If you spent part of the 2022 college football season thinking, “USC can’t possibly keep getting away with this!!” then you should know this: Your hunches were as statistically sound as they were exasperated.
For much of last fall, the Trojans’ defense was good at one and only one thing: pouncing on the football just in the nick of time. They lacked in just about every other department — they were 93rd in scoring defense (29.2 points per game), 106th in total defense (423.9 yards per game) and a ghastly 124th in yards allowed per play (6.5!) — but they forced 28 turnovers, sixth-most in the FBS.
Every football coach in existence preaches the importance of turnovers and turnover margin. But while you can impact your own turnover margin to some degree with how well you teach ball security and ball pursuit, how aggressively you go after the opponent’s quarterback, how aggressive your own offense is, et cetera, there’s still a massive amount of fortune involved here. And USC’s fortune meter was turned all the way up.
In the first five USC games of 2022, there were nine fumbles, and the Trojans recovered all nine. Fumble recoveries revert to 50% over a long enough period of time, but USC got to an 11-1 record by having recovered 18 of 23 (78%). While a team typically intercepts about one pass to every four pass breakups, their regular-season ratio was 1-to-1.9, and their interceptions total was seven higher than national averages would suggest.
The INT ratio regressed to the mean late in the season, and the fumble recoveries will probably do the same soon enough. Luck and randomness play a massive role in the game of football — especially the version played by 18- to 22-year-olds — and as we slowly gear up for 2023, let’s take a look at who benefited the most from the bounce of the ol’ pointy football.
Fumble recovery rates
Indeed, over a large enough period of time, a team will recover about 50% of all fumbles. There’s a slight correlation between where a fumble occurs and which team is more likely to recover — the further downfield it is, the more likely a defender will pounce on it (primarily because there are usually more defenders in the near vicinity) — but even then the fates don’t change a ton. By simply looking at who recovered a particularly high or low percentage of loose balls, we are learning a lot about who benefited from fortune and who will be impacted by future regression toward the mean.
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Oklahoma players and coaches gathered in different spots around Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, posing for pictures and savoring every second of the team’s best win as an SEC member and its best under fourth-year coach Brent Venables.
When the 11th-ranked Sooners finally retreated to their locker room, their victory playlist began with “Dixieland Delight,” Alabama’s cherished late-game anthem, and then, of course, “Sweet Home Alabama.” Written off in most College Football Playoff projections after its home loss to Ole Miss on Oct. 25, Oklahoma responded with consecutive road wins against Tennessee and Saturday at No. 4 Alabama, holding off the Tide 23-21.
The Sooners recorded their first road win against a top-five opponent since their victory over Ohio State in 2017, featuring another famous postgame celebration with quarterback Baker Mayfield’s flag-plant at Ohio Stadium. OU ended Alabama’s 17-game home winning streak and became the first team to beat the Tide in consecutive seasons since Ole Miss in 2014 and 2015. The Sooners also registered their fourth win against an AP-ranked opponent this season, tying Alabama for the most in the FBS.
“I’m not a boastful or braggadocious kind of guy, but, man, I’m going to brag on our guys, and they deserve it,” Venables said. “They put a lot into this opportunity, and we’ve created vision for that, so I got to follow through. I’m like, ‘Hey, man, this is what victory looks like. This is how we’re going to do it. And I want to see you guys dancing, carrying on, just having some joy in the moment.'”
Oklahoma won despite generating only 212 yards of offense, its fewest since 2022 and OU’s fewest in a win since 2001 against No. 5 Texas. The Sooners rode their defense, which forced three Alabama turnovers, half of the Tide’s season total entering Saturday, and scored on Eli Bowen‘s 87-yard interception return in the first quarter.
The defense needed one final stop as Alabama took possession with 7:14 play, needing only a field goal to win. Even after “Dixieland Delight” sent the crowd into a frenzy and Alabama converted a key fourth down, an Oklahoma defense playing without top pass rusher R Mason Thomas and others clamped down on the Tide, who were held scoreless for the final 22:27.
