If you spent part of the 2022 college football season thinking, “USC can’t possibly keep getting away with this!!” then you should know this: Your hunches were as statistically sound as they were exasperated.
For much of last fall, the Trojans’ defense was good at one and only one thing: pouncing on the football just in the nick of time. They lacked in just about every other department — they were 93rd in scoring defense (29.2 points per game), 106th in total defense (423.9 yards per game) and a ghastly 124th in yards allowed per play (6.5!) — but they forced 28 turnovers, sixth-most in the FBS.
Every football coach in existence preaches the importance of turnovers and turnover margin. But while you can impact your own turnover margin to some degree with how well you teach ball security and ball pursuit, how aggressively you go after the opponent’s quarterback, how aggressive your own offense is, et cetera, there’s still a massive amount of fortune involved here. And USC’s fortune meter was turned all the way up.
In the first five USC games of 2022, there were nine fumbles, and the Trojans recovered all nine. Fumble recoveries revert to 50% over a long enough period of time, but USC got to an 11-1 record by having recovered 18 of 23 (78%). While a team typically intercepts about one pass to every four pass breakups, their regular-season ratio was 1-to-1.9, and their interceptions total was seven higher than national averages would suggest.
The INT ratio regressed to the mean late in the season, and the fumble recoveries will probably do the same soon enough. Luck and randomness play a massive role in the game of football — especially the version played by 18- to 22-year-olds — and as we slowly gear up for 2023, let’s take a look at who benefited the most from the bounce of the ol’ pointy football.
Fumble recovery rates
Indeed, over a large enough period of time, a team will recover about 50% of all fumbles. There’s a slight correlation between where a fumble occurs and which team is more likely to recover — the further downfield it is, the more likely a defender will pounce on it (primarily because there are usually more defenders in the near vicinity) — but even then the fates don’t change a ton. By simply looking at who recovered a particularly high or low percentage of loose balls, we are learning a lot about who benefited from fortune and who will be impacted by future regression toward the mean.
The Penguins’ captain tied Hall of Famer Joe Sakic at 1,641 points with an assist on Bryan Rust‘s first-period goal. Crosby then moved past Sakic with an assist on Drew O’Connor‘s sixth goal of the season later in the period as the Penguins raced to a 4-1 advantage.
Crosby’s 12th goal 5:42 into the second put the Penguins up 5-1, providing some welcome wiggle room for a team that has struggled to hold multiple-goal leads this season.
The next name ahead of Crosby on the career scoring list is none other than Penguins icon Mario Lemieux, who had 1,723 points.
“I’m running out of superlatives [about Crosby],” Penguins coach Mike Sullivan told reporters after the game. “What he’s accomplishing, first of all, his body of work in the league, his legacy that has been built to this point, speaks for itself. He’s the consummate pro. He just represents our sport, the league, the Pittsburgh Penguins in such a great way.
“He just carries himself with so much grace and humility and integrity. And he’s a fierce competitor on the ice.”
Rust also had a goal and two assists for Pittsburgh, which snapped a three-game losing streak by beating the Oilers for the first time since Dec. 20, 2019.
“For us, that was our goal — to be on our toes, be all over them, be on top of them, because they’re very fast, a skilled team,” Rust told reporters after the game. “I think just a result of that was us being able to get some offense.”
McDavid finished with three assists. Leon Draisaitl scored twice to boost his season total to an NHL-best 31, but the Penguins beat Stuart Skinner four times in the first 14 minutes. Skinner settled down to finish with 21 saves but it wasn’t enough as the Penguins ended Edmonton’s four-game winning streak.
TAKEAWAYS
Oilers: Their attention to detail in the first period was shaky. Though Skinner wasn’t at his best, the Penguins also had little trouble generating chances.
Penguins: Pittsburgh remains a work in progress at midseason but showed it can compete with the league’s best.
UP NEXT
Edmonton finishes a four-game trip at Chicago on Saturday. The Penguins continue a five-game homestand Saturday against Ottawa.
ST. PAUL, Minn. — The Minnesota Wild have added defensemen Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber to their list of key injured players, leaving them out of the lineup for their game against Colorado on Thursday night.
Brodin’s status is day to day. He has a lower-body injury from blocking a shot late in the 6-4 win over St. Louis on Tuesday night. Wild coach John Hynes had no update after the team’s morning skate on Thursday on the timetable for the return of Faber, who has an upper-body injury from an elbow he took from Blues forward Jake Neighbours at the end of his first shift.
The Wild already were missing captain Jared Spurgeon (lower body), who is expected to be out for another week or two after taking a slew foot from Nashville forward Zachary L’Heureux in their game on Dec. 31. That leaves Minnesota without three of its top four defensemen. Jake Middleton just returned from a 10-game absence because of an upper-body injury.
The Wild also have been without star left wing Kirill Kaprizov (lower body), who missed his seventh straight game on Thursday. Kaprizov, who is tied for fourth in the NHL with 23 goals and ninth in the league with 50 points, has skated on the last two days and could return soon.
The Columbus Blue Jackets placed forward Sean Monahan on injured reserve Thursday because of an upper body injury sustained in the 4-3 shootout win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
Adam Fantilli is expected to move up to center the top line when the Blue Jackets host the Seattle Kraken on Thursday.
“Guys have watched how [Monahan] conducts himself, and hopefully they try to do the exact same thing,” coach Dean Evason said Thursday. “Our bench is calm in large part because of him up front and [defenseman Zach Werenski] on the back end. They’re both very calming influence players, but we have other guys that do that as well.
“But if the guys that are playing in tonight’s hockey game have learned anything from ‘Monny,’ it’s that he’s even-keeled. He doesn’t get too high, too low, all those clichés. He just goes about his business. We expect our team to do that here tonight.”
In a corresponding move, the Blue Jackets added rookie forward Owen Sillinger on an emergency recall from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters.
Monahan, 30, has 41 points (14 goals, 27 assists), 14 penalty minutes and a plus-17 rating in 41 games this season. He ranks second on the team in plus/minus rating and third in goals, assists and points.
He has 579 career points (258 goals, 321 assists) in 805 games with the Calgary Flames (2013-22), Montreal Canadiens (2022-24), Winnipeg Jets (2024) and Blue Jackets, who signed him as a free agent in July. The Flames selected him sixth overall in the 2013 NHL draft.
Sillinger, 27, is on a one-year, two-way NHL/AHL contract with the Blue Jackets. He has eight goals and 17 assists with 18 penalty minutes in 34 games with Cleveland this season.
