Rivian (RIVN) Q4 and full year 2022 earnings preview: The moment of truth
Rivian (RIVN) is set to release Q4 and full year results for 2022 on Tuesday, February 28, after the market close in what is shaping up to be a significant one as the young EV maker looks to overcome recent hurdles as it ramps production.
Here’s a brief preview of what Wall St and investors expect from Rivian’s fourth quarter results.
Rivian Q4 2022 deliveries
Rivian revealed last month it had produced 10,020 electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility during Q4 2022 while delivering 8,054 during the same period.
For the full year, Rivian produced 24,337 EVs and delivered 20,332. Despite slightly missing the company’s 25,000 full-year production guidance, it’s still an impressive accomplishment, given it only produced 1,015 vehicles by the end of 2021 (delivering 920).
Rivian’s Illinois factory will be capable of producing 150,000 EVs annually when it’s fully operational (with plans to increase it to 200,000), but until then, the automaker continues to burn through cash.
Rivian profitability
On a recent analyst call, Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe said it’s been a “challenging year” as the company launched four products (two versions of the EV van, the R1T, and the R1S) while trying to scale production.
In the third quarter of 2022, Rivian’s losses widened to $1.7 billion, as the company said on its Q3 earnings call:
As we produce vehicles at low volumes on production lines designed for higher volumes, we have and will continue to experience negative gross profit related to labor, depreciation, and overhead costs.
Rivian is working to improve its capital efficiency by ramping up manufacturing capabilities. The company recently added a second shift to accelerate production.
The company has noted it has the funds ($13.3 billion cash and equivalent) necessary to continue operations until at least 2025 with a substantial long-term contract from Amazon to supply over 100,000 Rivian EDVs, slated to roll out by 2030.
Rivian Q4 and full-year 2022 earnings expectations
Analysts expect Rivian to report earnings-per-share (EPS) of $-1.94 compared to $-1.88 in the third quarter.
In addition, Rivian is forecasted to report Q4 revenue of $742 million, up from $536 million in the third quarter and only $52 million in the same period last year.
Wall Street is expecting Rivian to continue burning cash with losses to remain around the same as in Q3 with about $1.7 billion.
Rivian Q4 earnings preview: What to look for
The biggest issue Rivian is facing right now is that it’s losing money on every vehicle it produces. The company was losing as much as three times ($1.7 billion loss with just over $500 million in revenue) what it was charging per vehicle in the third quarter, and that trend is expected to continue for some time.
Scaringe says these issues are “well understood” as the company shifts its focus to reducing costs and driving volume this year, which will steer them toward positive gross margins.
As the company works to lower costs and improve operating efficiency, Rivian announced earlier this month it would be laying off 6% of its workforce.
RIVN stock is down over 70% in the past year as investors have fled for safer assets.
If the company wants to regain investor confidence, it will start by showing it has a clear path toward positive gross margins. Even if Rivian makes great EVs, if it can’t build them profitably, investors will not be interested.
Check back tomorrow for Rivian’s Q4 earnings results.
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After a month off trying to wrap our heads around all the chaos surrounding EVs, solar, and everything else in Washington, we’re back with the biggest EV news stories of the day from Tesla, Ford, Volvo, and everyone else on today’s hiatus-busting episode of Quick Charge!
It just gets worse and worse for the Tesla true believers – especially those willing to put their money where Elon’s mouth is! One believer is set to lose nearly $50,000 betting on Tesla’s ability to deliver a Robotaxi service by the end of June (didn’t happen), and the controversial CEO’s most recent spat with President Trump had TSLA down nearly 5% in pre-morning trading.
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Hyundai is getting ready to shake things up. A new electric crossover SUV, likely the Hyundai IONIQ 2, is set to debut in the coming months. It will sit below the Kona Electric as Hyundai expands its entry-level EV lineup.
Is Hyundai launching the IONIQ 2 in 2026?
After launching the Inster late last year, Hyundai is already preparing to introduce a new entry-level EV in Europe.
Xavier Martinet, President and CEO of Hyundai Europe, confirmed that the new EV will be revealed “in the next few months.” It will be built in Europe and scheduled to go on sale in mid-2026.
