Ukraine war: What lies ahead in year two? Here is what the experts think

Published

3 years ago

February 25, 2023

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In the year since Russia launched a full-scale attack on its neighbour, Ukrainian troops have retaken huge swathes of territory and look to be preparing for a fresh counterattack.

Armed with NATO battle tanks (and perhaps eventually F-16 fighter jets), will Ukraine’s armed forces be able to once again punch through Russian lines in the east or liberate all of occupied Zaporizhzhia? What about taking back Crimea?

Sky News spoke to military experts about the year ahead – and there was some disagreement about who would be in control of several Ukrainian cities by the end of February.

Will Ukraine start the year with a loss?

Russian forces continue to send unrelenting attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut on the eastern frontline.

The city was razed to the ground during eight months of brutal fighting, drawing comparisons with the desolation of the First World War.

It appears that the tide there may be beginning to turn against Ukraine, but doubt has been cast on whether Bakhmut has much tactical or strategic importance.

Whatever happens, Ukraine’s defence of the city has inflicted horrific numbers of casualties on Russia

Now as the muddy ground hardens, attention is turning to possible spring offensives – when tanks and vehicles will be able to move off-road once more.

Could Putin claim success and call for a ceasefire?

Military analyst Sean Bell says Vladimir Putin could keep his focus on the Donbas region – most of which it occupies – and call for a ceasefire.

“If Putin could take the whole of the Donbas there is the potential for him to declare success in this war and say “I’m going to sue for peace now” which buys him time, adds Mr Bell.

“Would Zelenskyy want that? Absolutely not.”

But the West could apply pressure to President Zelenskyy to call an end to a war and tell him “you can’t win this”.

At the same time, explains Mr Bell, the West would promise the Ukrainian leader that they would help rebuild his country and provide security guarantees.

He adds: “Russia has tried to stop the expansion of NATO. It has failed.

“Russia wants to be great again. It has failed.

“Russia wants its economy to grow. It has been damaged.

“So Russia has lost this even if it ends up taking some gains.”

Ukraine to push Russians out of almost all territory?

So does that mean Ukraine does not have a chance of liberating the Donbas? Military analyst Phil Ingram believes that Kyiv’s forces could accomplish that feat, however daunting it may look.

He tells Sky News that the “best” Ukraine can hope for is pushing Russian forces out of all of the mainland, including parts of the east that have been occupied since 2014.

“They could do that in two or three big operations,” he says.

But he adds: “I don’t think they will have the wherewithal to be able to attack and recapture Crimea at this stage.

“I think that is a 2024 initiative, but is firmly on the cards for them to do.”

Will there be an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin to end the war?

There’s often talk that in order for Vladimir Putin to agree to stop his war in Ukraine, he needs to be given an option that will allow him to save face. An “off-ramp” from the road to more destruction, some have called it.

But is this at all likely?

“One of the key problems with the search for ‘off-ramps’ is the way that both sides’ red lines clash with one another,” says Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University.

Giving the examples of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bogus referenda in the Donbas last year, she said Russia tries to create legal cover for its actions.

She told Sky News: “When you look at how these episodes transpired, Putin’s actions give no indication that he’s interested in an off-ramp. He seems constantly to be doubling down.

“But I think it’s important not to interpret this as a need to make concessions – after all, this invasion went ahead precisely because the more conciliatory approach to previous Russian provocations essentially showed that strategic gains can be made at little lasting cost. That not – and shouldn’t be – the case here.”

Is China going to send arms to Moscow?

The last few weeks have not been the best for China-US relations, to put it mildly.

There was the spy balloon(s) which resulted in American fighter jets shooting down at least one suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace. And then there were warnings about Ukraine.

In a dramatic move, the US Secretary of State told China there will be “consequences” if Beijing provides material support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

“There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Antony Blinken told NBC last week, adding that Washington would soon release more details.

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Western intelligence indicates that the kind of supplies China is considering giving Russia would be aimed at backfilling stocks of weapons that Russia was using up on the battlefield in Ukraine, a European official told the Associated Press.

