Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s aggression over Taiwan threaten to create a world “defined by danger, disorder and division”, the UK prime minister has warned.
The 63-page document signalled that the world faced the biggest risk in decades of security threats escalating, including into “uncontrolled conflict” with nuclear weapons.
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The paper did not change the fundamental assessments of the original review, published in 2021, before Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the language was starker.
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Mr Sunak described the Chinese Communist Party as posing an “epoch-defining challenge”. It was previously described only as a “systemic challenge”.
He also set out how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was an assault on UK and wider European security.
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The prime minister explained how the security environment has changed over the past two years, with threats and challenges intensifying.
“Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, weaponisation of energy and food supplies and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, combined with China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, are threatening to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division – and an international order more favourable to authoritarianism,” he wrote in a foreword.
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4:32
Ukraine: Latest from Bakhmut frontline
£3bn more for nuclear weapons and submarine fleet
As a result of the evolving threats, Mr Sunak announced an extra £3bn over the next two years for the UK’s nuclear weapons and submarine fleet as well as an extra £1.9bn for ammunition stockpiles.
The document was released ahead of the government’s budget on Wednesday. It set out a plan to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, up from just over 2%, but without setting a timeframe.
Warning of future threats, the review said: “There is a growing prospect that the international security environment will further deteriorate in the coming years, with state threats increasing and diversifying in Europe and beyond.
“The risk of escalation is greater than at any time in decades, and an increasing number of advanced weapons systems have been developed and are being tested or adopted.”
It raised concern about the impact of a weakening in a set of arms control agreements between the United States and Russia.
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3:31
How could a China-Taiwan war hurt the economy?
“The strategic stability mechanisms that helped in the 21st century to mitigate the risks of misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation have not developed at the pace needed to ensure that competition does not spill over into uncontrolled conflict,” the text said.
The Integrated Review Refresh also cautioned about an increasing threat from Iran, which is advancing a nuclear weapons programme.
In addition, North Korea is “seeking to develop its nuclear capabilities while pursuing regionally destabilising activity through missile tests that threaten its neighbours”.
Much of the text reaffirmed and strengthened findings from the previous review.
But the 2023 update also include a specific section on UK policy towards China, balancing security concerns with a desire to engage with Beijing in areas of mutual interest such as climate change.
This nuanced approached may meet with criticism from certain members of the Conservative Party, including former prime minister Liz Truss, who have been much more hawkish.
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2:57
China ‘likely’ to invade Taiwan
‘Grow concerns’ over China’s government
The review talked about “growing concerns” over the actions of the Chinese government, including its strengthening relationship with Russia despite the war in Ukraine.
It also highlighted how China has pursued “rapid and opaque military modernisation with huge new investments, militarised disputed islands in the South China Sea, and refused to renounce the use of force to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan“.
Specifically on Taiwan, the UK reaffirmed its position that tensions over the self-governed island should be settled peacefully.
But Mr Sunak’s review also focused on the reality of Beijing’s size and significance. China accounts for being a fifth of the world economy.
The text said Britain would “engage constructively” with the Chinese government, business and people when it serves the national interest but would take “robust action” to tackle any threats.
A fire has ripped through a Russian missile depot in the Tver region deep inside the country after it was targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack, the defence ministry in Moscow has said.
Footage shows a second Ukrainian drone attack on the southwestern Russian region of Krasnodar also triggered a fire and caused a series of explosions.
Russia’s defence ministry has claimed its forces shot down 101 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory and occupied Crimea during the overnight attacks.
The drone strikes were carried out as Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskky said he is hoping to meet Donald Trump next week when he travels to the US – where he will present US President Joe Biden with a “victory plan” in relation to the war.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister said Russia appears to be planning strikes on Ukrainian nuclear facilities before the winter.
Posts on local Telegram channels said a Ukrainian drone attack struck an arms depot near the town of Toropets, in Russia’s Tver region – which is about 380 kilometres (240 miles) northwest of Moscow and about 500 kilometres (300 miles) from the Ukrainian border on Saturday.
Russian authorities closed a 100-kilometre (62-mile) stretch of a highway and evacuated passengers from a nearby rail station.
The depot appeared to be just miles from a Russian weapons arsenal storing missiles, bombs and ammunition in Tver that was struck by Ukrainian drones early Wednesday, injuring 13 people and also causing a huge fire.
Meanwhile, at least 1,200 people were evacuated from Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region after an ammunition depot and missile arsenal were struck in the second drone attack overnight, the local governor has said.
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Most of those evacuated were staying with friends and relatives, Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of Krasnodar region, said on the Telegram messaging app.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in either Tver or Krasnodar.
Ukraine warning of attacks on nuclear sites
It comes as Kyiv is urging the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukraine’s allies to establish permanent monitoring missions at the country’s nuclear plants as it warns they could be targeted in Russian attacks.
“In particular, it concerns open distribution devices at (nuclear power plants and) transmission substations, critical for the safe operation of nuclear energy,” foreign minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leader has said he plans to meet Republican presidential candidate Mr Trump on either Thursday or Friday next week.
During the trip, Mr Zelenskyy will present Mr Biden with a so-called victory plan as he hopes to bring about an end to the conflict.
The Ukrainian president has said the plan will include long-range striking capabilities and other weapons long sought by Kyiv, and will serve as the basis for any future negotiation with Russia.
