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MOBILE, Ala. — Former Army star Andre Carter II enters the NFL combine this week as a unicorn draft prospect. He’s poised to become the first Army player drafted higher than the seventh round in more than a half-century.

Carter is a 6-foot-6, 255-pound rush end who led the nation in sacks per game in 2021. He is nearly certain to be the highest-drafted Army player since Glenn Davis, a Heisman Trophy winner known as Mr. Outside, went No. 2 overall in 1947.

Carter’s draft path could end up being tracked all the way to Capitol Hill, as the attention his professional career yields may become the focal point of a Congressional debate later this year. In December, Congress passed a law that’s going to eventually eliminate the opportunity for military academy graduates like Carter to defer service requirements and pursue professional sports.

After the rule passed, Carter and others attempting to go pro both this year and next got legacied into the old rule, enacted in 2019, that allows deferment. That leaves officials at Army, Navy and Air Force worried that athletes like Carter with high-end potential will not attend the academies or will transfer out early in their careers.

“Why do we want to repel people who want to serve?” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun told ESPN. “They want an opportunity in that short, short window that’s available to make the most of their gifts and talents. Well, let’s be forward thinking here. If not, then we don’t attract the best, because we’re putting up roadblocks.”

For the road to be clear, it will likely take an act of Congress. Representative Adam Smith, a Democrat from the state of Washington, is the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee. He told ESPN he hasn’t decided whether he’ll attempt to bring forward a proposed law to try to change the rule back to the 2019 version.

Smith said it’s not the obligation of Congress to help the service academies in recruiting so they can win games on the field. But he was compelled by the argument that the rare players who do make it professionally from the academies offer priceless free advertising. (He credits both Ryan McCarthy, the former US Secretary of the Army, and General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for stressing this point to him.)

“The pertinent argument is … this actually helps the service academy mission,” Smith told ESPN. “It’s not to win football games. It’s to recruit, train and retain the best America has to offer. You can argue, you get an Andre Carter, David Robinson or Napoleon McCallum, a top-flight athlete brings attention to the service academy and it’s easier to recruit for the academies and enables the military academy to fulfill its mission.”

The attention for Carter is growing quickly. His story has created some buzz, and while there some ambiguity of how high he’ll go, he should be chosen somewhere in the draft’s first two days, which encompasses the first three rounds.

Regardless, after each Senior Bowl practice, a cocoon of media formed around Carter, who gladly told the story of early wake-up calls, rigorous academics and responsibilities of being a cadet.

“Definitely, the USMA has just provided me with so much,” Carter told ESPN. “Just the way I want to live my life. And I’ve learned so much and I’ve met so many great people. It’s something I’m going to take with me the rest of my life. I’m just truly grateful and appreciative.”

Carter was just the second Army player to ever play in the Senior Bowl, following the Eagles’ Brett Toth in 2018. But the chance to go through the draft process this year was in peril, after the law was tucked into Section 553 of the National Defense Authorization Act. It says that pursuit of a professional sport immediately after graduation would be viewed as a “breach of service obligation.”

An outcry over Carter’s future led to the tweak nearly a week later, essentially legacying academy upperclassmen. As his story bubbled to the service, it illuminated how important both the publicity from his rise as a draft prospect and the ability to pitch athletes on having pro sports as an option is for the academies.

“It’s a significant difference in recruiting in the fact that schools couldn’t immediately use it against us,” said Jeff Monken, Army’s coach since 2014. “A lot of kids have aspirations to play in the NFL and don’t want to wait [after two years of service], and coaches from other schools tell them they will. It’s an eliminator for us, as sometimes we can’t even get in the conversation.”

Army athletic director Mike Buddie told ESPN that, in reality, few players will really use the deferment. He estimated there would be a handful of players every decade from Army and perhaps a dozen per decade overall from the three academies combined who are good enough to reach NFL.

