Northern Ireland Protocol: Rishi Sunak has so far kept his Brexit talks trump card under wraps – this is what could be in the deal and why it could face trouble ahead
Enemies are circling, Brexiteers are already pronouncing it dead, and the DUP are warning it undermines the Union.
But as opponents line up to try and assassinate Rishi Sunak’s forthcoming deal with Brussels to rework Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit future, Sky News can reveal that Number 10 is yet to play its trump card.
Despite weeks of headlines and column inches about the talks, Downing Street has so far kept under wraps what some believe is perhaps the biggest negotiation win.
Far from giving ground to the EU, they think they have turned the tables and forced a concession.
In short, Westminster will set VAT rates, taxation and state aid policy in Northern Ireland, not Brussels.
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Mr Sunak has made addressing the disparity over VAT a priority ever since his last budget as chancellor, when Northern Ireland could not benefit from his decision to slash the tax on solar panels and other energy efficient purchases elsewhere in the UK because it must follow EU single market rules.
Downing Street is unwilling to reveal any change is coming publicly, insisting that “intensive” negotiations are still under way, giving them nothing yet to announce.
However, Sky News understands that the concession by Brussels is likely to feature at the heart of the reform package.
DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson
Some MPs have been alerted to the likely inclusion of this change, it is welcomed privately by senior DUP figures, and it is understood to be one of the three major changes at the heart of the Sunak deal with Brussels. The DUP’s only reservation is that they want to see the legal text to check the concession is as described.
It is not clear, however, whether it will be enough.
After months of official negotiations, what some see as basic errors – and an information vacuum – may have allowed too much of a head of steam to build up behind the opposition.
As a result, it is now unclear whether the changes hammered out with Brussels since December will ever be implemented.
Mr Sunak is facing splits amongst key allies over how and whether to proceed, with warnings that he’s not strong enough to face down his party and growing anxiety in Brussels that the first prime minister they have trusted since Brexit may be about to let them down.
The next few days could end up being the most consequential of his premiership.
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‘Collapse of Good Friday Agreement absolute catastrophe’
What is in the forthcoming deal?
The patchwork of measures and agreements to change the Northern Ireland Protocol have been prepared in utmost secrecy.
Taken together, those involved say it required the EU to change its negotiating mandate and agree to alter the text of the Protocol – something Brussels said was not possible during the premierships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
Under the Sunak proposals, three key changes to that arrangement are likely to be agreed.
The first has been well trailed: businesses that have signed up to a “trusted trader scheme” will be allowed to avoid all checks when moving goods from the GB mainland to Northern Ireland.
In exchange, the EU will be able to access “real-time” UK data on trade flows across the Irish Sea. The handful of companies who are not signed up to the trusted trader scheme would have to continue labelling and filling in paperwork as at present.
The second – known as the “Stormont Lock”, first mentioned in The Sunday Times – is designed to go some way towards addressing concerns that Northern Ireland will remain subject to EU single market rules under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice as the price of avoiding border checks between the North and the Republic.
Read more:
What are the DUP’s seven tests for changes to the NI Protocol?
Rishi Sunak leaves the Culloden Hotel in Belfast, after holding talks with Stormont leaders last week
It is very complicated, but essentially it will give Northern Ireland some of the rights also enjoyed by Norway – which is also out of the EU but in the single market, so it has a say on the rules being imposed by Brussels.
Under the terms of the proposed deal, the EU will have to give the UK notice of future EU regulations intended for Northern Ireland. The Joint Ministerial Committee will then be able to lodge an objection, which may then result in the EU voluntarily choosing to disapply the regulation in Northern Ireland.
Alternatively, the Speaker of the Stormont Assembly could put the issue to a vote, which could delay when the forthcoming regulation comes into force. If the EU decides to take legal action because of a failure to implement the rule, then a Northern Ireland court would have to rule on the issue first, resulting in further delays.
This movement is likely to be welcomed by some. But this is arguably the biggest area of compromise for Brexiteers and unionists, since it does not give the outright veto on future EU regulations, which is something the DUP want.
The third change is the one revealed at the start of this article: that control of the so-called level playing field of measures, like VAT rates and state subsidy policy, will revert to Westminster. For constitutionalists, this will be seen as an important change.
Almost complete for some time, according to sources, none of this package has been formally briefed to the parties or the public.
