As uncertainty sweeps through the Middle East, Iraq’s prime minister has been focused on development, travelling to London to negotiate a series of deals on the economy and security.

Yet it is the prospect of stability offered by a ceasefire in Gaza that represents a more valuable prize and it was on this subject that Mohammed Shia’ al Sudani seemed particularly frustrated when he met Sky News at a central London hotel.

He said: “The decision to stop the war is not just up to the Israelis, there are other factors that play a part, like the international community.

“Iraq has been seeking international partners to stop this destructive war, which [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu has been trying to lengthen for various reasons, including internal political reasons that interest him. One of which is to embroil the region in all-out war to give him more time in office.”

Iraqi PM’s patience ‘running thin’

Disagreements and misunderstandings continue to bedevil the ceasefire deal and the imprecise wording contained within the agreement suggests that a respite from fighting could be short-lived. It was clear that Mr Sudani’s patience was running thin.

He said: “It’s more than 16 months now, that’s enough, it’s time for the international community to take action. It’s failed to carry its responsibilities in regards to the grave violations of the rules of war in Gaza.

“Everyone realises that this war, this genocidal war, must stop and that efforts should be made, regionally and internationally, to reconstruct Gaza.”

Sir Keir Starmer does not use words like genocide to describe Israel’s activities in Gaza – but that is a symptom of the West’s failure, said Mr Sudani, to enforce the values they claim to advance.

Frustration over West’s ‘failures’

He said: “It is not only me but everyone is frustrated with the international community, the failure to recognise the rules of war, international law, humanitarian law, principles of human rights, ideals which everybody says they are fighting for but they’re not. All of these things are thrown against the wall.”

Mr Sudani told Sky News that he shared his exasperation with Sir Keir when the two men met this week, yet it seems he has not had the opportunity to do the same with US president-elect Donald Trump.

The Iraqi PM said: “There was a phone call to congratulate him because he won the presidential election. It was a positive call, we both expressed our desire to cooperate.”

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Many believe Mr Trump’s re-arrival on the international scene will foster greater instability in the Middle East with his affinity for right-wing Israeli objectives. Furthermore, Mr Trump ordered the killing of key Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, in the Iraqi capital Baghdad during his first term.

Careful not to judge Trump

Yet Mr Sudani was careful not to venture an opinion on Mr Trump.

“This is the choice of the American people, we have to respect their choice, our relations with the US are based on institutions, they’re governed by questions of strategy,” he said.

The Iraqi prime minister performs a political high-wire act, as he tries to maintain relations with Western leaders as well as Tehran, which provides funding and training to a number of militia groups which form part of Iraq’s security forces.

Munitions were routinely fired at Israel by some of these groups as the war in Gaza escalated.

“We’re not embarrassed in any way, we carry out our duties to enforce the law, to maintain security and stability in Iraq and reject all means of violence. We won’t allow any side to dictate the decision between peace and war,” he said.

Mr Sudani says he is in control.

“Yes, yes, certainly.”

Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to the presidential palace in Kyiv was met with a message from Russia when a drone was blasted out of the sky above.

The prime minister was meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, on Sir Keir’s first visit to Kyiv since his election victory last July.

The sound of anti-aircraft gunfire was audible in the palace courtyard as air sirens warned of possible drone attacks. While air sirens blaring are a daily occurrence in Ukraine, it’s rare for drones to be shot out of the sky over the presidential palace.

One drone was shot down, although eyewitnesses think there were at least two drones operating and suspect they were probably surveillance drones, as the one taken out didn’t explode on impact.

President Zelenskyy gave his Russian enemies short shrift, saying when the drone was detected: “We will say hello to them too.”

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An audacious move by Moscow, Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.

The PM reiterated his support for Ukraine’s eventual accession to NATO, and noted the discussion at the NATO summit in Washington last year – when its allies put Ukraine on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership.

However, President Zelenskyy, perhaps with an eye on the incoming Trump administration, was more forthright in his response to the question of Western allies supporting Ukraine’s membership. He told reporters the US, Slovakia, Germany and Hungary “cannot see us in NATO”.

President Trump has recently acknowledged Moscow’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean, as the president-elect said: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”

‘Nothing is off the table’

This was a news conference big on symbolism as Sir Keir vowed to stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes and put Kyiv in the strongest possible position for negotiations with Russia.

He pledged to work with Ukraine in the months ahead to ensure security guarantees for the country in any ceasefire deal, while also opening the door to possible troop deployments in training or a peacekeeping capacity, saying “nothing is off the table”.

“We must be totally clear – a just and lasting peace comes through strength,” said Sir Keir.

The PM also pledged to send 1,540 artillery barrels to Ukraine as President Zelenskyy called for more weapons, blaming Russia’s advance in the eastern part of Ukraine on the slow supply of weapons.

A new mobile defence system and a ramping up in the training of troops were also promised by Sir Keir.

President Zelenskyy also acknowledged in the news conference that much is uncertain around this conflict and what security guarantees Ukraine might get from its allies ahead of conversations with Trump.

In a region bereft of hope, the prospect of a ceasefire represents a flicker of possibility – but make no mistake, there’s still a great deal of uncertainty about the deal.

If all goes well, the violence in Gaza which has ravaged the enclave for 467 long and brutal days will halt and hopefully lead to a better future.

However, the question remains – just how likely is the ceasefire deal to succeed in the long term?

Ceasefire deal latest: Dozens reported dead in Gaza strikes

The agreement will in the short term offer at least a pause from the fighting. It’s perhaps better to look at it in that context, as a cessation of hostilities rather than an actual ceasefire.

More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign, according to the Hamas-led health ministry in Gaza.

Israel launched its response after around 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on 7 October 2023.

For Israel, the deal in the first phase will see the release of 33 hostages who have been held inside the strip since they were kidnapped that day.

It is not lost on anyone though how difficult it’s been – after many false starts – to get to this point.

The deal itself is deliberately ambiguous and there’s a sense that it’s been left that way to simply get it across the line and started.

Much could still go wrong and there are more questions than there are answers.

Hamas is involved in the negotiations, but Israel has made it clear that it can have no place in post-war Gaza.

However, as an entity and fighting force, it is diminished but far from defeated.

It will almost certainly not give up power easily.

Read more:
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It is this ambiguity that raises the terrifying spectre that the fighting could start up again at any point – many of the main issues remain unresolved.

For instance, we still don’t know who will run Gaza in the longer term.

The international community’s answer to that is a reformed Palestinian authority but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in the past that that’s not acceptable to Israel – neither is any role for Hamas.

As far as mediators are concerned, it seems there’s a hope that the deal can commence and then, over the six weeks of the first phase, more negotiations can take place – and hopefully, faith on both sides can be created to bring around a permanent ceasefire.

But if all of that collapses we could see a return to the violence.

There are also domestic considerations inside Israel – the deal in some respects is all things to all men.

It means Netanyahu can present it as both temporary or permanent, depending on who he’s speaking to or trying to appease.

But on an optimistic note, it does mean that as long as the negotiations continue, there’s no fighting.

More broadly it’s also worth bearing in mind that over the years there have been numerous attempts at ceasefire deals – most of which have ultimately failed to bring long-lasting peace to the region.

This pattern of repeated failures raises doubts about the likelihood of success this time.

Both sides have a long history of mistrust and animosity.