Bitcoin price is down today after new U.S. inflation data has investors wondering about how long the Feds interest rate hikes will last. 70604 Total views 137 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Own this piece of history
Collect this article as an NFT The bullish momentum that propelled Bitcoin (BTC) price to a 2023 high of $25,000 initially on Feb. 16 and Feb. 20 appears to have waned. The pause in bullish momentum appears connected to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing higher interest rate hikes and large amounts of long liquidations.
The contraction in Bitcoin price follows a market-wide decline, and analysts fear that the crypto market continues to face considerable danger from the the United States Federal Reserves interest rate decisions.
Lets take a closer look at the factors impacting Bitcoin price today.Stocks drop on high inflation data
Stocks and Bitcoin tumbled after the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Feb. 24 which showed inflation rising 5.4% in January compared to the previous year. Core inflation, which is one of the Federal Reserves favorite tools to gauge inflation, was up 4.7% compared to January 2022.PCE price index. Source: BEA
While the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks hit its lowest level since 2021 on Feb. 22, Bitcoin price remains closely correlated to equities and the stock market. Investors have previously expressed strong concerns about a potential upcoming recession in the U.S. economy.Bitcoin, Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Source: TradingView
While some analysts believe Bitcoins current price represents a generational buying opportunity at current levels, others believe BTCs close correlation to the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and equities is reflected by the price weakness to retain the $24,000 level.
Bitcoin price is reacting to the markets consensus expectation that inflation is not yet under control which will lead the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. Rising interest rates in the U.S. and abroad weigh on Bitcoin price
The PCE report is the Federal Reserves favorite tool to gauge inflation. And with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still aiming to reach 2% overall inflation, further interest rate hikes are expected. Inflation has been a determining factor in raising interest rates. In order to combat inflation, Chairman Powell may not be able to pivot the aggressive rate hike strategy.
The PCE report is leading the market to speculate that a 0.5% interest rate hike is possible at the FOMC meeting on March 22.Rate increase probability. Source: CME Group
On the back of persistently sticky inflation, some analysts believe Bitcoin is in for a cold winter and the price could continue to see volatility leading into the FOMC.
On Feb. 24, in a span of 5 hours, over $95 million in Bitcoin longs were liquidated. When BTC longs are liquidated without buy pressure from trading volume, Bitcoin price is negatively affected. While Chinas recent monetary easing injected $92 billion in liquidity to the Chinese economy, it did not stop BTC longs from being liquidated.BTC liquidations. Source: CoinglassIs there a chance for Bitcoin price to reverse course?
On Jan. 23 and Jan. 24, the Bitcoin futures market saw $230 million in liquidations on long positions. This put further pressure on BTC price. When BTC longs are liquidated without buy pressure from trading volume, Bitcoin price is negatively affected. Real BTC-USD Daily Volume. Source: Arcane Research
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The recent uptick in Bitcoin trading volume could be because of Binances removal of trading fees. Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at Arcane Research presumed from data that:However, volumes are still concentrated on Binance following Binances removal of tradingfees. Volumes on the other spot exchanges sit below the peaks from January at $680m, asBinances volume still represents 95% of the daily BTC spot volume.
If this is the case, that means there is not a large cushion of buy pressure for Bitcoin long liquidations leading to further downside. And with recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) actions against Binance, more assets are flowing from exchanges.
The short-term uncertainties in the crypto market do not appear to have changed institutional investors’ long-term outlook. According to BNY Mellon CEO Robin Vince, a poll commissioned by the bank found that 91% of institutional investors were interested in investing in tokenized assets in the following years.
CME, a leading tool for institutional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure, has seen its dominance grow in 2023. Open interest in CMEs Bitcoin future has grown by 8,000 BTC since Feb. 17.CME BTC futures open interest. Source: Arcane Research
Data shows CME BTC options also representing a majority of Bitcoins open interest.
Futures premiums are rising.
CME's basis sits at 8.7%, the highest since Nov 2021, trading at a premium to offshore futures' 6.3%.
CME also accounts for 68.2% of the BTC futures market, excluding perps. The futures dominance offshore has fallen steadily throughout the year. pic.twitter.com/wxxiCJNh9H— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) February 24, 2023
In the short term, worries are high with Bitcoin price being directly impacted by macroeconomic events, and it is also likely that potential rate hikes at the next FOMC is also having some effect on BTC price.
In the long term market participants still expect the price of Bitcoin to go up, especially as more banks and financial institutions are seemingly turning to digital cash for settlement purposes even amidst the chaos.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Altcoin #Federal Reserve #Central Bank #Bitcoin Price #Bitcoin Regulation #Markets #Cryptocurrency Exchange #Interest Rate #BTC Markets #Interest Rates
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In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.
We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.
The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.
They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.
Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.
Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.
He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.
His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.
‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’
Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.
We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.
“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.
He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.
Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.
Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.
“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.
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It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.
Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.
A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.
He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.
“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”
Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.
Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.
Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.
“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”
Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.
He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.
“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.
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These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.
Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.
Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.
“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.
But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.
“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”
Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.
The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.
Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.
A man accused of being a major supplier of the boats and engines used by cross-Channel people smugglers to bring migrants to the UK has been arrested.
The Turkish national, 44, was held at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport on Wednesday and faces extradition to Belgium to face human smuggling charges, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said.
He is suspected of supplying the engines and boats used by traffickers to bring migrants across the Channel.
The equipment was shipped from Turkey and stored in Germany before being brought to northern France when needed.
NCA director general Rob Jones hailed the arrest as an “important milestone” in one of its most “significant investigations into organised immigration crime”.
“We suspect that this individual is a major supplier of boats and engines to the smugglers operating in Belgium and northern France,” he said.
“The types of vessels and engines we see used in making these crossings are highly dangerous and completely unfit for open water.
“At least 50 people are known to have died this year as a result. There is no legitimate use for them.”
More than 32,000 migrants have arrived in the UK so far this year after crossing the Channel.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described the arrest as a “significant piece of the jigsaw” in tackling Channel crossings, but added: “I’m not pretending it’s the silver bullet.”
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He vowed the government would “treat people smugglers like terrorists” as he announced an extra £75m for his border security command during a speech at the Interpol general assembly in Glasgow last week.
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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “We will relentlessly pursue the criminal smuggling gangs making millions out of small boat crossings that undermine our border security and put lives at risk.
“This major investigation shows how important it is for our crime fighting agencies to be working hand in glove with our international partners to get results.”
The NCA said it is leading around 70 ongoing investigations into networks or people “in the top tier” of organised immigration crime or people trafficking and stressed the importance of working with its counterparts in Europe.
A spokesperson for the public prosecutor’s office of West Flanders said: “International cooperation is crucial in the fight against human smuggling, and the arrest of this suspect through close cooperation with our UK and Dutch partners demonstrates our ongoing commitment to partnership working.
“Human smuggling criminals do not respect national borders, and we will relentlessly pursue these criminals through working internationally.”