Number 10 insists that negotiations are live, but other government sources suggest there is almost no activity still going on, and the principles of the agreement are settled even if there is some haggling on wording still to do.
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PM ‘won’t sell anyone out’
How the deal was done
Mr Sunak came into office wanting to establish a reputation for sorting out problems, particularly the poor relations with the EU and – to a lesser extent the US – over Brexit.
The PM wanted to ensure President Biden turns up in Northern Ireland for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement this Easter, meaning he needed to do a deal to ensure the Stormont Assembly was back up and running by then.
For this to happen, the PM needed the DUP to agree to a deal on the Protocol, and then go back into powersharing with Sinn Fein in order to form a government.
So, one key objective throughout these negotiations has been for Mr Sunak to get the hardline unionists on board. It was always a tall order, but it was one he chose to attempt. But it is on precisely this issue that Number 10 took an extraordinary – and some think reckless – gamble.
Despite needing the DUP onside, they decided not to talk to them personally. They decided that they did not want them involved in any way in the negotiations or feeding in thoughts, fearing this would make the talks unmanageable, so they were shut out.
Senior DUP sources tell me there were “no backchannels” to try and scope out what they needed, which they said was a contrast even from the Theresa May era.
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Sunak and Starmer clash over Protocol
Instead, the UK negotiating team were told to look up the DUP’s seven tests for a Northern Ireland Protocol replacement – which feature prominently on their website and in speeches by leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson – and find a solution to each one. One insider described it as the “spreadsheet approach” to the issue.
“We assumed that if you solve the problems in the seven tests, the DUP would be on board. That was certainly the presumption all the way along,” said one government source.
Then in an extraordinary moment three weeks ago, government sources started briefing the newspapers that the deal had successfully answered every one of the DUP’s tests, but without offering an explanation of how or why.
This entire approach flabbergasted the DUP. The tests were drawn up 18 months ago, in another political environment. They range from the broad – number four is “Giving NI people a say in their laws” – to the specific, such as number five, which states “No checks on goods between GB/NI”.
Read more:
What do we know about the deal being discussed by the UK and EU?
They were devised after conversations with the Johnson government, and were not designed to have a binary answer. Whether the tests were met was to be judged by the DUP alone.
Yet now the government was briefing journalists that the DUP’s concerns had been soothed, and their objections dealt with, without even telling them how.
“These tests weren’t designed to be used in that way”, said one senior DUP member. “If we’d known they were going to assume this level of importance we would have rewritten them and sharpened them”, they said.
Meanwhile, the DUP baulking at the tests has caused huge anger in government. Privately, some accuse the party of game playing and moving the goal posts. The DUP retort that if the goal was to get them on side, they should have opened a dialogue with them in person.
This move worsened the politics, although both sides also acknowledge that however badly Number 10 may have handled this, there was perhaps no deal ever to be made that satisfied both the DUP and the EU.
The trouble is, Downing Street only now appears to be grappling with this outcome afresh, with Brexiteers rowing in behind the DUP to make clear they are going to oppose the deal outlined.
So what next?
It is unclear how the prime minister will proceed. He has three options: press ahead, fully renegotiate or abandon his plan.
If he presses forward in the face of DUP and ERG opposition, he could face trench warfare in the Commons, whether or not any deal is put to a vote.
Mr Sunak would try to become the first Tory PM since 2010 to take on the Eurosceptics and not lose – as David Cameron did ultimately in 2016, then Theresa May did in 2019.
Alternatively, Mr Sunak could fully resume the negotiations, which despite the rhetoric, are mostly on pause at the moment.
However, the EU is unlikely to give more, and cannot bow to the DUP demand that Northern Ireland is no longer bound by future EU rules – for fear of destabilising member states and Norway, which is also in the single market but not the EU.
Or Mr Sunak could abandon the reforms, which would make clear the limits of his power and raise questions about whether he was running a “zombie” regime locked in coalition with truculent and weary Tory MPs.
If he does not do a deal, he will also have to decide whether to press ahead with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would give the UK government unilateral power to rip up the Northern Ireland section of the original Brexit treaty.
Rishi Sunak speaks during PMQs
Sky News understands that this is facing 90 amendments in the House of Lords, meaning that it is all but impossible to get through without resorting to the Parliament Act – the legislative nuclear option to override a veto by peers.
It is understood the PM is arguing against this in sessions with MPs, suggesting that a bitter parliamentary fight over the passage of the bill would reduce leverage with the EU rather than increase it as the ERG claim.
