Northern Ireland Protocol: Rishi Sunak has so far kept his Brexit talks trump card under wraps – this is what could be in the deal and why it could face trouble ahead
Enemies are circling, Brexiteers are already pronouncing it dead, and the DUP are warning it undermines the Union.
But as opponents line up to try and assassinate Rishi Sunak’s forthcoming deal with Brussels to rework Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit future, Sky News can reveal that Number 10 is yet to play its trump card.
Despite weeks of headlines and column inches about the talks, Downing Street has so far kept under wraps what some believe is perhaps the biggest negotiation win.
Far from giving ground to the EU, they think they have turned the tables and forced a concession.
In short, Westminster will set VAT rates, taxation and state aid policy in Northern Ireland, not Brussels.
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Mr Sunak has made addressing the disparity over VAT a priority ever since his last budget as chancellor, when Northern Ireland could not benefit from his decision to slash the tax on solar panels and other energy efficient purchases elsewhere in the UK because it must follow EU single market rules.
Downing Street is unwilling to reveal any change is coming publicly, insisting that “intensive” negotiations are still under way, giving them nothing yet to announce.
However, Sky News understands that the concession by Brussels is likely to feature at the heart of the reform package.
DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson
Some MPs have been alerted to the likely inclusion of this change, it is welcomed privately by senior DUP figures, and it is understood to be one of the three major changes at the heart of the Sunak deal with Brussels. The DUP’s only reservation is that they want to see the legal text to check the concession is as described.
It is not clear, however, whether it will be enough.
After months of official negotiations, what some see as basic errors – and an information vacuum – may have allowed too much of a head of steam to build up behind the opposition.
As a result, it is now unclear whether the changes hammered out with Brussels since December will ever be implemented.
Mr Sunak is facing splits amongst key allies over how and whether to proceed, with warnings that he’s not strong enough to face down his party and growing anxiety in Brussels that the first prime minister they have trusted since Brexit may be about to let them down.
The next few days could end up being the most consequential of his premiership.
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‘Collapse of Good Friday Agreement absolute catastrophe’
What is in the forthcoming deal?
The patchwork of measures and agreements to change the Northern Ireland Protocol have been prepared in utmost secrecy.
Taken together, those involved say it required the EU to change its negotiating mandate and agree to alter the text of the Protocol – something Brussels said was not possible during the premierships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
Under the Sunak proposals, three key changes to that arrangement are likely to be agreed.
The first has been well trailed: businesses that have signed up to a “trusted trader scheme” will be allowed to avoid all checks when moving goods from the GB mainland to Northern Ireland.
In exchange, the EU will be able to access “real-time” UK data on trade flows across the Irish Sea. The handful of companies who are not signed up to the trusted trader scheme would have to continue labelling and filling in paperwork as at present.
The second – known as the “Stormont Lock”, first mentioned in The Sunday Times – is designed to go some way towards addressing concerns that Northern Ireland will remain subject to EU single market rules under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice as the price of avoiding border checks between the North and the Republic.
Read more:
What are the DUP’s seven tests for changes to the NI Protocol?
Rishi Sunak leaves the Culloden Hotel in Belfast, after holding talks with Stormont leaders last week
It is very complicated, but essentially it will give Northern Ireland some of the rights also enjoyed by Norway – which is also out of the EU but in the single market, so it has a say on the rules being imposed by Brussels.
Under the terms of the proposed deal, the EU will have to give the UK notice of future EU regulations intended for Northern Ireland. The Joint Ministerial Committee will then be able to lodge an objection, which may then result in the EU voluntarily choosing to disapply the regulation in Northern Ireland.
Alternatively, the Speaker of the Stormont Assembly could put the issue to a vote, which could delay when the forthcoming regulation comes into force. If the EU decides to take legal action because of a failure to implement the rule, then a Northern Ireland court would have to rule on the issue first, resulting in further delays.
This movement is likely to be welcomed by some. But this is arguably the biggest area of compromise for Brexiteers and unionists, since it does not give the outright veto on future EU regulations, which is something the DUP want.
The third change is the one revealed at the start of this article: that control of the so-called level playing field of measures, like VAT rates and state subsidy policy, will revert to Westminster. For constitutionalists, this will be seen as an important change.
Almost complete for some time, according to sources, none of this package has been formally briefed to the parties or the public.
