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It’s that time of year: The projection systems for the 2023 MLB season have been released and baseball analysts are divulging their secret-sauce prophecies, so let’s dig into the five teams that are most likely to take a step forward and possibly emerge as playoff surprises in 2023.

And, yes, no matter how loaded the top teams look now, there will be a surprise team or two in the postseason come October. When making predictions, I tend to default too easily to the previous year’s standings even though the logical side of my brain that has studied these things understands that won’t happen. This is called the Law of Competitive Balance or the Plexiglass Principle: Teams that improve one season tend to decline the next — and vice versa.

It’s really just a fancy way of describing regression to the mean, which applies to players as well. Aaron Judge probably won’t hit 62 home runs again. Jarred Kelenic will likely hit better than .141. The Dodgers won’t win 111 games. The Nationals — well, the Nationals might lose 107 again. Projection systems follow this model. As a result, while they will be more accurate in the total than someone just eyeballing things and making guesses, they are also, by nature, more conservative than the actual results we might see.

The latest PECOTA projection at Baseball Prospectus, for example, sees the Yankees as the best team at 96.9 wins. In 2022, five teams beat that win total, including four with at least 101 wins — and three beat that figure in 2021 and six in 2019, so barring a drastic change in competitive balance across the league, we’ll likely see at least a couple of 100-win teams in 2023.

At the same time, every season we usually get at least one losing team from the previous season that makes the playoffs. There were three in 2022: the Mets went from 77 wins to 101; the Guardians went from 80 to 92; and the Padres went from 79 to 89 (and that doesn’t include the Orioles, who went from 52 wins to 83, one of the biggest single-season improvements in MLB history). The Mets and Padres weren’t necessarily big surprises since New York spent a lot of money in free agency and San Diego had been a strong team in 2020 (although it improved despite losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the entire season). There were four such playoff teams in 2021, one in 2019 (we’ll skip 2020), two in 2018 and three in 2017. The last season without a losing team from the year before making the playoffs was 2016.

OK, let’s pick five sub-.500 teams that might break out in 2023 …

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Andersen, Canes blank Caps, capture series lead

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Andersen, Canes blank Caps, capture series lead

RALEIGH, N.C. — Andrei Svechnikov pounced on a loose faceoff puck for his sixth postseason goal while Frederik Andersen had 21 saves as the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Washington Capitals 4-0 on Saturday night for a 2-1 lead in their second-round playoff series.

Svechnikov sprang into the circle to beat John Carlson to the puck and beat Logan Thompson at 12:34 of the second for the game’s first goal in what turned out to be the start of Carolina’s game-seizing surge.

Jack Roslovic added a power-play goal late in the second period for the Hurricanes, while Eric Robinson charged up the left side to beat Thompson early in the third to make it 3-0.

Jackson Blake added a clinching power-play finish near the post late as the Hurricanes improved to 4-0 at home in the playoffs. A lot of that has had to do with their goaltender.

“[Tonight] might’ve been one of the better games he’s played for us,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said of Andersen.

The Hurricanes dominated play in the series opener but needed Jaccob Slavin‘s overtime goal to push through on the road. The Capitals did a better job of countering in Game 2 and tied the series behind a strong two-way effort from Tom Wilson.

The Capitals seemingly had reversed the script on Carolina with a strong start, which included Andersen having to stand up to an immediate skating-in chance by Wilson and an early shot from Taylor Raddysh while the Hurricanes struggled to get on their aggressive game.

“I liked our start,” Washington coach Spencer Carbery said. “But once we got down, it’s a tough spot for us as a team. It’s gets off track for us, and after that, our puck play was not great.”

And Andersen was strong throughout — carrying the load until the Hurricanes finally asserted control once Svechnikov broke the scoreless tie. In fact, Washington managed just one shot through 14 critical minutes of the second, spanning Svechnikov’s score and before to Roslovic’s man-advantage finish.

“Even we get down 1-0, even 2-0, we still felt fine about the game,” Carbery said. “But our puck was really slipped after that, and we really struggled with it.”

Thompson finished with 24 saves for Washington, while the Capitals managed just 10 shots in the final 39-plus minutes.

“Our first period was a little bit sloppy,” Svechnikov said. “But we came out hard in the second period, and just continued doing that.”

In the victory, Carolina’s Jordan Martinook left the game, but Brind’Amour did not have an update on his status in his postgame media availability. “Hopefully, he’ll be OK,” the coach said.

Game 4 in the best-of-seven series is Monday night in Raleigh.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Pickard injured, Skinner to start Gm. 3 for Oilers

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Pickard injured, Skinner to start Gm. 3 for Oilers

EDMONTON, Alberta — The Oilers switched goaltenders for Game 3 of their second-round playoff series against the Golden Knights, with Stuart Skinner replacing Calvin Pickard for Saturday night.

Pickard, who took over as Edmonton’s starter during a first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings, was day-to-day, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said.

Pickard was stellar in Edmonton’s 5-4 overtime win in Game 2 with 28 saves, but he appeared uncomfortable in the third period and was seen shaking out his left leg.

He replaced regular-season starter Skinner when the Oilers trailed the Kings 2-0 in the first round. Edmonton won six in a row with Pickard in net and took a 2-0 series lead home from Las Vegas to Rogers Place. Skinner is 19-17 in career playoff games with the Oilers.

Also on Saturday, Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters that defenseman Brayden McNabb and forward Brandon Saad are both out of the lineup and considered day-to-day.

