Ukraine war: What lies ahead in year two? Here is what the experts think

Published

2 years ago

February 25, 2023

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In the year since Russia launched a full-scale attack on its neighbour, Ukrainian troops have retaken huge swathes of territory and look to be preparing for a fresh counterattack.

Armed with NATO battle tanks (and perhaps eventually F-16 fighter jets), will Ukraine’s armed forces be able to once again punch through Russian lines in the east or liberate all of occupied Zaporizhzhia? What about taking back Crimea?

Sky News spoke to military experts about the year ahead – and there was some disagreement about who would be in control of several Ukrainian cities by the end of February.

Will Ukraine start the year with a loss?

Russian forces continue to send unrelenting attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut on the eastern frontline.

The city was razed to the ground during eight months of brutal fighting, drawing comparisons with the desolation of the First World War.

It appears that the tide there may be beginning to turn against Ukraine, but doubt has been cast on whether Bakhmut has much tactical or strategic importance.

Whatever happens, Ukraine’s defence of the city has inflicted horrific numbers of casualties on Russia

Now as the muddy ground hardens, attention is turning to possible spring offensives – when tanks and vehicles will be able to move off-road once more.

Could Putin claim success and call for a ceasefire?

Military analyst Sean Bell says Vladimir Putin could keep his focus on the Donbas region – most of which it occupies – and call for a ceasefire.

“If Putin could take the whole of the Donbas there is the potential for him to declare success in this war and say “I’m going to sue for peace now” which buys him time, adds Mr Bell.

“Would Zelenskyy want that? Absolutely not.”

But the West could apply pressure to President Zelenskyy to call an end to a war and tell him “you can’t win this”.

At the same time, explains Mr Bell, the West would promise the Ukrainian leader that they would help rebuild his country and provide security guarantees.

He adds: “Russia has tried to stop the expansion of NATO. It has failed.

“Russia wants to be great again. It has failed.

“Russia wants its economy to grow. It has been damaged.

“So Russia has lost this even if it ends up taking some gains.”

Ukraine to push Russians out of almost all territory?

So does that mean Ukraine does not have a chance of liberating the Donbas? Military analyst Phil Ingram believes that Kyiv’s forces could accomplish that feat, however daunting it may look.

He tells Sky News that the “best” Ukraine can hope for is pushing Russian forces out of all of the mainland, including parts of the east that have been occupied since 2014.

“They could do that in two or three big operations,” he says.

But he adds: “I don’t think they will have the wherewithal to be able to attack and recapture Crimea at this stage.

“I think that is a 2024 initiative, but is firmly on the cards for them to do.”

Will there be an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin to end the war?

There’s often talk that in order for Vladimir Putin to agree to stop his war in Ukraine, he needs to be given an option that will allow him to save face. An “off-ramp” from the road to more destruction, some have called it.

But is this at all likely?

“One of the key problems with the search for ‘off-ramps’ is the way that both sides’ red lines clash with one another,” says Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University.

Giving the examples of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bogus referenda in the Donbas last year, she said Russia tries to create legal cover for its actions.

She told Sky News: “When you look at how these episodes transpired, Putin’s actions give no indication that he’s interested in an off-ramp. He seems constantly to be doubling down.

“But I think it’s important not to interpret this as a need to make concessions – after all, this invasion went ahead precisely because the more conciliatory approach to previous Russian provocations essentially showed that strategic gains can be made at little lasting cost. That not – and shouldn’t be – the case here.”

Is China going to send arms to Moscow?

The last few weeks have not been the best for China-US relations, to put it mildly.

There was the spy balloon(s) which resulted in American fighter jets shooting down at least one suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace. And then there were warnings about Ukraine.

In a dramatic move, the US Secretary of State told China there will be “consequences” if Beijing provides material support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

“There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Antony Blinken told NBC last week, adding that Washington would soon release more details.

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Western intelligence indicates that the kind of supplies China is considering giving Russia would be aimed at backfilling stocks of weapons that Russia was using up on the battlefield in Ukraine, a European official told the Associated Press.

Speaking at a security conference in Munich, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and suggested European countries “think calmly” about how to end the war.

He added that there were “some forces that seemingly don’t want negotiations to succeed, or for the war to end soon”, without specifying who those forces were.

Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the war have hampered its economy and its ability to replace the resources it is losing in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has turned to countries like Iran and North Korea for help so far, but if China were to step up its support to include weapons for use in Ukraine it could change the course of the war – and likely provoke a response from NATO.

Unity of the West will affect battles to come

Professor Michael Clarke says the resolve of Western nations who have been supporting Ukraine will be important in the year ahead.

Countries are being tested by shortages and high energy prices, he says.

He tells Sky News: “If the West can remain cohesive, if it can remain united in its opposition and its determination to make sure that the Ukrainians prevail in this conflict, then things will get a lot better.

“Because the balance of advantages turns against the Russians from the spring… if the Ukrainians can hold the big (Russian) offensive.”

As we saw with the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, one push at the right time can see thousands of square miles of territory liberated – or captured.

With Ukraine soon to be armed with NATO tanks, authorities in Kyiv will be hoping their armed forces can build on their victories over the last year and recapture still more of their country.

World

‘The capital is under attack’: Russian drones launched over Kyiv after Moscow targeted

Published

18 hours ago

May 25, 2025

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'The capital is under attack': Russian drones launched over Kyiv after Moscow targeted

Russia has launched a “massive” drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital overnight, after Moscow itself was targeted.

Amid flailing peace talks, the Kremlin’s nightly attacks on Ukraine continued.

Ukraine war – follow the latest updates

A large-scale Russian attack through the night into Sunday injured at least 11 in Kyiv and killed three people in towns surrounding the capital.