Number 10 insists that negotiations are live, but other government sources suggest there is almost no activity still going on, and the principles of the agreement are settled even if there is some haggling on wording still to do.
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PM ‘won’t sell anyone out’
How the deal was done
Mr Sunak came into office wanting to establish a reputation for sorting out problems, particularly the poor relations with the EU and – to a lesser extent the US – over Brexit.
The PM wanted to ensure President Biden turns up in Northern Ireland for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement this Easter, meaning he needed to do a deal to ensure the Stormont Assembly was back up and running by then.
For this to happen, the PM needed the DUP to agree to a deal on the Protocol, and then go back into powersharing with Sinn Fein in order to form a government.
So, one key objective throughout these negotiations has been for Mr Sunak to get the hardline unionists on board. It was always a tall order, but it was one he chose to attempt. But it is on precisely this issue that Number 10 took an extraordinary – and some think reckless – gamble.
Despite needing the DUP onside, they decided not to talk to them personally. They decided that they did not want them involved in any way in the negotiations or feeding in thoughts, fearing this would make the talks unmanageable, so they were shut out.
Senior DUP sources tell me there were “no backchannels” to try and scope out what they needed, which they said was a contrast even from the Theresa May era.
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Sunak and Starmer clash over Protocol
Instead, the UK negotiating team were told to look up the DUP’s seven tests for a Northern Ireland Protocol replacement – which feature prominently on their website and in speeches by leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson – and find a solution to each one. One insider described it as the “spreadsheet approach” to the issue.
“We assumed that if you solve the problems in the seven tests, the DUP would be on board. That was certainly the presumption all the way along,” said one government source.
Then in an extraordinary moment three weeks ago, government sources started briefing the newspapers that the deal had successfully answered every one of the DUP’s tests, but without offering an explanation of how or why.
This entire approach flabbergasted the DUP. The tests were drawn up 18 months ago, in another political environment. They range from the broad – number four is “Giving NI people a say in their laws” – to the specific, such as number five, which states “No checks on goods between GB/NI”.
Read more:
What do we know about the deal being discussed by the UK and EU?
They were devised after conversations with the Johnson government, and were not designed to have a binary answer. Whether the tests were met was to be judged by the DUP alone.
Yet now the government was briefing journalists that the DUP’s concerns had been soothed, and their objections dealt with, without even telling them how.
“These tests weren’t designed to be used in that way”, said one senior DUP member. “If we’d known they were going to assume this level of importance we would have rewritten them and sharpened them”, they said.
Meanwhile, the DUP baulking at the tests has caused huge anger in government. Privately, some accuse the party of game playing and moving the goal posts. The DUP retort that if the goal was to get them on side, they should have opened a dialogue with them in person.
This move worsened the politics, although both sides also acknowledge that however badly Number 10 may have handled this, there was perhaps no deal ever to be made that satisfied both the DUP and the EU.
The trouble is, Downing Street only now appears to be grappling with this outcome afresh, with Brexiteers rowing in behind the DUP to make clear they are going to oppose the deal outlined.
So what next?
It is unclear how the prime minister will proceed. He has three options: press ahead, fully renegotiate or abandon his plan.
If he presses forward in the face of DUP and ERG opposition, he could face trench warfare in the Commons, whether or not any deal is put to a vote.
Mr Sunak would try to become the first Tory PM since 2010 to take on the Eurosceptics and not lose – as David Cameron did ultimately in 2016, then Theresa May did in 2019.
Alternatively, Mr Sunak could fully resume the negotiations, which despite the rhetoric, are mostly on pause at the moment.
However, the EU is unlikely to give more, and cannot bow to the DUP demand that Northern Ireland is no longer bound by future EU rules – for fear of destabilising member states and Norway, which is also in the single market but not the EU.
Or Mr Sunak could abandon the reforms, which would make clear the limits of his power and raise questions about whether he was running a “zombie” regime locked in coalition with truculent and weary Tory MPs.
If he does not do a deal, he will also have to decide whether to press ahead with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would give the UK government unilateral power to rip up the Northern Ireland section of the original Brexit treaty.
Rishi Sunak speaks during PMQs
Sky News understands that this is facing 90 amendments in the House of Lords, meaning that it is all but impossible to get through without resorting to the Parliament Act – the legislative nuclear option to override a veto by peers.
