Kazakhstan’s ability to diversify its seaborne crude oil export routes away from Russian territory is critical to the country’s economy, the developer of an alternative port told CNBC.
“I believe it’s less political, more existential question, and we hope that also international community is going to support that initiative to have alternative routes in order to minimize the effects of any supply shortages,” Nurzhan Marabayev, CEO of Kazakh infrastructure investor Semurg Invest, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy and Hadley Gamble.
His company has been working to develop the Kuryk port on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea — a project that includes a bulk cargo terminal, designed for the transshipment of oil, bulk oil cargo and liquefied petroleum gas.
Once complete, the port could provide an alternative to Kazakhstan’s main seaborne crude oil export route, which currently transports volumes across Russian territory via the 1,511-kilometer (939-mile) Caspian Pipeline Corporation’s pipeline, for later shipment from the CPC terminal near Russian port Novorossiysk.
Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, concerns have mounted that Kazakhstan’s reliance on cooperation with Russia — with whom Kazakhstan shares a 7,644-kilometer (4,750 miles) border and a history of close political alignment — could endanger its oil supplies. Exports from the CPC terminal were intermittently disrupted in 2022, with Russia citing technical and regulatory issues. This included a delay in the port’s restart after storm damage, while Russian technical watchdog Rostekhnadzor carried out an unscheduled inspection, and a brief and unenforced Russian court ruling for CPC to halt exports for 30 days.
“Approximately 95% of oil is going through Russian territory, and we have seen some disturbance last year, and actually … it’s quite a threat to the Kazakhstan economy, because we are depending on the oil revenues,” Marabayev told CNBC on Wednesday.
“In the event that Russia takes countermeasures in response to existing sanctions related to its military actions in Ukraine, it is possible that the transportation of Kazakhstan oil through the CPC pipeline could be disrupted, curtailed, temporarily suspended, or otherwise restricted,” the company said, warning of a “loss in cash flows of uncertain duration” under such circumstances. ExxonMobil’s after-tax earnings linked to its Kazakh interests were roughly $2.5 billion in 2022.
Kazakhstan is the second largest producer of the non-OPEC contingent of the OPEC+ coalition and has typically aligned itself with Russia in the group’s petropolitics. Kazakh output slipped to 1.66 million barrels per day in January, according to the February issue of the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report.
The country has been studying potential alternative transport routes beyond Moscow’s borders, including the possibility of sending oil shipments via Azerbaijan’s Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and through the incomplete Kuryk port project.
“Major infrastructure has been done, but still we need more support and attention to the port in order to fast-track the development of the private terminals,” Marabayev said. Development began in 2010, with operations starting six years ago.
U.S. outreach
Russia and Kazakhstan have historically observed a tight alliance, with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last year calling on the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization to send paratroopers into Kazakh territory after nationwide protests erupted over fuel price increases.
But Russia’s war in Ukraine has stranded Kazakhstan in a precarious balancing act between Western powers and the Moscow administration of Vladimir Putin. Tokayev deepened engagement with Washington during the Tuesday visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who repeatedly stressed that the U.S. backed Kazakhstan’s “territorial integrity.”
“Ever since being the first nation to recognize Kazakhstan in December of 1991, the United States has been firmly committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Kazakhstan – and countries across the region,” Blinken said.
“In our discussions today, I reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Kazakhstan, like all nations, to freely determine its future, especially as we mark one year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a failed attempt to deny its people that very freedom.”
Russian flows
The world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia has found its footing in the crude markets destabilized by EU and G-7 sanctions implemented against its seaborne exports of crude oil and oil products in December and February, respectively. Kazakh oil has been exempted from the measures despite transiting and exiting a port on Russian grounds.
The G-7 has put in place a scheme that allows Western providers to facilitate critical financial and shipping services to non-G-7 countries that purchase Russian volumes below a specific price. Moscow has repeatedly denounced this measure and threatened to deny its crude and oil products to those who observe such a price cap.
The withdrawal has pressured its production levels, which the IEA pegged down to 9.77 million barrels per day in January. Moscow announced it would reduce crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in March.
