Rishi Sunak seeks to maintain dialogue with China but will have to be clear about the threat
There’s a run on a bank, meltdown at the BBC about its proximity to government and Rishi Sunak needs to prove on Wednesday’s Budget that he has not abandoned growth.
Yet on Sunday the prime minister flew 5,000 miles to the US west coast to deal with a threat that may one day eclipse them all: China.
Mr Sunak will stand alongside US President Joe Biden and Australian PM Anthony Albanese and declare that China poses the biggest threat to the UK economy of any country, and what they plan to do about it.
This stops short of what Mr Sunak said during the leadership contest – that China poses the biggest long-term threat to Britain overall, implying some form of military danger.
Some analysts think that war over Taiwan could come in the second half of this decade, and no one knows how incendiary such a battle would be.
Nevertheless, the PM emphatically walked back from that on the plane with journalists on Sunday, saying it was neither “smart nor sophisticated” to use that language.
Some think that war over Taiwan could come in the second half of this decade
However what’s clear is that all three leaders have co-ordinated their language and approach to be unveiled on Monday, and that the mildly more moderate tone – which also saw Mr Sunak refuse to endorse the laboratory leak as the most likely cause of the pandemic – part of an approach to try and maintain a dialogue with China and not tip into unnecessary confrontation.
Leaving the door ajar, Mr Sunak said on the plane to the US that isolation was not the right approach, as it is effectively with Russia, suggesting he strongly believes future conflict is not yet inevitable.
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“The size of their economy, it is necessary and right to engage with them in order to try and make a difference on things that we care about, whether that is for example, tackling climate change, global health, macroeconomic stability- that’s what all our allies think,” he said.
“Whether it’s Chancellor Scholz or President Macron going next month… President Biden, Albanese, I think everyone shares exactly the same approach which is not to ignore China [but] to engage, be robust about defending things that we care about, and engage with what is a very large and influential player on the global scene on the areas where there’s common interest or we can shape things in a positive direction.”
None of this means the government isn’t clear-eyed about the potential Chinese threat. They see China able to mobilise any part of its economy to advance the goals of the state – hence the ban on TikTok on government phones over the weekend.
The UK banned TikTok on government phones over the weekend
There is recognition that half of the world’s shipping containers go through the straits of Taiwan, meaning that the economic disruption of war there would outweigh the impact of the invasion of Ukraine or the pandemic.
They saw what happened to free speech in Hong Kong and listened to the public pronouncements of President Xi Jinping, who just last week said the US and other “Western countries” were leading the “suppression” of China.
That is perhaps why the language might seem more moderate, but the actions in San Diego will not. Three of the biggest military powers in the world uniting to share intelligence and equipment to contain a threat in the Pacific is likely to be taken by China as a hostile act in itself.
In the latest update to the Integrated Review, Mr Sunak is effectively seeking to learn the lessons from Ukraine, creating new structures to speed up sanctions and ensure they are more effective. Meanwhile, building nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, at sites like the already-stretched Barrow in Furness site, is also likely to be greeted with concern by China.
The government believes that China is not yet at a tipping point where confrontation is inevitable. Whether the actions – if not the words spoken – of the next 36 hours make it more likely, however, remains to be seen.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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