Amazon’s drone business can’t get off the ground as regulations, weak demand stymie progress
David Carbon, vice president of Prime Air at Amazon.com Inc., speaks during the Delivering the Future event at the Amazon Robotics Innovation Hub in Westborough, Massachusetts, US, on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In mid-January, Amazon’s drone delivery head David Carbon sat down for his weekly “AC/DC” video address to employees, where he gives the latest updates on Prime Air.
The acronym stands for A Coffee with David Carbon, and the event followed a very busy end to 2022. A decade after Prime Air’s launch, Amazon was starting drone deliveries in two small markets, bringing one of founder Jeff Bezos’ dreams closer to reality.
In the video, which was obtained by CNBC, Carbon told employees that Prime Air had recently kicked off durability and reliability (D&R) testing, a key federal regulatory requirement needed to prove Amazon’s drones can fly over people and towns.
“We started D&R and we’re into D&R as of the time of this filming by about 12 flights,” Carbon said. “So, really excited to get that behind us.”
However, there’s a cavernous gap between starting the process and finishing it, and employees could be forgiven for expressing skepticism.
Since at least last March, Carbon has been telling Prime Air staffers that D&R testing is underway, according to people who worked on the project and requested anonymity because they aren’t authorized to discuss it. He even had baseball caps made that said “D&R 2022” with the Prime Air logo on them.
But the Federal Aviation Administration didn’t provide clearance for testing until December, and the company began the campaign shortly after, in January of this year, Amazon said. Before a broader rollout, Prime Air must complete several hundred hours of flying without any incidents and then submit that data to the FAA, which oversees the approval process for commercial deliveries.
That all stands in the way of Prime Air’s expansion and its efforts to achieve Amazon’s wildly ambitious goal of whisking food, medicine and household products to shoppers’ doorsteps in 30 minutes or less.
Bezos predicted a decade ago that a fleet of Amazon drones would take to the skies in about five years. But as of now, drone delivery is restricted to two test markets — College Station, Texas, and Lockeford, California, a town of about 3,500 people located south of Sacramento.
Even in those hand-picked areas, operations have been hamstrung by FAA restrictions that prohibit the service from flying over people or roads, according to government records. That comes after years of challenges with crashes, missed deadlines and high turnover.
So, while Prime Air has signed up about 1,400 customers for the service between the two sites, it can only deliver to a handful of homes, three former employees said. In all, CNBC spoke to seven current and former Prime Air employees who said continued friction between Amazon and the FAA has slowed progress in getting drone delivery off the ground. They asked to remain anonymous because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.
Amazon told CNBC that thousands of residents have expressed interest in its drone-delivery service. The company said it’s making deliveries to a limited number of customers, with plans to expand over time.
CEO Andy Jassy, who succeeded Bezos in mid-2021, hasn’t talked a lot about Prime Air in public. He’s got much bigger problems to solve as Amazon navigates a period of deep cost cuts while trying to reaccelerate its business after revenue growth in 2022 was the slowest in the company’s quarter century on the public market.
But Jassy also wants to maintain a culture that’s thrived on big bets and risk-taking. His leadership circle, known as the S-team had previously set a goal of beginning drone deliveries in two locations by the end of 2022, according to two employees.
In January, a significant number of Prime Air workers were let go as part of the largest round of layoffs in Amazon’s history, totaling more than 18,000 people, CNBC previously reported. Prime Air sites in Lockeford, College Station and Pendleton, Oregon, were all hit by the job cuts, further straining operations.
The Lockeford site is now down to one pilot certified to operate commercial flights, a former employee said, so days after the layoffs were announced, Amazon flew a staffer there from College Station to help with deliveries.
Not that there’s much activity. Employees told CNBC that the Lockeford location can only deliver to two homes, which are located next door to one another and sit less than a mile from Amazon’s facility. Some details of the FAA restrictions were previously reported by The Information and Business Insider.
