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The famous Prussian general Clausewitz famously opined: “No one starts a war or rather, no one in his senses should do so without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it”.

Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine over a year ago initiated a conflict that shows no sign of abating.

What does Putin seek to achieve, and how and when will this war end?

It would be easy to dismiss Putin’s invasion as reckless and irrational; however, Putin is a student of history – inspired by leaders such as Peter the Great and their territorial conquests – and having suffered the ignominy of the fall of the Soviet Union, he has made no secret of his desire to rebuild the former Soviet empire.

Ukrainian personnel pose with a flag on top of a Challenger 2 tank during a training at Bovington Camp, near Wool in southwestern Britain, February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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Ukrainian personnel pose with a flag on top of a Challenger 2 tank during training at Bovington Camp, near Wool

Despite the poor showing of the Russian military and the huge casualties sustained, Putin has always referred to the Ukraine invasion as a “Special Military Operation” (not a war), thus enabling him to claim even modest territorial gains as a strategic success.

Formally securing Crimea and a buffer zone (Donbas) between Russia and Ukraine (NATO), might appear modest ambitions given the original intent, but it is an important stepping stone towards Putin’s wider ambition.

To understand Putin’s motives, history provides some context.

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In November 1939, the Soviet Union felt vulnerable – Leningrad was only 20 miles from the Finnish border – and following a “false flag” operation, the Soviets invaded Finland, initiating the Winter War.

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Has Russia launched ‘false flag’ operation?

Despite superior military strength, the Soviets suffered huge casualties and their military performed badly.

The League of Nations (forerunner to the United Nations) declared the invasion illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from its ranks.

But, with Finnish forces exhausted and the Red Army badly mauled, just over three months later the Moscow Peace Treaty was eventually agreed.

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Finland ceded 9% of its territory, and the Soviets had achieved their objective – the parallels to Russia/Ukraine conflict are palpable.

When Hitler invaded Europe, as when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, defeating and deposing the aggressor was the only way to secure peace.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein stands by an Iraqi flag, January 17, 2002. On the 11th anniversary of the Gulf War, President Saddam Hussein said on Thursday his country was prepared for and would foil any fresh U.S. military attack against Iraq as part of a war against terrorism. REUTERS/INA/POOL fk/CRB

However, defeating and deposing Putin – with the risk of nuclear Armageddon – is not a credible objective.

Unless Russia is ejected entirely from Ukrainian soil (unlikely), Putin will claim a victory.

Read more:
What would Russian success mean for Western security?
Ukraine invasion has shattered Russia’s illusion of invincibility

When Putin judges that his military has culminated, expect him to seek a negotiated peace, with Ukraine – like Finland before ceding territory.

President Zelenskyy would never want to compromise given the immense national sacrifice to date.

However, the West knows its military support to Ukraine is time-limited, and risks perpetuating an unwinnable war.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a news conference on the first anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 24, 2023. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Publicly, western politicians will remain supportive, but privately expect growing pressure on Zelenskyy to end the conflict – a war Ukraine will struggle to win.

In return, the West will look to provide long-term security guarantees, and provide financial support to enable Ukraine to rebuild, with the potential to become one of the most modern and economically powerful nations in Europe – as Germany did following World War Two.

As the war enters its second year, the West risks perpetuating a conflict that Russia cannot lose and Ukraine cannot win; as a result, expect to see increasing international pressure for a negotiated end to hostilities.

The West then has to ensure that the long-term legacy of Russia’s decision to invade is so damaging that the strategic consequences far outweigh the immediate territorial gains.

Failure will risk further emboldening Russia (and indeed China), with huge implications for future global security.

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‘The capital is under attack’: Russian drones launched over Kyiv after Moscow targeted

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'The capital is under attack': Russian drones launched over Kyiv after Moscow targeted

Russia has launched a “massive” drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital overnight, after Moscow itself was targeted.

Amid flailing peace talks, the Kremlin’s nightly attacks on Ukraine continued.

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A large-scale Russian attack through the night into Sunday injured at least 11 in Kyiv and killed three people in towns surrounding the capital.

There were attacks elsewhere as well, including drone strikes in Mykolaiv, where a residential building was hit.

An apartment building destroyed after a Russian attack in Mykolaiv.
Pic: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Image:
An apartment building destroyed after a Russian attack in Mykolaiv. Pic: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

‘Massive’ attack

In Kyiv, the city’s administration warned “the night will be difficult”, as people were urged to remain in shelters.

The city’s mayor Vitaliy Klitschko described it as a “massive” attack.

He said: “Explosions in the city. Air defence forces are working. The capital is under attack by enemy UAVs. Do not neglect your safety! Stay in shelters!”

It came after at least 15 people were injured in attacks the night prior.

Russia claimed it also faced a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday, and that it intercepted and destroyed around 100 of them near Moscow and across Russia’s central and southern regions.

A municipality worker cleans up after a Russian drone strike on Kyiv.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
A municipality worker cleans up after a Russian drone strike on Kyiv. Pic: Reuters

Russia ‘dragging out the war’

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continued a prisoner exchange, marking a rare moment of cooperation in the war.

Amid the most recent attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeated his calls for sanctions on Russia.

Russia “fills each day with horror and murder” and is “simply dragging out the war”, he said.

A resident looks at an apartment building that was damaged in a Russian drone strike.
Pic: Reuters
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A resident looks at an apartment building that was damaged in a Russian drone strike. Pic: Reuters

“All of this demands a response – a strong response from the United States, from Europe, and from everyone in the world who wants this war to end,” Mr Zelenskyy added.

Every day “gives new grounds for sanctions against Russia”, he said, and each day without pressure proves the “war will continue”.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is ready for “any form of diplomacy that delivers real results”.

