The Russia-Ukraine war remapped the world’s energy supplies, putting the U.S. at the top for years to come
An LNG import terminal at the Rotterdam port in February 2022.
Federico Gambarini | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine a year ago has shifted global energy supply chains and put the U.S. clearly at the top of the world’s energy exporting nations.
As Europe struggled with threats to its supply of natural gas imports from Russia, U.S. exporters and others scrambled to divert cargoes of liquified natural gas from Asia to Europe. Russian oil has been sanctioned, and the European Union no longer accepts Moscow’s seaborne cargoes. That has resulted in a surge in U.S. crude and refined product shipments to Europe.
“The U.S. used to supply a military arsenal. Now it supplies an energy arsenal,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
Not since the aftermath of World War II has the U.S. been so important as an energy exporter. Weekly data from the Energy Information Administration shows a record 11.1 million barrels of crude and refined product exports in the week ended Feb. 24. That is more than the total output of either Saudi Arabia or Russia, according to Citigroup.
Exports averaged about 10 million barrels a day over the four week period ended Feb. 24. That compares with 7.6 million barrels a day a year ago.
“It’s amazing to think of all those decades of concern about energy dependence to find the U.S. is the largest exporter of LNG and one of the largest exporters of oil. The U.S. story is part of a larger remapping of world energy,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global. “What we’re seeing now is a continuing redrawing of world energy that began with the shale revolution in the United States. … In 2003, the U.S. expected to be the largest importer of LNG.”
Yergin said the changing role of the U.S. oil and gas industry in the world energy order will be a topic of conversation among the thousands attending the annual CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston March 6-10. Among the speakers at the conference are CEOs from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Baker Hughes and Freeport McMoRan, among others.
“One of the ironies, from an energy perspective, is if you only looked straight back, where we were the day before the invasion … if you look at price, you would say not much has happened,” said Daniel Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “The price of global natural gas spiked but came back down. Oil is lower than where it was before the invasion. … The reality is we certainly have set in motion a rejiggering of global supply chains, particularly on the natural gas side.”
According to the Department of Energy, the U.S. has been an annual net total energy exporter since 2018. Up to the early 1950s, the U.S. produced most of the energy it consumed, but in the mid-1950s the nation began to increasingly import greater amounts of crude and petroleum products.
U.S. energy imports totaled about 30% of total U.S. consumption in 2005.
“There’s a global LNG boom that has become much more apparent and visible to the market,” said Pickering. “We’ve shifted around who consumes what kind of crude and products. We’ve meaningfully changed where Russian oil moves to.”
India and China are now the biggest importers of Russia’s crude. “You look at those things, and to me, we very clearly adjusted the way the world is thinking about supply for the next four or five years.”
But a year ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not clear the world would have sufficient supply or that oil prices would not spike to sharply higher levels. That is particularly true in Europe, where supplies have been sufficient.
oil
RBC commodities strategists said there were a number of factors at play that helped Europe get by this winter.
“A combination of warm weather, mandated conservation measures, and additional supplies from alternative producers such as the United States, Norway and Qatar, helped stave off such a worst-case scenario for Europe this winter,” the strategists wrote. “Countries that had relied on low cost Russian gas to meet their economic needs, such as Germany, raced to build new LNG import infrastructure to prepare for a future free from Moscow’s molecules.”
But they also point out that Europe is not in the clear, especially if the military conflict continues. “Key gas producers have warned that it could be difficult for Europe to build storage this summer in the absence of Russian gas exports and a colder winter next year could cause considerable economic hardship,” they added.
Qatar has promised to send more gas to Europe, and the U.S. is building out more capacity. “In gas, we’re going to be a very real player. We’re trustworthy. We have rule of law. We have significant resources, and our projects are reasonably quick, compared to a lot of other potential projects around the world,” said Pickering. “My guess is we will go from [capacity of] 12 [billion cubic feet] of exports a day to close to 20, and we will be a big supplier to Europe.”
Pickering said U.S. exports are currently around 10 Bcf a day.
Among the companies he finds attractive in the gas sector are EQT, Cheniere, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy.
The oil story is different. Pickering said the U.S. industry chose not to be the global swing producer. “We’re not the swing producer because we decided not to be with our capital discipline,” he said.
Energy companies now have earnings visibility they did not have before, and that could be the case for another five years or so, Pickering said. Oil companies have not been overproducing, as they had in the past, and they did not jump in to crank up production despite calls from the White House in the past year.
The White House has also been critical of the energy industry’s share repurchase programs, which many have.
“They’re generating a lot of cash. They’re being rewarded by shareholders for being disciplined with that cash,” Pickering said. “You did see companies signal their optimism, like with Chevron’s $75 billion share repurchase.”
“The Russia, Ukraine dynamic may have ushered in an era where it’s cool to bash big oil, but my expectation is you can bash all the way to the bank and the political dynamic is very different than the financial and economic dynamic,” he said.
The U.S. now produces about 12.3 million barrels of oil a day, and Pickering does not expect that number to race higher. Producer discipline has helped support their share prices. The S&P energy sector is up 18% over the past 12 months, the best performing sector and one of just three of 11 sectors that are showing gains. The next best was industrials, up 1.7%.
“Our absolute production levels are as high as they’ve been when you combine oil and natural gas. We were a net importer, and we’ve dramatically reduced that. It’s a massive shift,” said Pickering. “The shale boom benefited the energy sector. It benefited U.S. consumers. It was a terrible stretch for producers. They did their jobs too well. They overproduced. When we went from 5 million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day, we were taking the most barrels away from OPEC. That was when we were most influential. We were the swing producer.”