Employees who remain after the layoffs told CNBC that morale in the division has continued to sink since the cuts. With more work to do and less clarity on their parent company’s ongoing commitment to the mission, some are saying that they and their colleagues have started searching for jobs.
Maria Boschetti, an Amazon spokesperson, said in a statement that the layoffs and delays experienced by Prime Air haven’t affected its long-term plans for deliveries. The company is staffed to meet all applicable FAA requirements for safe operations and safety standards, she said.
“We’re as excited about it now as we were 10 years ago — but hard things can take time, this is a highly regulated industry, and we’re not immune to changes in the macro environment,” Boschetti said. “We continue to work closely with the FAA, and have a robust testing program and a team of hundreds in place who will continue to meet all regulatory requirements as we move forward and safely bring this service to more customers in more communities.”
Irrational confidence
Prime Air’s FAA problem is not a new phenomenon, and the company has long been working to try to maneuver through restrictions that limit its flying capabilities.
Of particular note was an effort in late 2021 to get a key rule changed. On Nov. 29 of that year, Sean Cassidy, Prime Air’s director of safety, flight operations and regulatory affairs, wrote to the FAA seeking relief from an order that dictates the operational conditions for Amazon’s drones, according to government filings.
Cassidy said in the letter that Amazon’s new MK27-2 drone had several safety upgrades from the earlier model, the MK27, that rendered many of the “conditions and limitations” set by the FAA obsolete. Among the restrictions Amazon sought to remove was a provision prohibiting Prime Air from flying its drones nearby or over people, roads and structures.
A year later, in November 2022, the FAA declined Amazon’s request. The agency said Amazon did not provide sufficient data to show that the MK27-2 could operate safely under those circumstances.
“Full durability and reliability parameters have not been established to permit” flying over or near people, the FAA said.
An Amazon drone operator loads the single shoebox-size box that can fit inside its MK27-2 Prime Air drone
Amazon
It was a surprising setback for Amazon. In early 2022, the company was so confident the FAA would soon lift the restrictions that, according to five employees, it paid for around three dozen staffers to temporarily live in hotels and Airbnbs in the area of Pendleton, a small town in rural eastern Oregon that’s about a three-hour drive from Portland.
Upon lifting of the restrictions, Amazon intended to move the workers to Lockeford and College Station, with the goal of beginning deliveries in the summer of 2022, the employees said.
But by October, the Pendleton crew was still “living out of their suitcases,” one employee said, while the company paid for their room and board.
The following month, Prime Air moved the employees to their respective sites, just in time for the FAA to deny Amazon’s effort for a reprieve. But the company opted to proceed anyway. On Christmas Eve, Carbon announced in a LinkedIn post that Prime Air had made its first deliveries in College Station and Lockeford.
“These are careful first steps that we will turn into giant leaps for our customers over the next number of years,” Carbon wrote.
Boschetti said Prime Air’s delivery team received “extensive training” at the Pendleton flight test facility before they were sent to delivery locations.
Some staffers viewed the launch as a rushed effort and questioned how the service would be able to operate fully without the ability to fly over roads or cars, former employees said.
What’s more, demand from Prime Air’s tiny customer base isn’t exactly soaring. At the Lockeford site, employees have to regularly contact the two households eligible for delivery to remind them to place orders, and Amazon incentivizes them with gift cards, according to two people familiar with the situation.
Meanwhile, Amazon is working on development of its next-generation Prime Air drone called the MK30, and known internally as CX-3. At an event in Boston in November, Carbon unveiled a mockup of the unmanned aircraft, which is supposed to be lighter and quieter than the MK27-2.
As of January, Carbon was still expressing optimism at his weekly AC/DC chats. He said Prime Air has a target to make of 10,000 deliveries this year between its two test sites, even with the D&R campaign unfinished and the FAA limitations firmly in place.
Carbon acknowledged that Prime Air “is not immune to the costs savings” that Jassy is implementing, but he sounded undeterred.
