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The famous Prussian general Clausewitz famously opined: “No one starts a war or rather, no one in his senses should do so without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it”.

Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine over a year ago initiated a conflict that shows no sign of abating.

What does Putin seek to achieve, and how and when will this war end?

It would be easy to dismiss Putin’s invasion as reckless and irrational; however, Putin is a student of history – inspired by leaders such as Peter the Great and their territorial conquests – and having suffered the ignominy of the fall of the Soviet Union, he has made no secret of his desire to rebuild the former Soviet empire.

Ukrainian personnel pose with a flag on top of a Challenger 2 tank during a training at Bovington Camp, near Wool in southwestern Britain, February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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Ukrainian personnel pose with a flag on top of a Challenger 2 tank during training at Bovington Camp, near Wool

Despite the poor showing of the Russian military and the huge casualties sustained, Putin has always referred to the Ukraine invasion as a “Special Military Operation” (not a war), thus enabling him to claim even modest territorial gains as a strategic success.

Formally securing Crimea and a buffer zone (Donbas) between Russia and Ukraine (NATO), might appear modest ambitions given the original intent, but it is an important stepping stone towards Putin’s wider ambition.

To understand Putin’s motives, history provides some context.

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In November 1939, the Soviet Union felt vulnerable – Leningrad was only 20 miles from the Finnish border – and following a “false flag” operation, the Soviets invaded Finland, initiating the Winter War.

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Has Russia launched ‘false flag’ operation?

Despite superior military strength, the Soviets suffered huge casualties and their military performed badly.

The League of Nations (forerunner to the United Nations) declared the invasion illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from its ranks.

But, with Finnish forces exhausted and the Red Army badly mauled, just over three months later the Moscow Peace Treaty was eventually agreed.

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Finland ceded 9% of its territory, and the Soviets had achieved their objective – the parallels to Russia/Ukraine conflict are palpable.

When Hitler invaded Europe, as when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, defeating and deposing the aggressor was the only way to secure peace.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein stands by an Iraqi flag, January 17, 2002. On the 11th anniversary of the Gulf War, President Saddam Hussein said on Thursday his country was prepared for and would foil any fresh U.S. military attack against Iraq as part of a war against terrorism. REUTERS/INA/POOL fk/CRB

However, defeating and deposing Putin – with the risk of nuclear Armageddon – is not a credible objective.

Unless Russia is ejected entirely from Ukrainian soil (unlikely), Putin will claim a victory.

Read more:
What would Russian success mean for Western security?
Ukraine invasion has shattered Russia’s illusion of invincibility

When Putin judges that his military has culminated, expect him to seek a negotiated peace, with Ukraine – like Finland before ceding territory.

President Zelenskyy would never want to compromise given the immense national sacrifice to date.

However, the West knows its military support to Ukraine is time-limited, and risks perpetuating an unwinnable war.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a news conference on the first anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 24, 2023. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Publicly, western politicians will remain supportive, but privately expect growing pressure on Zelenskyy to end the conflict – a war Ukraine will struggle to win.

In return, the West will look to provide long-term security guarantees, and provide financial support to enable Ukraine to rebuild, with the potential to become one of the most modern and economically powerful nations in Europe – as Germany did following World War Two.

As the war enters its second year, the West risks perpetuating a conflict that Russia cannot lose and Ukraine cannot win; as a result, expect to see increasing international pressure for a negotiated end to hostilities.

The West then has to ensure that the long-term legacy of Russia’s decision to invade is so damaging that the strategic consequences far outweigh the immediate territorial gains.

Failure will risk further emboldening Russia (and indeed China), with huge implications for future global security.

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Gaza aid group reacts to claims American contractors fired at starving Palestinians

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Gaza aid group reacts to claims American contractors fired at starving Palestinians

Israeli-backed American contractors guarding aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades as starving Palestinians scramble for food, an investigation has claimed.

The Associated Press has reported the accounts by two contractors from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), although the organisation has strongly denied the allegations, describing them as “categorically false”.

GHF was established in February to deliver desperately needed aid to people in the besieged enclave, but its work has been heavily criticised by international aid groups.

It has also been subject to intense scrutiny about its operations, which Sky News previously reported are associated with a significant increase in deaths.

AP’s claims, which have not been independently verified by Sky News, came from GHF contractors who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were revealing their employer’s internal operations.

