The Salisbury spy poisonings five years on: Did UK’s response change Putin’s pathway to invading Ukraine?
When Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were found unconscious on a bench in Salisbury city centre – five years ago to this day – few would have known that a huge diplomatic crisis was about to erupt.
Mr Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer turned British double agent, had been targeted with the deadly nerve agent novichok in an assassination attempt, which Western officials have since claimed leads all the way back to the Kremlin.
Though the pair survived the attack, Dawn Sturgess, a mother-of-three who came into contact with the nerve agent from a discarded perfume bottle, thought to have been used by the assassins to administer to the door handle of the Skripals’ home, later died from her exposure to the chemical.
The incident sparked a huge diplomatic row between the UK and Russia, which denied any involvement in the incident, even after UK intelligence forces shared details of two Russian men alleged to have carried out the attack.
Yulia and Sergei Skripal
Dawn Sturgess
A famously frosty meeting between the UK’s then-prime minister, Theresa May, and Russian president Vladimir Putin followed, while Britain expelled 23 diplomats and imposed some limited financial sanctions on assets that “threatened life or property”.
It was, at the time, the strongest response in relation to Putin’s Russia.
According to Keir Giles, an expert in security issues relating to Russia, it was also a significant step up from the “feeble response” to the poisoning of another former Russian agent, Alexander Litvinenko, in London in 2006.
Mr Giles, and senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, told Sky News: “The response to Salisbury was a success story for the UK. It was about as powerful as it could be.
“The UK managed to rally behind it huge solidarity from the West.”
Theresa May meets Vladimir Putin
He said one key decision which would have particularly troubled Putin was the naming and shaming of the two alleged assassins, Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, who both denied involvement.
“Putin would have likely hoped for these actions to have been undetected. Suddenly, everybody knows about it and there is no secrecy to it,” Mr Giles added.
Despite this, novichok was used again, against Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who fell ill during a flight to Moscow in 2020. He later recovered.
The UK’s response to the alleged Russian aggression also did little to dissuade Putin from launching an invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“The UK’s response would have had no effect on Putin’s conclusion and is independent of Russia’s situation with the invasion of Ukraine.
Alexander Litvinenko
“It is a completely different issue in Russia – because Salisbury is really about dealing with a former Russian intelligence officer in the UK.”
The war, he said, was instead about satisfying Putin’s longer-term ambition to restore Russia as an imperial power on the world stage.
However, he said the response to Salisbury would have had an impact, particularly on Putin’s confidence to attempt other similar assassinations in the UK.
“There are risks (to these incidents) and these would have to be weighed against the benefit of carrying out a successful attempt.
“The UK’s response to Salisbury would have raised that risk.”
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Theresa May says the men identified as suspects in the Salisbury poisonings are from Russia’s military intelligence service.
Professor Tomila Lankina, a professor of international relations at London School of Economics (LSE), who has analysed disinformation campaigns in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, also believes the UK’s strong response to the Salisbury poisonings would have surprised Putin.
“If you look at the Litvinenko poisoning, the responses should have been more robust, but I remember being impressed by the response to Salisbury,” she said.
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“Probably the kind of confidence Russia had to carry out the poisoning was preventable if the UK had more strong and forceful reactions to Russia’s past transgressions.
“But I remember being impressed by the response to Salisbury. I think it would have surprised Putin.”
Read more:
How the Salisbury poisoning unfolded – a timeline
Salisbury still affected by ‘trauma’ of novichok poisonings
Podcast: The poisoning five years on
But Professor Lankina, whose book The Estate Origins Of Democracy In Russia looks into the social structures of Russia, believes more could have been done.
“There was a dependency on Russian money, businesses who were advantaged and benefited from Russian money.”
She said she believed there was an indirect pathway between the events of the Litvinenko and Salisbury poisonings and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
However, she said this pathway would more likely have been broken if the West’s reaction was stronger in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Professor Svetlana Stephenson, a Russian-born academic living in the UK and working for London Metropolitan University, said she also believed the Salisbury poisonings were in part due to Russia believing it could act without serious repercussions.