“This year is going to be a big year,” Carbon said. “We’ve got lots going on.”
The MK30, expected to launch in 2024, will have to go through the same regulatory process, including a separate D&R campaign, as well as so-called type certification, an even more rigorous FAA benchmark that allows a company to produce drones at scale.
It’s not a distinction the FAA is quick to hand out. Of all drone makers vying to deliver commercially, only one has received type certification — a startup called Matternet.
WATCH: Amazon CEO Andy jassy on shifting consumer spending habits
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai during the Google I/O developers conference in Mountain View, California, on May 10, 2023.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Alphabet‘s stock gained 3% Friday after signaling strong growth in its search and advertising businesses amid a competitive artificial intelligence environment and uncertain macro backdrop.
“GOOGL‘s pace of GenAI product roll-out is accelerating with multiple encouraging signals,” wrote Morgan Stanley‘s Brian Nowak. “Macro uncertainty still exists but we remain [overweight] given GOOGL’s still strong relative position and improving pace of GenAI enabled product roll-out.”
The search giant posted earnings of $2.81 per share on $90.23 billion in revenues. That topped the $89.12 billion in sales and $2.01 in EPS expected by LSEG analysts. Revenues grew 12% year-over-year and ahead of the 10% anticipated by Wall Street.
Net income rose 46% to $34.54 billion, or $2.81 per share. That’s up from $23.66 billion, or $1.89 per share, in the year-ago period. Alphabet said the figure included $8 billion in unrealized gains on its nonmarketable equity securities connected to its investment in a private company.
Adjusted earnings, excluding that gain, were $2.27 per share, according to LSEG, and topped analyst expectations.
Alphabet shares have pulled back about 16% this year as it battles volatility spurred by mounting trade war fears and worries that President Donald Trump‘s tariffs could crush the global economy. That would make it more difficult for Alphabet to potentially acquire infrastructure for data centers powering AI models as it faces off against competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic to develop largely language models.
During Thursday’s call with investors, Alphabet suggested that it’s too soon to tally the total impact of tariffs. However, Google’s business chief Philipp Schindler said that ending the de minimis trade exemption in May, which created a loophole benefitting many Chinese e-commerce retailers, could create a “slight headwind” for the company’s ads business, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region. The loophole allows shipments under $800 to come into the U.S. duty-free.
Despite this backdrop, Alphabet showed steady growth in its advertising and search business, reporting $66.89 billion in revenues for its advertising unit. That reflected 8.5% growth from the year-ago period. The company reported $8.93 billion in advertising revenue for its YouTube business, shy of an $8.97 billion estimate from StreetAccount.
Alphabet’s “Search and other” unit rose 9.8% to $50.7 billion, up from $46.16 billion last year. The company said that its AI Overviews tool used in its Google search results page has accumulated 1.5 billion monthly users from a billion in October.
Bank of America analyst Justin Post said that Wall Street is underestimating the upside potential and “monetization ramp” from this tool and cloud demand fueled by AI.
“The strong 1Q search performance, along with constructive comments on Gemini [large language model] performance and [AI Overviews] adoption could help alleviate some investor concerns on AI competition,” Post wrote in a note.
WATCH: Gemini delivering well for Google, says Check Capital’s Chris Ballard
CNBC’s Jennifer Elias contributed to this report.
An Amazon employee works to fulfill same-day orders during Cyber Monday, one of the company’s busiest days at an Amazon fulfillment center on December 2, 2024 in Orlando, Florida.
Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo | Getty Images
For 10 years, Aaron Cordovez has been selling kitchen appliances on Amazon. Now he’s in a bind, because most of his products are manufactured in China.
Cordovez, co-founder of Zulay Kitchen, said his company is moving “as fast as we can” to move production to India, Mexico and other markets, where tariffs are increasing under President Donald Trump, but are mild compared with the levies imposed on goods from China. That process will likely take at least a year or two to complete, he said.
