Amazon’s drone business can’t get off the ground as regulations, weak demand stymie progress
David Carbon, vice president of Prime Air at Amazon.com Inc., speaks during the Delivering the Future event at the Amazon Robotics Innovation Hub in Westborough, Massachusetts, US, on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In mid-January, Amazon’s drone delivery head David Carbon sat down for his weekly “AC/DC” video address to employees, where he gives the latest updates on Prime Air.
The acronym stands for A Coffee with David Carbon, and the event followed a very busy end to 2022. A decade after Prime Air’s launch, Amazon was starting drone deliveries in two small markets, bringing one of founder Jeff Bezos’ dreams closer to reality.
In the video, which was obtained by CNBC, Carbon told employees that Prime Air had recently kicked off durability and reliability (D&R) testing, a key federal regulatory requirement needed to prove Amazon’s drones can fly over people and towns.
“We started D&R and we’re into D&R as of the time of this filming by about 12 flights,” Carbon said. “So, really excited to get that behind us.”
However, there’s a cavernous gap between starting the process and finishing it, and employees could be forgiven for expressing skepticism.
Since at least last March, Carbon has been telling Prime Air staffers that D&R testing is underway, according to people who worked on the project and requested anonymity because they aren’t authorized to discuss it. He even had baseball caps made that said “D&R 2022” with the Prime Air logo on them.
But the Federal Aviation Administration didn’t provide clearance for testing until December, and the company began the campaign shortly after, in January of this year, Amazon said. Before a broader rollout, Prime Air must complete several hundred hours of flying without any incidents and then submit that data to the FAA, which oversees the approval process for commercial deliveries.
That all stands in the way of Prime Air’s expansion and its efforts to achieve Amazon’s wildly ambitious goal of whisking food, medicine and household products to shoppers’ doorsteps in 30 minutes or less.
Bezos predicted a decade ago that a fleet of Amazon drones would take to the skies in about five years. But as of now, drone delivery is restricted to two test markets — College Station, Texas, and Lockeford, California, a town of about 3,500 people located south of Sacramento.
Even in those hand-picked areas, operations have been hamstrung by FAA restrictions that prohibit the service from flying over people or roads, according to government records. That comes after years of challenges with crashes, missed deadlines and high turnover.
So, while Prime Air has signed up about 1,400 customers for the service between the two sites, it can only deliver to a handful of homes, three former employees said. In all, CNBC spoke to seven current and former Prime Air employees who said continued friction between Amazon and the FAA has slowed progress in getting drone delivery off the ground. They asked to remain anonymous because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.
Amazon told CNBC that thousands of residents have expressed interest in its drone-delivery service. The company said it’s making deliveries to a limited number of customers, with plans to expand over time.
CEO Andy Jassy, who succeeded Bezos in mid-2021, hasn’t talked a lot about Prime Air in public. He’s got much bigger problems to solve as Amazon navigates a period of deep cost cuts while trying to reaccelerate its business after revenue growth in 2022 was the slowest in the company’s quarter century on the public market.
But Jassy also wants to maintain a culture that’s thrived on big bets and risk-taking. His leadership circle, known as the S-team had previously set a goal of beginning drone deliveries in two locations by the end of 2022, according to two employees.
In January, a significant number of Prime Air workers were let go as part of the largest round of layoffs in Amazon’s history, totaling more than 18,000 people, CNBC previously reported. Prime Air sites in Lockeford, College Station and Pendleton, Oregon, were all hit by the job cuts, further straining operations.
The Lockeford site is now down to one pilot certified to operate commercial flights, a former employee said, so days after the layoffs were announced, Amazon flew a staffer there from College Station to help with deliveries.
Not that there’s much activity. Employees told CNBC that the Lockeford location can only deliver to two homes, which are located next door to one another and sit less than a mile from Amazon’s facility. Some details of the FAA restrictions were previously reported by The Information and Business Insider.
Employees who remain after the layoffs told CNBC that morale in the division has continued to sink since the cuts. With more work to do and less clarity on their parent company’s ongoing commitment to the mission, some are saying that they and their colleagues have started searching for jobs.
