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The famous Prussian general Clausewitz famously opined: “No one starts a war or rather, no one in his senses should do so without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it”.

Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine over a year ago initiated a conflict that shows no sign of abating.

What does Putin seek to achieve, and how and when will this war end?

It would be easy to dismiss Putin’s invasion as reckless and irrational; however, Putin is a student of history – inspired by leaders such as Peter the Great and their territorial conquests – and having suffered the ignominy of the fall of the Soviet Union, he has made no secret of his desire to rebuild the former Soviet empire.

Ukrainian personnel pose with a flag on top of a Challenger 2 tank during a training at Bovington Camp, near Wool in southwestern Britain, February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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Ukrainian personnel pose with a flag on top of a Challenger 2 tank during training at Bovington Camp, near Wool

Despite the poor showing of the Russian military and the huge casualties sustained, Putin has always referred to the Ukraine invasion as a “Special Military Operation” (not a war), thus enabling him to claim even modest territorial gains as a strategic success.

Formally securing Crimea and a buffer zone (Donbas) between Russia and Ukraine (NATO), might appear modest ambitions given the original intent, but it is an important stepping stone towards Putin’s wider ambition.

To understand Putin’s motives, history provides some context.

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In November 1939, the Soviet Union felt vulnerable – Leningrad was only 20 miles from the Finnish border – and following a “false flag” operation, the Soviets invaded Finland, initiating the Winter War.

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Has Russia launched ‘false flag’ operation?

Despite superior military strength, the Soviets suffered huge casualties and their military performed badly.

The League of Nations (forerunner to the United Nations) declared the invasion illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from its ranks.

But, with Finnish forces exhausted and the Red Army badly mauled, just over three months later the Moscow Peace Treaty was eventually agreed.

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Finland ceded 9% of its territory, and the Soviets had achieved their objective – the parallels to Russia/Ukraine conflict are palpable.

When Hitler invaded Europe, as when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, defeating and deposing the aggressor was the only way to secure peace.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein stands by an Iraqi flag, January 17, 2002. On the 11th anniversary of the Gulf War, President Saddam Hussein said on Thursday his country was prepared for and would foil any fresh U.S. military attack against Iraq as part of a war against terrorism. REUTERS/INA/POOL fk/CRB

However, defeating and deposing Putin – with the risk of nuclear Armageddon – is not a credible objective.

Unless Russia is ejected entirely from Ukrainian soil (unlikely), Putin will claim a victory.

Read more:
What would Russian success mean for Western security?
Ukraine invasion has shattered Russia’s illusion of invincibility

When Putin judges that his military has culminated, expect him to seek a negotiated peace, with Ukraine – like Finland before ceding territory.

President Zelenskyy would never want to compromise given the immense national sacrifice to date.

However, the West knows its military support to Ukraine is time-limited, and risks perpetuating an unwinnable war.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a news conference on the first anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 24, 2023. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Publicly, western politicians will remain supportive, but privately expect growing pressure on Zelenskyy to end the conflict – a war Ukraine will struggle to win.

In return, the West will look to provide long-term security guarantees, and provide financial support to enable Ukraine to rebuild, with the potential to become one of the most modern and economically powerful nations in Europe – as Germany did following World War Two.

As the war enters its second year, the West risks perpetuating a conflict that Russia cannot lose and Ukraine cannot win; as a result, expect to see increasing international pressure for a negotiated end to hostilities.

The West then has to ensure that the long-term legacy of Russia’s decision to invade is so damaging that the strategic consequences far outweigh the immediate territorial gains.

Failure will risk further emboldening Russia (and indeed China), with huge implications for future global security.

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Prisons across France attacked ‘in response to crackdown on drug trafficking’

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Prisons across France attacked 'in response to crackdown on drug trafficking'

Several French prisons were attacked overnight in response to government efforts to clamp down on drug trafficking in the country, senior officials said.

Unknown assailants fired automatic weapons at a prison in the southern city of Toulon, while vehicles were burned outside other facilities across the country and staff were threatened.

France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office said on Tuesday that it had taken charge of the investigation, while the country’s DGSI national security investigation will also be involved.

French media reported that the prisons targeted were in or near cities including Toulon, Aix-En-Provence, Marseille, and the communes of Valence and Nimes.