Speaking at a security conference in Munich, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and suggested European countries “think calmly” about how to end the war.

He added that there were “some forces that seemingly don’t want negotiations to succeed, or for the war to end soon”, without specifying who those forces were.

Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the war have hampered its economy and its ability to replace the resources it is losing in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has turned to countries like Iran and North Korea for help so far, but if China were to step up its support to include weapons for use in Ukraine it could change the course of the war – and likely provoke a response from NATO.

Unity of the West will affect battles to come

Professor Michael Clarke says the resolve of Western nations who have been supporting Ukraine will be important in the year ahead.

Countries are being tested by shortages and high energy prices, he says.

He tells Sky News: “If the West can remain cohesive, if it can remain united in its opposition and its determination to make sure that the Ukrainians prevail in this conflict, then things will get a lot better.

“Because the balance of advantages turns against the Russians from the spring… if the Ukrainians can hold the big (Russian) offensive.”

As we saw with the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, one push at the right time can see thousands of square miles of territory liberated – or captured.

With Ukraine soon to be armed with NATO tanks, authorities in Kyiv will be hoping their armed forces can build on their victories over the last year and recapture still more of their country.

World

Israel says Hamas commander – who was one of the architects of the 7 October 2023 attacks – killed in strike

Published

8 hours ago

December 14, 2025

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Israel says Hamas commander - who was one of the architects of the 7 October 2023 attacks - killed in strike

A senior Hamas commander who was one of the architects of the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel has been killed in a strike on Gaza City, according to the country’s military.

Raed Saad was targeted in response to an attack by Hamas in which an explosive device injured two soldiers on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a joint statement.

It is the highest-profile killing of a senior Hamas figure since the Gaza ceasefire came into effect in October.

Gaza health authorities said the attack on a car in Gaza City killed five people and wounded at least 25 others, but there has been no confirmation from Hamas or medics that Saed was among the dead.

Hamas condemned the attack in a statement as a violation of the ceasefire agreement but stopped short of threatening retaliation.

An Israeli military official described Saed as a high-ranked Hamas member who helped establish and advance the group’s weapons production network.

“In recent months, he operated to re-establish Hamas’ capabilities and weapons manufacturing, a blatant violation of the ceasefire,” the official said.

The 10 October ceasefire has enabled hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to return to Gaza City’s ruins after a war that began after Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and seized 251 hostages in an attack on southern Israel.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 70,700 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to health officials in Gaza.

Israel has pulled troops back from city positions, and aid flows have increased, but violence has not completely stopped.

Palestinian health authorities say Israeli forces have killed at least 386 people in strikes in Gaza since the truce, while Israel says three of its soldiers have been killed.

World

Police responding to ‘developing incident’ at Bondi Beach after reports of multiple shots being fired

Published

9 hours ago

December 14, 2025

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Police responding to 'developing incident' at Bondi Beach after reports of multiple shots being fired

Police are responding to a “developing incident” at Sydney’s Bondi Beach after reports of multiple shots being fired.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported the shooting but said it was unclear if anyone had been hit.

New South Wales police said two people are in custody at Bondi Beach but added the operation is ongoing.

“We continue to urge people to avoid the area. Please obey ALL police directions. Do not cross police lines,” the force said on social media.

“We are aware of an active security situation in Bondi. We urge people in the vicinity to follow information from NSW Police,” a spokesperson for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

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Belarus pardons key opposition figure, among 123 prisoners, in exchange for US sanction relief

Published

23 hours ago

December 13, 2025

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Belarus pardons key opposition figure, among 123 prisoners, in exchange for US sanction relief

Belarus has pardoned 123 prisoners, including a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and a key opposition figure who challenged the presidential elections in 2020, in exchange for US sanctions relief.

Human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski and Maria Kolesnikova, a key figure in the mass protests that rocked the country in 2020, were among those released.

