Windsor Framework: What role will EU rules continue to play in Northern Ireland?
Forget the politics. The plaudits. The tiny number of entries on the rebellion spreadsheets. The cries that Brexit is over. Forget the reports saying it’s been Rishi Sunak’s best day since becoming prime minister.
Arguably what matters much more is the massive further constitutional and political change set to be enacted within our borders – largely affecting Northern Ireland. Just how big a deal is this really?
The PM announced a deal on Monday that will change Northern Ireland’s place within the EU’s single market by eradicating some EU-imposed checks that had to be carried out on goods heading west over the Irish sea.
Sunak ‘over the moon’ with deal – as he tours Northern Ireland – politics latest
However, this deal will not end EU law in Northern Ireland nor the ultimate oversight of EU judges in limited circumstances – something which Rishi Sunak has been candid about, but nevertheless places that nation on a different course from the rest of the UK.
And far from playing down the differences across the Union of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak has been selling Northern Ireland’s special status and different constitutional arrangements very hard – telling everyone it is an advantage.
In Belfast, the PM described it as an “unbelievably special position” and a “unique position in the entire world” because Northern Ireland retains “privileged access” to “the European Union single market.”
Mr Sunak makes it sound so good that some people on the British mainland might start getting jealous – perhaps an odd stance coming from a Brexiteer who purported to want to leave the single market.
There is no question Sunak has negotiated an ambitious deal out of reach of his predecessors. But just how much EU law is left, and could Northern Ireland still look very different to the rest of the UK in 20 years?
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS
No more new EU laws?
The most remarkable part of the negotiation is the “veto” on new EU single market laws which will apply in Northern Ireland. This has attracted plaudits from Brexiteers and unionists.
However, it is unclear how often it will be applied. Might it be in practice that only a handful of new EU laws are blocked this way, and the vast majority are still implemented? Early signs suggest this is the case, rather than it being used as a wholesale blocking mechanism.
The EU briefing paper on the Commission website says of the new veto: “This mechanism would be triggered under the most exceptional circumstances and as a matter of last resort”, making clear there is no expectation that it should be used regularly.
The details set out in the UK paper also make this obvious. Firstly, the entire mechanism requires the Stormont assembly to be back up and running to work, which – as things stand – still seems unlikely.
It can only be used on “non-trivial” issues, with the UK government, not Northern Irish politicians, determining what is “trivial”.
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It requires 30 members of two parties in the Assembly to agree for the “brake” to be triggered.
The UK government must be minded to agree too, aware of the diplomatic wrangling and blowback it will cause and often having different policy goals. EU trade deals cannot be subject to a veto, or measures to prevent fraud.
And it must be proved in writing that the veto is being used as a last resort, with other measures – like the whole of the UK implementing the EU rule – having to be considered first.
Finally, if Northern Ireland does use its veto, it can be punished by the EU by imposing other sanctions.
The UK document says: “It is important to note that the permanent disapplication of the rules would mean divergence between Northern Ireland and Ireland (and the broader EU), and thus it would be a matter for the EU how to deal with the consequent impact on their market. Recognising this, the EU will have the ability to take ‘appropriate remedial measures’.”
As a consequence, none of this makes it sound like the veto at the heart of the deal will be in regular use: is it really a lever to look at and admire rather than pull?
What happens to existing single market goods laws?
They remain in place for firms in Northern Ireland. The documentation makes clear that as part of this process, the EU will now be “disapplying over 1,700 pages of EU law in the process, and the ECJ oversight which comes with it”.
However, the law being disapplied is not EU law in force in Northern Ireland, but instead the EU rules on trade introduced as part of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal introducing checks on goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
Or, in the words of the UK government document: “disapplication (is) of core parts of the EU customs code and SPS rules for internal UK trade”. This new policy – green lanes with almost no checks for GB goods going to Northern Ireland – is a big win, but the EU can remove it at any time if they are unhappy with its operation.
Sunak welcomes Ursula von der Leyen to Windsor to discuss the Northern Ireland talks. Pic: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Has the UK got complete control of VAT and subsidy policy?
The headline is simple enough – that Westminster has taken back control from Brussels of the ability to set certain tax rates and determine state aid levels for business, something which bothered Rishi Sunak back when he was chancellor.
The reality is, of course, less straightforward. In practice, Westminster has much more freedom than it did – but it is not sovereign in these areas in the way Brexiteers would like. Rather than blanket changes, the EU has granted specific exemptions on VAT – for instance, the UK can apply reduced VAT rates on goods such as heat pumps supplied and installed in properties and does not need to apply the special EU VAT scheme for small enterprises in Northern Ireland provided the business turnover is not bigger than an EU-wide set level.
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Sky’s political correspondent Rob Powell explains what this new Brexit deal means, and what happens next.