Maria Boschetti, an Amazon spokesperson, said in a statement that the layoffs and delays experienced by Prime Air haven’t affected its long-term plans for deliveries. The company is staffed to meet all applicable FAA requirements for safe operations and safety standards, she said.
“We’re as excited about it now as we were 10 years ago — but hard things can take time, this is a highly regulated industry, and we’re not immune to changes in the macro environment,” Boschetti said. “We continue to work closely with the FAA, and have a robust testing program and a team of hundreds in place who will continue to meet all regulatory requirements as we move forward and safely bring this service to more customers in more communities.”
Irrational confidence
Prime Air’s FAA problem is not a new phenomenon, and the company has long been working to try to maneuver through restrictions that limit its flying capabilities.
Of particular note was an effort in late 2021 to get a key rule changed. On Nov. 29 of that year, Sean Cassidy, Prime Air’s director of safety, flight operations and regulatory affairs, wrote to the FAA seeking relief from an order that dictates the operational conditions for Amazon’s drones, according to government filings.
Cassidy said in the letter that Amazon’s new MK27-2 drone had several safety upgrades from the earlier model, the MK27, that rendered many of the “conditions and limitations” set by the FAA obsolete. Among the restrictions Amazon sought to remove was a provision prohibiting Prime Air from flying its drones nearby or over people, roads and structures.
A year later, in November 2022, the FAA declined Amazon’s request. The agency said Amazon did not provide sufficient data to show that the MK27-2 could operate safely under those circumstances.
“Full durability and reliability parameters have not been established to permit” flying over or near people, the FAA said.
An Amazon drone operator loads the single shoebox-size box that can fit inside its MK27-2 Prime Air drone
Amazon
It was a surprising setback for Amazon. In early 2022, the company was so confident the FAA would soon lift the restrictions that, according to five employees, it paid for around three dozen staffers to temporarily live in hotels and Airbnbs in the area of Pendleton, a small town in rural eastern Oregon that’s about a three-hour drive from Portland.
Upon lifting of the restrictions, Amazon intended to move the workers to Lockeford and College Station, with the goal of beginning deliveries in the summer of 2022, the employees said.
But by October, the Pendleton crew was still “living out of their suitcases,” one employee said, while the company paid for their room and board.
The following month, Prime Air moved the employees to their respective sites, just in time for the FAA to deny Amazon’s effort for a reprieve. But the company opted to proceed anyway. On Christmas Eve, Carbon announced in a LinkedIn post that Prime Air had made its first deliveries in College Station and Lockeford.
“These are careful first steps that we will turn into giant leaps for our customers over the next number of years,” Carbon wrote.
Boschetti said Prime Air’s delivery team received “extensive training” at the Pendleton flight test facility before they were sent to delivery locations.
Some staffers viewed the launch as a rushed effort and questioned how the service would be able to operate fully without the ability to fly over roads or cars, former employees said.
What’s more, demand from Prime Air’s tiny customer base isn’t exactly soaring. At the Lockeford site, employees have to regularly contact the two households eligible for delivery to remind them to place orders, and Amazon incentivizes them with gift cards, according to two people familiar with the situation.
Meanwhile, Amazon is working on development of its next-generation Prime Air drone called the MK30, and known internally as CX-3. At an event in Boston in November, Carbon unveiled a mockup of the unmanned aircraft, which is supposed to be lighter and quieter than the MK27-2.
As of January, Carbon was still expressing optimism at his weekly AC/DC chats. He said Prime Air has a target to make of 10,000 deliveries this year between its two test sites, even with the D&R campaign unfinished and the FAA limitations firmly in place.
Carbon acknowledged that Prime Air “is not immune to the costs savings” that Jassy is implementing, but he sounded undeterred.
“This year is going to be a big year,” Carbon said. “We’ve got lots going on.”
The MK30, expected to launch in 2024, will have to go through the same regulatory process, including a separate D&R campaign, as well as so-called type certification, an even more rigorous FAA benchmark that allows a company to produce drones at scale.
It’s not a distinction the FAA is quick to hand out. Of all drone makers vying to deliver commercially, only one has received type certification — a startup called Matternet.