“It was all red, and the lights were on, but we fed off the energy,” Oklahoma defensive lineman Taylor Wein, who had a strip-sack fumble and two quarterback hurries, said of hearing “Dixieland Delight” in the closing minutes. “Little do they know, they think that they’re feeling their team, they’re feeling us, they’re getting us ready to go.”
Wein was one of many Oklahoma players wearing a T-shirt that read “Hard to Kill” on the front and “Enough is Enough” on the back after the game. The Sooners stressed those themes after the loss to Ole Miss, recognizing that a third defeat would probably end their CFP hopes.
“How much is enough?” said kicker Tate Sandell, who went 3-for-3 on field goal attempts, including a 52-yarder. “It’s just having that mindset of staying alive, blue collar, roll your sleeves up and just find a way, and being hard to kill in the process.”
Venables thought the Sooners could “separate ourselves” on special teams, and they delivered, not only with Sandell’s field goals but forcing a Ryan Williams fumble on an Alabama punt return and partially blocking a Conor Talty field goal attempt at the end of the first half to preserve a 17-14 lead. The Sooners had 10 points off turnovers and overcame the massive yards differential by limiting major mistakes and doing the little things to win.
“Who’s it not pretty for? What does that mean?” a smiling Venables asked. “I happen to like it.”
Oklahoma had a more dominant defensive effort last year against Alabama, keeping the Tide out of the end zone. But the 2024 Sooners lost their final two games to finish 6-7 and raised questions about the trajectory under Venables, a first-time head coach.
But this season’s OU team has responded to both of its losses and key injuries, including to quarterback John Mateer, to be in position for a return to the CFP.
“They haven’t flinched,” Venables said. “When the fire is raging and things are looking a little desolate, they have responded several times this year, and they certainly have the last couple of weeks, when it mattered the most. They put respect on our brand again this week.”
Oklahoma must refocus for home games against Missouri and LSU, but the magnitude of Saturday’s win will resonate.
“The pictures after the game, you love the moments, the memories you create,” defensive tackle David Stone said. “We’ll have that for a lifetime.”
A final decision on Thomas’ availability isn’t expected until game time, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel, but he is listed as doubtful on the SEC availability report.
Thomas suffered the injury while returning a fumble 71 yards for a touchdown during the Sooners’ Nov. 1 win over Tennessee.
Oklahoma’s best defensive player, Thomas has a team-leading 6.5 sacks this season along with two forced fumbles and the scoop-and-score fumble recovery.
Starting cornerback Gentry Williams is also doubtful to play against the Crimson Tide. He is set to miss a third straight game with a shoulder injury suffered Oct. 18 against South Carolina.
Wisconsin will start true freshman quarterback Carter Smith at No. 2 Indiana on Saturday, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel, replacing Danny O’Neil after the sophomore was carted off the field with a right leg injury last week.
O’Neil was injured on a 21-yard keeper during the first quarter of last Saturday’s 13-10 win over then-No. 23 Washington. He had a towel over his head as he was carted to the locker room.
Smith made his season debut following O’Neil’s injury, completing 3 of 12 passes for 8 yards while rushing for 47 yards and a touchdown.
Also available to the Badgers at quarterback is senior Hunter Simmons, who is 48-for-95 for 485 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
For Indiana, wide receiver Elijah Sarratt is doubtful to play, sources said. Sarratt, who is tied for the Big Ten lead with 10 touchdown receptions, injured his hamstring against Maryland on Nov. 1 and missed the Penn State game last week.
With Indiana having a bye next week, Sarratt is on track to return against Purdue on Nov. 28.
Quarterback issues have hindered Wisconsin all season and throughout coach Luke Fickell’s three-year tenure.
Billy Edwards Jr. was Wisconsin’s first-team quarterback at the start of the season, but he sprained his knee in the second quarter of the Badgers’ opener and has played only one full series since.
Tanner Mordecai missed 3½ games with a broken hand in 2023. Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke tore his ACL in the third game of the 2024 season.
Wisconsin’s intended season-opening starting quarterback has been available for the entirety of only 11 of the 34 games the Badgers have played since the beginning of the 2023 season. The last time Fickell had his season-opening starting quarterback healthy for a full game was in a 27-13 victory over South Dakota on Sept. 7, 2024.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.