McNabb exited Game 2 after receiving a check to the boards by Oilers forward Viktor Arvidsson in overtime. Saad is being held out with an undisclosed ailment.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

The second-round series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have entered the “venue change” stage, where the previous visitors are now playing host.

The Carolina Hurricanes headed back to the Lenovo Center with a 1-1 series against the Washington Capitals, and they’ll pick up hostilities at 6 p.m. ET Saturday. The Edmonton Oilers traveled back to Rogers Place holding a 2-0 lead over the Vegas Golden Knights; Game 3 of that series is 9 p.m. ET Saturday.

What will the series tally be in Caps-Canes when it heads back to D.C. — and will the Knights win at least one in Alberta so they even see a Game 5 back in Las Vegas?

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Friday’s games and the three stars of Friday from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 3 | 6 p.m. ET | TNT

With the Canes and Capitals tied up 1-1 heading to Raleigh for Games 3 and 4, ESPN BET has Carolina as the -215 series favorite. Washington is +180 to win the series.

Capitals defenseman John Carlson scored a power-play goal in Game 2, his 13th career playoff power-play goal, which breaks a tie with Brian Leetch for third for such goals by an American-born defenseman. He still trails Chris Chelios (14) and Brian Rafalski (17).

For the first time in his postseason career, Tom Wilson reached all of these thresholds: 2 points, 3 shots on goal, 2 hits and 2 blocked shots. His seven points this season is the most he has had in a playoff run since the Cup-winning year of 2018 (15).

The Hurricanes have not held an in-game lead since Game 4 of the first round against the Devils. They won the series in Game 5 in a double-overtime game, then won Game 1 of this series 2-1 in OT after trailing 1-0. Since that lead in Game 4 of the first round, they have trailed for 89:28 and been tied for 117:55.

Among qualified goaltenders this postseason, Frederik Andersen leads by a wide margin in goals-against average (1.55), and is second in save percentage, at .930. The netminder ahead of him in SV%? Washington’s Logan Thompson.

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 9 p.m. ET | TNT

Following two wins by the Oilers in Vegas, ESPN BET now lists Edmonton as the -550 favorites to win this series, with the Golden Knights at +380. Edmonton is also the current favorite to win the Cup, at +300, narrowly ahead of the Stars, at +325. Vegas is now +1800, the longest odds of any team remaining in the playoffs.

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid combined to score the game-winning OT goal in Game 2. It was the second OT goal this postseason for Draisaitl, and he is now tied for the most such goals in a single postseason in Oilers history with Esa Tikkanen in 1991.

McDavid is second among playoff scorers with 14 points through eight games, trailing only Mikko Rantanen‘s 15. McDavid’s 1.75 points per game this postseason is ahead of his rate in playoff seasons past (1.58) and well ahead of his rate during last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final (1.36).

Victor Olofsson had two goals and an assist in a losing effort in Game 2. Both goals were on the power play, and he joins Jack Eichel as the only players in Knights history with multiple power-play goals in a single playoff game.

Speaking of Eichel, he finished with three assists, joining Shea Theodore and William Karlsson as the only players in Knights history with two three-assist playoff games on their résumé.


Öcal’s three stars from Friday

After a rough first round against the Blues, Hellebuyck shut out the Stars in Game 2. He made 21 saves en route to the fourth clean sheet of his postseason career.

Ehlers had his second career multigoal game and added an assist in a big Game 2 effort that tied Winnipeg’s series with Dallas 1-1.

The former Bruin continues to haunt the Maple Leafs, this time with the overtime winner to get the Panthers on the series board at 2-1. It was his fourth career playoff OT goal, and he extended his own NHL record for most consecutive postseasons with a game-winning goal (nine).


Friday’s recaps

Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
TOR leads 2-1 | Game 4 Sunday

Toronto entered with a 2-0 series lead and got out to a 2-0 start in the game as well, with goals from Matthew Knies and John Tavares, before Aleksander Barkov drew the Panthers back to within a goal with his third goal of the postseason. Tavares added a power-play tally at 2:52 of the second period on a slick deflection, before the Panthers ripped off two goals in quick succession to tie the score. The first was thanks to Sam Reinhart poking the puck in during a wild scramble in the Leafs’ crease, the second after a superb pass from Sam Bennett to Carter Verhaeghe. Jonah Gadjovich put the home squad up 4-3, but Morgan Rielly tied things up midway through the third. It took until the final five minutes of the first OT, but Brad Marchand came through with another game-winning goal. Full recap.

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Brad Marchand’s OT winner sparks pandemonium from Panthers crowd

Brad Marchand scores a massive overtime goal to deliver the Panthers a 5-4 win over the Maple Leafs.

Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
Series tied 1-1 | Game 3 Sunday

If this is the kind of goaltending the Jets will now get from Connor Hellebuyck, the Stars (and the rest of the NHL) are in trouble. Hellebuyck stopped all 21 shots sent on the Jets’ goal en route to his fourth career postseason shutout. On the offensive side, Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers got the party started in the first. Adam Lowry added his fourth goal of the postseason in the second, and that 3-0 lead stood until 16:20 of the third, when Ehlers capped off the festivities with an empty-net goal. Full recap.

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0:26

Nikolaj Ehlers rolls in an empty-net goal for Winnipeg

Nikolaj Ehlers scores his second goal of the game to pad the Jets’ lead late in the third period vs. the Stars.

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