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Nine of Gazan doctor’s 10 children killed in Israeli strike on Khan Younis

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Nine of Gazan doctor's 10 children killed in Israeli strike on Khan Younis

Nine of a doctor’s 10 children have been killed in an Israeli missile strike on their home in Gaza, which also left her surviving son badly injured and her husband in a critical condition.

Warning: This article contains details of child deaths

Alaa Al Najjar, a paediatrician at Al Tahrir Clinic in the Nasser Medical Complex, was at work during the attack on her home, south of the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, on Friday.

Graphic footage shared by the Hamas-run Palestinian Civil Defence shows the bodies of at least seven small children being pulled from the rubble.

Rescuers can be seen battling fires and searching through a collapsed building, shouting out when they locate a body, before bringing the children out one by one and wrapping their remains in body bags.

In the footage, Dr Al Najjar’s husband, Hamdi Al Najjar, who is also a doctor, is put on to a stretcher and then carried to an ambulance.

The oldest of their children was only 12 years old, according to Dr Muneer Alboursh, the director general of Gaza’s health ministry, which is run by Hamas.

Rescuers removing the children's bodies from the rubble. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
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Nine children were killed in the strike. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence

“This is the reality our medical staff in Gaza endure. Words fall short in describing the pain,” he wrote in a social media post.

“In Gaza, it is not only healthcare workers who are targeted – Israel’s aggression goes further, wiping out entire families.”

Rescuers placing the children's bodies in a van. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
Image:
Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence

British doctors describe ‘horrific’ and ‘unimaginable’ attack

Two British doctors working at Nasser Hospital described the attack as “horrific” and “unimaginable” for Dr Al Najjar.

Speaking in a video diary on Friday night, Dr Graeme Groom said his last patient of the day was Dr Al Najjar’s 11-year-old son, who was badly injured and “seemed much younger as we lifted him on to the operating table”.

Hamdi Al Najjar, Dr Al Najjar's husband who is also a doctor, being taken into hospital. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
Image:
Hamdi Al Najjar, Dr Al Najjar’s husband who is also a doctor, was taken to hospital. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence

The strike “may or may not have been aimed at his father”, Dr Groom said, adding that the man had been left “very badly injured”.

Dr Victoria Rose said the family “lived opposite a petrol station, so I don’t know whether the bomb set off some massive fire”.

Rescuers unload the children's bodies. Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence
Image:
Pic: Palestinian Civil Defence

‘No political or military connections’

Dr Groom added: “It is unimaginable for that poor woman, both of them are doctors here.

“The father was a physician at Nasser Hospital. He had no political and no military connections. He doesn’t seem to be prominent on social media, and yet his poor wife is the only uninjured one, who has the prospect of losing her husband.”

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Nineteen of Gaza’s hospitals remain operational, all of them are overwhelmed with the number of patients and a lack of supplies

He said it was “a particularly sad day”, while Dr Rose added: “That is life in Gaza. That is the way it goes in Gaza.”

Sky News has approached the Israeli Defence Forces for comment.

Read more:
Mum of emaciated baby in Gaza says ‘I don’t want to lose her’
Dad wrongly pronounced dead in Israeli bombing killed in airstrike

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Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began when the militant group stormed across the border into Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and abducting 251 others.

Israel’s military response has flattened large areas of Gaza and killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count.

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UN’s Antonio Guterres condemns ‘teaspoon’ of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes

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UN's Antonio Guterres condemns 'teaspoon' of aid allowed into Gaza after dozens die in airstrikes

The head of the UN has said Israel has only authorised for Gaza what amounts to a “teaspoon” of aid after at least 60 people died in overnight airstrikes.

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday the supplies approved so far “amounts to a teaspoon of aid when a flood of assistance is required,” adding “the needs are massive and the obstacles are staggering”.

He warned that more people will die unless there is “rapid, reliable, safe and sustained aid access”.

A woman walks amidst rubble at the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip.
Pic: Reuters
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A woman at the site of an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters

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Gaza: ‘Loads of children with huge burns’

Israel says around 300 aid trucks have been allowed through since it lifted an 11-week blockade on Monday, but according to Mr Guterres, only about a third have been transported to warehouses within Gaza due to insecurity.

The IDF said 107 vehicles carrying flour, food, medical equipment and drugs were allowed through on Thursday.

Many of Gaza’s two million residents are at high risk of famine, experts have warned.

Meanwhile, at least 60 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes across Gaza overnight.

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Ten people died in the southern city of Khan Younis, and deaths were also reported in the central town of Deir al-Balah and the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north, according to the Nasser, Al-Aqsa and Al-Ahli hospitals where the bodies were brought.

Palestinians carry a body at the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, northern Gaza .
Pic: Reuters
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A body is carried out of rubble after an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters

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‘Almost everyone depends on aid’ in Gaza

The latest strikes came a day after two Israeli embassy workers were killed in Washington.

The suspect, named as 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, told police he “did it for Gaza”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney of fuelling antisemitism following the shootings.

The leaders of the UK, France and Canada are “on the wrong side of humanity and (…) history”, he said, after they threatened “concrete action” against Israel this week if it continues its “egregious” military operations in Gaza.

Mr Netanyahu also accused Sir Keir, Mr Macron and Mr Carney of siding with “mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.

Palestinians search for casualties at the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip May 23, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
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Palestinians search for casualties in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters

But UK government minister Luke Pollard told Sky News on Friday morning he “doesn’t recognise” Mr Netanyahu’s accusation.

Earlier this week, Mr Netanyahu said he was recalling negotiators from the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of ceasefire talks failed to bring results. A working team will remain.

The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251 others.

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The militants are still holding 58 captives, around a third of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals.

Israel’s offensive, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza, has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

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