Realignment roundtable: Next steps, Notre Dame and unrealistic relegation dreams
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ESPN staff
We’re getting closer and closer to seeing major changes in college football. Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and BYU are all set to enter the Big 12 on July 1. And in the summer of 2024, we’ll see Oklahoma and Texas join the SEC and UCLA and USC will head to the Big Ten.
With those moves set in stone, and surely more to come soon, our reporters discuss what the future of realignment might look like in college football and give their wildest wishes for the sport.
What’s the next domino to fall?
Bill Connelly: The next logical move will come when the Pac-12 figures out the valuations for its next set of media contracts. If it’s competitive enough to what the Big 12 has arranged to pull in, then one assumes the Pac-12 will add two programs — with San Diego State and SMU being the rumored front-runners (and UNLV, Boise State and others still hoping for a shot) — and everything will potentially stabilize for a bit. If the Pac-12’s estimates end up far short of expectation, then I guess we’ll find out exactly how serious the Big 12 is about potentially adding the Colorado–Utah–Arizona–Arizona State quartet of programs. Looming over all of this, of course, is whether the Big Ten decides to expand past 16 programs and add whatever combination of Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford is most attractive. But since the Big Ten doesn’t even have a commissioner or a full set of college presidents at the moment, we’ll hold off on wondering about that.
Adam Rittenberg: I agree with Bill in a sense, as the most immediate move could come from the Pac-12 once its media contract — with the existing 10 members — is finally set. But the next major move likely lies with the Big Ten. Although Commissioner Kevin Warren ultimately couldn’t get the league’s presidents on board with additional West Coast expansion beyond USC and UCLA, I’m told there was some support in the room. With Warren taking over as Chicago Bears president on April 17, could a new commissioner with perhaps a stronger presentation convince the Big Ten presidents and chancellors that adding Washington and Oregon makes sense? It’s possible. If it happens, there would be more seismic change around the sport. I don’t see anything happening right away given the importance of getting a commissioner in place and the general flux among the Big Ten president/chancellor group, which existed throughout Warren’s tenure. But once leadership is in place, the Big Ten could be the place to watch again.
Heather Dinich: One lesson learned after about two decades covering college football is that realignment is never over, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the next move wasn’t as seismic as the speculation might indicate. The Pac-12 could add San Diego State and SMU following its next television deal and that could be the extent of the “next round of realignment.” These decisions are made by the university presidents and chancellors, and unless there is a great disparity in revenue, they aren’t going to move their academic institutions, period. The question is, what’s the gap in revenue that would prompt Pac-12 presidents to seriously consider the Big 12? Ten million? Twenty? More? In the Big Ten, are there enough university presidents who would be willing to share the revenue with 18 schools? The Pac-12’s television deal holds the crux of these answers.
Will Notre Dame ever join the ACC or another conference?
David Hale: On good nights, I suspect ACC commissioner Jim Phillips dreams of a call from Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick announcing, “This is the day!” Amid a very uncertain future for the ACC, this would be akin to winning the lottery. All those big revenue issues would be addressed, the future would look bright and all would be right with the world. The small problem here is that it isn’t going to happen. Notre Dame’s contract with the ACC gives the Irish all it needs for its non-football sports and creates no incentive for them to join the ACC in football. With a new expanded playoff, the odds are even lower. And while the contract tethers the Irish, at least to a degree, to the ACC, buying their way out of that deal wouldn’t be impossible should the Big Ten make a particularly lucrative offer. In other words, Plan A for Notre Dame is independence. That’s also Plans B, C and D. And if a time comes where those options are off the table, the ACC is still unlikely to be Plan E.
Rittenberg: Notre Dame will only join a conference once the mythical super league is finally formed, and there’s a clear delineation between the programs competing at the highest level of the sport. I still think that’s another cycle or two away, but Notre Dame ultimately wants to compete for national championships. Until the school’s access to the championship stage is stripped away, it will remain independent in football. Independence means too much to Notre Dame’s identity. But if the sport trends toward some type of breakaway with 30-40 programs, Notre Dame will have to agree to change its status.
Dinich: Swarbrick told me last summer there are three potential reasons why the university would consider relinquishing its independent status: the loss of a committed broadcast partner; the loss of a fair route into the postseason; “or such an adverse financial consequence that you had to reconsider.” Any of those three factors seems highly unlikely anytime soon, and Notre Dame’s independence runs deeper than its football program. It’s a university-wide sense of identity and history, so deeply rooted that not even the news of the pending 16-team SEC and Big Ten was enough to rattle the Irish into change. The 12-team playoff will only help Notre Dame, and Swarbrick was one of the coauthors of the original proposal. If Notre Dame joins a conference, it probably won’t be during this leadership’s tenure.