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Formula One F1 – United States Grand Prix – Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas, U.S. – October 23, 2022 Tim Cook waves the chequered flag to the race winner Red Bull’s Max Verstappen
Mike Segar | Reuters
Apple had two major launches last month. They couldn’t have been more different.
First, Apple revealed some of the artificial intelligence advancements it had been working on in the past year when it released developer versions of its operating systems to muted applause at its annual developer’s conference, WWDC. Then, at the end of the month, Apple hit the red carpet as its first true blockbuster movie, “F1,” debuted to over $155 million — and glowing reviews — in its first weekend.
While “F1” was a victory lap for Apple, highlighting the strength of its long-term outlook, the growth of its services business and its ability to tap into culture, Wall Street’s reaction to the company’s AI announcements at WWDC suggest there’s some trouble underneath the hood.
“F1” showed Apple at its best — in particular, its ability to invest in new, long-term projects. When Apple TV+ launched in 2019, it had only a handful of original shows and one movie, a film festival darling called “Hala” that didn’t even share its box office revenue.
Despite Apple TV+ being written off as a costly side-project, Apple stuck with its plan over the years, expanding its staff and operation in Culver City, California. That allowed the company to build up Hollywood connections, especially for TV shows, and build an entertainment track record. Now, an Apple Original can lead the box office on a summer weekend, the prime season for blockbuster films.
The success of “F1” also highlights Apple’s significant marketing machine and ability to get big-name talent to appear with its leadership. Apple pulled out all the stops to market the movie, including using its Wallet app to send a push notification with a discount for tickets to the film. To promote “F1,” Cook appeared with movie star Brad Pitt at an Apple store in New York and posted a video with actual F1 racer Lewis Hamilton, who was one of the film’s producers.
(L-R) Brad Pitt, Lewis Hamilton, Tim Cook, and Damson Idris attend the World Premiere of “F1: The Movie” in Times Square on June 16, 2025 in New York City.
Jamie Mccarthy | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Although Apple services chief Eddy Cue said in a recent interview that Apple needs the its film business to be profitable to “continue to do great things,” “F1” isn’t just about the bottom line for the company.
Apple’s Hollywood productions are perhaps the most prominent face of the company’s services business, a profit engine that has been an investor favorite since the iPhone maker started highlighting the division in 2016.
Films will only ever be a small fraction of the services unit, which also includes payments, iCloud subscriptions, magazine bundles, Apple Music, game bundles, warranties, fees related to digital payments and ad sales. Plus, even the biggest box office smashes would be small on Apple’s scale — the company does over $1 billion in sales on average every day.
But movies are the only services component that can get celebrities like Pitt or George Clooney to appear next to an Apple logo — and the success of “F1” means that Apple could do more big popcorn films in the future.
“Nothing breeds success or inspires future investment like a current success,” said Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
But if “F1” is a sign that Apple’s services business is in full throttle, the company’s AI struggles are a “check engine” light that won’t turn off.
Replacing Siri’s engine
At WWDC last month, Wall Street was eager to hear about the company’s plans for Apple Intelligence, its suite of AI features that it first revealed in 2024. Apple Intelligence, which is a key tenet of the company’s hardware products, had a rollout marred by delays and underwhelming features.
Apple spent most of WWDC going over smaller machine learning features, but did not reveal what investors and consumers increasingly want: A sophisticated Siri that can converse fluidly and get stuff done, like making a restaurant reservation. In the age of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude and Google’s Gemini, the expectation of AI assistants among consumers is growing beyond “Siri, how’s the weather?”
The company had previewed a significantly improved Siri in the summer of 2024, but earlier this year, those features were delayed to sometime in 2026. At WWDC, Apple didn’t offer any updates about the improved Siri beyond that the company was “continuing its work to deliver” the features in the “coming year.” Some observers reduced their expectations for Apple’s AI after the conference.
“Current expectations for Apple Intelligence to kickstart a super upgrade cycle are too high, in our view,” wrote Jefferies analysts this week.
Siri should be an example of how Apple’s ability to improve products and projects over the long-term makes it tough to compete with.
It beat nearly every other voice assistant to market when it first debuted on iPhones in 2011. Fourteen years later, Siri remains essentially the same one-off, rigid, question-and-answer system that struggles with open-ended questions and dates, even after the invention in recent years of sophisticated voice bots based on generative AI technology that can hold a conversation.