Mr Sunak has no easy options.
Once he is done with this, the next fight will be over legislation on migration, which some Tories believe will fail unless it goes further than is permitted by the European Convention on Human Rights – something that would enrage the EU all over again. The parade of Tory MPs raising this issue today in PMQs alone made clear the scale of the fight on that.
Meanwhile, within weeks, the privileges committee inquiry into whether former PM Boris Johnson lied at the despatch box will begin, with televised hearings raking over the wounds of one of the most painful episodes of recent Tory history.
The prime minister may have calmed things down, but there are toxic challenges ahead. Can he prove he’s not running a lame duck administration, or will it get worse?
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The presumption in Westminster is the next general election will take place in the back half of next year.
But it only takes 37 Tory MPs to defy the PM and vote in a confidence vote alongside the opposition to trigger an election. Could things get that heated?
World
Tel Aviv football derby cancelled after ‘violent riots’, as club describes ‘brutal police violence’
A football derby in Tel Aviv between Hapoel and Maccabi has been cancelled after “violent riots”, according to Israeli police.
Nine people were arrested on Sunday night at Bloomfield Stadium, a venue shared by both clubs. Hapoel were the home team for the game.
A statement from Israeli police said the game was called off “following disturbances and violent riots” in which 13 civilians and three officers were injured by pyrotechnic devices.
“These are very serious incidents that posed a real danger to the lives of police officers and civilians,” the statement added.
But Hapoel Tel Aviv Football Club released a statement with a very different perspective on policing at the match.
“From the preliminary discussions prior to the match, it appears that the police were preparing for war rather than a sporting event,” a spokesperson said.
Outside the stadium, mounted police attempt to control crowds. Pic: Israeli police
Footage released by Israeli police shows a flare or firework landing near officers. Pic: Israeli police
They added: “Most of the injuries from the event were caused by brutal police violence at the end of the game, as a direct result of the scandalous decision to cancel the event.
“Everyone saw the disturbing videos of children being trampled by horses and police officers indiscriminately beating fans.”
Israeli police have not yet responded to the allegations from Hapoel.
A Maccabi statement read: “Following the police’s decision, it was determined that the Tel Aviv derby will not take place tonight.”
Footage shared by the police shows projectiles and flares being thrown on to the pitch, as well as unrest outside the stadium and arrests being made.
What looked like smoke canisters were seized by officers. Pic: Israeli police
Maccabi ban criticised
On Thursday, Maccabi supporters were told they are not allowed to attend November’s Europa League game against Aston Villa in Birmingham next month after a decision by Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG).
The group – made up of local stakeholders, including representatives from the council, police and event organisers – said the decision was due to a high risk of violence based on “current intelligence and previous incidents”.
Ed Miliband told Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that ministers are “working with the relevant authorities” to secure additional resources and ensure fans of both teams can attend next month’s European clash.
He insisted Aston in Birmingham cannot become a “no-go area” for Jews.
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Aston ‘can’t be no-go area for Jews’
The energy secretary also said that he “profoundly” disagrees with the “approach” taken by a local MP who started a petition calling for fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv to be banned from the Aston Villa game.
The petition states: “Their arrival in Aston – a diverse and predominantly Muslim community – poses a real risk of tensions within the community and disorder.”
Mr Miliband pushed back on that point. He said the “vast majority of Muslim people in this country would disassociate themselves” from suggestions that Maccabi Tel Aviv fans could not come to Aston Villa because it was a predominantly Muslim area.
His Tory counterpart, Claire Coutinho, was also highly critical of the petition, telling Phillips: “I think politicians need to have the courage to name some of the problems that this country is facing. And one of those problems is political Islam.”
Read more from Sky News:
Maccabi ban could be reversed
Why are Maccabi Tel Aviv fans banned?
Analysis: Ban raises serious questions
Petition reaction ‘false and inflammatory’
The independent MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, Ayoub Khan, criticised those comments.
“I utterly reject the false and inflammatory characterisations… regarding my recent petition,” he said in a statement.
“The petition I launched reflected genuine and widespread concern from my constituents about public safety and community cohesion. It did not call for anyone to be ‘banned because they are Jewish’ nor did it single out any faith or ethnicity.
“To distort this into an issue of religion or antisemitism is deeply irresponsible and frankly dangerous. I have consistently condemned all forms of hatred – including antisemitism and Islamophobia – and I will continue to do so.”