It is understood the PM is arguing against this in sessions with MPs, suggesting that a bitter parliamentary fight over the passage of the bill would reduce leverage with the EU rather than increase it as the ERG claim.
Mr Sunak has no easy options.
Once he is done with this, the next fight will be over legislation on migration, which some Tories believe will fail unless it goes further than is permitted by the European Convention on Human Rights – something that would enrage the EU all over again. The parade of Tory MPs raising this issue today in PMQs alone made clear the scale of the fight on that.
Meanwhile, within weeks, the privileges committee inquiry into whether former PM Boris Johnson lied at the despatch box will begin, with televised hearings raking over the wounds of one of the most painful episodes of recent Tory history.
The prime minister may have calmed things down, but there are toxic challenges ahead. Can he prove he’s not running a lame duck administration, or will it get worse?
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The presumption in Westminster is the next general election will take place in the back half of next year.
But it only takes 37 Tory MPs to defy the PM and vote in a confidence vote alongside the opposition to trigger an election. Could things get that heated?
It is one of the most notorious and secret places in Iran.
Somewhere foreign journalists are never allowed to visit or film. The prison where dissidents and critics of Iran’s government disappear – some never to be seen again.
But we went there today, invited by Iranian authorities eager to show the damage done there by Israel.
Evin Prison was hit by Israeli airstrikes the day before a ceasefire ended a 12-day war with Iran. The damage is much greater than thought at the time.
We walked through what’s left of its gates, now a mass of rubble and twisted metal, among just a handful of foreign news media allowed in.
A few hundred yards in, we were shown a building Iranians say was the prison’s hospital.
Behind iron bars, every one of the building’s windows had been blown in. Medical equipment and hospital beds had been ripped apart and shredded.
Debris scattered across what Iran says was the prison hospital
It felt eerie being somewhere normally shut off to the outside world.
On the hill above us, untouched by the airstrikes, the buildings where inmates are incarcerated in reportedly horrific conditions, ominous watch towers silhouetted against the sky.
Evin felt rundown and neglected. There was something ineffably sad and oppressive about the atmosphere as we wandered through the compound.
The Iranians had their reasons to bring us here. The authorities say at least 71 people were killed in the air strikes, some of them inmates, but also visiting family members.
Authorities say this building was the visitor centre
Iran says this is evidence that Israel was not just targeting military or nuclear sites but civilian locations too.
But the press visit highlighted the prison’s notoriety too.
Iran’s critics and human rights groups say Evin is synonymous with the brutal oppression of political prisoners and opponents, and its practice of hostage diplomacy too.
British dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe were held here for years before being released in 2022 in exchange for concessions from the UK.
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Inmates are held in building on a hill above, which has been untouched by airstrikes
Interviewed about the Israeli airstrikes at the time, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe showed only characteristic empathy with her former fellow inmates. Trapped in their cells, she said they must have been terrified.
The Israelis have not fully explained why they put Evin on their target list, but on the same day, the Israeli military said it was “attacking regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran”.
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The locus of their strikes were the prison’s two entrances. If they were trying to enable a jailbreak, they failed. No one is reported to have escaped, several inmates are thought to have died.
The breaches the Israeli missiles made in the jail’s perimeter are being closed again quickly. We filmed as a team of masons worked to shut off the outside world again, brick by brick.
Israeli-backed American contractors guarding aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades as starving Palestinians scramble for food, an investigation has claimed.
The Associated Press has reported the accounts by two contractors from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), although the organisation has strongly denied the allegations, describing them as “categorically false”.
GHF was established in February to deliver desperately needed aid to people in the besieged enclave, but its work has been heavily criticised by international aid groups.
It has also been subject to intense scrutiny about its operations, which Sky News previously reported are associated with a significant increase in deaths.
AP’s claims, which have not been independently verified by Sky News, came from GHF contractors who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were revealing their employer’s internal operations.
Palestinians are shown scrambling for aid in the footage provided to AP. Pic: AP
They said they were motivated to speak out as they were disturbed by what they considered dangerous practices by security staff who were often heavily armed.
AP reported the contractors had claimed “their colleagues regularly lobbed stun grenades and pepper spray in the direction of the Palestinians” and “bullets were fired in all directions – in the air, into the ground and at times toward the Palestinians, recalling at least one instance where he thought someone had been hit”.
