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It’s that time of year: The projection systems for the 2023 MLB season have been released and baseball analysts are divulging their secret-sauce prophecies, so let’s dig into the five teams that are most likely to take a step forward and possibly emerge as playoff surprises in 2023.

And, yes, no matter how loaded the top teams look now, there will be a surprise team or two in the postseason come October. When making predictions, I tend to default too easily to the previous year’s standings even though the logical side of my brain that has studied these things understands that won’t happen. This is called the Law of Competitive Balance or the Plexiglass Principle: Teams that improve one season tend to decline the next — and vice versa.

It’s really just a fancy way of describing regression to the mean, which applies to players as well. Aaron Judge probably won’t hit 62 home runs again. Jarred Kelenic will likely hit better than .141. The Dodgers won’t win 111 games. The Nationals — well, the Nationals might lose 107 again. Projection systems follow this model. As a result, while they will be more accurate in the total than someone just eyeballing things and making guesses, they are also, by nature, more conservative than the actual results we might see.

The latest PECOTA projection at Baseball Prospectus, for example, sees the Yankees as the best team at 96.9 wins. In 2022, five teams beat that win total, including four with at least 101 wins — and three beat that figure in 2021 and six in 2019, so barring a drastic change in competitive balance across the league, we’ll likely see at least a couple of 100-win teams in 2023.

At the same time, every season we usually get at least one losing team from the previous season that makes the playoffs. There were three in 2022: the Mets went from 77 wins to 101; the Guardians went from 80 to 92; and the Padres went from 79 to 89 (and that doesn’t include the Orioles, who went from 52 wins to 83, one of the biggest single-season improvements in MLB history). The Mets and Padres weren’t necessarily big surprises since New York spent a lot of money in free agency and San Diego had been a strong team in 2020 (although it improved despite losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the entire season). There were four such playoff teams in 2021, one in 2019 (we’ll skip 2020), two in 2018 and three in 2017. The last season without a losing team from the year before making the playoffs was 2016.

OK, let’s pick five sub-.500 teams that might break out in 2023 …

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‘Vibrant’ Sanders says Buffs will ‘win differently’

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'Vibrant' Sanders says Buffs will 'win differently'

BOULDER, Colo. — Colorado coach Deion Sanders said he feels “healthy and vibrant” after returning to the field for preseason practices after undergoing surgery to remove his bladder after a cancerous tumor was found.

Sanders, 57, said he has been walking at least a mile around campus following Colorado’s practices, which began last week. He was away from the team for the late spring and early summer following the surgery in May. Dr. Janet Kukreja, director of urological oncology at University of Colorado Cancer Center, said July 30 that Sanders, who lost about 25 pounds during his recovery, is “cured of cancer.”

“I’m healthy, I’m vibrant, I’m my old self,” Sanders said. “I’m loving life right now. I’m trying my best to live to the fullest, considering what transpired.”

Sanders credited Colorado’s assistant coaches and support staff for overseeing the program during his absence. The Pro Football Hall of Famer enters his third season as Buffaloes coach this fall.

“They’ve given me tremendous comfort,” Sanders said. “I never had to call 100 times and check on the house, because I felt like the house is going to be OK. That’s why you try your best to hire correct, so you don’t have to check on the house night and day. They did a good job, especially strength and conditioning.”

Colorado improved from four to nine wins in Sanders’ second season, but the team loses Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, the No. 2 pick in April’s NFL draft, as well as record-setting quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the son of Deion Sanders. The Buffaloes have an influx of new players, including quarterbacks Kaidon Salter and Julian “Ju Ju” Lewis, who are competing for the starting job, as well as new staff members such as Pro Football Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, who is coaching the Buffaloes’ running backs.

Despite the changes and his own health challenges, Deion Sanders expects Colorado to continue ascending. The Buffaloes open the season Aug. 29 when they host Georgia Tech.

“The next phase is we’re going to win differently, but we’re going to win,” Sanders said. “I don’t know if it’s going to be the Hail Mary’s at the end of the game, but it’s going to be hell during the game, because we want to be physical and we want to run the heck out of the football.”

Sanders said it will feel “a little weird, a little strange” to not be coaching Shedeur when the quarterback starts his first NFL preseason game for the Cleveland Browns on Friday night at Carolina. Deion Sanders said he and Shedeur had spoken several times Friday morning. Despite being projected as a top quarterback in the draft, Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round.

“A lot of people are approaching it like a preseason game, he’s approaching like a game, and that’s how he’s always approached everything, to prepare and approach it like this is it,” Deion Sanders said. “He’s thankful and appreciative of the opportunity. He don’t get covered in, you know, all the rhetoric in the media.

“Some of the stuff is just ignorant. Some of it is really adolescent, he far surpasses that, and I can’t wait to see him play.”

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LSU QB Nussmeier dealing with patellar tendinitis

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LSU QB Nussmeier dealing with patellar tendinitis

LSU starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier aggravated the patellar tendinitis he has been dealing with in his knee but will not miss any significant time, coach Brian Kelly said Friday.

Kelly dropped in ahead of a news conference Friday with offensive coordinator Joe Sloan to tell reporters that Nussmeier did not suffer a severe knee injury or even a new one. According to Kelly, Nussmeier has chronic tendinitis in his knee and “probably just planted the wrong way” during Wednesday’s practice.

Nussmeier ranked fifth nationally in passing yards (4,052) last season, his first as LSU’s starter, and projects as an NFL first-round draft pick in 2026.

“It’s not torn, there’s no fraying, there’s none of that,” Kelly said. “This is preexisting. … There’s nothing to really see on film with it, but it pissed it off. He aggravated it a little bit, but he’s good to go.”

Kelly said Nussmeier’s injury ranks 1.5 out of 10 in terms of severity. Asked whether it’s the right or left knee, Kelly said he didn’t know, adding, “It’s not a serious injury. Guys are dealing with tendinitis virtually every day in life.”

LSU opens the season Aug. 30 at Clemson.

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3 departing members file updated suit vs. MWC

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3 departing members file updated suit vs. MWC

Three departing members of the Mountain West Conference are suing the league, alleging it improperly withheld millions of dollars and misled them about a plan to accelerate Grand Canyon’s membership.

Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State filed an updated lawsuit in the District Court of Denver arguing the conference and Commissioner Gloria Nevarez willfully disregarded the league’s bylaws by “intentionally and fraudulently” depriving the schools of their membership rights.

The three schools, which are all headed to the Pac-12 after the 2025-26 school year, are seeking damages for millions of dollars of alleged harm caused by the Mountain West, including the withholding of money earned by Boise State for playing in last year’s College Football Playoff.

“We are disappointed that the Mountain West continues to improperly retaliate against the departing members and their student athletes,” Steve Olson, partner and litigation department co-chair for the O’Melveny law firm, said in a statement. “We will seek all appropriate relief from the court to protect our clients’ rights and interests.”

The Mountain West declined further comment outside of a statement released last week. The conference has said the departing schools were involved in adopting the exit fees and sought to enforce those against San Diego State when it tried to leave the conference two years ago.

“We remain confident in our legal position, which we will vigorously defend,” the statement said.

The three outgoing schools argue the Mountain West’s exit fees, which could range from $19 million to $38 million, are unlawful and not enforceable. The lawsuit also claims the Mountain West concealed a plan to move up Grand Canyon University’s membership a year to 2025-26 without informing the departing schools.

The Mountain West is also seeking $55 million in “poaching fees” from the Pac-12 for the loss of five schools, including San Diego State and Fresno State starting in 2026. The two sides are headed back to court after mediation that expired last month failed to reach a resolution.

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