Massachusetts is launching a first-of-its-kind statewide vehicle-to-everything (V2X) pilot program. This two-year initiative, backed by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MassCEC), aims to deploy 100 bidirectional chargers to homes, school buses, municipal, and commercial fleet participants across the state.
These bidirectional chargers will enable EVs to serve as mobile energy storage units, collectively providing an estimated 1.5 MW of new storage capacity. That means EVs won’t just be getting power – they’ll be giving it back to the grid, helping to balance demand and support renewable energy use. The program is also focused on ensuring that low-income and disadvantaged communities have access to this cutting-edge tech.
The Massachusetts pilot is one of the largest state-led V2X initiatives in the US and is designed to tackle key challenges in deploying bidirectional charging technology. By strategically placing these chargers in a variety of settings, the program aims to identify and resolve barriers to wider adoption of V2X technology.
Massachusetts EV owners and fleet operators enrolled in the program will get bidirectional chargers capable of both vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and backup power operations at no cost. Here’s what they stand to gain:
- No-cost charging infrastructure: Bidirectional charging stations and installation are fully covered for participants.
- Grid resilience: With an estimated 1.5 MW of new flexible and distributed storage assets, the program strengthens Massachusetts’ energy infrastructure.
- Clean energy integration: V2G technology allows EVs to charge when renewable energy is available and discharge stored energy when it’s not, supporting the state’s clean energy goals.
- Backup power: EV batteries can be used as backup power sources during outages.
- Revenue opportunities: Some participants can earn money by sending stored energy back to the grid.
Clean energy solutions firm Resource Innovations and vehicle-grid integration tech company The Mobility House are leading the program’s implementation. “With the charging infrastructure provided through this program, we’re eliminating financial barriers and enabling school districts, homeowners, and fleets to access reliable backup power,” said Kelly Helfrich of Resource Innovations. “We aim to create a scalable blueprint for V2X programs nationwide.”
“Bidirectional charging benefits vehicle owners by providing backup power and revenue opportunities while strengthening the grid for the entire community,” added Russell Vare of The Mobility House North America.
The program is open for enrollment now through June 2025. For more details, visit the MassCEC V2X Program webpage. A list of eligible bidirectional vehicles can be found on that page.
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Compton, California, has unveiled 25 new electric school buses – the school district’s first – and 25 Tellus 180 kW DC fast chargers.
Compton Unified School District (CUSD) in southern Los Angeles County is putting 17 Thomas Built Type A and eight Thomas Built Type C electric school buses on the road this spring. In addition to working with Thomas Built, CUSD also collaborated with electrification-as-a-service provider Highland Electric Fleet, utility Southern California Edison, and school transportation provider Durham School Services.
Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean School Bus Program awarded funds for the vehicles in the program’s first round. EPA also awarded CUSD funds for the third round of the program and anticipates introducing an additional 25 EV school buses in the future.
“I can’t stress enough how vital grants like these are and the need for continued support from our partners in government at the state and federal level to fund additional grants for school districts and their transportation partners that are ready to deliver and operate zero-emission buses,” said Tim Wertner, CEO of Durham School Services.
CUSD, which serves Compton and parts of the cities of Carson and Los Angeles, currently serves more than 17,000 students at 36 sites. The district has a high school graduation rate of 93% and an 88% college acceptance rate. One in 11 children in Los Angeles County have asthma, which makes the need for emissions-free school transportation that much more pressing.
Read more: Thomas Built Buses debuts its next-gen electric school bus
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After cutting lease prices by $200 this month, the Rivian R1S is now surprisingly affordable. It may even be a better deal than the new Tesla Model Y.
Rivian cuts R1S lease prices by $200 per month
Rivian’s R1S is one of the hottest electric SUVs on the market. If you haven’t checked it out yet, you’re missing out.
With some of the best deals to date, now may be the time. Rivian lowered R1S lease prices earlier this month to just $599 for 36 months, with $8,493 due at signing (30,000 miles). The offer is for the new 2025 R1S Adventure Dual Standard, which starts at $75,900.
Before the price cut, the R1S was listed at $799 per month, with $8,694 due at signing. The electric SUV now has the same lease price as the R1T, despite costing $6,000 more.
The 2025 R1T Dual Motor starts at $69,900, essentially making it a free $6,000 upgrade. At that price, you may even want to consider it over the new Tesla Model Y.
Tesla’s new Model Y Launch Series arrived with lease prices of $699 for 36 months. With $4,393 due at signing, the effective rate is $821 per month, or just $13 less than the R1S at $834. However, the 2025 R1S costs nearly $15,000 more, with the Model Y Launch Series price at $59,990.
Rivian is also offering an “All-Electric Upgrade Offer” of up to $6,000 for those looking to trade-in their gas-powered car, but base models are not included.
| Starting Price | Range (EPA-est.) |
|
| 2025 Rivian R1S Dual Standard | $75,900 | 270 miles |
| 2026 Tesla Model Y Launch Series | $59,990 | 327 miles |
To take advantage of the Rivian R1S lease deal, you must order it before March 15 and take delivery on or before March 31, 2025.
The 2025 Rivian R1S Dual Standard Motor has an EPA-estimated range of up to 270 miles. Tesla’s new Model Y Launch Series gets up to 327 miles.
Which electric SUV would you choose? Rivian’s R1S or the new Tesla Model Y? If you’re ready to check them out for yourself, you can use our links below to find deals on the Rivian R1S and Tesla Model Y in your area.
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