Russia has also been pushed farther into the Asia markets, now primarily relying on Chinese and Indian purchases:
“I think Russia, effectively, is an Asian nation by now. I think India and China will, for a long period, be the main buyers of Russia. It’s going to become the new norm,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
“I think that’s going to be the end result Russia out of Europe, Russia perennially into Asia, there’s going to be new links into those countries, and that’s pretty much it.”
Yup, Mullen Automotive [Nasdaq: MULN] is still here! And the EV company is defying the naysayers, reporting progress in EV sales, and reducing its monthly burn rate. Following Mullen Automotive’s significant strides in expanding its EV presence and improving its financial health in the last few weeks, Electrek caught up with David Michery, CEO and chairman of Mullen Automotive, who told us what trends he thinks 2025 will see for EV owners and others in the EV market.
After 2024 saw breakthroughs in tech, affordability, and adoption, Michery predicts this year will see even more disruption, transforming transportation and logistics on a massive scale. Here’s what to watch for this year.
EV total cost of ownership falls sharply
“Even if the federal EV tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act is repealed, EVs will become more affordable through state-level incentives, manufacturer subsidies, and private partnerships. The investment case for electrification is simply too strong for the private sector to ignore.
“Reduced battery costs, cheaper maintenance, and lower energy expenses will make EVs increasingly attractive to businesses and consumers. Charging infrastructure programs and fleet retrofitting will also help organizations navigate the upfront costs with the goal of long-term savings.
“The result is a financial tipping point: EVs will no longer just be environmentally compelling – they will also be the most cost-effective choice.”
Commercial EVs expand their use cases
“If 2024 was any indication, 2025 will bring new use cases for EVs. Transportation and delivery will likely continue to reign supreme, but the customizable nature of EVs means that we can expect more specialized use cases such as airport shuttles, university campus logistics, home services, and refrigerated delivery.
“Airports will adopt EV cargo vans for quieter, cleaner transit and delivery between terminals, while universities will electrify campus logistics to align with sustainability goals. Innovations in temperature-controlled EVs will expand the reach of refrigerated deliveries, cutting emissions in cold-chain logistics. And this is cause for celebration.
“New use cases mean more widespread adoption – and recognition that electrification is the best way forward.”
(Editor’s note: This is the business that Mullen Automotive is in, and he’s not wrong.)
2025 will be the year of the battery
“EV batteries are poised for immense improvement in the coming year. Solid-state polymer batteries – an innovation that significantly expands battery lifespan and thus widens range – are currently in road testing.
“Offering higher energy density and faster charging, these new batteries will make EVs more reliable and competitive with internal combustion vehicles as compared to other electric alternatives.
“Plus, better range and more efficient energy consumption will undoubtedly translate to lower maintenance costs for fleet owners.”
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Although Toyota bZ4X sales nearly doubled last year, the auto giant is still falling behind in the US EV market. Overseas rivals like Hyundai and Kia are lapping Toyota. Even other Japanese automakers, including Honda and Nissan, are selling more EVs in the US than Toyota.
Toyota bZ4X sales lagged behind US EV rivals in 2024
Toyota boasted that its 2024 electrified vehicle sales reached over 1 million in the US in 2024. However, that’s primarily thanks to its hybrid models.
With just 1,854 bZ4X models sold in December, Toyota’s 2024 total reached 18,570. Although that number is up 99% from the 9,329 sold in 2023, it’s still far behind the competition.
To put it in perspective, Honda, which began delivering its electric Prologue last March, sold over 33,000 models last year. In December, Honda sold nearly 7,900 Prologues alone. During the second half of 2024, Honda sold an average of over 5,000 electric SUVs per month.
Nissan also outsold Toyota with nearly 19,800 Ariya electric SUVs sold last year. Nissan’s decade-old LEAF secured another 11,226 sales in the US in 2024, up 57% year-over-year.
Kia’s first three-row electric SUV, the EV9, outsold the bZ4X last year despite a +$10,000 higher MSRP. After deliveries began in late 2023, Kia sold over 22,000 EV9 models in the US last year.
After setting new US sales records last year, Hyundai and Kia are aggressively aiming for more EV market share in 2025. Hyundai began production at its massive new EV plant in Georgia, where it will produce new EVs like the upgraded 2025 IONIQ 5 and three-row IONIQ 9.