The government is expecting West Midlands Police to set out early next week what they would need to police the game safely with both sets of fans present.
A cargo plane has skidded off the runway into the sea while landing at Hong Kong International Airport, killing two people on the ground.
Images taken after the crash which happened around 3.50am (8.50pm UK time) showed a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft partially submerged in water near the airport’s sea wall.
The AirACT plane, travelling from Dubai, could be seen with escape slides deployed and the nose and tail sections separated. Four crew on board survived.
The nose and tail sections separated after the crash. Pic: Reuters
Escape slides were deployed and all four crew survived. Pic: Reuters
Rescue teams circle the partially submerged green tail of the aircraft. Pic: AP
Two security staff were killed when the aircraft struck their vehicle, shunting it into the sea, said Steven Yiu, executive director of airport operations at Airport Authority Hong Kong.
At a news conference, he told reporters about the rescue operation.
“Four aircraft crew on board were quickly rescued by Fire Service Department [which] also rescued two security staff from the sea.
“One was certified dead at the hospital and the other certified dead at the scene.
“We are deeply saddened and extend our deepest condolence. We will provide the family with all necessary support and assistance.”
Steven Yiu from Airport Authority Hong Kong told reporters two security staff have been killed. Pic: AP
Mr Yiu showed a map of the northern runway and the crash site. Pic: AP
He explained that the security vehicle was patrolling the north runway along a road that was outside the runway fence when it was struck.
The northern runway at the world’s busiest cargo airport is closed while the south and central runways are continuing to operate.
“According to information we have at that moment, weather and the runway condition were safe and met all conditions for runway operation. An investigation is continuing.” Mr Yiu added.
Emirates said in a statement that flight EK9788 sustained damage on landing in Hong Kong on Monday and was a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft wet-leased from and operated by ACT Airlines.
“Crew are confirmed to be safe and there was no cargo onboard,” the airline said.
Read more from Sky News:
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Tel Aviv derby cancelled after ‘violent riots’
Man Ka-chai, chief accident and safety investigator for Hong Kong’s Air Accident Investigation Authority, confirmed air
traffic control had directed the flight to land at the north runway, but added: “We didn’t receive any message requesting
help from the pilot.”
ACT Airlines is a Turkish carrier that provides extra cargo capacity to major airlines. It did not respond immediately to a request for comment outside normal business hours.
Flight tracking service FlightRadar24 said the aircraft involved in the accident was 32 years old and had served as a passenger plane before being converted into a freighter.
Hong Kong’s Civil Aviation Department said in a statement that the aircraft had “deviated from the north runway after landing and ditched into the sea”.
Airport Authority Hong Kong said the northern runway would reopen after safety inspections were complete.
World
‘Race against time’ as police try to recover ‘priceless’ jewels from Louvre – as authorities reveal details of daring raid
Police face “a race against time” to recover “priceless” objects stolen by thieves in a daring heist at the Louvre museum in Paris, Sky News has been told.
The world-famous museum was forced to close on Sunday after thieves accessed a gallery containing the French Crown Jewels at around 9.30am local time.
Art detective Arthur Brand said the heist is “the theft of the decade” – adding in order to recover the “priceless” items, police will need to find the culprits in just one week.
“These crown jewels are so famous, you just cannot sell them,” Mr Brand told Sky News. “The only thing they can do is melt the silver and gold down, dismantle the diamonds, try to cut them. That’s the way they will probably disappear forever.”
He continued: “They [the police] have a week. If they catch the thieves, the stuff might still be there. If it takes longer, the loot is probably gone and dismantled. It’s a race against time.”
Eight “priceless” objects stolen have been named by the French culture ministry. A ninth item was stolen but recovered at the scene, the Paris prosecutor said.
The French culture ministry said the items stolen were:
• Tiara from the set of Queen Marie-Amelie and Queen Hortense
• Necklace from the sapphire set of Queen Marie-Amelie and Queen Hortense
• Earring, from the pair belonging to the sapphire set of Queen Marie-Amelie and Queen Hortense
The tiara (top), necklace (middle) and one earring were taken from the Queen Marie Amelie sapphire set. Pic: Louvre
• Emerald necklace from the Empress Marie Louise set
• Pair of emerald earrings from the Empress Marie Louise set
Empress Marie Louise’s emerald necklace and earrings. Pic: Louvre
• Brooch known as the “reliquary brooch”
• Tiara of Empress Eugenie
• Large corsage bow brooch of Empress Eugenie.
