Ukraine war: What would Russian success mean for Western security?

Published

2 years ago

February 25, 2023

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President Vladimir Putin might have hoped for a swift and decisive invasion of Ukraine; instead, a year on, Russia has paid a huge price for his imperial ambition.

However, time is a powerful ally for Mr Putin, and victory could still be secured.

What would some form of Russian success mean for Western security?

Putin’s frustration at Russian military incompetence will be tempered by knowing this is a David vs Goliath battle, in which Russia should prevail.

Notwithstanding Western support – upon which Ukraine is utterly dependent – Putin will know that precision weapons have a finite supply, are not easily replaced, and that Western cohesion is fragile.

Further, NATO has no mandate, and Western nations have no appetite, to commit combatants to this conflict.

Time is Putin’s friend, and the longer the war continues, Russia regenerates as the West wearies.

Ukraine will struggle to expel all Russian forces, so some form of victory for Russia – however unthinkable by the West – seems inevitable.

Emboldened and inspired, Putin’s Russia would present an existential threat to its westerly neighbours.

Russia’s grip around Belarus would tighten, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would be vulnerable – could or would NATO resist, given the risk of escalation?

Further, a new “axis of evil” – China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – would gain traction as an ideological counter to NATO.

Defence spending is an insurance premium against an uncertain future – Putin’s invasion demonstrates the West can no longer afford to be complacent about defence, and the Cold War Peace Dividend has left significant gaps in our collective military capability.

Western technology has proven decisive, but precision weapons are difficult to produce, expensive to procure and with long lead times to replace.

Larger stockpiles, a greater commonality between allies, and a defence industrial strategy able to respond swiftly to changing demand, are all viable options, but at what cost?

And what is the West’s off-ramp from Ukraine, or is the West now committed to a conflict it cannot afford to lose?

NATO/Western Air Power would be decisive in this conflict, so is it inevitable that in time the West will be obliged to commit fighter pilot combatants to bring the war to an end, despite the risks?

One year on, the Ukraine conflict has evolved from a strategic Russian failure into a robust and brutal challenge to the established world order.

Ukraine has survived so far – perhaps even turned the tide – but that will be of little consequence should the international community not see the conflict through – whatever it takes.

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’

Published

2 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: 'The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem'

In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.

We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.

The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.

They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.

War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’

Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.

Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.

He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.

His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.

‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’

Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.

We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.

“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.

He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.

Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.

Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.

“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.

‘The world is scared of Russia’

It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.

Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.

A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.

He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.

“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”

Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.

Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.

If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.

Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.

“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”

Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.

He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.

“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.

‘Losing will be not only our problem’

These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.

Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.

Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.

“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.

But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.

“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”

Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.

World

Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued – as country counts flooding cost

Published

3 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued - as country counts flooding cost

A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.

The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.

Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.

The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.

Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.

All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.

Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.

Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.

He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.

“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.

Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.

The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.

World

Diamond necklace linked to Marie Antoinette’s downfall sells for £3.7m

Published

3 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Diamond necklace linked to Marie Antoinette's downfall sells for £3.7m

A necklace believed to contain jewels from the infamous Marie Antoinette “Affair of the Diamond Necklace” has been sold for £3.7m.

Set with nearly 500 diamonds and weighing about 300 carats, it smashed price expectations at a Sotheby’s auction in Geneva.

The Marchioness of Anglesey wore it at Queen Elizabeth II’s coronation in 1953, and it was also worn 16 years earlier at King George VI’s crowning.

However, the link to Marie Antoinette, the last queen of France, may have been the most intriguing selling point for the mystery buyer.

Some of the jewels are believed to have been at the centre of the Affair of the Diamond Necklace – a scandal which is said to have paved the way for Antoinette’s eventual downfall.

The scandal erupted when a hard-up noblewoman, Jeanne de la Motte, pretended to be the queen and acquired a hugely expensive necklace in her name without paying.

Antoinette, who was accused of having a hand in the scam, was acquitted in a trial. But the affair discredited her further in the eyes of the French people – among whom she was already deeply unpopular.

Her reputation never recovered, her public appearances all but ceased, and the number of pamphlets containing malicious gossip about her increased.

It also added to her reputation for extravagance that helped fuel the French Revolution – with the queen beheaded in 1793.

Jewels from the original necklace – which contained nearly 650 diamonds and weighed almost 2,800 carats – were
later sold on the black market, making them hard to trace.

However, a Bond Street jeweller testified at the time that he bought about 350 of them for just over £10,000, according to Sotheby’s.

Experts say the quality and age of the diamonds in the necklace sold on Wednesday point to a match.

“It’s likely or possible that some of these diamonds may have come from the famous diamond necklace that led to the downfall of Marie Antoinette,” said Jessica Wyndham, Sotheby’s head of magnificent jewels.

The Georgian-era piece measures 67cm and hadn’t been seen in public for 50 years before it came up for sale.

Its final sale price of over 4.2 million Swiss francs was double its pre-auction valuation.