Earlier on Saturday, the Trump administration confirmed that the US was lifting sanctions on Belarus’s potash sector after officials held two days of talks in Minsk.

John Coale, the US special envoy for Belarus, also hinted that around 1,000 remaining political prisoners in Belarus could be released in the coming months as authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia, seeks to improve relations with Washington.

Separately, Ukraine confirmed it had received 114 prisoners released by Belarus. The other nine were received by Lithuania.

Maria Kolesnikova, 43, known for her close-cropped hair and trademark gesture of forming a heart with her hands, was one of dozens of released prisoners who arrived in Ukraine by coach on Saturday.

“Of course, this feeling is incredible happiness,” she said in a video released on X from the Military Intelligence of Ukraine.

“At the same time, of course, I think about those people who are not yet free. I am very much looking forward to the moment when we can all hug each other, when we can all see one another, when we will all be free,” she added.

Ms Kolesnikova became a symbol of resistance when Belarusian authorities tried to deport her to Ukraine in September 2020. She broke away from security forces at the border, tore up her passport and walked back into Belarus.

The professional flautist was convicted in 2021 on charges including conspiracy to seize power and sentenced to 11 years in prison, but then fell seriously ill and underwent surgery.

Ales Bialiatski, 63, who founded Viasna, Belarus’ oldest and most prominent human rights group, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022 while awaiting trial for charges which were widely regarded as politically motivated.

After arriving in Lithuania, he spoke briefly to crowds outside the US embassy in Vilnius and said in English: “Never give up”.

He was seen by authorities as especially dangerous because of what Belarus alleged were his “extremist tendencies”.

Sentenced to 10 years in 2023, he had been held at a penal colony in Gorki, notorious for beatings and hard labour, and his health was deteriorating, according to his wife.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee expressed “profound relief and heartfelt joy” at the release of Mr Bialiatski and called on the Belarusian authorities “to release all political prisoners”.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who is an opposition leader in exile and a close ally of Ms Kolesnikova, posted her delight on X: “Maria is free!”

She added: “For five years, we fought for Maria Kolesnikova’s freedom. I am deeply grateful to the US administration and our European partners who worked tirelessly to secure her release.

“Maria is in a safe place, and we hope to hear from her soon.”

Ukrainian officials said President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had also spoken to Ms Kolesnikova after her release, although they have not released any more details.

In a statement, published on the Telegram social media platform, the Military Intelligence of Ukraine confirmed more details of who had been released, including people “imprisoned for political reasons”.

Among the group were Viktar Babaryka, a former banker, jailed in 2021 after challenging Mr Lukashenko at the polls, and journalist Maryna Zolatava, who was imprisoned in 2023 on a range of charges including harming national security. Critics argue both sentences were politically motivated.

President Lukashenko has ruled the nation with an iron fist for more than three decades, but has been repeatedly sanctioned by Western countries both for its crackdown on human rights and for allowing Moscow to use its territory in the invasion of Ukraine.

Following the two-day talks, US envoy John Coale posted on X: “Another 156 political prisoners released thanks to President Trump’s leadership! An important step in U.S.-Belarus relations.”

It is not clear whether the figure includes previously released prisoners.

Speaking to the Reuters news agency on Saturday, Mr Coale said around 1,000 remaining political prisoners in Belarus could be released in the coming months.

“I think it’s more than possible that we can do that, I think it’s probable… We are on the right track, the momentum
is there.”

US officials eased some sanctions after meeting with President Lukashenko in September 2025. In response, Minsk freed more than 50 political prisoners into Lithuania, taking the total number freed by Belarus since July 2024 to more than 430.

Mr Coale also spoke about weather balloons which have flying over the border from Belarus into Lithuania.

“He [Mr Lukashenko] agreed recently to do everything he could to stop the balloons,” Mr Coale told the Reuters news agency.

Lithuania has declared a state of emergency over the balloons, used by cigarette smugglers, which have caused over a dozen closures of Vilnius airport in recent months.