Oscars 2023 predictions: Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser? Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett? These are the stars and films we tip to win the big prizes this year
The 95th Academy Awards ceremony is almost upon us – the night the entire awards season has been building up to.
The Oscarsmark the culmination of months of campaigning and huge amounts of spending from studios, but unlike previous years, the 2023 shortlist comes with some uncertainty as to who will take home those gold statuettes.
While there’s an obvious frontrunner for the top prize of best picture, in some of the acting categories things are far less clear cut – making this potentially one of the most exciting ceremonies in a while. So let’s take a look at who is likely to win…
Image: Stephanie Hsu, Ke Huy Quan, Michelle Yeoh and James Hong in Everything Everywhere All At Once. Pic: A24
Best picture
Usually I’d build up to this but there’s such an obvious frontrunner it’s actually the easiest category to predict this year. Everything Everywhere All At Once has been sweeping ceremonies in the run-up to the Academy Awards (with the BAFTAs being the notable exception – war epic All Quiet On The Western Front was the night’s big winner there).
While it’s far from what may have been considered an ‘Oscary’ film in previous years, exploring the multiverse via hotdog fingers and a new take on the Disney classic Ratatouille, its appeal is undeniable. When it wins it will be proof that it is films with big ideas, rather than just a big budget, that appeal to modern Academy voters.
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Everything Everywhere star on Oscars nod
Best supporting actor
The next easiest to predict is best supporting actor, which will go to Ke Huy Quan for his role in Everything Everywhere All At Once. The star, who first found fame as a child actor in The Goonies and Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom in the 1980s, has been consistently winning throughout awards season.
He also gives lovely speeches and actually seems to enjoy the relentless slog of red carpets and events that nominees face in the run-up to the Oscars. A worthy winner, expect some tears on the night – from him and those watching.
Image: Kerry Condon pictured at the annual Academy Awards nominees luncheon in LA. Pic: AP/Chris Pizzello
Best supporting actress
A month ago I would have assumed Marvel would get its first acting win thanks to Angela Bassett‘s commanding performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. However, the tide of appreciation may have turned, as we’ve seen other nominees in this category – Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu and Kerry Condon – all picking up prizes at various ceremonies in the last few weeks. While Bassett is great in Wakanda Forever, I suspect if she does win it would be a case of voters showing their appreciation for her entire career, rather than this one superhero film.
I actually have a hunch this award will go to one of the five Irish actors nominated this year – I predict a win for Kerry Condon for her performance in The Banshees Of Inisherin. She won this same prize at the BAFTAs and there is definitely some crossover. With Banshees well liked but likely to miss out in other acting categories I think voters will show some love to the dark comedy here.
This has been the hardest one to predict for me. At the start of the year, I thought the best actor prize would go to Colin Farrell, star of The Banshees Of Inisherin, but his hopes seem to have faded as awards season has rumbled on. It seems now to be between Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Austin Butler for Elvis.
We know the Academy loves a transformative role and both performances tick that box, with Fraser playing a hugely obese man in heavy prosthetics, while Butler became the singer – even seemingly permanently changing his own speaking voice for the biopic. It’s almost too close to call but as I’ve promised predictions I’m going to plump for Fraser – his comeback narrative after years feeling cast out of Hollywood is itself like something from a screenplay, and probably too irresistible for many Academy voters.
Image: Cate Blanchett stars in Tar. Pic: Focus Features via AP
Best actress
This feels like another close race, between Cate Blanchett for her turn as the toxic composer Lydia Tar, and Michelle Yeoh for her performance as the multiverse-straddling lead of Everything Everywhere All At Once. While Yeoh surely has a strong chance of picking up a win, I suspect Blanchett will just edge it as she’s been consistently picking up prizes throughout awards season. I’m also guessing Tar is a very well liked film that perhaps won’t be recognised in other categories – and voters may be wary of ticking the Everything Everywhere box too many times.
Image: The Fabelmans. Pic: Amblin Entertainment/Universal Studios
Best director
This is another hard one to call, although this time perhaps because of my own personal bias. I would love to see Steven Spielberg picking up this award for his semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans; it seems bizarre to me that Spielberg has only won two directing Oscars, the last one was more than 20 years ago, in 1999. However, the momentum seems to be on the side of directing duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart, known collectively as the Daniels, who are behind Everything Everywhere All At Once. If they do take it, they will be the third pair to ever win best director.