Contractor: ‘Innocent people being hurt’
“There are innocent people being hurt. Badly. Needlessly,” the contractor told AP.
Videos reportedly provided by one contractor show aid sites, located in Israeli military-controlled zones, with hundreds of Palestinians crammed between metal gates, scrambling to reach aid.
In the background, gunfire can be heard, and stun grenades are allegedly fired into crowds.
Footage provided to the AP news agency allegedly shows tear gas being fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
The footage does not show who was shooting or what was being shot at, but another video shows contractors in a compound, when bursts of gunfire can be heard. One man is then heard shouting in celebration: “Whoo! Whoo!”.
“I think you hit one,” another says, followed by the comment: “Hell, yeah, boy!”
The contractor who took the video told AP that colleagues were shooting in the direction of Palestinians.
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According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and witnesses, several hundred people have been killed and hundreds more wounded since the GHF sites started operating more than a month ago, amid claims by Palestinians of Israeli troops opening fire almost every day at crowds seeking to reach the aid.
In response, Israel’s military says it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm. It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
Bursts of gunfire can be heard in the footage as Palestinians run towards aid being distributed. Pic: AP
GHF attacks ‘false claims’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it has investigated AP’s allegations.
In a statement on X, GHF wrote: “Based on time-stamped video footage and sworn witness statements, we have concluded that the claims in the AP’s story are categorically false. At no point were civilians under fire at a GHF distribution site.
“The gunfire heard in the video was confirmed to have originated from the IDF, who was outside the immediate vicinity of the GHF distribution site.
“It was not directed at individuals, and no one was shot or injured. What is most troubling is that the AP refused to share the full video with us prior to publication, despite the seriousness of the allegations.”
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Safe Reach Solutions, the logistics company subcontracted by GHF, told the AP there have been no serious injuries at any of their sites to date.
But the organisation admitted that, in isolated incidents, security professionals fired live rounds into the ground and away from civilians to get their attention.
A Safe Reach Solutions spokesperson told AP this happened at the start of their operations at “the height of desperation where crowd control measures were necessary for the safety and security of civilians”.
Liverpool star Diogo Jota has died in a car crash.
The 28-year-old Portuguese forward died in the accident in the early hours of Thursday morning near Zamora, in northwestern Spain.
His brother, Andre Silva, was also killed in the crash on the Rias Bajas Highway (A-52) near Palacios de Sanabria, heading towards Benavente.
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Jota’s former teammate: ‘This can’t be real’
The site of the accident on the A52
Follow the latest updates following Diogo Jota’s death
Jota and Silva were driving to Santander to catch a ferry back to England ahead of the start of Liverpool’s pre-season training on Monday, CNN Portugal reports.
The news outlet reports that Jota was advised against flying back to England due to recent surgery.
Police said the accident happened at 12.30am when the Lamborghini the pair were travelling in veered off the road.
Palacios de Sanabria in the north of Spain
“A vehicle left the road and everything indicates a tyre burst while overtaking,” the Guardia Civil in Zamora told Sky Sports News in a statement.
“As a result of the accident, the car caught fire and both people were killed. Pending the completion of forensic tests, one of the deceased has been identified as Diogo Jota, a Liverpool FC player, and his brother, Andre Felipe.”
A Spanish government source told the PA news agency that police were investigating the crash as “a possible speeding incident”.
The aftermath of the crash. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
Police added that no other vehicles were involved in the incident.
Pictures of the aftermath of the crash showed debris scattered along the side of the road, including what appeared to be charred parts of the vehicle.
It comes just 10 days after the player married his long-term girlfriend, Rute Cardoso.
Diogo Jota holds the Premier League trophy aloft after the club’s title win in the 2024/25 season. Pic: Reuters
Diogo Jota walks the pitch with his family in 2022.
Pic: PA
He had three children.
The footballer, who played as a striker for Liverpool, began his career in his native Portugal and played at Atletico Madrid in Spain before moving to England.
He joined the Merseyside club from Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2020.
Former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp with Diogo Jota. Pic: PA
Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and Diogo Jota (right) during a training session. Pic: PA
Jota played an important role throughout his five years with the Reds, including scoring six times in Liverpool’s recent Premier League-winning season.
He scored a total of 47 times in 123 matches for the club. He also played 49 times for the Portugal national side, scoring 14 times.