“We’re making our inventory last as long as we can,” Cordovez said in an email.
Zulay is also temporarily raising the price of some of its milk frothers, smores roasting sticks and other products. The company’s popular kitchen strainer now costs $12.99, up from $9.99 before Trump announced his sweeping tariff proposal earlier this month.
Amazon merchants are hiking prices for everything from diaper bags and refrigerator magnets to charm necklaces and other top-selling items as they confront higher import costs. E-commerce software company SmartScout tracked 930 products on Amazon that have seen increased prices since April 9, with an average jump of 29%.
The price hikes affect a range of categories, including clothing, jewelry, household items, office supplies, electronics and toys.
The trade war with China has threatened to upend sellers on Amazon’s third-party marketplace, which accounts for about 60% of the company’s online sales. Many merchants are based in China or rely on the world’s second-largest economy to source and assemble their products.
Sellers are now faced with the conundrum of raising prices or eating the extra costs associated with Trump’s new tariffs. It’s an existential threat for many sellers, who subsist on razor-thin margins and have, for the last several years, dealt with rising costs on Amazon tied to storage, fulfillment, shipping and advertising fees along with pricing pressure from increased competition.
CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC earlier this month that the company was “going to try and do everything we can” to keep prices low for shoppers, including renegotiating terms with some of its suppliers. But he acknowledged some third-party sellers will “need to pass that cost” of tariffs on to consumers.
Amazon’s stock price is down 15% so far this year, sliding along with the broader market. The company reports first-quarter earnings next week.
Goods imported from China now face import duties of 145%, though Trump said Wednesday his administration is “actively” talking with China about a potential deal to lower tariffs. Chinese officials on Thursday denied that trade talks are taking place.
About 25% of the price increases observed by SmartScout were initiated by sellers based in China, said Scott Needham, the company’s CEO. Last week, stainless steel jewelry maker Ursteel hiked prices on four of its products by $6.50, while apparel brand Chouyatou raised the price of some of its dresses by $2. Both businesses are based in China’s Zhejiang province.
Anker, a Chinese electronics brand and one of Amazon’s largest sellers, has raised prices on one-fifth of its products sold in the U.S., including a portable power bank, which went up to $135 from $110, SmartScout data shows.
Representatives from Anker, Ursteel and Chouyatou didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Zulay, headquartered in Florida, is one of many U.S.-based sellers raising prices. The company is also cutting costs. Cordovez said he’s been forced to lay off 19% of his workforce and slash online ad spending by 85%.
Desert Cactus, based in Illinois, is also taking action. Joe Stefani, the company’s president, has been looking to move production of some of his brand’s college-themed merchandise out of China and into Mexico, India and Vietnam. About half of Desert Cactus’ goods come from China, while the rest are made in the U.S., Stefani said.
An Amazon worker moves a cart filled with packages at an Amazon delivery station in Alpharetta, Georgia, on Nov. 28, 2022.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
One of the company’s top products is a customizable license plate frame that’s manufactured in China. At the start of Trump’s first term in 2016, Stefani’s company paid import and shipping fees of 4% on the license plates. That rate has since skyrocketed to 170%, he said.
“The tariffs can’t stay this high,” Stefani said. “There’s so many people that just aren’t going to make it.”
Stefani said he expects Desert Cactus will end up raising prices on some products, though he’s worried shoppers might be put off by sticker shock.
“Will someone be willing to pay $50 for a hat on Amazon?” Stefani said. “You know it’s going to be expensive at the ballpark, but on Amazon we don’t know.”
Dave Dama, co-founder of health and beauty business Pure Daily Care, said the price to manufacture one of his skin-care products in China jumped to $25 from $10. Most Amazon sellers will have no choice but to raise prices, he said.