The Empress Eugenie tiara. Pic: Louvre
The Empress Eugenie brooch contains 2,438 diamonds. Pic: Louvre
French publication Le Parisien previously reported that the object recovered at the museum was the crown of Napoleon III’s wife, Empress Eugenie, and it was broken.
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Louvre heist: What we know so far?
Authorities revealed details of the raid after the museum, which is the world’s most popular and draws up to 30,000 visitors a day, said on X that it was closing for “exceptional reasons”.
Police working by a basket lift used by thieves at the Louvre museum in Paris. Pic: AP
The world famous museum attracts tens of thousands of people every day. File pic: AP
Culture minister Rachida Dati said footage of the operation showed the thieves “don’t target people, they enter calmly in four minutes, smash display cases, take their loot, and leave”.
“No violence, very professional,” she told TF1.
How the robbery unfolded
French interior minister Laurent Nunez said the “major robbery” involved intruders entering the museum via a basket lift using a platform mounted on a lorry.
It is not clear if they brought any or all of the equipment they used with them, as construction work is taking place along the River Seine side of the sprawling building, where the break-in occurred.
Mr Nunez said: “They broke a window and went towards several display cases where they stole jewellery. These are jewels that have genuine heritage value and are, in fact, priceless.”
The ceiling of the Apollo Gallery in the Louvre. Pic: Shutterstock
The interior ministry said the criminals fled on two motorbikes. No injuries have been reported.
The number of robbers has not been confirmed but Mr Nunez told France Inter that three or four thieves got into the museum.
The gang was well prepared and had scouted the venue, Mr Nunez said, adding they cut window panes “with a disc cutter” before escaping “on a TMAX”, a type of Yamaha maxi-scooter.
Forensic work is now under way and a detailed list of the stolen items is being compiled following the break-in, which took place between 9.30 and 9.40am (8.30-8.40am UK time).
Once in, they made for the Galerie d’Apollon (Apollo Gallery), home to a selection of the French Crown Jewels, the interior ministry said.
French daily newspaper Le Parisien, citing police, said the suspects wore hoods and were carrying “small chainsaws”.
The robbers reportedly escaped with nine pieces of jewellery, including a necklace, a brooch and a tiara from the Napoleon and French Sovereigns display cases, the newspaper reported.
Two suspects were inside while a third stayed outside, Le Parisien said.
Suspects reportedly used this window to get in. Pic: Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron said in a post on X: “We will recover the works and the perpetrators will be brought to justice.
“Everything is being done, everywhere, to achieve this,” he added.
What is in the Galerie d’Appollon?
The Galerie d’Appollon is an enormous room on the upper floor of the Petite Galerie, which houses the French Crown Jewels as well as the royal collection of hardstone vessels, paintings, tapestries and medallions, the museum’s website said.
Rebuilt by Louis XIV after a fire, it is home to three historical diamonds – the Regent, one of the most famous diamonds in the world, the Sancy and the Hortensia.
At 140 carats, the Regent is exceptional in terms of size, weight and purity and when it was found in India in 1698, it was the largest known diamond at the time.
Social media users posted pictures and videos from in and outside the building, with one showing people leaving in “total panic”.
The museum sits next to the River Seine. Pic: Reuters
One person on X who said they were there reported a confused-sounding scene of police “running” near the museum’s famous pyramid “and trying to enter… from glass side doors but they were locked and they could not enter”.
“Everyone inside was running and banging on glass doors to get out, but could not open. Police and military police arrived,” they added.
History of Louvre break-ins
This is not the first time thieves have targeted the museum.
In 1911, the Mona Lisa, now protected by bulletproof glass, vanished from its frame, stolen by a former worker who hid inside the museum and walked out with the painting under his coat.
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It was recovered two years later in Florence – an episode that helped make Leonardo da Vinci’s portrait the world’s best-known artwork.
In 1983, two Renaissance-era pieces of armour were stolen – and were only recovered in 2021, nearly four decades later.
The museum’s collection also bears the legacy of Napoleonic-era looting, containing 33,000 works of art, including antiquities, sculptures and paintings.
In addition to the Mona Lisa, its star attractions feature the Venus de Milo and the Winged Victory of Samothrace.
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