Prisons were also targeted in the commune of Villepinte and the suburb of Nanterre near Paris, according to reports.

It is not immediately clear whether the attacks were co-ordinated, or who carried them out.

@SyndFoJustice
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Damaged caused by an automatic weapon to the exterior of La Farlede Prison near Toulon. @SyndFoJustice

Pic: @SyndFoJustice
Image:
Damaged caused by an automatic weapon to the exterior of La Farlede Prison near Toulon. @SyndFoJustice

France’s Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, who has led efforts to toughen prison security and crack down on gangsters who run their empires from behind bars, said he would travel to Toulon.

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“Attempts have been made to intimidate staff in several prisons, ranging from burning vehicles to firing automatic weapons,” Mr Darmanin wrote on X.

“I am going to Toulon to support the officers concerned. The French Republic is facing up to the problem of drug trafficking and is taking measures that will massively disrupt the criminal networks.”

Meanwhile, the country’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said he had instructed local prefects, alongside the police and gendarmerie, to immediately step up the protection of staff and prisons.

Burnt cars at Villepinte prison parking lot
Pic: @SyndFoJustice
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Burnt cars in the car park of the prison in Villepinte.
Pic: @SyndFoJustice

A ‘white tsunami’ of cocaine

Years of record South American cocaine imports to Europe have supercharged local drug markets, sparking a wave of drug violence across the continent.

Gangs in France have been able to expand from traditional power bases in cities like Marseille into smaller regional towns unaccustomed to drug violence.

The rise in gang crime is thought to have led to increased support for the far-right National Rally party and have helped drag French politics rightward.

Mr Darmanin, a former interior minister, and Mr Retailleau have prioritised tackling drug trafficking.

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Bruno Retailleau, left, and Gerald Darmanin, right, have prioritised tackling drug trafficking. Pic: AP
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Bruno Retailleau, left, and Gerald Darmanin, right, have prioritised tackling drug trafficking. Pic: AP

In February, Mr Retailleau announced record cocaine seizures of 47 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to 23 tonnes in all of 2023.

Mr Retailleau said France had been hit by a “white tsunami” that had rewritten the rules of the criminal landscape.

Meanwhile, Mr Darmanin has proposed a series of measures to tighten prison security, including isolating the country’s top 100 kingpins.

Lawmakers are also close to approving a sweeping new anti-drug trafficking law that would create a new national organised crime prosecutors’ office and give greater investigative power to police investigating drug gangs.

French authorities scored a win against drug crime in February, when they recaptured Mohamed Amra, a French fugitive known as “The Fly.”

His escape as he was being transported from prison to a court hearing resulted in the deaths of two prison guards and was seized upon by right-wing politicians as evidence that France had lost its grip on drug crime.

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Katy Perry floats in space as part of star-studded all-female Blue Origin mission

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Katy Perry floats in space as part of star-studded all-female Blue Origin mission

Katy Perry has blasted off to space along with five other women in the first all-female space crew in over sixty years. 

The Firework singer lifted off from West Texas on a Blue Origin rocket before becoming the first artist to sing in space.

Flying alongside Perry were author Lauren Sanchez, the fiancee of Blue Origin owner and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, journalist and TV presenter Gayle King, civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen, former rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, and filmmaker Kerianne Flynn.

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What happened in Blue Origin all-female space flight

The star-studded crew were supported on the ground by family and friends including Kris Jenner, Khloe Kardashian and Oprah Winfrey, who said she had “never been more proud” of her friend, King.

“There’s only one time all the women are going up for the first time,” Oprah said she told her friend when urging her to go on the flight, telling her she’d regret turning down the opportunity.

This image provided by Blue Origin shows, first row, seated, from left: Lauren Sanchez and Kerianne Flynn and standing in back from left: Amanda Nguyen, Katy Perry, Gayle King and Aisha Bowe in West Texas. (Blue Origin via AP)
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(Seated left to right) Lauren Sanchez and Kerianne Flynn, (standing left to right) Amanda Nguyen, Katy Perry, Gayle King and Aisha Bowe. Pic: Blue Origin

Pic: Blue Origin
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Katy Perry rings a symbolic bell before boarding the New Shepard rocket. Pic: Blue Origin

Weightlessness

The crew were weightless for just four minutes after passing the Karman line, a 62-mile-high boundary that is internationally recognised as the boundary of space.