“If you were selling something for $40 and making a $7 or $8 profit at the end of the day, with these tariffs, those days are gone,” Dama said. “You can’t do that anymore. It’s unsustainable.”
Pure Daily Care plans to stagger price increases over several weeks, and only on products “we absolutely need to,” to keep Amazon’s algorithms from ranking it lower in search results or losing the valuable buy box, he said. The buy box determines which listing pops up first when a shopper clicks on a particular product, and the one that gets purchased when they tap “Add to Cart.”
An Amazon spokesperson said the company’s pricing policies continue to apply.
“As always, sellers set their own prices, and we regularly monitor how we highlight great prices as Featured Offers to provide customers with low prices across a wide selection,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
Dama said his company has enough inventory for some products to last up to six months, which it aims to “stretch as long as possible” in the hope that China and the U.S. can reach a trade deal. The company is also forgoing some sales promotions and discounts, while pausing spend on some display and video ads.
Regarding his inventory, Dama said, “We can try to stretch that seven, eight, nine months, which buys us a lot more time for this thing to work out, hopefully.”
A Pony.ai autonomous car.
Pony.ai
Chinese start-up Pony.ai said Friday it will develop autonomous driving technology in partnership with Tencent Cloud and deploy robotaxi services on tech giant Tencent’s WeChat and other applications.
The Nasdaq-listed company which specializes in autonomous vehicle technology, particularly robotaxis and robotrucks, said in a press release that the deal will include cooperation in areas such as cloud services, map data, information security and intelligent cockpit ecosystems.
The arrangement will also see the two companies integrate Pony.ai’s robotaxi ride-hailing services within Tencent’s popular WeChat app as well as other applications like Tencent Maps.
Both companies had been in talks “for quite some time,” Pony.ai CEO James Peng told CNBC on the sidelines of the Shanghai Auto Show on Friday. He cited Tencent’s huge user base and its cloud offerings as factors supporting the “win-win” collaboration as the start-up continues to scale up.
Following the partnership, Peng said that “hopefully in the near future,” users would be able to call Pony.ai robotaxi rides straight through the WeChat app.
WeChat is known as the world’s most popular ‘super app,’ housing everything from messaging to payment transactions to food delivery services, with a monthly user base of over 1 billion people.
“Pony.ai possesses industry-leading autonomous driving technology accumulations, while Tencent excels in cloud services, mapping, and cockpit ecosystem technologies,” Vice President of Tencent Group and President of Tencent Smart Mobility Zhong Xiangping was quoted as saying in the Friday release.
“This strategic partnership between the two parties is not only about complementing each other’s technologies and resources but also marks a new starting point for collaborative innovation,” he added.
The release said that the partnership would also see both companies collaborate on the development, testing, and operation of Robotaxis, particularly in L4-level autonomous driving.
According to SAE International, L4 is a type of autonomous driving that allows drivers to take their eyes off the road in designated areas. For comparison, L3 is considered a hands-off system, but drivers must actively monitor the vehicle and be ready to take over the wheel.
The Tencent Cloud agreement comes a day after it was reported that Pony.ai unveiled its L4, seventh-generation robotaxi solution at the Shanghai Auto Show on Wednesday. The company’s shares surged about 40% in the U.S. on Thursday.
The start-up continues to establish itself as a prominent player in China’s autonomous driving industry. The company obtained China’s first permit to charge fares for fully driverless taxis in core parts of a business district of Shenzhen, where Tencent is headquartered.
However, the firm may be implicated in increasing trade tensions between China and the U.S. as the latter is a market Pony.ai considers “hugely important” to its expansion plans.
James Peng, co-founder and chief executive of Pony.ai this week reportedly told the Financial Times that the company is considering a secondary listing outside the U.S. amid mounting concerns that Washington will push for the delisting of Chinese companies off the New York Stock Exchange.
If this were to happen, it would come less than six months after the company’s initial public offering in the U.S. Notwithstanding, Peng told FT that a lot of factors need to be considered.
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