With Kia building EV9 models at its West Point plant and the Genesis Electrified GV70 built in Alabama, Hyundai Motor has five EV models that qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit for the first time, which should boost demand further.
Toyota slashed 2025 bZ4X prices by $6,000 to make it more competitive. Starting at $37,070, the 2025 bZ4X undercuts the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 ($42,500) and Nissan Ariya ($39,770).
Although Honda has yet to release 2025 Prologue prices, it’s expected to start much higher. The 2024 Honda Prologue starts at $47,400.
Electrek’s Take
Like several others, Toyota pushed back major EV projects, including its first three-row electric SUV. The delay gave overseas rivals, like Hyundai and Kia, an opportunity, which they gladly took advantage of.
Toyota also scrapped plans to build new Lexus electric SUVs in North America. Instead, the new Lexus EV models will be imported from Japan.
The company is preparing to start battery production at its new $13.9 billion facility in NC, which should help ramp up EV sales. In the first half of 2026, it will also begin building the larger electric SUV at its Georgetown, Kentucky, plant.
The Japanese auto giant is still promising advanced new EV batteries are coming soon with significantly more range and faster charging at a lower cost. But when will they actually hit the market?
Toyota has been vowing to launch new EV battery technology for years. By 2027, the company plans to launch a pair of new Performance and Popularized batteries, which will enable a nearly 500-mile (800-km) WLTP range. In 2028, Toyota plans to launch solid-state EV batteries with mass production in 2030.
Will it be enough? Or is Toyota already too late to the party? Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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Volkswagen has identified a solution for its ID.4 recall and is ready to start producing post-recall ID.4s, with sales restarting now or soon at a dealership near you.
In September, VW identified a problem with its ID.4 EVs which resulted in a recall of almost 100k vehicles. Apparently, the door handles could leak and allow water into the circuit board controlling the handle, leading to the doors opening unexpectedly.
At the time, VW said the production halt could last until the beginning of next year (so, it’s just about on schedule) and resulted in about 200 workers being furloughed for the time being.
Now, three months later, the fix is ready and has been installed in some cars, with more heading out to dealers and being installed at VW’s factory in Tennessee as well.
Sales started back up this week, with dealerships applying the fix to some of their cars already. A local dealer told us that they’ve applied the fix to about 10% of their inventory so far, and that some cars have already been sold this week. So if you were looking for an ID.4, you should be able to find one in a local dealer now or soon.
The cars affected are model year 2021-2024 ID.4s. Owners should receive notifications from VW soon to get fixes applied to their vehicles – but there was never a stop-drive on the vehicles, so owners can continue driving their cars until the fix is applied.
Update: VW has now officially announced that the ID.4 is back on sale, with production starting in coming weeks “with the aim of re-instating the ID.4 to its prior position as one of the best-selling electric vehicles in the U.S. and Canada.”
We’ve also obtained a copy of the letter being sent out to owners, which claims the repair will take about 4 hours, free of charge.
Prior to the recall, ID.4 sales had been down significantly for the year. Despite a big update to the 2024 model year vehicles which fixed some issues owners had and added a bunch of big improvements, the model seemed not to capture the imagination of the American public. Even though EV sales are rising, the ID.4 had experienced one of the highest drops in sales of any model.
But this is a bit puzzling, because the ID.4 is a competent vehicle. Especially after those aforementioned fixes, I was quite impressed by this model year. It’s a good choice for someone who just wants a reasonable vehicle with a good amount of space. And Electrek’s very own Michelle Lewis has one and loves it.
That said, three months always felt a little slow for this fix. While VW did say that the production pause and stop sale would last until the end of the year, it’s not like door handles are a new thing, and VW certainly has made plenty of vehicles over the years. We can’t help but wonder if the aforementioned down sales year might have contributed to a lack of urgency.
But, now that process is done and VW is ready to start 2025 strong with a car ready to go (and, as our local dealer reminded us, the ID.BUZZ just started selling last month, so now you’ve got multiple EV options from VW).
To contact a local dealer and see if they have any VW ID.4s ready to sell, feel free to use our link. You can also reach out about the ID.Buzz, if a quirky electric minivan is more your speed.
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