The Russia-Ukraine war remapped the world’s energy supplies, putting the U.S. at the top for years to come
An LNG import terminal at the Rotterdam port in February 2022.
Federico Gambarini | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine a year ago has shifted global energy supply chains and put the U.S. clearly at the top of the world’s energy exporting nations.
As Europe struggled with threats to its supply of natural gas imports from Russia, U.S. exporters and others scrambled to divert cargoes of liquified natural gas from Asia to Europe. Russian oil has been sanctioned, and the European Union no longer accepts Moscow’s seaborne cargoes. That has resulted in a surge in U.S. crude and refined product shipments to Europe.
“The U.S. used to supply a military arsenal. Now it supplies an energy arsenal,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
Not since the aftermath of World War II has the U.S. been so important as an energy exporter. Weekly data from the Energy Information Administration shows a record 11.1 million barrels of crude and refined product exports in the week ended Feb. 24. That is more than the total output of either Saudi Arabia or Russia, according to Citigroup.
Exports averaged about 10 million barrels a day over the four week period ended Feb. 24. That compares with 7.6 million barrels a day a year ago.
“It’s amazing to think of all those decades of concern about energy dependence to find the U.S. is the largest exporter of LNG and one of the largest exporters of oil. The U.S. story is part of a larger remapping of world energy,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global. “What we’re seeing now is a continuing redrawing of world energy that began with the shale revolution in the United States. … In 2003, the U.S. expected to be the largest importer of LNG.”
Yergin said the changing role of the U.S. oil and gas industry in the world energy order will be a topic of conversation among the thousands attending the annual CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston March 6-10. Among the speakers at the conference are CEOs from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Baker Hughes and Freeport McMoRan, among others.
“One of the ironies, from an energy perspective, is if you only looked straight back, where we were the day before the invasion … if you look at price, you would say not much has happened,” said Daniel Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “The price of global natural gas spiked but came back down. Oil is lower than where it was before the invasion. … The reality is we certainly have set in motion a rejiggering of global supply chains, particularly on the natural gas side.”
According to the Department of Energy, the U.S. has been an annual net total energy exporter since 2018. Up to the early 1950s, the U.S. produced most of the energy it consumed, but in the mid-1950s the nation began to increasingly import greater amounts of crude and petroleum products.
U.S. energy imports totaled about 30% of total U.S. consumption in 2005.
“There’s a global LNG boom that has become much more apparent and visible to the market,” said Pickering. “We’ve shifted around who consumes what kind of crude and products. We’ve meaningfully changed where Russian oil moves to.”
India and China are now the biggest importers of Russia’s crude. “You look at those things, and to me, we very clearly adjusted the way the world is thinking about supply for the next four or five years.”
But a year ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not clear the world would have sufficient supply or that oil prices would not spike to sharply higher levels. That is particularly true in Europe, where supplies have been sufficient.
oil
RBC commodities strategists said there were a number of factors at play that helped Europe get by this winter.
“A combination of warm weather, mandated conservation measures, and additional supplies from alternative producers such as the United States, Norway and Qatar, helped stave off such a worst-case scenario for Europe this winter,” the strategists wrote. “Countries that had relied on low cost Russian gas to meet their economic needs, such as Germany, raced to build new LNG import infrastructure to prepare for a future free from Moscow’s molecules.”
But they also point out that Europe is not in the clear, especially if the military conflict continues. “Key gas producers have warned that it could be difficult for Europe to build storage this summer in the absence of Russian gas exports and a colder winter next year could cause considerable economic hardship,” they added.
Qatar has promised to send more gas to Europe, and the U.S. is building out more capacity. “In gas, we’re going to be a very real player. We’re trustworthy. We have rule of law. We have significant resources, and our projects are reasonably quick, compared to a lot of other potential projects around the world,” said Pickering. “My guess is we will go from [capacity of] 12 [billion cubic feet] of exports a day to close to 20, and we will be a big supplier to Europe.”
Pickering said U.S. exports are currently around 10 Bcf a day.
Among the companies he finds attractive in the gas sector are EQT, Cheniere, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy.
The oil story is different. Pickering said the U.S. industry chose not to be the global swing producer. “We’re not the swing producer because we decided not to be with our capital discipline,” he said.
Energy companies now have earnings visibility they did not have before, and that could be the case for another five years or so, Pickering said. Oil companies have not been overproducing, as they had in the past, and they did not jump in to crank up production despite calls from the White House in the past year.
The White House has also been critical of the energy industry’s share repurchase programs, which many have.
“They’re generating a lot of cash. They’re being rewarded by shareholders for being disciplined with that cash,” Pickering said. “You did see companies signal their optimism, like with Chevron’s $75 billion share repurchase.”
“The Russia, Ukraine dynamic may have ushered in an era where it’s cool to bash big oil, but my expectation is you can bash all the way to the bank and the political dynamic is very different than the financial and economic dynamic,” he said.
