Northern Ireland Protocol: Rishi Sunak has so far kept his Brexit talks trump card under wraps – this is what could be in the deal and why it could face trouble ahead
Enemies are circling, Brexiteers are already pronouncing it dead, and the DUP are warning it undermines the Union.
But as opponents line up to try and assassinate Rishi Sunak’s forthcoming deal with Brussels to rework Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit future, Sky News can reveal that Number 10 is yet to play its trump card.
Despite weeks of headlines and column inches about the talks, Downing Street has so far kept under wraps what some believe is perhaps the biggest negotiation win.
Far from giving ground to the EU, they think they have turned the tables and forced a concession.
In short, Westminster will set VAT rates, taxation and state aid policy in Northern Ireland, not Brussels.
Politics latest: Tory MPs told to be in Westminster on Monday amid Brexit deal speculation
Mr Sunak has made addressing the disparity over VAT a priority ever since his last budget as chancellor, when Northern Ireland could not benefit from his decision to slash the tax on solar panels and other energy efficient purchases elsewhere in the UK because it must follow EU single market rules.
Downing Street is unwilling to reveal any change is coming publicly, insisting that “intensive” negotiations are still under way, giving them nothing yet to announce.
However, Sky News understands that the concession by Brussels is likely to feature at the heart of the reform package.
DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson
Some MPs have been alerted to the likely inclusion of this change, it is welcomed privately by senior DUP figures, and it is understood to be one of the three major changes at the heart of the Sunak deal with Brussels. The DUP’s only reservation is that they want to see the legal text to check the concession is as described.
It is not clear, however, whether it will be enough.
After months of official negotiations, what some see as basic errors – and an information vacuum – may have allowed too much of a head of steam to build up behind the opposition.
As a result, it is now unclear whether the changes hammered out with Brussels since December will ever be implemented.
Mr Sunak is facing splits amongst key allies over how and whether to proceed, with warnings that he’s not strong enough to face down his party and growing anxiety in Brussels that the first prime minister they have trusted since Brexit may be about to let them down.
The next few days could end up being the most consequential of his premiership.
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‘Collapse of Good Friday Agreement absolute catastrophe’
What is in the forthcoming deal?
The patchwork of measures and agreements to change the Northern Ireland Protocol have been prepared in utmost secrecy.
Taken together, those involved say it required the EU to change its negotiating mandate and agree to alter the text of the Protocol – something Brussels said was not possible during the premierships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
Under the Sunak proposals, three key changes to that arrangement are likely to be agreed.
The first has been well trailed: businesses that have signed up to a “trusted trader scheme” will be allowed to avoid all checks when moving goods from the GB mainland to Northern Ireland.
In exchange, the EU will be able to access “real-time” UK data on trade flows across the Irish Sea. The handful of companies who are not signed up to the trusted trader scheme would have to continue labelling and filling in paperwork as at present.
The second – known as the “Stormont Lock”, first mentioned in The Sunday Times – is designed to go some way towards addressing concerns that Northern Ireland will remain subject to EU single market rules under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice as the price of avoiding border checks between the North and the Republic.
Read more:
What are the DUP’s seven tests for changes to the NI Protocol?
Rishi Sunak leaves the Culloden Hotel in Belfast, after holding talks with Stormont leaders last week
It is very complicated, but essentially it will give Northern Ireland some of the rights also enjoyed by Norway – which is also out of the EU but in the single market, so it has a say on the rules being imposed by Brussels.
Under the terms of the proposed deal, the EU will have to give the UK notice of future EU regulations intended for Northern Ireland. The Joint Ministerial Committee will then be able to lodge an objection, which may then result in the EU voluntarily choosing to disapply the regulation in Northern Ireland.
Alternatively, the Speaker of the Stormont Assembly could put the issue to a vote, which could delay when the forthcoming regulation comes into force. If the EU decides to take legal action because of a failure to implement the rule, then a Northern Ireland court would have to rule on the issue first, resulting in further delays.
This movement is likely to be welcomed by some. But this is arguably the biggest area of compromise for Brexiteers and unionists, since it does not give the outright veto on future EU regulations, which is something the DUP want.