“I don’t think that Russia would have wanted the incident to be detected. But when they did, the response was a tacit acknowledgement,” said Prof Stephenson, who has written critical articles about Putin in the country’s independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta.
“Part of that messaging was that ‘we can do what we like’.
“In Russia, it would have just been seen as a security services situation, simply Russians dealing with someone they regard as a traitor, rather than an attack on UK soil.”
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Putin boosting nuclear forces
Prof Stephenson believes, for this reason, that the Salisbury attack would have had little impact on Putin’s confidence in any confrontation with the West.
“When the war first started, I thought he looked quite depressed, and you sensed something unexpected had happened, but I think the war has emboldened him and he looks like this is now the new normal,” she added.
“There is some discontent in the cities, but in provincial Russia, people seem to support the war – and even mobilisation.
“But we can only go by what we see because there is no real opposition in Russia.”
UK
Ryland Headley: Man, 92, who raped and murdered Louisa Dunne in Bristol nearly 60 years ago, jailed for life
A 92-year-old man has been sentenced to life with a minimum term of 20 years in prison for the rape and murder of an elderly widow nearly 60 years ago.
Ryland Headley was found guilty on Monday of killing 75-year-old Louisa Dunne at her Bristol home in June 1967, in what is thought to be the UK’s longest cold case to reach trial, and has been told by the judge he “will die in prison”.
The mother-of-two’s body was found by neighbours after Headley, then a 34-year-old railway worker, forced his way inside the terraced house in the Easton area before attacking her.
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The UK’s longest cold case to reach trial
Police found traces of semen and a palm print on one of the rear windows inside the house – but it was about 20 years before DNA testing.
The case remained unsolved for more than 50 years until Avon and Somerset detectives sent off items from the original investigation and found a DNA match to Headley.
He had moved to Suffolk after the murder and served a prison sentence for raping two elderly women in 1977.
Prosecutors said the convictions showed he had a “tendency” to break into people’s homes at night and, in some cases, “target an elderly woman living alone, to have sex with her despite her attempts to fend him off, and to threaten violence”.
Louisa Dunne in 1933. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Headley during his arrest. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Headley, from Ipswich, who did not give evidence, denied raping and murdering Ms Dunne, but was found guilty of both charges after a trial at Bristol Crown Court.
Detectives said forces across the country are investigating whether Headley could be linked to other unsolved crimes.
Mrs Dunne’s granddaughter, Mary Dainton, who was 20 when her relative was killed, told the court that her murder “had a big impact on my mother, my aunt and her family.
“I don’t think my mother ever recovered from it. The anxiety caused by her mother’s brutal rape and murder clouded the rest of her life.
“The fact the offender wasn’t caught caused my mother to become and remain very ill.
“When people found out about the murder, they withdrew from us. In my experience, there is a stigma attached to rape and murder.”
The front of Louisa Dunne’s home. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Louisa Dunne’s skirt. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Finding out her grandmother’s killer had been caught after almost six decades “turned my life upside down,” she said.
“I feel sad and very tired, which has affected the relationships I have with those close to me. I didn’t expect to deal with something of such emotional significance at this stage of my life.
“It saddens me deeply that all the people who knew and loved Louisa are not here to see that justice has been done.”
Palmprint images. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
After her statement, Mr Justice Sweeting told Mrs Dainton: “It is not easy to talk about matters like this in public.
“Thank you very much for doing it in such a clear and dignified way.”
The judge told Headley his crimes showed “a complete disregard for human life and dignity.
“Mrs Dunne was vulnerable, she was a small elderly woman living alone. You treated her as a means to an end.
“The violation of her home, her body and ultimately her life was a pitiless and cruel act by a depraved man.
“She must have experienced considerable pain and fear before her death,” he said.