However, the EU and UK have only agreed to “explore establishing” a list of goods not being at risk of entering the EU which would not be subject to EU VAT rules. And while alcohol taxes will in future be levied in Northern Ireland by strength, the same way they are in the rest of Britain, “the UK will not be able to apply any duty rate below the EU minima.”
These are all limits that Northern Ireland politicians will have to put up with for generations to come. On state aid, a new declaration clarifies and narrows the scope of what Brussels can determine on state aid but, according to the EU Commission document, it is still the case “Article 10(1) of the Protocol makes EU State aid rules applicable in Northern Ireland.”
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The prime minister champions the new Brexit deal
What happens in the future?
All MPs are, understandably, evaluating the new Windsor Framework on the basis of what it means for the politics of today and the next election. But what about 20 years time?
In particular, what if Britain wants to take bolder advantage of its Brexit freedoms? Here the UK document is fascinatingly mercurial. It says it understands the EU has made compromises in protecting the EU single market and adds that the UK government moving away from EU standards remains a possibility.
“Inherent in this new way forward is the prospect of significant divergence between the two distinct economies on the island of Ireland – from food and drink to plants and pets, building on the existing differences in every area of economic and political life such as services, migration, currency and taxation.”
The answer to that prospect of divergence is potentially more intense monitoring of goods moving between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
“This will require increased market surveillance North-South in some instances to ensure that there is no abuse of these arrangements to move goods across the international border from Northern Ireland into Ireland, and new requirements on Ireland and other EU Member States to ensure that sensitive products such as food are not moved illegally across that international border.”
It is not, however, clear what that “market surveillance” will amount to.
Sunak has solved many of today’s problems left behind by Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal in Northern Ireland. However, nobody can say what this week’s deal means for the constitutional, political economic status of Northern Ireland in 20 years time – that can only be guesswork.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.
The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.
On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”
At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.
Benjamin Netanyahu, left, with Donald Trump during a previous meeting. Pic: Reuters
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.
The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.
An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.
She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.
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The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.
An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.
Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.
World
Brutal murder on ‘date’ exposes robbery gang suspected of targeting dozens of women in South Africa
Thirty-year-old Olorato Mongale made sure to take all the measures necessary for a safe first date in South Africa’s biggest city, Johannesburg.
She had agreed to meet ‘John’ in the daytime. She sent her friends her phone location after leaving her house and promptly texted them “on the road” at 2.47pm.
They replied “enjoy!”, hoping she would find love.
An hour later, their friend had gone silent and her phone location was showing up in dangerous areas of the city.
A search party of seven friends set off to trace Olorato’s digital footsteps.
It’s believed Olorato’s killers were part of a gang robbing young women at gunpoint
“It didn’t make sense. Where is she? Why is she missing?” says Karabo Mokoena, as we drove to the locations involved in their search.
“Every place we went to looked dodgier and dodgier. It made me panic – I was very scared.”
After finding her bag on a pile of bricks off the side of a main road, they filed a missing person report at a police station.
“I thought there was no way we were not going to find her. We did end up finding her but not in the way we would have hoped,” says Karabo.
Olorato’s body had been dumped at the dirt entrance of a random house less than 100m from where her friends were searching into the night.
Her face was swollen and her eyes black-blue from violent impact. Her top was ripped open to expose her breasts.
Police told Sky News that her post-mortem showed signs of blunt force trauma. She was likely beaten to death.
Olorato’s body was dumped outside this gate – she was likely beaten to death
“It was like I was dreaming, seeing her body like that with those bruises and blood everywhere,” says Olorato’s mother, Keabetswe Poppy Mongale, describing the moment she had to identify her only child at the morgue.
“I don’t think what I saw will ever go away,” she adds.
“It was very painful. I don’t wish that on any parent because my beautiful little girl looked different because someone chose to do that to her.”
Olorato’s mother says the image of her daughter in the morgue will never go away
CCTV from the driveway of Olorato’s building shows the last time she was seen alive, leaving her home to meet ‘John’.
In the video, she walks towards a white Volkswagen Polo and hesitates as she reaches the left back door. John had come with a friend.
Four days after Olorato was killed, police found the car in a different province with traces of her blood splattered across the back seat.
CCTV showed Olorato walking to a car for what she thought was a date
One suspect was shot dead but the second man is still on the run
Philangenkosi Sibongokuhle Makanya – ‘John’ – was shot dead by police in KwaZulu-Natal shortly after they found the vehicle.
The second man in the car, Bongani Mthimkhulu, is still on the run.
The two men have since been identified as part of a dangerous criminal syndicate that lure young women out on dates and rob them at gunpoint.
“Within the four days, the investigating officers received 94 calls from women who were raising concerns and identifying the suspects as those they once met,” South African Police Service deputy national commissioner Lieutenant General Tebello Mosikili told Sky News.