“For us, it’s all about opportunity,” Buddie said. “Obviously, we’re not getting many commits from four- and five-star kids. But if a young person comes to the academy and shows a proclivity in medicine, we reward them and send them to medical school. If they earn a Rhodes scholarship, we send them to Oxford. To me, this is an extension of that.”

McCarthy, the former Secretary of the U.S. Army, was part of the process for the Department of Defense passing the guidance in 2019 allowing the potential deferment for academy athletes. McCarthy went so far as to reach out to NFL general managers interested in prospects from Army such as Toth (Eagles), Jon Rhattigan (Seahawks) and Elijah Riley (Steelers) to let the GMs know that the academies were serious about the rule change.

“I wanted them to know that the institution was behind it,” McCarthy told ESPN. “This isn’t a gimmick or going to go away. We’re behind these young men. Before this whole issue arose last fall, we were finally at a point where teams were going to draft guys. It was real and teams were going to be behind it.”

McCarthy expressed his disappointment in the law passed in December and agrees with Smith and the academy coaches and officials on the power of the marketing opportunity.

“Every Sunday that Andre Carter puts his uniform on, it’s going to be noticed and mentioned,” McCarthy said. “And every time the service academy football coaches visit a high school kid in America, they should be able to see that opportunity is there for them if they can achieve the results on the football field.

“It’s very rare. It’s extraordinary to make the NFL. I think this is something that can be managed. It’s such a small number, it’s almost insignificant.”

There’s a feeling at the academies that the limitations in recruiting by kids crossing the academies off the list will end up, down the line, limiting the caliber of officers that the academies can recruit and produce. The government isn’t focused on the ability to compete on the field, but the coaches say that they could end up limiting the potential officer talent coming through the academies.

“Why not let these young men and women shine a light on military service?” said first-year Navy coach Brian Newberry. “It’s a win-win. The transfer portal and NIL have already put the service academies at a disadvantage, and taking away this opportunity puts all three Academies at even more of a disadvantage in recruiting some of the best student-athletes in the country.”

Air Force’s lone NFL Combine participant this year is Kyle Patterson, a star tight end who is one of Calhoun’s most decorated recruits in his 16 seasons there. Patterson had offers from UCLA, Washington and Arizona, but Calhoun said Patterson committed to Air Force for the chance to be both an officer and an NFL player.

Calhoun said Patterson likely wouldn’t have committed to Air Force if the rule wasn’t being discussed back in 2019. And if it hadn’t passed, he could have transferred out after two years and played nearly anywhere in the country.

“To bring in top level talent to the academy and football program, the pro option is a very important linchpin,” said Nathan Pine, the Air Force athletic director. “Whether they make it or not, most elite athletes believe they can. Having that door open to them is very important to the academies.”

And that door is ultimately going to be up to Congress. Smith told ESPN that he “hasn’t really decided” if he’s going to bring something forward this year. He points out there’s “a lot going on in the world.”

The law that passed in December was introduced by Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican, whose belief is based on a premise he’s stated previously: “U.S. military service academies exist to produce warfighters, not professional athletes.”

But McCarthy expressed his disappointment in the law passed in December and agrees with Rep. Smith and the academy coaches and officials on the power of the marketing opportunity.

“Every Sunday that Andre Carter puts his uniform on, it’s going to be noticed and mentioned,” he said. “And every time the service academy football coaches visit a high school kid in America, they should be able to see that opportunity is there for them if they can achieve the results on the football field.”

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Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It’s not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be

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Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It's not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be

The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.

This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”

No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.

If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.

So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.

That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.

It’s a sign that it is.

A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.

At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.

It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.

Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.

Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.

College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.

Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).

The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.

The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.

Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.

If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.

Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.

The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.

Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).

Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.

Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.

Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.

The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.

A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.

Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.

Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.

Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.

Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.

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The NHL’s best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams

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The NHL's best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams

Terry Ryan is living out a hockey player’s dream. It’s just not the exact one he grew up dreaming.