Sentencing Headley to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 20 years, the judge told him: “You will never be released, you will die in prison.”
Detective Inspector Dave Marchant of Avon and Somerset Police said Headley was “finally facing justice for the horrific crimes he committed against Louisa in 1967.
“The impact of this crime has cast a long shadow over the city and in particular Louisa’s family, who have had to deal with the sadness and trauma ever since.”
The officer praised Ms Dainton’s “resilience and courage” during what he called a “unique” case and thanked investigators from his own force, as well as South West Forensics, detectives from Suffolk Constabulary, the National Crime Agency and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).
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Charlotte Ream, of the CPS, described Headley’s crimes as “appalling”.
She said Louisa Dunne “died in a horrifying attack carried out in the place where she should have felt safest – her own home.
“Mrs Dunne’s death continues to have a traumatic impact on her family members: the passage of time has not lessened their pain.
“For 58 years, this appalling crime went unsolved and Ryland Headley, the man we now know is responsible, avoided justice.”
Jeremy Benson KC, defending Headley, offered no personal mitigation on behalf of the defendant.
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Three managers at the hospital where Lucy Letby worked have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter.
They were in senior roles at the Countess of Chester Hospital in 2015 and 2016 and have been bailed pending further enquiries, Cheshire Constabulary said. Their names have not been made public.
Letby, 35, was found guilty of murdering seven children and attempting to murder seven more between June 2015 and June 2016 while working in the hospital’s neonatal unit.
Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes explained that gross negligent manslaughter focuses on the “action or inaction of individuals”.
There is also an investigation into corporate manslaughter at the hospital, which began in October 2023.
That focuses on “senior leadership and their decision-making”, Mr Hughes said. The intention there is to determine whether any “criminality has taken place concerning the response to the increased levels of fatalities”.
The scope was widened to include gross negligence manslaughter in March of this year.
Lucy Letby was found guilty of murdering seven children and attempting to murder seven more
Mr Hughes said it is “important to note” that this latest development “does not impact on the convictions of Lucy Letby for multiple offences of murder and attempted murder”.
He added: “Both the corporate manslaughter and gross negligence manslaughter elements of the investigation are continuing and there are no set timescales for these.
“Our investigation into the deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the neo-natal units of both the Countess of Chester Hospital and the Liverpool Women’s Hospital between the period of 2012 to 2016 is also ongoing.”
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A public inquiry has also been examining the hospital’s response to concerns raised about Letby before her arrest.
In May, it was announced the inquiry’s final report into how the former nurse was able to commit her crimes will now be published early next year.
Earlier this year, lawyers for Lucy Letby called for the suspension of the inquiry, claiming there was “overwhelming and compelling evidence” that her convictions were unsafe.
In February, an international panel of neonatologists and paediatric specialists told reporters that poor medical care and natural causes were the reasons for the collapses and deaths.
Their evidence has been passed to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), which investigates potential miscarriages of justice, and Letby’s legal team hopes her case will be referred back to the Court of Appeal.
As we pulled back the hospital curtain, he was hunched over and clearly in pain.
He had climbed off the hospital bed to greet us with a polite smile, then hobbled back to lie down again.
Every breath was uncomfortable, but he wanted to share the horrible reality of knife crime.
The young knife attack victim in Manchester
“I’ve never in my life been stabbed so I don’t know how it’s meant to even feel,” he said.
“The pain came when I realised the blood’s just spitting out of the side of my rib cage and that’s when I started panicking.
“My lungs felt like they were filled with blood… I thought each breath that I take, I’m going to drown in my own blood.
“I just felt as though I was slowly slipping away.”
Paramedics helped save his life and got him to the hospital in Manchester.
Sky News cannot name the young victim or go into the details of the attack because the police are investigating his case.
We were alongside a support worker called Favour, who is part of a growing team called Navigators. They go into hospitals to help young victims of violence.