You can watch the Academy Awards on Sunday 12 March from 11pm exclusively on Sky News and Sky Showcase.For everything you need to know ahead of the ceremony, listen to our special Oscars Backstage podcast – and don’t miss our winners episode from Monday morning
Hip hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs has lost a bid to delay his upcoming sex-trafficking trial by two months.
US district judge Arun Subramanian said the 55-year-old rapper made his request too close to his trial, which is due to start next month.
Jury selection is currently scheduled for 5 May with opening statements set to be heard seven days later.
Combs has pleaded not guilty to five criminal counts including racketeering and sex trafficking.
Prosecutors with the Manhattan US attorney’s office accuse Combs of using his business empire to sexually abuse women between 2004 and 2024.
Combs’s lawyers say the sexual activity described by prosecutors was consensual.
In a court filing on Wednesday, Combs’s lawyer Marc Agnifilo asked Mr Subramanian to delay the trial because he needed more time to prepare his defence to two new charges which were brought on 4 April.
The charges were of sex trafficking and transportation to engage in prostitution.
Mr Agnifilo also said his team needs extra time to review emails it wants an alleged victim to turn over.
The new allegations brought the total number of criminal charges against the rap mogul to five – following the three original counts, which also included racketeering conspiracy, filed in September.
Federal prosecutors were opposed to any delay, writing in a Thursday court filing that the additional charges brought earlier this month did not amount to substantially new conduct.
They also said Combs was not entitled to the alleged victim’s communications.
Image: A sketch of Combs during one of his court appearances. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, Mr Subramanian is weighing other evidentiary issues, such as whether to allow alleged victims to testify under pseudonyms.
Also known during his career as Puff Daddy and P Diddy, Combs founded Bad Boy Records and is credited with helping turn rappers and R&B singers such as Notorious B.I.G, Mary J. Blige, Faith Evans and Usher into stars in the 1990s and 2000s.
But prosecutors have said his success concealed a dark side.
They say his alleged abuse included having women take part in recorded sexual performances called “freak-offs” with male sex workers, who were sometimes transported across state lines.
Combs has been in jail in Brooklyn since September, having been denied bail.
He also faces dozens of civil lawsuits by women and men who have accused him of sexual abuse.
Combs has strenuously denied all allegations of wrongdoing.
Alex Garland says while it’s “the most obvious statement about life on this planet” that the world would be a better place without war, it “doesn’t mean it should never happen”, and there are “circumstances in which war is required”.
The Oscar-nominated screenwriter and director told Sky News: “I don’t think it is possible to make a statement about what war is really like without it being implicitly anti-war, inasmuch as it would be better if this thing did not happen.
“But that’s not the same as saying it should never happen. There are circumstances in which war is required.”
Image: (L-R) Co-writers and co-directors Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza. Pic: A24
His latest film, Warfare, embeds the audience within a platoon of American Navy SEALs on an Iraqi surveillance mission gone wrong, telling the story solely through the memories of war veterans from a real 2006 mission in Ramadi, Iraq.
Garland says the film is “anti-war in as much as it is better if war does not happen,” adding, “and that is about the most obvious statement about life on this planet that one could make.”
Comparing it to ongoing geopolitical conflict across the world, Garland goes on: “It would be better if Gaza had not been flattened. It would be better if Ukraine was not invaded. It would it better if all people’s problems could be solved via dialogue and not threat or violence…
“To be anti-war to me is a rational position, and most veterans I’ve met are anti-war.”
The screenwriter behind hits including Ex Machina, 28 Days Later and The Beach says this film is “an attempt to recreate something as faithfully and accurately as we could”.
Image: The film opens to Swedish dance hit Call On Me. Pic: A24
‘War veterans feel invisible and forgotten’
Almost entirely based on first-person accounts, the 15-rated film opens with soldiers singing along to the video of Swedish dance hit Call On Me – complete with gyrating women in thong leotards.
It’s the only music in the film. The remaining score is made up of explosions, sniper fire and screams of pain.
Garland co-wrote and co-directed the film alongside Hollywood stuntman and gunfight coordinator Ray Mendoza, whom Garland met on his last film, Civil War.
