Windsor Framework’s value to economy unlikely to be notable but may lift Brexit malaise
How much of a difference might the Windsor Framework make to the UK economy?
The answer, as with so many other economic questions, rather depends on how you look at it.
Let’s begin with the basics.
This deal will not change the formal trade relationship between the UK and the EU.
All those post-Brexit issues with frictions and customs checks stay as they are, at least for goods passing between the EU and the rest of the UK.
Mostly, this deal is aimed at improving the flow of goods across the Irish Sea, while also preventing the erection of a border on the island of Ireland. And here, there are certainly some areas where the friction is all too evident.
That might not be altogether obvious from overall trade figures, which still show a gradual increase in sales passing across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. But since the imposition of EU rules on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, there has been a sharp fall in food imports.
One way of seeing this is by drilling down into the data and looking at how much in the way of food and vegetables Northern Ireland gets these days from the Republic of Ireland (as opposed to the rest of the UK). And indeed: after the end of the transition period the food and veg imports from Ireland more than doubled – a massive shift.
If the Windsor Framework does as intended, it should unblock these UK flows, meaning Northern Ireland can once again rely on free (or freer) transit of most goods from the rest of the UK.
That could help boost economic growth and possibly investment too. As the PM said on Tuesday, Northern Ireland will benefit from being part of two economic zones at once, the UK and European single market.
Leaving aside the obvious rejoinder that that was precisely Britain’s situation pre-Brexit, this could encourage businesses to pump more cash into Belfast and beyond.
Will this make much difference to Britain’s wider economic fortunes? Not necessarily, or if it does it might not be especially noticeable.
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Why? Because Northern Ireland accounts for just 2.2% of UK gross value added (London is 24%). Even a big boost in that part of the UK won’t necessarily be evident from overall UK GDP.
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What is the Windsor Framework?
That being said, the real question is whether this agreement – the most conciliatory yet since 2016 – will be seen as a step shift.
Will it persuade international investors that the era of instability in Britain’s trade relations is now at an end? If so that could well persuade people to reallocate their cash to this country.
Guessing at the overall impact of that is a mug’s game. Indeed, even the size of the economic hole made by Brexit is a hard thing to work out. The Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility reckon it might amount to 3-4% of GDP – a big number, and even if you subscribe to these numbers there are also questions about how much of the pain has already been inflicted.
One Bank of England policymaker, Jonathan Haskel, has a more conservative estimate: based on what’s happened to business investment numbers, he thinks the UK may be around 1.3% less well off than it would otherwise have been.
That might sound trivial, but it equates to around £1,000 per household.
It seems unlikely that the Windsor Framework could make all that much difference to that figure – Britain still went for a hard Brexit and this will not change it – but some suspect there is a chance that this is the turning of the tide.
Business
Chancellor’s Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape – saying post-financial crash rules went ‘too far’
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.
Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.
“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.
It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.
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It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.
Rachel Reeves
Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit
Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.
A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.
Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.
Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.
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Bailey: Inflation expected to rise
In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.
The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.
“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.
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The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.
Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.
He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”
Business
Reeves has welcome support from Bank’s governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City
When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.
Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.
As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.
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Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.
Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.
By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.
“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.
Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.
Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.
Rachel Reeves on budget day. Pic: PA
Her plans to consolidate local authority pension schemes so they might match the investing power of their Canadian and Australian counterparts is part of the same theme.
Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.
Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth
If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.
He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.
Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.
With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.
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Governor warns inflation expected to rise
He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.
While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.
There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.
“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.
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All that is welcome for Ms Reeves.
Already a groundbreaking chancellor, she is aiming for a political and economic legacy that extends beyond her gender and the dress code.
Water company United Utilities has reported hundreds of millions in profit as it seeks to further increase customer bills.
The utility serving seven million customers in the northwest of England recorded £335.7m in underlying operating profits for the first half of this year, up nearly 23% from £271.1m a year ago.
It comes as the firm has requested bills rise 32% to make them among the most expensive in England and Wales.
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The proposed average annual bill would increase to £584 by 2030 from the £443 typical yearly charge in the 2023/2024 financial year. Since April 2023 bills have been upped 6.4% and then 7.9%.
Bills hikes were behind the rise in revenue to more than £1.08bn from £975.4m in 2023.
Other ways of assessing profit were lower than the underlying operating sum. Profit before tax reached £140.6m while after tax profit topped £103.1m for the six months to the end of September 2024, both lower than a year earlier.
Boss’s pay
Bonus and benefits payments worth £1.416m were paid to two executives on top of £1.128m in base pay, according to analysis of company filings done by the Liberal Democrats.
It’s down compared with 2022/2023 when three executives were given £1.6m in base pay and £2.456m in bonuses and benefits.
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The environment
In a year of record sewage outflows into waterways the company was one of just three firms that met the Environment Agency’s top four-star performance ranking.
United Utilities in July came under investigation by water regulator Ofwat for not meeting its obligation to minimise pollution.
In response the company said at the time: “We understand and share people’s concerns about the health of the environment and the operation of wastewater systems, including combined sewer overflows.”
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