Palestinians dispersing away from tear gas fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
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Palestinians are shown scrambling for aid in the footage provided to AP. Pic: AP

They said they were motivated to speak out as they were disturbed by what they considered dangerous practices by security staff who were often heavily armed.

AP reported the contractors had claimed “their colleagues regularly lobbed stun grenades and pepper spray in the direction of the Palestinians” and “bullets were fired in all directions – in the air, into the ground and at times toward the Palestinians, recalling at least one instance where he thought someone had been hit”.

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Contractor: ‘Innocent people being hurt’

“There are innocent people being hurt. Badly. Needlessly,” the contractor told AP.

Videos reportedly provided by one contractor show aid sites, located in Israeli military-controlled zones, with hundreds of Palestinians crammed between metal gates, scrambling to reach aid.

In the background, gunfire can be heard, and stun grenades are allegedly fired into crowds.

Palestinians dispersing away from tear gas fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
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Footage provided to the AP news agency allegedly shows tear gas being fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP

The footage does not show who was shooting or what was being shot at, but another video shows contractors in a compound, when bursts of gunfire can be heard. One man is then heard shouting in celebration: “Whoo! Whoo!”.

“I think you hit one,” another says, followed by the comment: “Hell, yeah, boy!”

The contractor who took the video told AP that colleagues were shooting in the direction of Palestinians.

Read more:
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According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and witnesses, several hundred people have been killed and hundreds more wounded since the GHF sites started operating more than a month ago, amid claims by Palestinians of Israeli troops opening fire almost every day at crowds seeking to reach the aid.

In response, Israel’s military says it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm. It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.

Gunfire can be heard as Palestinians run towards aid being distributed. Pic: AP
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Bursts of gunfire can be heard in the footage as Palestinians run towards aid being distributed. Pic: AP

GHF attacks ‘false claims’

GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it has investigated AP’s allegations.

In a statement on X, GHF wrote: “Based on time-stamped video footage and sworn witness statements, we have concluded that the claims in the AP’s story are categorically false. At no point were civilians under fire at a GHF distribution site.

“The gunfire heard in the video was confirmed to have originated from the IDF, who was outside the immediate vicinity of the GHF distribution site.

“It was not directed at individuals, and no one was shot or injured. What is most troubling is that the AP refused to share the full video with us prior to publication, despite the seriousness of the allegations.”

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Safe Reach Solutions, the logistics company subcontracted by GHF, told the AP there have been no serious injuries at any of their sites to date.

But the organisation admitted that, in isolated incidents, security professionals fired live rounds into the ground and away from civilians to get their attention.

A Safe Reach Solutions spokesperson told AP this happened at the start of their operations at “the height of desperation where crowd control measures were necessary for the safety and security of civilians”.

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Liverpool football star Diogo Jota killed in car crash

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Liverpool football star Diogo Jota killed in car crash

Liverpool star Diogo Jota has died in a car crash.

The 28-year-old Portuguese forward died in the accident in the early hours of Thursday morning near Zamora, in northwestern Spain.

His brother, Andre Silva, was also killed in the crash on the Rias Bajas Highway (A-52) near Palacios de Sanabria, heading towards Benavente.

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Jota’s former teammate: ‘This can’t be real’

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The site of the accident on the A52

Follow the latest updates following Diogo Jota’s death

Jota and Silva were driving to Santander to catch a ferry back to England ahead of the start of Liverpool’s pre-season training on Monday, CNN Portugal reports.

The news outlet reports that Jota was advised against flying back to England due to recent surgery.

Police said the accident happened at 12.30am when the Lamborghini the pair were travelling in veered off the road.

Palacios de Sanabria in the north of Spain
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Palacios de Sanabria in the north of Spain

“A vehicle left the road and everything indicates a tyre burst while overtaking,” the Guardia Civil in Zamora told Sky Sports News in a statement.

“As a result of the accident, the car caught fire and both people were killed. Pending the completion of forensic tests, one of the deceased has been identified as Diogo Jota, a Liverpool FC player, and his brother, Andre Felipe.”

A Spanish government source told the PA news agency that police were investigating the crash as “a possible speeding incident”.

The aftermath of the crash. Pic: AP
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The aftermath of the crash. Pic: AP

The aftermath of the crash. Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

Police added that no other vehicles were involved in the incident.