There were attacks elsewhere as well, including drone strikes in Mykolaiv, where a residential building was hit.

‘Massive’ attack

In Kyiv, the city’s administration warned “the night will be difficult”, as people were urged to remain in shelters.

The city’s mayor Vitaliy Klitschko described it as a “massive” attack.

He said: “Explosions in the city. Air defence forces are working. The capital is under attack by enemy UAVs. Do not neglect your safety! Stay in shelters!”

It came after at least 15 people were injured in attacks the night prior.

Russia claimed it also faced a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday, and that it intercepted and destroyed around 100 of them near Moscow and across Russia’s central and southern regions.

Russia ‘dragging out the war’

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continued a prisoner exchange, marking a rare moment of cooperation in the war.

Amid the most recent attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeated his calls for sanctions on Russia.

Russia “fills each day with horror and murder” and is “simply dragging out the war”, he said.

“All of this demands a response – a strong response from the United States, from Europe, and from everyone in the world who wants this war to end,” Mr Zelenskyy added.

Every day “gives new grounds for sanctions against Russia”, he said, and each day without pressure proves the “war will continue”.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is ready for “any form of diplomacy that delivers real results”.

World

Nine of Gazan doctor’s 10 children killed in Israeli strike on Khan Younis

Published

1 day ago

May 24, 2025

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Nine of Gazan doctor's 10 children killed in Israeli strike on Khan Younis

Nine of a doctor’s 10 children have been killed in an Israeli missile strike on their home in Gaza, which also left her surviving son badly injured and her husband in a critical condition.

Warning: This article contains details of child deaths

Alaa Al Najjar, a paediatrician at Al Tahrir Clinic in the Nasser Medical Complex, was at work during the attack on her home, south of the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, on Friday.

Graphic footage shared by the Hamas-run Palestinian Civil Defence shows the bodies of at least seven small children being pulled from the rubble.

Rescuers can be seen battling fires and searching through a collapsed building, shouting out when they locate a body, before bringing the children out one by one and wrapping their remains in body bags.

In the footage, Dr Al Najjar’s husband, Hamdi Al Najjar, who is also a doctor, is put on to a stretcher and then carried to an ambulance.

The oldest of their children was only 12 years old, according to Dr Muneer Alboursh, the director general of Gaza’s health ministry, which is run by Hamas.

“This is the reality our medical staff in Gaza endure. Words fall short in describing the pain,” he wrote in a social media post.

“In Gaza, it is not only healthcare workers who are targeted – Israel’s aggression goes further, wiping out entire families.”

British doctors describe ‘horrific’ and ‘unimaginable’ attack

Two British doctors working at Nasser Hospital described the attack as “horrific” and “unimaginable” for Dr Al Najjar.

Speaking in a video diary on Friday night, Dr Graeme Groom said his last patient of the day was Dr Al Najjar’s 11-year-old son, who was badly injured and “seemed much younger as we lifted him on to the operating table”.

The strike “may or may not have been aimed at his father”, Dr Groom said, adding that the man had been left “very badly injured”.

Dr Victoria Rose said the family “lived opposite a petrol station, so I don’t know whether the bomb set off some massive fire”.

‘No political or military connections’

Dr Groom added: “It is unimaginable for that poor woman, both of them are doctors here.

“The father was a physician at Nasser Hospital. He had no political and no military connections. He doesn’t seem to be prominent on social media, and yet his poor wife is the only uninjured one, who has the prospect of losing her husband.”

He said it was “a particularly sad day”, while Dr Rose added: “That is life in Gaza. That is the way it goes in Gaza.”

Sky News has approached the Israeli Defence Forces for comment.

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began when the militant group stormed across the border into Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and abducting 251 others.

Israel’s military response has flattened large areas of Gaza and killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count.

World

UN’s Antonio Guterres condemns ‘teaspoon’ of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes

Published

2 days ago

May 24, 2025

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UN's Antonio Guterres condemns 'teaspoon' of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes

The head of the UN has said Israel has only authorised for Gaza what amounts to a “teaspoon” of aid after at least 60 people died in overnight airstrikes.

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday the supplies approved so far “amounts to a teaspoon of aid when a flood of assistance is required,” adding “the needs are massive and the obstacles are staggering”.

He warned that more people will die unless there is “rapid, reliable, safe and sustained aid access”.

Israel says around 300 aid trucks have been allowed through since it lifted an 11-week blockade on Monday, but according to Mr Guterres, only about a third have been transported to warehouses within Gaza due to insecurity.

The IDF said 107 vehicles carrying flour, food, medical equipment and drugs were allowed through on Thursday.

Many of Gaza’s two million residents are at high risk of famine, experts have warned.

Meanwhile, at least 60 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes across Gaza overnight.

Ten people died in the southern city of Khan Younis, and deaths were also reported in the central town of Deir al-Balah and the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north, according to the Nasser, Al-Aqsa and Al-Ahli hospitals where the bodies were brought.

The latest strikes came a day after two Israeli embassy workers were killed in Washington.

The suspect, named as 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, told police he “did it for Gaza”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney of fuelling antisemitism following the shootings.

The leaders of the UK, France and Canada are “on the wrong side of humanity and (…) history”, he said, after they threatened “concrete action” against Israel this week if it continues its “egregious” military operations in Gaza.

Mr Netanyahu also accused Sir Keir, Mr Macron and Mr Carney of siding with “mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.

But UK government minister Luke Pollard told Sky News on Friday morning he “doesn’t recognise” Mr Netanyahu’s accusation.

Earlier this week, Mr Netanyahu said he was recalling negotiators from the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of ceasefire talks failed to bring results. A working team will remain.

The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251 others.

The militants are still holding 58 captives, around a third of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals.

Israel’s offensive, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza, has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.