The U.S. now produces about 12.3 million barrels of oil a day, and Pickering does not expect that number to race higher. Producer discipline has helped support their share prices. The S&P energy sector is up 18% over the past 12 months, the best performing sector and one of just three of 11 sectors that are showing gains. The next best was industrials, up 1.7%.
“Our absolute production levels are as high as they’ve been when you combine oil and natural gas. We were a net importer, and we’ve dramatically reduced that. It’s a massive shift,” said Pickering. “The shale boom benefited the energy sector. It benefited U.S. consumers. It was a terrible stretch for producers. They did their jobs too well. They overproduced. When we went from 5 million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day, we were taking the most barrels away from OPEC. That was when we were most influential. We were the swing producer.”
Donald Trump signed two executive orders today that walked back parts of tariffs he previously imposed on US automakers ahead of a rally in Michigan to mark his first 100 days in office.
The Wall Street Journal first reported today in an exclusive that Trump was “expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs and easing some levies on car parts.”
Trump signed an executive order making sure the 25% tariffs on vehicles and certain auto parts won’t stack on top of existing aluminum, steel, or Canada and Mexico tariffs. He also gave automakers a credit to help blunt the impact of the 25% duties on imported parts that go into US-built cars.
Trump’s backpedal comes after weeks of meeting with automaker executives, and a week after a coalition that included GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai sent a letter urging him to drop tariffs on foreign auto parts due to land in May.
American Automotive Policy Council (AAPC) president Matt Blunt today said in response to the executive orders, “American Automakers Ford, GM, and Stellantis appreciate the administration’s clarification that tariffs will not be layered on top of the existing Section 232 tariffs on autos and auto parts. Applying multiple tariffs to the same product or part was a significant concern for American automakers, and we are glad to see this addressed. We will review the details of the executive order closely to assess how effectively it will mitigate the impact of tariffs on American automakers, our domestic supply chains and ultimately American consumers.” The AAPC represents Ford, GM, and Stellantis.
Electrek’s Take
The 25% auto tariffs implemented under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act aren’t going anywhere, and most economists say that tariffs will raise car prices and slow auto sales. This White House Fact Sheet is titled, “President Donald J. Trump Incentivizes Domestic Automobile Production.” Where’s the incentive? US automakers are just getting hit with the stick once instead of twice, and they’re thanking Trump for it.
The carrot that worked as an incentive was Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, along with the stability that came with it. All this whiplash is terrible for the US and global economy.
Read more: Killing IRA EV tax credits will ruin US EV and battery industries – Princeton study
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New data suggests that the Tesla Powerwall 3 is significantly disrupting the US solar inverter market.
The home battery pack’s integrated inverter is changing the game.
Tesla acquired its solar business when it bought SolarCity in a controversial deal due to Musk being a large shareholder of both Tesla and SolarCity, and Musk’s cousin led the latter.
The automaker kept the SolarCity operations going for a few years. In fact, it continued until after Tesla shareholders sued Musk over the acquisition, and Musk defended himself by claiming that SolarCity had become an integral part of Tesla.
Shortly after he won the lawsuit, Tesla virtually stopped all operations that came from its SolarCity acquisition, which primarily consisted of residential solar financing and installations.
Tesla even stopped reporting solar deployment. The company’s energy business now consists almost entirely of Powerwall and Megapack deployments.
However, the launch of the Powerwall 3 has indirectly brought Tesla back into the solar business, as the home battery pack features an inverter that works for both solar and storage applications.
EnergySage is a company that matches solar installers with potential buyers, and as a result, it has a wealth of interesting data about the solar industry in the US. Today, it released its Spring 2025 Marketplace report.
In the report, EnergySage revealed that Tesla became the second-most quoted inverter brand in the second half of last year:
Tesla became the most quoted battery brand in H2 2024, occupying 63% of Marketplace share nationwide. Because the Powerwall 3 includes an integrated inverter, Tesla also became the second-most quoted inverter brand. With batteries increasingly being added to solar systems—the national battery attachment rate jumped to 45% in H2 2024, an all-time high—Tesla’s growth was a key driver of the low storage and solar prices seen on EnergySage. In 2025, we are examining whether brand backlash and equipment shortages will affect Tesla’s Marketplace share.
This is also a byproduct of the increased popularity of energy storage systems when deploying new solar systems.
In big solar markets like California and Texas, the majority of residential solar quotes are attached to batteries, and Tesla is not the top quoted brand, thanks to Powerwall 3:
Powerwall was already the preferred home battery pack for many homeowners, and the fact that it now includes a solar inverter has made it even more attractive, as most home energy storage systems in the US are being deployed along with rooftop solar.
The Powerwall 3’s solar inverter integration is pushing solar plus storage costs down quite a bit.
The popularity of the Powerwall 3 has particularly hurt Enphase, a leader in solar inverter. It had 73% of the US market in 2022, and now it is down to 53%.
Despite Tesla driving prices down, Powerwall 3 is not the cheapest battery pack available. Panasonic and EG4 batteries were both priced lower on a per kWh basis than Tesla’s in the second half of 2024, but Tesla won on cost when also replacing the solar inverter.