Hyundai’s new electric crossover is expected to be a twin to the Kia EV2, which will likely arrive just ahead of it next year.
It will be underpinned by the same E-GMP platform, which powers all IONIQ and Kia EV models (EV3, EV4, EV5, EV6, and EV9).
Like the Kia EV3, it will likely be available with either a 58.3 kWh or 81.4 kWh battery pack option. The former provides a WLTP range of 267 miles while the latter is rated with up to 372 miles. All trims are powered by a single electric motor at the front, producing 201 hp and 209 lb-ft of torque.
Although it may share the same underpinnings as the EV2, Hyundai’s new entry-level EV will feature an advanced new software and infotainment system.
According to Autocar, the interior will represent a “step change” in terms of usability and features. The new system enables new functions, such as ambient lighting and sounds that adjust depending on the drive mode.
It’s expected to showcase Hyundai’s powerful new Pleos software and infotainment system. As an end-to-end software platform, Pleos connects everything from the infotainment system (Pleos Connect) to the Vehicle Operating System (OS) and the cloud.
Pleos is set to power Hyundai’s upcoming software-defined vehicles (SDVs) with new features like autonomous driving and real-time data analysis.
As an Android-based system, Pleos Connect features a “smartphone-like UI” with new functions including multi-window viewing and an AI voice assistant.
The new electric crossover is expected to start at around €30,000 ($35,400), or slightly less than the Kia EV3, priced from €35,990 ($42,500). It will sit between the Inster and Kona Electric in Hyundai’s lineup.
Hyundai said that it would launch the first EV with its next-gen infotainment system in Q2 2026. Will it be the IONIQ 2? Hyundai is expected to unveil the new entry-level EV at IAA Mobility in September. Stay tuned for more info. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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Tesla has unveiled its lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery cell factory in Nevada and claims that it is nearly ready to start production.
Like several other automakers using LFP cells, Tesla relies heavily on Chinese manufacturers for its battery cell supply.
Tesla’s cheapest electric vehicles all utilize LFP cells, and its entire range of energy storage products, Megapacks and Powerwalls, also employ the more affordable LFP cell chemistry from Chinese manufacturers.
This reliance on Chinese manufacturers is less than ideal and particularly complicated for US automakers and battery pack manufacturers like Tesla, amid an ongoing trade war between the US and virtually the entire world, including China.
As of last year, a 25% tariff already applied to battery cells from China, but this increased to more than 80% under Trump before he paused some tariffs on China. It remains unclear where they will end up by the time negotiations are complete and the trade war is resolved, but many expect it to be higher.
Prior to Trump taking power, Tesla had already planned to build a small LFP battery factory in the US to avoid the 25% tariffs.
The automaker had secured older manufacturing equipment from one of its battery cell suppliers, CATL, and planned to deploy it in the US for small-scale production.
Tesla has now released new images of the factory in Nevada and claimed that it is “nearing completion”:
Here are a few images from inside the factory (via Tesla):
Previous reporting stated that Tesla aims to produce about 10 GWh of LFP battery cells per year at the new factory.
The cells are expected to be used in Tesla’s Megapack, produced in the US. Tesla currently has a capacity to produce 40 GWh of Megapacks annually at its factory in California. The company is also working on a new Megapack factory in Texas.
Ford is also developing its own LFP battery cell factory in Michigan, but this facility is significantly larger, with a planned production capacity of 35 GWh.
Electrek’s Take
It’s nice to see this in the US. LFP was a US/Canada invention, with Arumugam Manthiram and John B. Goodenough doing much of the early work, and researchers in Quebec making several contributions to help with commercialization.
But China saw the potential early and invested heavily in volume manufacturing of LFP cells and it now dominates the market.
Tesla is now producing most of its vehicles with LFP cells and all its stationary energy storage products.
It makes sense to invest in your own production. However, Tesla is unlikely to catch up to BYD and CATL, which dominate LFP cell production.
The move will help Tesla avoid tariffs on a small percentage of its Megapacks produced in the US. Ford’s effort is more ambitious.
It’s worth noting that both Ford’s and Tesla’s LFP plants were planned before Trump’s tariffs, which have had limited success in bringing manufacturing back to the US.
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