The third change is the one revealed at the start of this article: that control of the so-called level playing field of measures, like VAT rates and state subsidy policy, will revert to Westminster. For constitutionalists, this will be seen as an important change.
Almost complete for some time, according to sources, none of this package has been formally briefed to the parties or the public.
Number 10 insists that negotiations are live, but other government sources suggest there is almost no activity still going on, and the principles of the agreement are settled even if there is some haggling on wording still to do.
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PM ‘won’t sell anyone out’
How the deal was done
Mr Sunak came into office wanting to establish a reputation for sorting out problems, particularly the poor relations with the EU and – to a lesser extent the US – over Brexit.
The PM wanted to ensure President Biden turns up in Northern Ireland for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement this Easter, meaning he needed to do a deal to ensure the Stormont Assembly was back up and running by then.
For this to happen, the PM needed the DUP to agree to a deal on the Protocol, and then go back into powersharing with Sinn Fein in order to form a government.
So, one key objective throughout these negotiations has been for Mr Sunak to get the hardline unionists on board. It was always a tall order, but it was one he chose to attempt. But it is on precisely this issue that Number 10 took an extraordinary – and some think reckless – gamble.
Despite needing the DUP onside, they decided not to talk to them personally. They decided that they did not want them involved in any way in the negotiations or feeding in thoughts, fearing this would make the talks unmanageable, so they were shut out.
Senior DUP sources tell me there were “no backchannels” to try and scope out what they needed, which they said was a contrast even from the Theresa May era.
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Sunak and Starmer clash over Protocol
Instead, the UK negotiating team were told to look up the DUP’s seven tests for a Northern Ireland Protocol replacement – which feature prominently on their website and in speeches by leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson – and find a solution to each one. One insider described it as the “spreadsheet approach” to the issue.
“We assumed that if you solve the problems in the seven tests, the DUP would be on board. That was certainly the presumption all the way along,” said one government source.
Then in an extraordinary moment three weeks ago, government sources started briefing the newspapers that the deal had successfully answered every one of the DUP’s tests, but without offering an explanation of how or why.
This entire approach flabbergasted the DUP. The tests were drawn up 18 months ago, in another political environment. They range from the broad – number four is “Giving NI people a say in their laws” – to the specific, such as number five, which states “No checks on goods between GB/NI”.
Read more:
What do we know about the deal being discussed by the UK and EU?
They were devised after conversations with the Johnson government, and were not designed to have a binary answer. Whether the tests were met was to be judged by the DUP alone.
Yet now the government was briefing journalists that the DUP’s concerns had been soothed, and their objections dealt with, without even telling them how.
“These tests weren’t designed to be used in that way”, said one senior DUP member. “If we’d known they were going to assume this level of importance we would have rewritten them and sharpened them”, they said.
Meanwhile, the DUP baulking at the tests has caused huge anger in government. Privately, some accuse the party of game playing and moving the goal posts. The DUP retort that if the goal was to get them on side, they should have opened a dialogue with them in person.
This move worsened the politics, although both sides also acknowledge that however badly Number 10 may have handled this, there was perhaps no deal ever to be made that satisfied both the DUP and the EU.
The trouble is, Downing Street only now appears to be grappling with this outcome afresh, with Brexiteers rowing in behind the DUP to make clear they are going to oppose the deal outlined.
So what next?
It is unclear how the prime minister will proceed. He has three options: press ahead, fully renegotiate or abandon his plan.
If he presses forward in the face of DUP and ERG opposition, he could face trench warfare in the Commons, whether or not any deal is put to a vote.
Mr Sunak would try to become the first Tory PM since 2010 to take on the Eurosceptics and not lose – as David Cameron did ultimately in 2016, then Theresa May did in 2019.
Alternatively, Mr Sunak could fully resume the negotiations, which despite the rhetoric, are mostly on pause at the moment.
However, the EU is unlikely to give more, and cannot bow to the DUP demand that Northern Ireland is no longer bound by future EU rules – for fear of destabilising member states and Norway, which is also in the single market but not the EU.
Or Mr Sunak could abandon the reforms, which would make clear the limits of his power and raise questions about whether he was running a “zombie” regime locked in coalition with truculent and weary Tory MPs.