Apple’s strongest rivals, including Android parent Google, have done way more to integrate sophisticated AI assistants into their devices than Apple has. And Google doesn’t have the same reflex against collecting data and cloud processing as privacy-obsessed Apple.
Some analysts have said they believe Apple has a few years before the company’s lack of competitive AI features will start to show up in device sales, given the company’s large installed base and high customer loyalty. But Apple can’t get lapped before it re-enters the race, and its former design guru Jony Ive is now working on new hardware with OpenAI, ramping up the pressure in Cupertino.
“The three-year problem, which is within an investment time frame, is that Android is racing ahead,” Needham senior internet analyst Laura Martin said on CNBC this week.
Apple’s services success with projects like “F1” is an example of what the company can do when it sets clear goals in public and then executes them over extended time-frames.
Its AI strategy could use a similar long-term plan, as customers and investors wonder when Apple will fully embrace the technology that has captivated Silicon Valley.
Wall Street’s anxiety over Apple’s AI struggles was evident this week after Bloomberg reported that Apple was considering replacing Siri’s engine with Anthropic or OpenAI’s technology, as opposed to its own foundation models.
The move, if it were to happen, would contradict one of Apple’s most important strategies in the Cook era: Apple wants to own its core technologies, like the touchscreen, processor, modem and maps software, not buy them from suppliers.
Using external technology would be an admission that Apple Foundation Models aren’t good enough yet for what the company wants to do with Siri.
“They’ve fallen farther and farther behind, and they need to supercharge their generative AI efforts” Martin said. “They can’t do that internally.”
Apple might even pay billions for the use of Anthropic’s AI software, according to the Bloomberg report. If Apple were to pay for AI, it would be a reversal from current services deals, like the search deal with Alphabet where the Cupertino company gets paid $20 billion per year to push iPhone traffic to Google Search.
The company didn’t confirm the report and declined comment, but Wall Street welcomed the report and Apple shares rose.
In the world of AI in Silicon Valley, signing bonuses for the kinds of engineers that can develop new models can range up to $100 million, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
“I can’t see Apple doing that,” Martin said.
Earlier this week, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg sent a memo bragging about hiring 11 AI experts from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google’s DeepMind. That came after Zuckerberg hired Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang to lead a new AI division as part of a $14.3 billion deal.
Meta’s not the only company to spend hundreds of millions on AI celebrities to get them in the building. Google spent big to hire away the founders of Character.AI, Microsoft got its AI leader by striking a deal with Inflection and Amazon hired the executive team of Adept to bulk up its AI roster.
Apple, on the other hand, hasn’t announced any big AI hires in recent years. While Cook rubs shoulders with Pitt, the actual race may be passing Apple by.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks alongside U.S. President Donald Trump to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who bombarded President Donald Trump‘s signature spending bill for weeks, on Friday made his first comments since the legislation passed.
Musk backed a post on X by Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who said the bill’s budget “explodes the deficit” and continues a pattern of “short-term politicking over long-term sustainability.”
The House of Representatives narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on Thursday, sending it to Trump to sign into law.
Paul and Musk have been vocal opponents of Trump’s tax and spending bill, and repeatedly called out the potential for the spending package to increase the national debt.
On Monday, Musk called it the “DEBT SLAVERY bill.”
The independent Congressional Budget Office has said the bill could add $3.4 trillion to the $36.2 trillion of U.S. debt over the next decade. The White House has labeled the agency as “partisan” and continuously refuted the CBO’s estimates.
The bill includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts, increased spending for immigration enforcement and large cuts to funding for Medicaid and other programs.
It also cuts tax credits and support for solar and wind energy and electric vehicles, a particularly sore spot for Musk, who has several companies that benefit from the programs.
“I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in a social media post in early June as the pair traded insults and threats.
Shares of Tesla plummeted as the feud intensified, with the company losing $152 billion in market cap on June 5 and putting the company below $1 trillion in value. The stock has largely rebounded since, but is still below where it was trading before the ruckus with Trump.
Tesla one-month stock chart.
— CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger and Erin Doherty contributed to this article.
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