While checking on how his recovery is going, she gently asked what he wanted to do next.
“You should have the right to feel safe,” she said to him.
“So don’t blame yourself for what happened… we are going to be there to help you.”
Favour talks with the victim
‘Scarring and traumatic’
In a corridor outside the major trauma ward at the Manchester Royal Infirmary, Favour said: “They are often scared, often really tired from being in hospital.
“It does stay with you, not just for a couple of weeks, but it can go on for months, years, because it is something very scarring and traumatic.
“Having someone to talk to, being able to be very vulnerable with… that can lead you to find different spaces that are safe for you, can make a huge difference.”
In the adjacent Children’s Hospital in Manchester, we met the clinical lead at the Greater Manchester Violence Reduction Unit.
Support worker Favour is part of a team called Navigators
Dr Rachel Jenner is a senior consultant who expanded her emergency department work into the wider mission of violence reduction after treating one particular young stab victim.
“When he arrived at the hospital, he was obviously very distressed and stressed,” she said. “A little bit later on, when things were stable, I asked him if he wanted me to call his mum.
“When I asked that question, he just kind of physically crumpled on the bed and just looked like the vulnerable child that he was, and that was really impactful for me.”
Dr Rachel Jenner
‘Positive results’
The Violence Reduction Unit was established in 2019 with a commitment from the city’s authorities to work together better to prevent violence and deal with it efficiently when it occurs.
Dr Jenner still treats young knife crime victims, but revealed the number of stab-related admissions is falling in her hospital.
“The trend is downwards,” she confirmed. “We’ve definitely seen some positive results.”
The latest statistics in England and Wales show the number of hospital admissions for assault by a sharp object fell by 3% to 3,735 admissions in the year ending September 2024.
“We’re never complacent,” Dr Jenner said. “You reality check yourself all the time, because obviously if… someone gets stabbed, then it’s quite possible that I’ll be treating them.”
She said the Navigators are crucial to working with young patients.
“They have a really different way of engaging with young people, they’re much better at it than many other professionals,” she said.
“It’s not a one-size-fits-all model, they actually wrap around that support according to circumstances… that’s a really positive improvement.”
Tacking violence ‘like infectious disease’
Dr Jenner added: “We try and take a public health approach to violence reduction. In the same way that we would address an infectious disease, if we can use those methods and principles to look at violence.
“Not just reacting when it happens, but actually looking at how we can prevent the disease of violence, that in the long term will have a bigger impact.”
The key is teamwork, Dr Jenner said. Collaboration between the police, community leaders, victim support, health workers and people in education has noticeably improved.
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Students practise stopping a bleed
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The hospital also sends consultants into schools to teach pupils how to stop bleeds as part of an annual nationwide initiative that reaches 50,000 young people.
At a Stop The Bleed session in Bolton, Greater Manchester, we met 11 and 12-year-olds growing up with the threat of knife crime.
One Year 7 boy said: “There was a stabbing quite near where I live so it does happen, but it’s very crucial to learn how to stop this bleed and how to stop deaths.”
Another two friends talked about a boy their age who had been involved in an incident with a knife.
“No one would expect it for someone that young,” one said. “They’re just new to high school, fresh out of primary, and they shouldn’t just be doing that, too young.”
Sanaa Karajada
‘We are dealing with it every day’
Their school has decided to tackle the problem of knife crime head-on rather than pretend it isn’t affecting their pupils.
The pastoral lead at the school, Sanaa Karajada, told Sky News: “We are dealing with it every single day, so we have policies and procedures in place to prevent any escalations in our schools or in the community.
“It is very, very worrying and it’s upsetting that [students] are having to go through this, but you know we’ve got to be realistic… if we are shying away from it, we’re just saying it’s not a problem.
“But it is a problem within the community, it’s a problem in all of the UK.”
The government has pledged to halve knife crime within a decade.
These signs of progress may offer some hope, but there is still so much work to do.
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