If he does not do a deal, he will also have to decide whether to press ahead with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would give the UK government unilateral power to rip up the Northern Ireland section of the original Brexit treaty.
Rishi Sunak speaks during PMQs
Sky News understands that this is facing 90 amendments in the House of Lords, meaning that it is all but impossible to get through without resorting to the Parliament Act – the legislative nuclear option to override a veto by peers.
It is understood the PM is arguing against this in sessions with MPs, suggesting that a bitter parliamentary fight over the passage of the bill would reduce leverage with the EU rather than increase it as the ERG claim.
Mr Sunak has no easy options.
Once he is done with this, the next fight will be over legislation on migration, which some Tories believe will fail unless it goes further than is permitted by the European Convention on Human Rights – something that would enrage the EU all over again. The parade of Tory MPs raising this issue today in PMQs alone made clear the scale of the fight on that.
Meanwhile, within weeks, the privileges committee inquiry into whether former PM Boris Johnson lied at the despatch box will begin, with televised hearings raking over the wounds of one of the most painful episodes of recent Tory history.
The prime minister may have calmed things down, but there are toxic challenges ahead. Can he prove he’s not running a lame duck administration, or will it get worse?
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The presumption in Westminster is the next general election will take place in the back half of next year.
But it only takes 37 Tory MPs to defy the PM and vote in a confidence vote alongside the opposition to trigger an election. Could things get that heated?
A number of “priceless” objects were stolen from the Louvre in Paris, in what has been called the “theft of the decade”.
In broad daylight, thieves broke into the world-famous museum and accessed a gallery containing the French Crown Jewels.
A manhunt for those responsible is currently ongoing, with police facing a “race against time” to retrieve the jewels before they are dismantled.
Here’s all you need to know.
How the heist unfolded
The heist took place at roughly 9.30am (8.30am UK time), half an hour after the Louvre had opened its doors to the public.
The thieves used a crane that was mounted on the back of a small truck to smash an upstairs window and enter the Galerie d’Apollon.
Police officers work by a crane believed to have been used by thieves. Pic: AP
This is an enormous room on the upper floor of the Petite Galerie, which houses the French Crown Jewels as well as the royal collection of hardstone vessels, paintings, tapestries and medallions, the museum’s website says.
The thieves smashed two display cases and fled on motorbikes. No-one was hurt in the incident.
Guards were alerted to the scene by alarms that went off when the cases were smashed, but the thieves had already left.
It is not clear if the gang brought any or all of the equipment they used with them, as construction work is taking place along the River Seine side of the building where the break-in occurred.
The entire theft took between six and seven minutes.
What was stolen?
A total of nine objects were targeted in the heist, and eight were actually stolen. The thieves dropped the ninth one, the crown of Napoleon III’s wife, Empress Eugenie, during their escape.
Officials have described the stolen items as having “inestimable” historical value.
The following pieces remain missing:
What will happen to the jewellery?
Art detective Arthur Brand described the heist as “the theft of the decade” – adding that in order to recover the “priceless” items, police will need to find the culprits within the week.
“These crown jewels are so famous, you just cannot sell them,” Mr Brand told Sky News. “The only thing they can do is melt the silver and gold down, dismantle the diamonds, try to cut them. That’s the way they will probably disappear forever.”
He continued: “They [the police] have a week. If they catch the thieves, the stuff might still be there. If it takes longer, the loot is probably gone and dismantled. It’s a race against time.”
The tiara (top), necklace (middle) and one earring were taken from the Queen Marie Amelie sapphire set. Pic: Louvre
Tobias Kormind, managing director of Mayfair-based 77 Diamonds, agreed, saying it is “unlikely” the jewels will ever be seen again.
“Professional crews often break down and re-cut large, recognizable stones to evade detection, effectively erasing their provenance,” he said.
Emerald necklace and earrings from the parure of Empress Marie-Louise. Pic: The Louvre
Authorities have said forensic teams are currently reviewing CCTV from the Denon wing and the riverfront of the museum, inspecting the crane used to reach the gallery and interviewing staff who were on site when the museum opened.
Who was behind the heist?
According to French media, there were four perpetrators: two dressed as construction workers in yellow safety vests on the lift, and two others who had a scooter each.