One of the stars of the hit show “Shoresy,” the hockey-centered comedy that has acted as equal parts love letter to the sport and cultural tastemaker, Ryan will join his castmates (all of whom are also hockey players achieving various levels of success) on Dec. 10 at UBS Arena on Long Island as part of the Shoresy Fall Classic, a multistop tour across Canada and the United States where the cast plays games typically against the alumni of that NHL team.

“Aaron Asham is one of my best friends in the world. I played junior and pro with him,” Ryan said of the retired 15-year NHL veteran who played four seasons with the New York Islanders. “So I’m looking forward to that.”

The pace of play is higher than most people think heading in, the 48-year-old noted, adding “we’re not out there trying to hurt each other or anything, but it’s a step up from a regular shinny game.”

“It’s a very unique experience. I don’t know if I’ve ever come across anything like it whereby the fans are cheering for both teams,” he said. “Even though we lose — we’ve been losing most of the games — we’re not getting blown out, and I think people walk away with an appreciation that, you know, we’re all actors in the show, but we’re all hockey players. We’re a pretty good team. We hang in there.”

The event, which also includes a Q&A with the cast, was sparked by the massive popularity of the show, which will release its fifth season in Canada on Christmas Day and on Hulu in early 2026 (its parent show, “Letterkenny,” wrapped up with 12 seasons and 81 episodes).

As for Ryan, he was the No. 8 pick in the 1995 draft of the Montreal Canadiens, and achieved his dream of playing in the NHL — but played only eight games with the Habs. He then spent six seasons with different AHL teams after an ankle injury brought his NHL dreams to a halt.

The Newfoundland native continued to play in various leagues while pursuing another career — film and television. But not as an actor.

“I got an arts degree in folklore and English, and within that there’s a film studies certificate. I worked on a crew, I mean like location [scouting], production assistant, AD. I was like ‘jump how high’ for six years,” he said. “Then I spilled over, I did some stunts, and then because I have no tooth, I got to play some parts like, you know, British soldiers, crackheads, pimps, drug dealers, stuff like that. … My entrance into this world was a lot different than the other guys [on the Shoresy cast].”

Eventually, Ryan did cross paths with one Hollywood star, who took him under his wing.

“There’s a show on Netflix called ‘Frontier.’ I was on crew, I was waiting to get in the union. I met Jason Momoa. He came along with [producers] and gave me a chance,” Ryan said. “I had no tooth, Momoa said, ‘Keep the tooth out. I can get you some stunt gigs.’

“Five seconds into the show, I’m the very first face you see. It’s a British soldier begging for his life, and I’ve got no tooth obviously … they got me that role. That’s how I got in.”

Ryan and Momoa also shared a love for hockey. Ryan taught Momoa and members of the crew how to skate (in Momoa’s case, the finer points).

“I don’t know how many times we went out on the ice, maybe 100 times,” Ryan recalled.

Ryan also taught Momoa the intricacies of a hockey fight.

“When we first [fought], I just shook him and beat him in a fight,” Ryan said. “I said, ‘It’s all about balance, man. You can be as big as you want.’

“Anyway, he laughed … trust me, if he hit me with one, it wouldn’t matter. [Momoa] wanted to get in a hockey fight [in the second season of ‘Frontier’], so, like, I’m [wearing] the British red coat, and he pulls the thing over, and he simulates a hockey fight.”

Momoa helped Ryan get several stunt gigs and even hired Ryan as his assistant for a period of time. Eventually, “Letterkenny” called with the role of Ted Hitchcock, a lovable hockey player from Newfoundland with a penchant for “martoonies,” which led to “Shoresy.”

And now, the show and cast enjoy a level of success that allows them to play in hockey games against NHL players across North America, with thousands of people cheering them from the stands. In a very circuitous way, a version of Ryan’s hockey dreams did come true.

Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps

Biggest games of the week

I’m getting into “watch every Colorado Avalanche game” territory. I saw them live for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and it was incredibly fun. Nathan MacKinnon had a pair of goals, including a nasty backhand overtime winner under the crossbar that he made look absolutely effortless.