Pictures of the aftermath of the crash showed debris scattered along the side of the road, including what appeared to be charred parts of the vehicle.

It comes just 10 days after the player married his long-term girlfriend, Rute Cardoso.

Diogo Jota holds the Premier League trophy aloft after the club's title win in the 2024/25 season. Pic: Reuters
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Diogo Jota holds the Premier League trophy aloft after the club’s title win in the 2024/25 season. Pic: Reuters

Diogo Jota walks the pitch with his family in 2022.
Pic: PA
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Diogo Jota walks the pitch with his family in 2022.
Pic: PA

He had three children.

The footballer, who played as a striker for Liverpool, began his career in his native Portugal and played at Atletico Madrid in Spain before moving to England.

He joined the Merseyside club from Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2020.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp gives instructions to substitute Diogo Jota during the UEFA Europa League quarter-final, first leg match at Anfield, Liverpool. Picture date: Thursday April 11, 2024.
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Former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp with Diogo Jota. Pic: PA

Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and Diogo Jota (right) during a training session at the SMiSA Stadium, Paisley. Picture date: Monday October 14, 2024.
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Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and Diogo Jota (right) during a training session. Pic: PA

Jota played an important role throughout his five years with the Reds, including scoring six times in Liverpool’s recent Premier League-winning season.

He scored a total of 47 times in 123 matches for the club. He also played 49 times for the Portugal national side, scoring 14 times.

Silva, 25, played for Penafiel, a Portuguese second division club.

Diogo Jota holding the trophy on the team bus during the Premier League winners parade in Liverpool.
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Diogo Jota holding the trophy on the team bus during the Premier League winners parade in Liverpool. Pic: PA

Teammates and football legends pay tribute

A statement issued by Liverpool FC said the club was “devastated” by their player’s death.

“The club have been informed the 28-year-old has passed away following a road traffic accident in Spain along with his brother, Andre,” the club said in a statement.

“Liverpool FC will be making no further comment at this time and request the privacy of Diogo and Andre’s family, friends, teammates and club staff is respected as they try to come to terms with an unimaginable loss.

“We will continue to provide them with our full support.”

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Sky’s Greg Milam reports from Anfield Stadium where Liverpool fans are hearing about the death of Diogo Jota.

The Portuguese football federation said it was “utterly devastated by the deaths”.

“Far beyond being an exceptional player, with nearly 50 caps for the national team, Diogo Jota was an extraordinary person, respected by all teammates and opponents, someone with a contagious joy and a reference within his own community.

“We have lost two champions. The passing of Diogo and Andre Silva represents irreparable losses for Portuguese Football, and we will do everything to honour their legacy daily.”

The Portugal and Spain women’s teams held a minute’s silence for Jota and Silva before their match in the Women’s Euros in Switzerland on Thursday evening.

Floral tributes left at Anfield this morning. Pic: Sky
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Floral tributes left at Anfield this morning. Pic: Sky

It came after Liverpool’s manager Arne Slot said in a statement: “What can anyone say at a time like this when the shock and the pain is so incredibly raw? I wish I had the words but I know I do not.

“All I have are feelings that I know so many people will share about a person and a player we loved dearly and a family we care so much about.

“My first thoughts are not those of a football manager. They are of a father, a son, a brother and an uncle and they belong to the family of Diogo and Andre Silva who have experienced such an unimaginable loss.”

Jota’s former manager at Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp, offered his thoughts in a post on Instagram.

“This is a moment where I struggle! There must be a bigger purpose, but I can’t see it,” he said.

“I’m heartbroken to hear about the passing of Diogo and his brother Andre. Diogo was not only a fantastic player, but also a great friend, a loving and caring husband and father.

“We will miss you so much. All my prayers, thoughts and power to Rute, the kids, the family, the friends and everyone who loved them.”

Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk posted on Instagram: “What a human being, what a player, but most importantly what an unbelievable family man.

“You mean so much to all of us and you always will!”

Cristiano Ronaldo, Jota’s captain in the national team, said: “It doesn’t make sense. Just now we were together in the National Team, just now you had gotten married.

“To your family, your wife, and your children, I send my condolences and wish them all the strength in the world.

“I know you will always be with them. Rest in Peace, Diogo and Andre. We will all miss you.”