“It was unfortunate about Olorato, but others were released after being robbed.”
Olorato’s friends say she ‘ticked all the boxes when it came to being careful’
A 24-year-old student who survived an armed robbery at the hands of Olorato’s suspected killers says she was happy to see Philangenkosi killed but she’s still scared for her life.
“As women, we are not even safe anymore – we can’t even walk freely,” she says.
“The moment you leave your house you wonder if you will make it back alive. I don’t feel comfortable walking around the street. I leave the house and then turn back.
“Even when I’m home, I still don’t feel safe and always want to keep myself locked indoors,” she says with a shaky voice – choosing to remain anonymous.
After meeting other victims of the syndicate, she was shocked to hear details of almost identical abductions.
“This other girl was surprised because we went through the exact same situation. They also approached her with the same tactic – let me take you out to lunch to get to know you – only for her to be robbed.”
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South Africa has one of the highest femicide rates in the world – an average 15 women are killed a day, many by their intimate partners.
According to police statistics, more than 5,500 women were murdered in South Africa last year. An increase of 33.8% compared with the previous year.
“South Africa has six times the average rate of femicide – hundreds of women have already been killed since Olorato’s murder,” says Cameron Kasambala from Women for Change.
The advocacy group raises awareness of rising cases of femicide and gender-based violence across South Africa.
Campaigner Cameron Kasambala says many femicide cases take a long time to be resolved
In the hours after her murder, Olorato’s friends contacted Women for Change to share her missing poster after receiving little immediate help from the local police station.
“I think her friends were the real heroes in that moment,” says Cameron.
“Two police stations that were 10 minutes apart, one finds a body and one has a missing case, don’t make a connection for hours. It’s not the most reassuring police work. And if the friends had not come forward, how long would it have taken?
“Unfortunately, Olorato’s case is an exception. Most cases are not handled that quickly.”
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Olorato’s friends say she would be ‘proud to know that her name has not gone in vain’
Olorato’s friends are still contending with the violence of her death – what it means for their daily lives and how they navigate their safety as women in South Africa.
“It is difficult to process and difficult to believe. This is somebody who ticked all the boxes when it came to being careful – being meticulous, checking her surroundings and leaving clues,” says Olorato’s friend, Koketso Sejosengoe.
“It shows it can happen to anybody no matter how safe you are. It is happening to the average girl. They are being targeted. These men know what they are doing and who they are looking for.”
“In the purest sense, Olorato wanted women to be safe and wanted women to be protected,” adds Koketso.
“I think she would be very proud to know that her name has not gone in vain and that her death is standing for something – that there will be change that comes with this.”
Major heatwaves across southern Europe have left Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece in sweltering conditions of more than 40C (104F).
Two-thirds of Portugal was on high alert for extreme heat and risk of wildfires on Sunday, with temperatures in Lisbon expected to exceed 42C (107F).
In parts of southern Spain, temperatures are well above average, with 42C also expected in Seville and other cities.
The country’s meteorological service says June is likely to be the hottest Spain has experienced since records began.
In several Italian regions, including Lazio, Tuscany, Calabria, Puglia, and Umbria, outdoor work was banned during peak hours of sun on Sunday, with trade unions pushing for the measures to be extended and rolled out nationwide.
Twenty-one out of 27 cities were under the highest possible heat alert, including Rome, Milan, and Naples.
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Greece has already been plagued by wildfires this summer, with one breaking out south of Athens on Thursday, and several on the island of Chios last Sunday.
Near Athens, authorities deployed 130 firefighters, 12 helicopters, and 12 planes, with 40 people evacuated from the highest-risk areas.
A woman was arrested on suspicion of unintentional arson after wildfires spread across brush and pastureland for three days on Chios.
Flames rise above Thymari, near Athens, after wildfires broke out on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Tourists battle scorching temperatures at the Parthenon in Greece on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Scientists link increasing frequencies of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, wildfires, and storms to climate change.
In France and Germany, at least three people died amid stormy conditions.
A ridge of high pressure above central and western Europe is driving the scorching conditions, says Sky News meteorologist Chris England.
Hotter-than-normal sea temperatures, dry land, and surface winds are also partly to blame, he added.
Tourists in Retiro Park in Madrid on Saturday. Pic: AP
Locals fan themselves in Lisbon on Saturday. Pic: AP
UK heatwave also likely
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UK heatwaves explained
The UK is halfway through a four-day amber heat health alert, with temperatures expected to peak in the mid-30s (86F) on Tuesday.
Heat health alerts are not public weather warnings – but are instead designed to prepare health and social care bodies for the potential impact on their infrastructure and vulnerable groups.
Heatwave thresholds are likely to be met on Monday and Tuesday, which vary between 28C (82F) in the south of England and 25C (77F) across the rest of the country.
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