French authorities have not confirmed these details; however, one yellow vest has been recovered from the scene.
Culture Minister Rachida Dati told French news outlet TF1 that footage of the theft showed the masked robbers entering “calmly” and smashing display cases containing the jewels. No one was injured in the incident.
A window believed to have been used in the robbery. Pic: Reuters
She described the thieves as seemingly being “experienced” with a well-prepared plan.
Paris Prosecutor Laure Beccuau told BFM TV that the robbers were unarmed but threatened guards with angle grinders.
The group also tried and failed to set fire to the crane they used to enter the Louvre.
A key question that remains is whether the robbers had inside assistance, authorities said.
French interior minister Laurent Nunez said the specialised police unit, which has a high success rate in cracking high-profile robberies, is leading the investigation.
Ms Beccuau added that investigators were keeping all leads open, but authorities were “looking at the hypothesis of organised crime”.
She said the thieves could have been working for a buyer, or seeking to get access to jewels that can be useful to
launder criminal proceeds.
Questions over security
Big questions are now being asked about the security in place at the Louvre, and how effective it is.
Earlier this year, officials at the Louvre requested urgent help from the French government to restore and renovate the museum’s ageing exhibition halls and better protect its countless works of art.
Police officers near the pyramid of the Louvre museum. Pic: Reuters
French justice minister Gerard Darmanin said on Monday that the heist gave a very negative image of France as it implied a failure of security services.
“There are many museums in Paris, many museums in France, with priceless values in these museums,” Mr Darmanin said in an interview with French radio station France Inter.
“What is certain is that we failed,” he said, adding the police will eventually arrest the authors.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said in a post on X that everything was being done to recover the stolen jewellery and bring the perpetrators to justice.
While culture minister Rachida Dati said the issue of museum security was not new.
“For 40 years, there was little focus on securing these major museums, and two years ago, the president of the Louvre
requested a security audit from the police prefect. Why? Because museums must adapt to new forms of crime,” she said.
World
Tel Aviv football derby cancelled after ‘violent riots’, as club describes ‘brutal police violence’
A football derby in Tel Aviv between Hapoel and Maccabi has been cancelled after “violent riots”, according to Israeli police.
Nine people were arrested on Sunday night at Bloomfield Stadium, a venue shared by both clubs. Hapoel were the home team for the game.
A statement from Israeli police said the game was called off “following disturbances and violent riots” in which 13 civilians and three officers were injured by pyrotechnic devices.
“These are very serious incidents that posed a real danger to the lives of police officers and civilians,” the statement added.
But Hapoel Tel Aviv Football Club released a statement with a very different perspective on policing at the match.
“From the preliminary discussions prior to the match, it appears that the police were preparing for war rather than a sporting event,” a spokesperson said.
Outside the stadium, mounted police attempt to control crowds. Pic: Israeli police
Footage released by Israeli police shows a flare or firework landing near officers. Pic: Israeli police
They added: “Most of the injuries from the event were caused by brutal police violence at the end of the game, as a direct result of the scandalous decision to cancel the event.
“Everyone saw the disturbing videos of children being trampled by horses and police officers indiscriminately beating fans.”
Israeli police have not yet responded to the allegations from Hapoel.
A Maccabi statement read: “Following the police’s decision, it was determined that the Tel Aviv derby will not take place tonight.”
Footage shared by the police shows projectiles and flares being thrown on to the pitch, as well as unrest outside the stadium and arrests being made.
What looked like smoke canisters were seized by officers. Pic: Israeli police
Maccabi ban criticised
On Thursday, Maccabi supporters were told they are not allowed to attend November’s Europa League game against Aston Villa in Birmingham next month after a decision by Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG).
The group – made up of local stakeholders, including representatives from the council, police and event organisers – said the decision was due to a high risk of violence based on “current intelligence and previous incidents”.
Ed Miliband told Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that ministers are “working with the relevant authorities” to secure additional resources and ensure fans of both teams can attend next month’s European clash.
He insisted Aston in Birmingham cannot become a “no-go area” for Jews.
