Business

Windsor Framework’s value to economy unlikely to be notable but may lift Brexit malaise

Published

2 years ago

February 28, 2023

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How much of a difference might the Windsor Framework make to the UK economy?

The answer, as with so many other economic questions, rather depends on how you look at it.

Let’s begin with the basics.

This deal will not change the formal trade relationship between the UK and the EU.

All those post-Brexit issues with frictions and customs checks stay as they are, at least for goods passing between the EU and the rest of the UK.

Mostly, this deal is aimed at improving the flow of goods across the Irish Sea, while also preventing the erection of a border on the island of Ireland. And here, there are certainly some areas where the friction is all too evident.

That might not be altogether obvious from overall trade figures, which still show a gradual increase in sales passing across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. But since the imposition of EU rules on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, there has been a sharp fall in food imports.

One way of seeing this is by drilling down into the data and looking at how much in the way of food and vegetables Northern Ireland gets these days from the Republic of Ireland (as opposed to the rest of the UK). And indeed: after the end of the transition period the food and veg imports from Ireland more than doubled – a massive shift.

If the Windsor Framework does as intended, it should unblock these UK flows, meaning Northern Ireland can once again rely on free (or freer) transit of most goods from the rest of the UK.

That could help boost economic growth and possibly investment too. As the PM said on Tuesday, Northern Ireland will benefit from being part of two economic zones at once, the UK and European single market.

Leaving aside the obvious rejoinder that that was precisely Britain’s situation pre-Brexit, this could encourage businesses to pump more cash into Belfast and beyond.

Will this make much difference to Britain’s wider economic fortunes? Not necessarily, or if it does it might not be especially noticeable.

Why? Because Northern Ireland accounts for just 2.2% of UK gross value added (London is 24%). Even a big boost in that part of the UK won’t necessarily be evident from overall UK GDP.

That being said, the real question is whether this agreement – the most conciliatory yet since 2016 – will be seen as a step shift.

Will it persuade international investors that the era of instability in Britain’s trade relations is now at an end? If so that could well persuade people to reallocate their cash to this country.

Guessing at the overall impact of that is a mug’s game. Indeed, even the size of the economic hole made by Brexit is a hard thing to work out. The Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility reckon it might amount to 3-4% of GDP – a big number, and even if you subscribe to these numbers there are also questions about how much of the pain has already been inflicted.

One Bank of England policymaker, Jonathan Haskel, has a more conservative estimate: based on what’s happened to business investment numbers, he thinks the UK may be around 1.3% less well off than it would otherwise have been.

That might sound trivial, but it equates to around £1,000 per household.

It seems unlikely that the Windsor Framework could make all that much difference to that figure – Britain still went for a hard Brexit and this will not change it – but some suspect there is a chance that this is the turning of the tide.

Business

UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century

Published

3 hours ago

January 7, 2025

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UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century

UK long-term borrowing costs have hit their highest level since 1998.

The unwanted milestone for the Treasury’s coffers was reached ahead of an auction of 30-year bonds, known as gilts, this morning.

The yield – the effective interest rate demanded by investors to hold UK public debt – peaked at 5.21%.

At that level, it is even above the yield seen in the wake of the mini-budget backlash of 2022 when financial markets baulked at the Truss government’s growth agenda which contained no independent scrutiny from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

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The premium is up, market analysts say, because of growing concerns the Bank of England will struggle to cut interest rates this year.

Just two cuts are currently priced in for 2025 as investors fear policymakers’ hands could be tied by a growing threat of stagflation.

The jargon essentially covers a scenario when an economy is flatlining at a time of rising unemployment and inflation.

Growth has ground to a halt, official data and private surveys have shown, since the second half of last year.

Critics of the government have accused Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, of talking down the economy since taking office in July amid their claims of needing to fix a “£22bn black hole” in the public finances.

Both warned of a tough budget ahead. That first fiscal statement put businesses and the wealthy on the hook for £40bn of tax rises.

Corporate lobby groups have since warned of a hit to investment, pay growth and jobs to help offset the additional costs.

At the same time, consumer spending has remained constrained amid stubborn price growth elements in the economy.

Higher borrowing costs also reflect a rising risk premium globally linked to the looming return of Donald Trump as US president and his threats of universal trade tariffs.

The higher borrowing bill will pose a problem for Ms Reeves as she seeks to borrow more to finance higher public investment and spending.

Tuesday’s auction saw the Debt Management Office sell £2.25bn of 30-year gilts to investors at an average yield of 5.198%.

It was the highest yield for a 30-year gilt since its first auction in May 1998, Refinitiv data showed.

This extra borrowing could mean Ms Reeves is at risk of breaking the spending rules she created for herself, to bring down debt, and so she may have less money to spend, analysts at Capital Economics said.

“There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on 26 March. To maintain fiscal credibility, this may mean that Ms Reeves is forced to tighten fiscal policy further,” said Ruth Gregory, the deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

Business

Growing threat to finances from rising bills

Published

9 hours ago

January 7, 2025

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There is mounting evidence that consumers are facing hikes to bills on many fronts after Next became the latest to warn of price rises ahead.

Business

Higher prices for 2025 as Christmas trading fails to meet expectations – BRC says

Published

15 hours ago

January 7, 2025

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Higher prices for 2025 as Christmas trading fails to meet expectations - BRC says

Shop prices will rise in 2025 as the key Christmas trading period failed to meet retailers’ expectations, according to industry data.

Shop sales grew just 0.4% in the so-called golden quarter, the critical three shopping months from October to December, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and big four accounting company KPMG.

Many retailers rely on trade during this period to see them through tougher months such as January and February. Some make most of their yearly revenue over Christmas.

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The minimal growth came amid weak consumer confidence and difficult economic conditions, the lobby group said, and “reflected the ongoing careful management of many household budgets”, KPMG’s UK head of consumer, retail and leisure Linda Ellett said.

Non-food sales were the worst hit in the four weeks up to 28 December, figures from the BRC showed and were actually less than last year, contracting 1.5%.

What were people buying?

Food sales grew 3.3% across all of 2024, compared to 2023.

In the festive period beauty products, jewellery and electricals did well, the BRC’s chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

AI-enabled tech and beauty advent calendars boosted festive takings, Ms Ellett said.

What it means for next year

With employer costs due to rise in April as the minimum wage and employers’ national insurance contributions are upped, businesses will face higher wage bills.

The BRC estimates there is “little hope” of covering these costs through higher sales, so retailers will likely push up prices and cut investment in stores and jobs, “harming our high streets and the communities that rely on them”, Ms Dickinson said.

Separate figures from high street bank Barclays showed card spending remained flat since December 2023, while essential spending fell 3% partly as inflation concerns forced consumers to cut back but also through lower fuel costs.

The majority of those surveyed by the lender (86%) said they were concerned about rising food costs and 87% were concerned about household bills.

More info to come

Numerous UK retail giants will update shareholders on their Christmas performance this week including high street bellwether Next on Tuesday, Marks and Spencer and Tesco on Thursday and Sainsbury’s on Friday.