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1:08

Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winner

Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.

We’ve been focusing a lot on the lack of regulation losses for Denver’s team — only two so far this season. But we can now start keeping an eye on points in general, because the Avs are are currently on pace for 58 wins and 134 points this season.

That would be second-most points by any team in a season in NHL history, behind the 2022-23 Bruins (135).

If things keep rolling, the Avalanche have a chance to make history. They have build a solid foundation for it. They have the players. Could they do it?

Weeks in mid-December can sort of fly under the radar in the course of the regular season, but these are the ones where teams chasing history work in the shadows and build. The Avs visit the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, host the Florida Panthers on Thursday and then have the Preds at home Saturday. It could be a three-win week for the NHL’s premier team.


Other key games this week

Monday, 9 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Sunday, 6 p.m. | ESPN+


What I loved this weekend

The Athletic’s Murat Ates wrote a story about the mental health journey of Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi. The story, which includes raw and honest reflection from Vilardi, is equal parts fascinating and emotional. This quote from Vilardi was particularly humbling and something that certainly many athletes probably go through during a game:

“For me, negative self-talk is not just panic attacks; it’s something that I deal with a lot. And it drags on. It starts with one play. Then it’s like, ‘Oh s—, I’ve got to make up for that play.’ Then it drags on to three shifts because you’re still thinking in your head that you’ve got to make up for it. Next thing you know, it’s a period and it’s like, ‘F—, I’ve only got two periods left.’ I was in my head the whole first period.”

Sports psychologist Dr. Alicia Naser — who works with NHL players such as Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright and Calgary Flames center John Beecher along with other professional athletes — has helped to normalize the discussions, particular through her social media content, which includes bite-sized wisdom and actionable items related to mental health and performance that can benefit anyone watching or reading.


Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today

Nathan MacKinnon times three. That’s it.

But really, MacKinnon obviously remains on the list. He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 140 points this season; if he reaches those totals, he’d be the fifth player in NHL history to do it, joining Wayne Gretzky (who did it four times), Mario Lemieux (twice), Bernie Nicholls (1988-89) and Phil Esposito (1970-71). MacKinnon would also have the first 70-goal season since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93 (both with 76 goals).

As for the second contender, that goes to Connor McDavid. He pulled into second place in the points race, now six back of MacKinnon with 42; he also leads the league in assists (28).

Indeed, this might be the week it becomes a two-player race. For that reason, I’m giving one more nod in this section to both Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, because one (or both) might be unseated as early as next week. I kind of hope I’m wrong though.


Social media post of the week

It definitely isn’t the 6-7 cam at MSG, or Sam Bennett taking part in the trend.

My choice this week is new hockey fan Big Z on TikTok. It feels as if every few years someone goes viral (at least in the hockey bubble) for finding out how exciting hockey is. It’s fun to live vicariously through someone who is experiencing the same joy we all once did as hockey fans.

Big Z’s joy over seeing Alex Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien deliver checks, or lamenting a Red Wings shootout loss (but still saying that he needs to buy a jersey), is fantastic.


Stick taps

The Washington Capitals have partnered with WWE to release a limited edition collab for John Cena’s final WWE match before he retires, taking place Saturday. The shirt features Cena wearing a Caps hat holding a towel in his iconic pose that reads “Let’s Go Caps.”

I’m all for more partnerships like this. City-specific merchandise is on the rise and often becomes a collector’s item. WWE also has championship belts specific to teams across multiple sports, including the NHL.

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What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

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What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber's suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.

What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?

Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.


Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?

Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.

The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.

Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.


Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?

Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).

This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.

Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.

What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.


Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?

Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.

Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.


Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?

Olney: It depends on your definition of “big name.” Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend, new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.

If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.

Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.


Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?

Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.

Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.


Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?

Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.

Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.

Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.

Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.


Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?

Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.

Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.


What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?

Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.

There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.

Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Munetaka Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.

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