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Aston ‘can’t be no-go area for Jews’
The energy secretary also said that he “profoundly” disagrees with the “approach” taken by a local MP who started a petition calling for fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv to be banned from the Aston Villa game.
The petition states: “Their arrival in Aston – a diverse and predominantly Muslim community – poses a real risk of tensions within the community and disorder.”
Mr Miliband pushed back on that point. He said the “vast majority of Muslim people in this country would disassociate themselves” from suggestions that Maccabi Tel Aviv fans could not come to Aston Villa because it was a predominantly Muslim area.
His Tory counterpart, Claire Coutinho, was also highly critical of the petition, telling Phillips: “I think politicians need to have the courage to name some of the problems that this country is facing. And one of those problems is political Islam.”
Read more from Sky News:
Maccabi ban could be reversed
Why are Maccabi Tel Aviv fans banned?
Analysis: Ban raises serious questions
Petition reaction ‘false and inflammatory’
The independent MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, Ayoub Khan, criticised those comments.
“I utterly reject the false and inflammatory characterisations… regarding my recent petition,” he said in a statement.
“The petition I launched reflected genuine and widespread concern from my constituents about public safety and community cohesion. It did not call for anyone to be ‘banned because they are Jewish’ nor did it single out any faith or ethnicity.
“To distort this into an issue of religion or antisemitism is deeply irresponsible and frankly dangerous. I have consistently condemned all forms of hatred – including antisemitism and Islamophobia – and I will continue to do so.”
The government is expecting West Midlands Police to set out early next week what they would need to police the game safely with both sets of fans present.
A cargo plane has skidded off the runway into the sea while landing at Hong Kong International Airport, killing two people on the ground.
Images taken after the crash which happened around 3.50am (8.50pm UK time) showed a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft partially submerged in water near the airport’s sea wall.
The AirACT plane, travelling from Dubai, could be seen with escape slides deployed and the nose and tail sections separated. Four crew on board survived.
The nose and tail sections separated after the crash. Pic: Reuters
Escape slides were deployed and all four crew survived. Pic: Reuters
Rescue teams circle the partially submerged green tail of the aircraft. Pic: AP
Two security staff were killed when the aircraft struck their vehicle, shunting it into the sea, said Steven Yiu, executive director of airport operations at Airport Authority Hong Kong.
At a news conference, he told reporters about the rescue operation.
“Four aircraft crew on board were quickly rescued by Fire Service Department [which] also rescued two security staff from the sea.
“One was certified dead at the hospital and the other certified dead at the scene.
“We are deeply saddened and extend our deepest condolence. We will provide the family with all necessary support and assistance.”
Steven Yiu from Airport Authority Hong Kong told reporters two security staff have been killed. Pic: AP
Mr Yiu showed a map of the northern runway and the crash site. Pic: AP
He explained that the security vehicle was patrolling the north runway along a road that was outside the runway fence when it was struck.
The northern runway at the world’s busiest cargo airport is closed while the south and central runways are continuing to operate.
“According to information we have at that moment, weather and the runway condition were safe and met all conditions for runway operation. An investigation is continuing.” Mr Yiu added.
Emirates said in a statement that flight EK9788 sustained damage on landing in Hong Kong on Monday and was a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft wet-leased from and operated by ACT Airlines.
“Crew are confirmed to be safe and there was no cargo onboard,” the airline said.
Read more from Sky News:
Eight ‘priceless’ objects stolen in Louvre heist
Gaza ceasefire ‘resumes’ after killings
Tel Aviv derby cancelled after ‘violent riots’
Man Ka-chai, chief accident and safety investigator for Hong Kong’s Air Accident Investigation Authority, confirmed air
traffic control had directed the flight to land at the north runway, but added: “We didn’t receive any message requesting
help from the pilot.”
ACT Airlines is a Turkish carrier that provides extra cargo capacity to major airlines. It did not respond immediately to a request for comment outside normal business hours.
Flight tracking service FlightRadar24 said the aircraft involved in the accident was 32 years old and had served as a passenger plane before being converted into a freighter.
Hong Kong’s Civil Aviation Department said in a statement that the aircraft had “deviated from the north runway after landing and ditched into the sea”.
Airport Authority Hong Kong said the northern runway would reopen after safety inspections were complete.
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