Mendoza, a communications officer on the fateful mission portrayed in the film, says despite the traumatic content, the experience of making the film was “therapeutic”.
Mendoza told Sky News: “It actually mended a lot of relationships… There were some guys I hadn’t spoken to in a very long time. And this allowed us to bury the hatchet, so to speak, on some issues from that day.”
Turning to Hollywood after serving in the Navy for 16 years, Mendoza says past war film he’d seen – even the good ones – were “a little off” because they “don’t get the culture right”.
Mendoza admits: “You feel like no one cares because they didn’t get it right. You feel invisible. You feel forgotten.”
With screenings of Warfare shown to around 1,000 veterans ahead of general release, Mendoza says: “They finally feel heard. They finally feel like somebody got it right.”
As to whether it could be triggering for some veterans, Mendoza says decisively not: “It’s not triggering. I would say it’s the opposite, for a veteran at least.”
Image: D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays communications officer Ray. Pic: A24
‘I’m an actor – I love my hair’
A tense and raw 90-minute story told in real time, the film’s ensemble cast is made up of young buzzy actors, dubbed “all of the internet’s boyfriends” when the casting was first announced.
Mirroring the Navy SEALs they were portraying, the cast initially bonded through a three-week bootcamp ahead of filming, before living together for the 25-day shoot.
Black Mirror’s Will Poulter, who plays Eric, the officer in charge of the operation, says the film’s extended takes and 360-degree sets demanded a special kind of focus.
Poulter said: “It required everyone to practise something that is fundamental to Navy SEAL mentality – you’re a teammate before you’re an individual.
“When a camera’s roaming around like that and could capture anyone at kind of any moment, it requires that everyone to be ‘on’ at all times and for the sake of each other.
“It becomes less about making sure that you’re performing when the camera lands on you, but as much about this idea that you are performing for the sake of the actor opposite you when the camera’s on them.”
Another of the film’s stars, Reservation Dogs’ D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, plays Mendoza and is the heart of the film.
Woon-A-Tai says the cast drew on tactics used by real soldiers to help with the intense filming schedule: “Laughter is medicine… A lot of times these are long takes, long hours, back-to-back days, so uplifting our spirit was definitely a big part of it.”
He also joked that shaving each other’s heads in a bonding ritual the night before the first day of filming was a daunting task.
“As actors, we love our hair. I mean, I speak personally, I love my hair. You know, I had really long hair. So yeah, it definitely takes a lot of trust. And you know, it wasn’t even at all, but you know it was still fun to do.”
“We’re fully on their side,” drummer Jimmy Brown told Sky News. “I think they shouldn’t give up, they should still be fighting.
“Working people shouldn’t have to take a reduction in their incomes, which is what we’re talking about here.
“We’re talking about people being paid less and it seems to me with prices going up, heating, buying food, inflation and rents going up then people need a decent wage to have a half decent life… keep going boys!”
Image: Members of the Unite union in Birmingham earlier this month. Pic: PA
Workers joined picket lines again on Thursday, with some fearing they could be up to £600 a month worse off if they accept the terms.
“We have total utter support for the bin men and all trade unions,” said guitarist Robin Campbell.
“The other side is always going to say they’ve made a reasonable offer – the point is they’re the ones who’ve messed up, they’re the ones who’ve gone bankrupt, they’re the ones now trying to reduce the bin men’s wages.”
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Lead singer Matt Doyle told Sky News: “It’s a shame that what we’re seeing is all the images of rats and rubbish building up, that is going to happen inevitably, but we’ve just got to keep fighting through that.”
About 22,000 tonnes of rubbish accumulated on the city’s streets after a major incident was declared last month by Birmingham City Council.
Image: Rubbish has blighted the city’s streets for weeks . Pic: PA
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Bin situation ‘pains me’ – council boss
On a visit to the city, local government minister Jim McMahon said the union and local authority should continue to meet in “good faith” and the government felt there was a deal that could be “marshalled around”.
He paid tribute to the “hundreds of workers” who have worked “around the clock” to clear the rubbish.
“As we stand here today, 85% of that accumulated waste has been cleared and the council have a plan in place now to make sure it doesn’t accumulate going forward,” said Mr McMahon.
Sky News understands talks are not set to resume until next week.