city was razed to the ground during eight months of brutal fighting, drawing comparisons with the desolation of the First World War.

It appears that the tide there may be beginning to turn against Ukraine, but doubt has been cast on whether Bakhmut has much tactical or strategic importance.

Whatever happens, Ukraine’s defence of the city has inflicted horrific numbers of casualties on Russia

Now as the muddy ground hardens, attention is turning to possible spring offensives – when tanks and vehicles will be able to move off-road once more.

Could Putin claim success and call for a ceasefire?

Military analyst Sean Bell says Vladimir Putin could keep his focus on the Donbas region – most of which it occupies – and call for a ceasefire.

“If Putin could take the whole of the Donbas there is the potential for him to declare success in this war and say “I’m going to sue for peace now” which buys him time, adds Mr Bell.

“Would Zelenskyy want that? Absolutely not.”

But the West could apply pressure to President Zelenskyy to call an end to a war and tell him “you can’t win this”.

At the same time, explains Mr Bell, the West would promise the Ukrainian leader that they would help rebuild his country and provide security guarantees.

He adds: “Russia has tried to stop the expansion of NATO. It has failed.

“Russia wants to be great again. It has failed.

“Russia wants its economy to grow. It has been damaged.

“So Russia has lost this even if it ends up taking some gains.”

Ukraine to push Russians out of almost all territory?

So does that mean Ukraine does not have a chance of liberating the Donbas? Military analyst Phil Ingram believes that Kyiv’s forces could accomplish that feat, however daunting it may look.

He tells Sky News that the “best” Ukraine can hope for is pushing Russian forces out of all of the mainland, including parts of the east that have been occupied since 2014.

“They could do that in two or three big operations,” he says.

But he adds: “I don’t think they will have the wherewithal to be able to attack and recapture Crimea at this stage.

“I think that is a 2024 initiative, but is firmly on the cards for them to do.”

Will there be an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin to end the war?

There’s often talk that in order for Vladimir Putin to agree to stop his war in Ukraine, he needs to be given an option that will allow him to save face. An “off-ramp” from the road to more destruction, some have called it.

But is this at all likely?

“One of the key problems with the search for ‘off-ramps’ is the way that both sides’ red lines clash with one another,” says Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University.

Giving the examples of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bogus referenda in the Donbas last year, she said Russia tries to create legal cover for its actions.

She told Sky News: “When you look at how these episodes transpired, Putin’s actions give no indication that he’s interested in an off-ramp. He seems constantly to be doubling down.

“But I think it’s important not to interpret this as a need to make concessions – after all, this invasion went ahead precisely because the more conciliatory approach to previous Russian provocations essentially showed that strategic gains can be made at little lasting cost. That not – and shouldn’t be – the case here.”

Is China going to send arms to Moscow?

The last few weeks have not been the best for China-US relations, to put it mildly.

There was the spy balloon(s) which resulted in American fighter jets shooting down at least one suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace. And then there were warnings about Ukraine.

In a dramatic move, the US Secretary of State told China there will be “consequences” if Beijing provides material support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

“There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Antony Blinken told NBC last week, adding that Washington would soon release more details.

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Western intelligence indicates that the kind of supplies China is considering giving Russia would be aimed at backfilling stocks of weapons that Russia was using up on the battlefield in Ukraine, a European official told the Associated Press.

Speaking at a security conference in Munich, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and suggested European countries “think calmly” about how to end the war.

He added that there were “some forces that seemingly don’t want negotiations to succeed, or for the war to end soon”, without specifying who those forces were.

Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the war have hampered its economy and its ability to replace the resources it is losing in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has turned to countries like Iran and North Korea for help so far, but if China were to step up its support to include weapons for use in Ukraine it could change the course of the war – and likely provoke a response from NATO.

Unity of the West will affect battles to come

Professor Michael Clarke says the resolve of Western nations who have been supporting Ukraine will be important in the year ahead.

Countries are being tested by shortages and high energy prices, he says.

He tells Sky News: “If the West can remain cohesive, if it can remain united in its opposition and its determination to make sure that the Ukrainians prevail in this conflict, then things will get a lot better.

“Because the balance of advantages turns against the Russians from the spring… if the Ukrainians can hold the big (Russian) offensive.”

As we saw with the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, one push at the right time can see thousands of square miles of territory liberated – or captured.

With Ukraine soon to be armed with NATO tanks, authorities in Kyiv will be hoping their armed forces can build on their victories over the last year and recapture still more of their country.

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Israel pounds outskirts of Gaza City overnight as military offensive plans continue

Published

19 hours ago

August 24, 2025

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Israel pounds outskirts of Gaza City overnight as military offensive plans continue

Israel pounded the outskirts of Gaza City overnight, as Benjamin Netanyahu’s government vowed to press on with a planned offensive on the city.

Families streamed out of the city as the explosions hit.

“I stopped counting the times I had to take my wife and three daughters and leave my home in Gaza City,” said Mohammad, 40.

“No place is safe, but I can’t take the risk. If they suddenly begin the invasion, they will use heavy fire.”

Others said they would prefer to die and not leave.

“We are not leaving, let them bomb us at home,” said Aya, 31, who has a family of eight, adding that they couldn’t afford to buy a tent or pay for the transportation.