Pic: Blue Origin
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Pic: Blue Origin

They could be heard screaming as they began to feel weightless, and told each other to look at the incredible views of the moon.

As the crew were leaving space, Perry started to sing What a Wonderful World by Louis Armstrong.

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‘I feel super-connected to love’

Asked why she chose that song, she said: “It’s not about me or about me singing my songs, it was about a collective energy in there.

“It’s about this wonderful world that we see right out there and appreciating it.”

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Kardashians share support for all-female crew

She confirmed she will be writing a song about the experience.

Space missions don’t get any weirder than this

A sassy crew, a billionaire and a celebrity circus in the desert. Space missions don’t get any weirder.

But this is the new world of Blue Origin and its publicity machine.

It brought together six women – all at the top of their game – and dressed them in designer flight suits. One of them, singer Katy Perry, said they “put the ass into astronauts”.

They launched in a rocket called New Shepard, rising to 65 miles above the Earth, where they unbuckled and floated.

Back on planet Earth there was a star-studded gathering. There were a couple of Kardashians. And Oprah Winfrey was there too, covering her eyes, barely able to look.

It was all a little surreal, and maybe it will have attracted an audience who wouldn’t normally watch a space launch.

It’s remarkable that this was the first all-female space mission in more than 60 years.

Read Thomas Moore’s full analysis here.

Pic: Blue Origin
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Katy Perry kisses the ground after the flight. Pic: Blue Origin

The descent

Three parachutes on their capsule opened up to bring them safely back down to Earth and just before they landed, an air cushion blew a cloud of dust up in the west Texas desert, giving a dramatic-looking touchdown.

Pic: Blue Origin
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Pic: Blue Origin

Pic: Blue Origin
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Pic: Blue Origin

“Excited as I am, I’ll be very glad when we come back down,” said self-confessed nervous flier King before liftoff.

When she exited the shuttle, the presenter kissed the floor and said: “Thank you, Jesus”.

She said it was “oddly quiet” in space, and it reminded her that people needed to “do better and be better” on Earth.

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“It was the most incredible experience of my life to be up there and see such vast darkness in space and look down on our planet,” said Flynn, through tears.

“The moon was so beautiful and I feel like that was a special gift just for me,” she said.

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British father and son drown off Australian coast – reports

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British father and son drown off Australian coast - reports

A British father and son have reportedly drowned after they were swept out to sea off the coast of a popular Australian tourist town.

The 46-year-old man and his 17-year-old son reportedly got into difficulty while swimming at a beach in Seventeen Seventy – named after the year Captain James Cook landed in Queensland.

They were declared dead at the scene after being pulled from the water by a rescue helicopter.

A third man, an Australian who is believed to have tried to rescue the pair, was taken to hospital after suffering head injuries, according to local media.

CapRescue, the emergency service that conducted the operation on Sunday, said it “was a difficult one”.

“At 2.17pm, emergency services were called to 1770 after reports three people had been swept out into the ocean,” they said in a statement on Facebook.

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“Multiple crews were tasked to the scene, including CapRescue. Despite the best efforts of all involved, two people tragically lost their lives.

“One patient was transported by air to the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital in a life-threatening condition.

“Our thoughts are with everyone affected by this heartbreaking incident.”

Police confirmed the pair were visiting from the UK and said a report would be prepared for the coroner, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), while 7News reported they were father and son.

The town, at the southern tip of the Great Barrier Reef, draws visitors from around the world and is busy with tourists in the school holidays before Easter.

Surf Life Saving Queensland’s regional operations manager, Darren Everard, told ABC the deaths were “an absolute tragedy”.

“Around any of our creeks and headlands… especially on a high tide when there’s a big swell, it’s chaos in the water and… sadly, that’s where we have coastal fatalities in Australia,” he said.

“I think everyone should just take that little bit of time when they go on holidays, and it doesn’t matter where you are around Australia, seek local knowledge… but you also need to go to where those flags are.”

A foreign Office spokesperson said: “We are supporting the family of two British nationals who have died in Australia and are in contact with the local authorities.”

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