Windsor Framework: What role will EU rules continue to play in Northern Ireland?
Forget the politics. The plaudits. The tiny number of entries on the rebellion spreadsheets. The cries that Brexit is over. Forget the reports saying it’s been Rishi Sunak’s best day since becoming prime minister.
Arguably what matters much more is the massive further constitutional and political change set to be enacted within our borders – largely affecting Northern Ireland. Just how big a deal is this really?
The PM announced a deal on Monday that will change Northern Ireland’s place within the EU’s single market by eradicating some EU-imposed checks that had to be carried out on goods heading west over the Irish sea.
Sunak ‘over the moon’ with deal – as he tours Northern Ireland – politics latest
However, this deal will not end EU law in Northern Ireland nor the ultimate oversight of EU judges in limited circumstances – something which Rishi Sunak has been candid about, but nevertheless places that nation on a different course from the rest of the UK.
And far from playing down the differences across the Union of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak has been selling Northern Ireland’s special status and different constitutional arrangements very hard – telling everyone it is an advantage.
In Belfast, the PM described it as an “unbelievably special position” and a “unique position in the entire world” because Northern Ireland retains “privileged access” to “the European Union single market.”
Mr Sunak makes it sound so good that some people on the British mainland might start getting jealous – perhaps an odd stance coming from a Brexiteer who purported to want to leave the single market.
There is no question Sunak has negotiated an ambitious deal out of reach of his predecessors. But just how much EU law is left, and could Northern Ireland still look very different to the rest of the UK in 20 years?
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS
No more new EU laws?
The most remarkable part of the negotiation is the “veto” on new EU single market laws which will apply in Northern Ireland. This has attracted plaudits from Brexiteers and unionists.
However, it is unclear how often it will be applied. Might it be in practice that only a handful of new EU laws are blocked this way, and the vast majority are still implemented? Early signs suggest this is the case, rather than it being used as a wholesale blocking mechanism.
The EU briefing paper on the Commission website says of the new veto: “This mechanism would be triggered under the most exceptional circumstances and as a matter of last resort”, making clear there is no expectation that it should be used regularly.
The details set out in the UK paper also make this obvious. Firstly, the entire mechanism requires the Stormont assembly to be back up and running to work, which – as things stand – still seems unlikely.
It can only be used on “non-trivial” issues, with the UK government, not Northern Irish politicians, determining what is “trivial”.
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It requires 30 members of two parties in the Assembly to agree for the “brake” to be triggered.
The UK government must be minded to agree too, aware of the diplomatic wrangling and blowback it will cause and often having different policy goals. EU trade deals cannot be subject to a veto, or measures to prevent fraud.
And it must be proved in writing that the veto is being used as a last resort, with other measures – like the whole of the UK implementing the EU rule – having to be considered first.
Finally, if Northern Ireland does use its veto, it can be punished by the EU by imposing other sanctions.
The UK document says: “It is important to note that the permanent disapplication of the rules would mean divergence between Northern Ireland and Ireland (and the broader EU), and thus it would be a matter for the EU how to deal with the consequent impact on their market. Recognising this, the EU will have the ability to take ‘appropriate remedial measures’.”
As a consequence, none of this makes it sound like the veto at the heart of the deal will be in regular use: is it really a lever to look at and admire rather than pull?
What happens to existing single market goods laws?
They remain in place for firms in Northern Ireland. The documentation makes clear that as part of this process, the EU will now be “disapplying over 1,700 pages of EU law in the process, and the ECJ oversight which comes with it”.
However, the law being disapplied is not EU law in force in Northern Ireland, but instead the EU rules on trade introduced as part of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal introducing checks on goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
Or, in the words of the UK government document: “disapplication (is) of core parts of the EU customs code and SPS rules for internal UK trade”. This new policy – green lanes with almost no checks for GB goods going to Northern Ireland – is a big win, but the EU can remove it at any time if they are unhappy with its operation.
Sunak welcomes Ursula von der Leyen to Windsor to discuss the Northern Ireland talks. Pic: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Has the UK got complete control of VAT and subsidy policy?
The headline is simple enough – that Westminster has taken back control from Brussels of the ability to set certain tax rates and determine state aid levels for business, something which bothered Rishi Sunak back when he was chancellor.
The reality is, of course, less straightforward. In practice, Westminster has much more freedom than it did – but it is not sovereign in these areas in the way Brexiteers would like. Rather than blanket changes, the EU has granted specific exemptions on VAT – for instance, the UK can apply reduced VAT rates on goods such as heat pumps supplied and installed in properties and does not need to apply the special EU VAT scheme for small enterprises in Northern Ireland provided the business turnover is not bigger than an EU-wide set level.
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Sky’s political correspondent Rob Powell explains what this new Brexit deal means, and what happens next.
However, the EU and UK have only agreed to “explore establishing” a list of goods not being at risk of entering the EU which would not be subject to EU VAT rules. And while alcohol taxes will in future be levied in Northern Ireland by strength, the same way they are in the rest of Britain, “the UK will not be able to apply any duty rate below the EU minima.”