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Diogo Jota married his long-term girlfriend just two weeks ago

Jota’s Liverpool teammates Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai have also paid tribute.

Szoboszlai wrote: “Words cannot describe how heartbroken and devastated we are… Your smile, your love for the game will never be forgotten.

“We will miss you so much, but you will stay with us forever, on and off the pitch.”

Jota’s former teammates Trent Alexander-Arnold, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Thiago Alcantara have also shared messages on social media.

Mane posted a picture of himself and Jota with heartbreak emojis.

It came as Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish wrote on X: “You feel helpless, knowing there’s so little we can do to ease the pain for his wife of just two weeks, his three beautiful children.”

Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard shared an image of Jota on Instagram and wrote: “Condolences to his family and friends during this incredibly sad time.”

Liverpool owners Billy Hogan, John Henry and Tom Werner, who are part of the Fenway Sports Group, said: “This tragic situation and the reality of it is truly shocking, devastating and has left us numb with grief.”

Football icon Lionel Messi has also paid tribute, sharing an image of Jota on Instagram with the message “QEPD” – short for the Spanish phrase ‘que en paz descanse’, which translates to “may he rest in peace'”.

European football clubs such as Barcelona and AC Milan have also shared messages, along with basketball player LeBron James and tennis icon Rafael Nadal.

Meanwhile Liverpool FC have opened a physical and digital book of condolence for supporters and members of the public to sign.

The physical book is at the club’s stadium, in the Anfield Road Stand reception area until Sunday evening.

An avid video gamer, Jota also owned an eSports team and regularly streamed on Twitch.

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Iran: Still a chance for peace talks with US

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Iran: Still a chance for peace talks with US

Iran’s foreign ministry has told Sky News there is still a chance for peace talks with the United States.

In an interview in Iran’s foreign ministry in Tehran, a senior Iranian official said despite the attacks on his country by America and Israel, back-channel efforts are under way to restart the search for a diplomatic solution.

The comments will be seen as an olive branch for the Trump administration to seize as it explores a diplomatic way forward.

Sky News is one of only a handful of foreign news organisations allowed access to Iran following its short and devastating war with Israel.

We also filmed the impact of Israel’s attacks on ordinary Iranians in Tehran.

In the wake of a ceasefire declared by Donald Trump, Esmaeil Baqaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, said the US must show it is genuine in its desire for peace.

“Diplomacy must not be abused or used as a tool for deception or for simply a sort of psychological warfare against their adversaries.”

Iran felt diplomacy had been betrayed, he said. US-Iranian talks were on the verge of reconvening when Israel attacked his country.

And America had breached international law in its support of what he called “Zionist aggression”.

But Mr Baqaei said “diplomacy never ends, there are contacts, indirectly. My minister is talking to Oman, Qatar and others”.

President Trump says he is ready to talk with Iran, but major stumbling blocks need to be overcome.

The US wants Iran to give up nuclear enrichment completely. Iran has long insisted it has the right to carry on.

Read more from Sky News:
Diogo Jota’s tragic final Instagram post after marrying childhood sweetheart
Thousands of passengers hit by wave of flight cancellations

Residential building hit by Israel in Tehran
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A residential building hit by Israel in Tehran

Residential building hit by Israel in Tehran, VT Dominic Waghorn
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A residential building hit by Israel in Tehran

Across town, we witnessed the impact of Israel’s attacks in Gisha, an upmarket neighbourhood of Tehran.

Israel claims its attacks on Iranian figures were precision-targeted. In reality they appear to have been far from surgical.

The airstrike came at 10.30 Friday morning two weeks ago. It ripped a hole through four floors of reinforced concrete in the residential apartment block.

The target may have been a nuclear scientist living there, but everyone in the building is now without a home. Engineers say it will almost certainly need to be torn down.

The mood in the Iranian capital seems subdued and tense.

Iranians fear Israelis will renew their air campaign despite the ceasefire, but the foreign ministry spokesperson said they “will respond” to any Israeli attack.

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There is widespread resentment of the leadership after nationwide social unrest and massive economic problems.

But the Israeli attacks have rallied many Iranians around their government all the same.

They had hoped diplomacy with America could deliver a new deal and an end to sanctions, then Israel began its 12-day aerial onslaught and the US joined in.

Iranians hope somehow talks can be restarted, but they also know the chances of progress are, for now at least, not great.

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