Are we moving toward a future of just two super leagues?
Hale: The ultimate tipping point may come if and when the courts determine a serious shake-up of the college sports model is necessary. If athletes are deemed as employees, and schools that can spend the most on the best players have a built-in advantage, there essentially becomes no path forward for anyone playing outside the SEC and Big Ten. Regardless of the legal consequences, teams like Florida State, Clemson, Oregon or Washington, which aim to win national championships, would be in a move-or-die situation. Meanwhile, other schools less comfortable with the idea of college football as a semi-pro league might voluntarily opt to leave the mega conferences for something more akin to an Ivy League model. (Or, perhaps, be pushed out down the road. No one ever mentions contraction as an option, but financially, it makes a ton of sense.) As bad as the revenue disparities are shaping up to be right now, there’s only so many new football operations buildings and nutrition centers a school can build for recruiting purposes. But if schools are forced (or allowed) to pay athletes directly, then the correlation between money and wins will get far stronger, and the race to super conferences will be on.
Connelly: I still think the most likely scenario is more of a “power two and light heavyweight three” situation, not unlike what we see in European soccer. Even if the Big Ten and SEC expand beyond 16 schools — which, at this point, feels almost inevitable — there will still be a lot of schools willing and occasionally able to compete with lower budgets. Football is a pretty addictive pursuit, after all, and honestly, a 12-team playoff with spots for six conference champions might turn out to be a saving grace of sorts. Even if the SEC and Big Ten gobble up a majority of at-large bids in a given year, assuring at least five spots for teams outside of those conferences will assure that the rest of FBS, however it looks in the future, will have something to play for.
Dinich: It depends on what you consider “super leagues.” I’d argue the SEC and Big Ten will already qualify for that in 2024. There are too many other respectable FBS programs to try and sort that out, and for many of these university presidents, there is an academic bar that must be met if they are going to agree to bring other universities into their club. NIL will continue to drive a wedge between the wealthiest programs and everyone else, even within their own conferences (see Maryland and Ohio State), regardless of how large they become. Before presidents and conference commissioners think about superconferences, they should prepare to pay players.
What Group of 5 teams can make the jump to Power 5?
Rittenberg: San Diego State is positioned well to join the Pac-12 or Big 12 in the near future. There’s no other available FBS-playing school in Southern California after USC and UCLA’s departures to the Big Ten. San Diego State has had success in both football and men’s basketball, and its new stadium reflects its investment in football and wanting to raise its profile. SMU is more of a projection candidate because of the money around the school. Can SMU follow a TCU-like path to prominence as a Power 5 member? That’s the gamble with a smaller private school, despite an appealing Dallas location. The Big 12 clearly wants to move to the West, so I wonder if Boise State has enough appeal. The long-term football success there definitely helps. Memphis has a lot of ingredients to be in a Power 5 and seems to be getting left behind. The location doesn’t really help, but Memphis has invested in its top two programs. We’ll see if similar investments at South Florida better positions the school for the next round of realignment, after really getting left behind this time around.
Kyle Bonagura: I agree with Adam that San Diego State is the obvious choice. With a new stadium, the still somewhat-recent departure of the Los Angeles Chargers, the size of the market and sustained athletic success, SDSU is a no-brainer. However, they aren’t the only team in California that can make the jump. Fresno State can, too. It’s located in a region of the state with a large population base that doesn’t have great access to any professional teams and already has impressive fan support. With the added resources that would come with being at the Power 5 level, there would be a clear path for FSU to be able to compete regularly with mid-tier Power 5 programs. Especially when considered the Bulldogs are almost always able to compete as things stand.
Hale: “The jump” is really a two-part question. There are certainly programs that could join the Big 12 or ACC or Pac-12 and, within a couple years, field competitive teams. But is there a program out there that would also have a chance to grow into a serious brand — something that moves the needle financially? The additions for the Big 12 (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF) were about adding the next-best things, not creating true value for a league that just lost two genuine brands. The Pac-12’s flirtations with San Diego State or SMU offer some upside with two programs more than capable of winning, but will they become must-see TV for Oregon or Washington fans when their teams face off? There’s always long-term growth potential with places like USF or North Texas — but that’s a matter of decades, not years. And there are established fan bases for schools like Memphis or Navy, but they’re far from crown jewels that would fetch a hefty TV deal. The truth is, the entire idea of the Power 5 may be irrelevant soon, and the teams that truly move the needle in the big picture do so because of decades of success and fan investment. It’s nearly impossible to create that now at places where it doesn’t already exist.