“We are hungry, afraid and don’t have money,” she said.

Witnesses said that overnight they heard nonstop explosions in Zeitoun and Shejaia.

Tanks shelled houses and roads in Sabra, and buildings were blown up in Jabalia.

On Sunday, the IDF said its forces had returned to combat in Jabalia to strengthen its control of the area and dismantle militant tunnels.

It added that the operation there “enables the expansion of combat into additional areas and prevents Hamas terrorists from returning to operate in these areas.”

This month, Israel approved a plan to seize control of Gaza City. The offensive isn’t expected to start for another few weeks.

In the meantime, mediators in Egypt and Qatar are trying to resume ceasefire talks between the two sides.

On Friday, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said that Gaza City will be razed unless Hamas releases all its remaining hostages and ends the war on Israel’s terms.

Around half of Gaza’s two million residents currently live in the city and on Friday a global hunger monitor said that Gaza City and its surrounding areas are officially suffering from famine that will likely spread.

Israel said the monitor ignores steps Israel has taken since late July to increase aid supplies into and across Gaza.

Eight more people died of malnutrition and starvation in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry on Saturday.

281 people, including 114 children, have now died of malnutrition and starvation since the war started, according to the ministry.

The war began on 7 October 2023, when Hamas-led gunmen killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel, mainly civilians, and took 251 hostages.

Since then, Israel has killed at least 62,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry, and internally displaced nearly its entire population.

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Two married couples found dead in British car after crash in Germany

Published

19 hours ago

August 24, 2025

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Two married couples found dead in British car after crash in Germany

Two married couples have died after a British car veered off the road and crashed in Germany, according to police.

The fatal accident happened shortly after midnight on Saturday in the trees near a highway in the Kassel district, north of Hesse in central Germany.

The 32-year-old male driver, a 31-year-old female passenger, a 32-year-old female passenger, and a 30-year-old female passenger all died at the scene, despite the efforts of German emergency services.

Sky News understands UK officials have not been contacted for assistance.

At roughly 12.30am on Saturday, the car appears to have veered off the road and crashed into nearby trees around 30m from the road, according to the Kassel police department.

One of the victim’s phones automatically alerted the emergency services to the incident, who sent an ambulance to the scene.

Soon, fire engines, ambulances, command vehicles and emergency support vehicles were all dispatched.

When emergency workers arrived, the car was lying on its side, wedged between several trees.

It wasn’t until they removed the roof that they found all four passengers.

The emergency workers who dealt with the victims were immediately supported by the specialist mental health workers at the fire station in Reinhardshagen.

“This high number of deaths is an extraordinary operation for our Reinhardshagen Volunteer Fire Department,” said a fire department spokesperson.

“For some of the emergency personnel, it is the first time they have been confronted with death in this way.

“Therefore, a great deal is being done to help us process these images. We will also discuss this among ourselves and within families, because not everyone can easily shake off what they have seen.”

An investigation into the accident is ongoing and is being conducted by the Hofgeismar police station.

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Legendary boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. to stand trial in Mexico over alleged cartel ties

Published

20 hours ago

August 24, 2025

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Legendary boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. to stand trial in Mexico over alleged cartel ties

Legendary boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. will stand trial over alleged cartel ties and arms trafficking, his lawyer has said.

A Mexican court has granted a three-month extension for further investigation into the case, according to Chávez’s lawyer, Rubén Fernando Benítez Alvarez.

He said the claims against his client were “speculation” and “urban legends” after a court hearing on Saturday in the northern Mexican city of Hermosillo.

If convicted, Chávez – who took part in the hearing virtually from a detention facility – could face a prison sentence of four to eight years, Mr Alvarez said.

Chávez, 39, who has been living in the United States for several years, was arrested in early July by federal agents outside his Los Angeles home for overstaying his visa and providing inaccurate details on an application to obtain a green card.

The arrest came just days after a fight he had with famed American boxer Jake Paul in Los Angeles.

Mexican prosecutors have been investigating the boxer since 2019 after US authorities filed a complaint against the Sinaloa Cartel for organized crime, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and drug trafficking.

The case prompted investigations into 13 individuals, including Ovidio Guzmán López – the son of convicted drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán – as well as several associates, hitmen, and accomplices of the criminal organization. Guzmán López was arrested in January 2023 and extradited to the US eight months later.

Following the inquiry, the Federal Attorney General’s Office issued several arrest warrants, including one against Chávez.

The boxer was deported by the US on 9 August and handed over to agents of the Federal Attorney General’s Office in Sonora state, who transferred him to the Federal Social Reintegration Center in Hermosillo.

The high-profile case comes amid the Trump administration’s efforts to pressure Mexico into cracking down on organized crime, including cancelling visas of prominent Mexican artists and celebrities, and increasing deportations.

Chávez has struggled with drug addiction throughout his career and has been arrested multiple times. In 2012, he was found guilty of driving under the influence in Los Angeles and was sentenced to 13 days in jail.

The boxer was arrested last year for weapons possession. Police said Chávez had two rifles.

He was released shortly afterward upon posting $50,000 bail (£36,000), on the condition that he attend a facility to receive treatment for his addiction.