However, it’s not all good news from Tesla. EnergySage also recently reported an increase in customers requesting alternatives to Powerwalls in 2025, partly due to Elon Musk’s increasing controversy.
If you’re interested in installing solar panels and/or batteries for your home, we recommend using EnergySage. You will be able to get quotes without any hassle and only talk to someone when you are ready to move forward. Within minutes, you can get on the path to producing your own power with solar and battery storage, including with Powerwall.
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Here’s something most people don’t know: In the US, switching to solar and battery-based energy can actually save you money on taxes. And it’s not a future promise – it’s happening right now. Under the US Residential Clean Energy Credit, BLUETTI’s eligible solar systems and home batteries qualify for a 30% federal tax credit through 2032. That means with the right model, like the AC500 Home Battery Backup, you’re not only saving on electricity, you could also get a portion of your purchase back during tax season.
Meanwhile, gas generators are quietly costing more
There’s a reason so many people have relied on gas generators: they’re familiar, accessible, and have served us well for years. But as fuel prices continue to rise and usage becomes more frequent, the hidden costs of gas generators are quietly piling up:
- Ongoing fuel expenses, especially during summer or storm seasons
- Routine maintenance and part replacements
- Stricter regulations in certain areas limiting usage times
- Noise complaints and environmental concerns
It’s not about shaming these tools—it’s about recognizing when the cost-to-benefit ratio starts to shift.
Not ready to give up your generator? Start small with the BLUETTI AC60
The move to clean energy doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Sometimes, the right first step is simply trying a lightweight alternative, like the AC60 Portable Power Station (Pioneer 50).
- Compact and powerful: 600W output (1000W surge) covers most outdoor needs
- Historically affordable: Only $269 after subsidy
- Fast charging: 80% charge within an hour
- IP65-rated for water and dust resistance – ideal for outdoor life
- Backed by a 6-year warranty, cutting down on waste and replacement costs
- Expandable to 2,015Wh capacity for powering phones, laptops, and more
Whether you’re into camping, road trips, or just want something for light backup at home, portable power stations like AC60 are an easy way to test the waters – no big commitment needed.
Need something stronger? Apex 300 is built to last
For those looking to level up their home battery backup or long-term savings, the Apex 300 offers a durable, future-forward alternative. With second-gen EV-grade batteries rated for 6,000+ cycles, this power station can last up to 17 years – nearly twice as long as typical models.
More reasons why Apex 300 stands out:
- Ultra-efficient 20W AC idle drain extends fridge runtime by up to 24 hours and boosts CPAP usage by 2.5x compared to typical units
- Built-in 120V/240V dual output with 12,000W bypass that powers 99% of home appliances, even a Tesla EV
- 2-year savings sprint when paired with one Solar X 4K Charge Controller for a massive 6400W solar input
- Whisper-quiet at 40dB, no fumes, no fuel
- Time-of-use savings made easy: Easily schedule and monitor energy usage with a user-friendly app and a clear, intuitive LED screen
- Expandable ecosystem: Add extra B300K batteries or a smart 700W Hub D1 to grow your setup as your needs evolve, from whole-home backup to off-grid RV power
This isn’t about replacing your gas generator overnight. It’s about introducing a better Plan B that’s cleaner, quieter, and built for the long haul.
Thinking about a cleaner future? BLUETTI is offering a little help
In honor of Earth Day, BLUETTI has launched a new Clean Energy Incentive Program. Gas generator owners around the world can submit basic info about their devices and select a clean power product to receive an exclusive subsidy.
The compact AC60 and other select models are already available at subsidized prices through BLUETTI’s Clean Energy Incentive Program – a practical step designed to support a smoother, more affordable transition to greener living.
Meanwhile, early access to the all-new Apex 300 Portable Power Station is now open through May 19, ahead of its official launch on May 20 on Indiegogo.
Going green isn’t about rushing
It’s about small, thoughtful choices that build toward something better – for your home, your wallet, and the planet. BLUETTI believes real change happens step by step, just like the LAFF (Light An African Family) Initiative. By walking the same path as those in need, the team can better understand and manage which solutions will most effectively help families who need affordable, sustainable energy.
So even if your gas generator still works just fine, it might be worth looking at a smarter backup. The future doesn’t have to be all-or-nothing. It can start with one quiet step with BLUETTI’s solutions, and this simple step could lead to a brighter, more sustainable future for everyone.
About BLUETTI
BLUETTI is a dedicated advocate for sustainability, integrating ESG principles throughout product design and corporate initiatives. Through impactful projects like LAAF (Light An African Family), BLUETTI provides affordable, sustainable energy solutions to communities across Africa. By partnering with Leave No Trace, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, BLUETTI supports responsible outdoor recreation through clean energy solutions that minimize environmental footprints. This blend of craftsmanship, reliability, and a focus on real-world needs is what makes BLUETTI trusted in over 110 countries and regions.
Follow BLUETTI on Twitter/X here and on Facebook here.
All photos: BLUETTI
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