Silva, 25, played for Penafiel, a Portuguese second division club.
Diogo Jota holding the trophy on the team bus during the Premier League winners parade in Liverpool. Pic: PA
Teammates and football legends pay tribute
A statement issued by Liverpool FC said the club was “devastated” by their player’s death.
“The club have been informed the 28-year-old has passed away following a road traffic accident in Spain along with his brother, Andre,” the club said in a statement.
“Liverpool FC will be making no further comment at this time and request the privacy of Diogo and Andre’s family, friends, teammates and club staff is respected as they try to come to terms with an unimaginable loss.
“We will continue to provide them with our full support.”
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Sky’s Greg Milam reports from Anfield Stadium where Liverpool fans are hearing about the death of Diogo Jota.
The Portuguese football federation said it was “utterly devastated by the deaths”.
“Far beyond being an exceptional player, with nearly 50 caps for the national team, Diogo Jota was an extraordinary person, respected by all teammates and opponents, someone with a contagious joy and a reference within his own community.
“We have lost two champions. The passing of Diogo and Andre Silva represents irreparable losses for Portuguese Football, and we will do everything to honour their legacy daily.”
The Portugal and Spain women’s teams held a minute’s silence for Jota and Silva before their match in the Women’s Euros in Switzerland on Thursday evening.
Floral tributes left at Anfield this morning. Pic: Sky
It came after Liverpool’s manager Arne Slot said in a statement: “What can anyone say at a time like this when the shock and the pain is so incredibly raw? I wish I had the words but I know I do not.
“All I have are feelings that I know so many people will share about a person and a player we loved dearly and a family we care so much about.
“My first thoughts are not those of a football manager. They are of a father, a son, a brother and an uncle and they belong to the family of Diogo and Andre Silva who have experienced such an unimaginable loss.”
Jota’s former manager at Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp, offered his thoughts in a post on Instagram.
“This is a moment where I struggle! There must be a bigger purpose, but I can’t see it,” he said.
“I’m heartbroken to hear about the passing of Diogo and his brother Andre. Diogo was not only a fantastic player, but also a great friend, a loving and caring husband and father.
“We will miss you so much. All my prayers, thoughts and power to Rute, the kids, the family, the friends and everyone who loved them.”
Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk posted on Instagram: “What a human being, what a player, but most importantly what an unbelievable family man.
“You mean so much to all of us and you always will!”
Cristiano Ronaldo, Jota’s captain in the national team, said: “It doesn’t make sense. Just now we were together in the National Team, just now you had gotten married.
“To your family, your wife, and your children, I send my condolences and wish them all the strength in the world.
“I know you will always be with them. Rest in Peace, Diogo and Andre. We will all miss you.”
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Diogo Jota married his long-term girlfriend just two weeks ago
Jota’s Liverpool teammates Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai have also paid tribute.
Szoboszlai wrote: “Words cannot describe how heartbroken and devastated we are… Your smile, your love for the game will never be forgotten.
“We will miss you so much, but you will stay with us forever, on and off the pitch.”
Jota’s former teammates Trent Alexander-Arnold, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Thiago Alcantara have also shared messages on social media.
Mane posted a picture of himself and Jota with heartbreak emojis.
It came as Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish wrote on X: “You feel helpless, knowing there’s so little we can do to ease the pain for his wife of just two weeks, his three beautiful children.”
Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard shared an image of Jota on Instagram and wrote: “Condolences to his family and friends during this incredibly sad time.”
Liverpool owners Billy Hogan, John Henry and Tom Werner, who are part of the Fenway Sports Group, said: “This tragic situation and the reality of it is truly shocking, devastating and has left us numb with grief.”
Football icon Lionel Messi has also paid tribute, sharing an image of Jota on Instagram with the message “QEPD” – short for the Spanish phrase ‘que en paz descanse’, which translates to “may he rest in peace'”.
European football clubs such as Barcelona and AC Milan have also shared messages, along with basketball player LeBron James and tennis icon Rafael Nadal.
Meanwhile Liverpool FC have opened a physical and digital book of condolence for supporters and members of the public to sign.
The physical book is at the club’s stadium, in the Anfield Road Stand reception area until Sunday evening.
An avid video gamer, Jota also owned an eSports team and regularly streamed on Twitch.
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