Connelly: Let’s start with this: Not including one-year FBS member James Madison, there are 10 programs that have averaged a positive SP+ rating — meaning, they’re better than the average FBS team — over the past decade without being a power conference team (or Notre Dame): Boise State, Memphis, UCF, Appalachian State, Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Air Force and Marshall. Four of those programs just got gobbled up by the Big 12, and SDSU remains the leading candidate to join an expanded Pac-12 if or when the Pac-12 is able to expand. Geography suggests Memphis would be the top candidate if the Big 12 were to decide to expand further, and geography also suggests Boise State might continue to get the short end of the realignment stick. But with the four making the Big 12 jump this year, the list of obvious, high-potential candidates shrank considerably.
What’s the wildest move you would want to see?
Hale: Let’s just erase the blackboard and start from scratch. So many of college football’s ills are driven by the paradoxical influences of modern revenue generation and old-school tradition. TV money will pay Vanderbilt and Illinois more than Florida State or Clemson because of contractual ties from decades (or centuries) ago. The sport is constantly trying to fit square pegs into round holes. So let’s blow it up! If we’re moving toward super leagues, let’s shed the shackles of conference tie-ins from a time when teams traveled by train and build out a league that allows all programs who want to compete a chance to truly do so; that maintains long-standing rivalries that put actual butts in actual seats for the games; that gives players a fair slice of the pie. Oh, and have we mentioned promotion and relegation? How much time to do we have here?
Connelly: Oh, we’re absolutely going to talk about promotion and relegation, time be damned. I’ve spent far too many hours of my life thinking about it not to bring it up at every possible opportunity. We could remodel the entire NCAA ladder, from Division I to Division III, based on a relegation model, and we wouldn’t have to redraft conferences or anything. We set up conference affiliations across the board — the SEC with the Sun Belt, the Big 12 with Conference USA, the ACC with the AAC, the Pac-12 with the Mountain West, the Big Ten with the MAC (and then, the MAC with the Missouri Valley, etc.) — and off we go. The last-place team in the SEC (Vanderbilt) plays the first-place team in the Sun Belt (Troy) for a spot in next year’s SEC! Extra drama! A level of actual merit in power conference membership! Everybody wins with relegation! Except Vanderbilt! Acknowledging that won’t happen, however, what about relegation WITHIN a conference? What about a full-scale Pac-12 and Mountain West merger, where the bottom four teams from one tier trade places with the top four teams from the lower tier each year? Imagine a Pac-12 that trades last year’s dismal Cal, Arizona State, Stanford and Colorado teams for Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU and San Jose State? That’s a better conference! I can’t imagine the money would make sense here, but hey, that’s for money people to figure out! I’m just an irresponsible ideas guy!
Bonagura: Just sitting over here nodding in approval at the promotion-relegation concept. As realignment has shown, there are very few untouchable rivalry games in college football. Life goes on and people move on to whatever is new. So the idea that we need to preserve history for history’s sake is an outdated way to approach the sport. I think it’s best to think about college football’s structure is like this: If we were to start from scratch, what would it look like? Well, obviously, there would be no bowl games. Having mostly meaningless exhibition games at the end of the season doesn’t exist in any other sport. Why? Because it doesn’t make any sense. Let’s get rid of them. Yes, people still watch, but that’s because it’s football on TV and people like watching football on TV. It’s pretty simple. What would make the sport better is to create higher-stakes games at the end of the year — for everyone. Not just the teams at the top. And if a team is threatened with relegation to a lesser-tier conference, those end-of-the-season games carry real stakes. There is much more that would need to be ironed out, of course, but there is so much potential to create a much more exciting, relevant competitive structure.
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.
It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.
Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.
Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.
Teams are listed in order of record by league.
American League
59-35, first place, AL Central
Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers
Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.
Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.
And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.
55-38, first place, AL West
Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting
Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.
So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.
54-39, first place, American League East
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.
Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.
Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.
51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Third baseman and pitching
Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks
This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.
Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.
50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.
The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.
48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Corner infielder
Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.
Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe Speier–Matt Brash–Andrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.
49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.
Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.
National League
56-38, first place, NL West
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.
The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.
Chicago Cubs
54-38, first place, NL Central
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins
The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.
Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.
54-39, first place, National League East
Weakness: Bullpen and outfield
Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.
If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.
53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.
Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.
53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)
Weakness: Power
Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.
Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.
51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.
Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.
49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)
Weakness: Left field
Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.
Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson Merrill–Fernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.
49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.
The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays
47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Bullpen and big bat
Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.
If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.
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David Schoenfield
Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.
The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.
But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.
Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.
Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?
Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.
(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)
Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.
But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge
Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris
Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
The one that could get it done: Tigers
A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.
It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.
For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.
As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.
Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.
But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.
So, if the Braves are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe
Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia
Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins
The one that could get it done: Mariners
The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.
Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.
For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.
Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.
But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford
Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart
Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields
The one that could get it done: Phillies
The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.
Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.
Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.
The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.
Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.
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