These are all limits that Northern Ireland politicians will have to put up with for generations to come. On state aid, a new declaration clarifies and narrows the scope of what Brussels can determine on state aid but, according to the EU Commission document, it is still the case “Article 10(1) of the Protocol makes EU State aid rules applicable in Northern Ireland.”
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The prime minister champions the new Brexit deal
What happens in the future?
All MPs are, understandably, evaluating the new Windsor Framework on the basis of what it means for the politics of today and the next election. But what about 20 years time?
In particular, what if Britain wants to take bolder advantage of its Brexit freedoms? Here the UK document is fascinatingly mercurial. It says it understands the EU has made compromises in protecting the EU single market and adds that the UK government moving away from EU standards remains a possibility.
“Inherent in this new way forward is the prospect of significant divergence between the two distinct economies on the island of Ireland – from food and drink to plants and pets, building on the existing differences in every area of economic and political life such as services, migration, currency and taxation.”
The answer to that prospect of divergence is potentially more intense monitoring of goods moving between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
“This will require increased market surveillance North-South in some instances to ensure that there is no abuse of these arrangements to move goods across the international border from Northern Ireland into Ireland, and new requirements on Ireland and other EU Member States to ensure that sensitive products such as food are not moved illegally across that international border.”
It is not, however, clear what that “market surveillance” will amount to.
Sunak has solved many of today’s problems left behind by Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal in Northern Ireland. However, nobody can say what this week’s deal means for the constitutional, political economic status of Northern Ireland in 20 years time – that can only be guesswork.
Donald Trump has claimed Russia is “making concessions” in talks to end the Ukraine war – and that Kyiv is “happy” with how talks are progressing.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he flew out to his Florida estate for Thanksgiving, Mr Trump said “we’re making progress” on a deal and said he would be willing to meet with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy once they are close to an agreement.
He also said his previously announced deadline of Thursday, which is Thanksgiving, was no longer in place – and that the White House’s initial 28-point peace plan, which sparked such concern in Kyiv, “was just a map”.
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on aboard Air Force One during travel to Palm Beach, Florida, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., Nov
Asked if Ukraine had been asked to hand over too much territory, Mr Trump suggested that “over the next couple of months [that] might be gotten by Russia anyway”.
Moscow’s concessions are a promise to stop fighting, “and they don’t take any more land”, he said.
“The deadline for me is when it’s over,” he added. “And I think everybody’s tired of fighting at this moment.”
Read more: A plan with Russian fingerprints all over it
Before boarding the plane, Mr Trump claimed only a few “points of disagreement” remain between the two sides.
Mr Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff will be meeting with Mr Putin in Moscow next week, the president said, while American army secretary Daniel Driscoll is due to travel to Kyiv for talks this week.
The chief of Ukraine’s presidential staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote: “Ukraine has never been and will never be an obstacle to peace. We are grateful to the US for all its support.
“The meeting between the presidents will be thoroughly and promptly prepared on our part.”
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‘Ukraine still needs defence support,’ says Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy warns against ‘behind our back’ deal
Yesterday, a virtual “coalition of the willing” meeting that featured Ukraine’s allies took place, which was attended by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
In a speech, Mr Zelenskyy told attendees: “We firmly believe security decisions about Ukraine must include Ukraine, security decisions about Europe must include Europe.
“Because when something is decided behind the back of a country or its people, there is always a high risk it simply won’t work.”
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What is Russia saying about the latest peace talks?
A joint statement from coalition leaders Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz said they had agreed with Mr Rubio “to accelerate joint work” with the US on the planning of security guarantees for Ukraine.
But a Ukrainian diplomat has warned major sticking points remain in the peace deal being thrashed out – primarily the prospect of territorial concessions.
A warning from the Kremlin
Meanwhile, Moscow has stressed that it will not allow any agreement to stray too far from its own objectives.
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned any amended peace plan must reflect the understanding reached between Mr Trump and Mr Putin over the summer.
“If the spirit and letter of Anchorage is erased in terms of the key understandings we have established then, of course, it will be a fundamentally different situation,” he said, referring to the two leaders’ meeting in Alaska.
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Standing ovation for Zelenskyy
As negotiations continue, so have Russian attacks, with Kyiv hit by a barrage of missiles and hundreds of drones early yesterday morning.
Seven people were killed with power and heating systems disrupted, as residents sheltered underground.
Meanwhile, three people died and homes were damaged after Ukraine launched an attack on southern Russia.
‘A critical juncture’
French President Emmanuel Macron has said peace efforts are gathering momentum, but “are clearly at a critical juncture”.
And during the annual White House turkey pardon ahead of Thanksgiving, Mr Trump told reporters: “I think we’re getting close to a deal. We’ll find out.
“I thought that would have been an easier one, but I think we’re making progress.”
In this story, there’s no substitute for hard news.
To learn of US envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian interactions is to understand the handbrake turn towards Moscow.
If there was much surprise and confusion about the origins of a peace proposal that had Russian fingerprints all over it, there is less now.
The Bloomberg report of Witkoff’s recent involvement distills eye-watering detail of his contact with Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s senior adviser on foreign policy.
Among the revelations, it tells of the American advising the Russian on dealing with Trump.
In a phone call last month, Witkoff told Ushakov that Zelenskyy was coming to visit the White House, and suggested Putin speak to Trump beforehand.
Witkoff reportedly said: “The president will give me a lot of space and discretion to get to the deal.”
He spoke of Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan and suggested that “maybe we do the same thing with you”.
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Steve Witkoff: Real estate mogul turned envoy
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What is Russia saying about the latest peace talks?
A good impression of a useful idiot
Subsequently, Witkoff drafted the controversial peace proposal with his Russian counterparts, and the US pressured Ukraine to accept it.
The report paints an unflattering picture of Trump’s envoy doing a good impression of a useful idiot.
There must be serious questions surrounding his engagement with the Russians and serious concerns around consequences that are potentially catastrophic.
Moscow’s threat to Ukraine and to the security infrastructure of Western Europe is strengthened on his handshake.
He’ll press the flesh in Russia once more – Donald Trump is sending Witkoff back to Moscow for further talks aimed at bridging the Ukraine-Russia impasse.
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Trump: I think we are getting very close to Ukraine deal
Scandal isn’t what it used to be
Putin has given the Americans little to no encouragement around their reworked plan and Kyiv will shudder at what Trump’s “Mr Fixit” might fix next.
They will despair of his continued involvement at any level and what it says about Trump’s perspective and where his loyalties lie.
In any other job, Witkoff might have been sacked for being irredeemably compromised.
At any other time, this would have been viewed, universally, as a major scandal.
But under Donald Trump, scandal isn’t what it used to be.
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‘Ukraine still needs defence support,’ says Zelenskyy
The president and his point man continue to consort with Vladimir Putin.
On the evidence of Steve Witkoff’s interaction, the power dynamic leans less Trump than we might have thought.
World
Venezuela: Maduro brandishes sword and vows to defy any US attempt to overthrow his government
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vowed to defy any US attempt to overthrow his government – telling crowds that “failure is not an option”.
The 63-year-old brandished a sword as he addressed supporters during a march in Caracas, against a backdrop of growing tensions with Donald Trump’s administration.
Dressed in camouflage fatigues, Mr Maduro said: “We must be ready to defend every inch of this blessed land from imperialist threat or aggression, no matter where it comes from.”
Maduro was swamped by supporters. Pic: Reuters
Since September, US military forces have been conducting a series of strikes against vessels suspected of drug trafficking in international waters, killing at least 80 people.
Washington has claimed that several of these boats had departed from Venezuela, with Mr Maduro describing the deployment as an assault on the nation’s sovereignty.
‘Stop this madness’
Yesterday, Cuba also accused the US of seeking a violent overthrow of Mr Maduro’s government – and called its military presence in the region “exaggerated and aggressive”.
The country’s foreign minister, Bruno Rodriguez, said ousting Venezuela’s leader would be extremely dangerous and irresponsible, not to mention a violation of international law.
He added: “We appeal to the people of the United States to stop this madness. The US government could cause an incalculable number of deaths and create a scenario of violence and instability in the hemisphere that would be unimaginable.”
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Is US about to go to war with Venezuela?
Reports suggest the US is planning to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days.
Critics have questioned the legality of America’s campaign and argue it amounts to extrajudicial killings, with a recent poll suggesting just 29% of voters support this policy.
Officials within Maduro’s government have claimed that Washington’s actions are being driven by economic motives.
Venezuelan minister Delcy Rodriguez said: “They want Venezuela’s oil and gas reserves. For nothing, without paying. They want Venezuela’s gold.
“They want Venezuela’s diamonds, iron, bauxite. They want Venezuela’s natural resources.”
Venezuela’s president has remained defiant. Pic: AP
Donald Trump, like his predecessor Joe Biden, does not recognise Mr Maduro as the country’s leader.
He is currently on his third term after being declared the winner of last year’s presidential election, despite evidence that the opposition defeated him by a two-to-one margin.
Mr Maduro and senior officials have been repeatedly accused of human rights violations against real and perceived government opponents.
Earlier this week, the US designated Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles – Cartel of the Suns in English – as a foreign terrorist organisation for importing illegal drugs to the States.
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Venezuelan president dances to speech remix
The Trump administration has claimed that Maduro is part of this group, but Venezuelan officials have described its mere existence as a “ridiculous fabrication”.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he travelled to Florida for Thanksgiving, the president suggested he might be planning to talk to Mr Maduro.
“If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way, that’s fine,” the US president said. “And if we have to do it the hard way, then that’s fine too.”
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US strikes alleged drug boat
Carlos Diaz Rosillo, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defence during the first Trump administration, does not believe America will go to war with Venezuela.
He told The World With Dominic Waghorn: “What I do see is a strategy of maximum pressure on the regime. I do think if there’s any change, that change has to come from within the military.”
Dr Rosillo said the official position of the US government is not regime change, but Mr Trump would like to see that happen in Venezuela.
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