He is also expected to push Washington to lift restrictions on long-range missile strikes inside Russia.
Mr Zelenskyy will attend sessions of the UN Security Council and General Assembly and also plans to meet vice president Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate in this year’s US election, in separate meetings on 26 September.
The developments come as three sources have told Reuters that Iran did not include mobile launchers with the close-range ballistic missiles that Washington has accused Tehran of delivering to Russia for use against Ukraine.
The sources – a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a US official – said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.
At least 44 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Gaza in the last 24 hours.
A strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut killed at least 31 people including three children and seven women, the country’s health minister Firas Abiad said.
Fifteen of the 68 wounded in the attack remain in hospital.
Ali Harake, the head of the rescue team searching through the rubble, told Sky News his team is still looking for between 17 and 18 missing people – though he fears none have survived.
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It is understood two apartment blocks in a densely populated southern neighbourhood collapsed in the strike – the deadliest attack on Beirut in decades.
Top Hezbollah commanders are believed to have been meeting in the basement of one of the buildings.
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Hezbollah has confirmed two of its senior commanders, Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi, died in the strike while an Israeli military spokesperson said that at least 16 Hezbollah militants were killed.
Wahbi oversaw the military operations of the Radwan special forces – a commando unit that seeks to infiltrate and carry out attacks in Israel – until early 2024. Aqil was also a top commander for the Iran-backed group.
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The Palestinian militant group Hamas has described the killing of Aqil as a “crime” and a “folly”, adding Israel will “pay the price”.
Meanwhile, at least 13 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza City, according to a local report.
The strikes are believed to have hit several schools sheltering displaced people in the southern part of the city.
The strikes come after Hezbollah launched one of its most intense bombardments of northern Israel in nearly a year of fighting, largely targeting Israeli military sites.
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system intercepted most of the Katyusha rockets.
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Hezbollah said its latest wave of rocket attacks was a response to past Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.
It came days after mass explosions of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies killed at least 37 people, including two children. Some 2,900 others were wounded in the assault which has been widely attributed to Israel.
The Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut came as the Lebanese caretaker government was having an emergency meeting to discuss the previous two days of pager and radio explosions.
It caused yet more shock in a nation which considers itself battle-hardened after years of strife, disaster and wars.
But Lebanon has been truly rocked to its core by the string of attacks over the past few days.
“These are war crimes,” one Lebanese minister told us.
He’s been on the US most wanted list for more than forty years after being accused of being involved in the bombing of the US embassy and US marine barracks in 1983 which killed hundreds.
But the Hezbollahstronghold of Dahieh is a heavily populated crowded residential area and packed with shops, markets, and high-rise apartments.
The strike appeared to have flattened an entire block, flipping cars and leaving other vehicles covered in a heavy blanket of thick dust and rubble.
Several people could be seen in video footage filmed by neighbours, trapped under piles of rubble.
The Lebanese health authority keeps on updating the number of people killed in the strike, with the latest figures reaching 14.
There are more than 60 injured, with some of those believed to be in critical condition. Children are said to be among the dead, missing and injured.
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0:24
Aftermath of IDF strike on Lebanon
‘Our actions speak for themselves’
The Israeli military immediately claimed success – saying that, along with Aqil, the strike had wiped out about 10 of his elite Radwan Force.
According to an IDF spokesman, who did not provide any evidence, Aqil’s team had been planning an attack into northern Israel similar to the Hamas attack on 7 October.
Both the prime minister and defence minister have vowed to restore security to the north of Israel so the 60,000 residents who have fled the cross-border attacks can return to their homes.
An estimated 120,000 Lebanese have also been forced out of their homes along the border.
The airstrike in the capital is the second in Beirut in two months – both, according to the IDF, targeted at senior Hezbollah commanders.
According to sources being quoted in Lebanese media, the Hezbollah group of senior leaders was meeting in an underground basement of a large housing block when the missile penetrated.
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It is unlikely to be seen as a justifiable precision attack – or a “targeted strike”, as described by the Israeli military – if the Lebanese government ministers’ reactions are anything to go by.
We spoke to several as they arrived for their emergency cabinet meeting in the hour before the attack.
They were already incensed by the back-to-back coordinated booby trap explosions of communication devices across the country. Israel has yet to confirm or deny its involvement in the blasts.
Speaking about the pager and radio explosions across Lebanon earlier this week, the country’s environment minister and head of its disaster management committee Nasser Yassin said: “It’s genocidal, it’s indiscriminate and a violation of international humanitarian law and every other law.
“We have an insane leadership on the southern end of our borders who don’t want to be indicted by the International Court of Justice.”
The information minister Ziad Makary called the explosions of communication devices “a new crime… it’s a war crime and not something that would pass easily trying to kill three thousand or four thousand civilians as we see them”.
And Amin Salam, the economy minister, warned: “Things are escalating by the minute.
“There’s more tension, more provocation. We have been doing our best to get to a peaceful solution but the escalation is unprecedented.
“It’s an act of terror, regardless of who was targeted.”
Most intense border fighting in nearly a year
The airstrike in Beirut came after a marked increase in cross-border exchanges – the most intense in nearly a year.
The Israeli military said Hezbollah had spent the early part of the day firing nearly 200 rockets across the border into Israel.
Many of them were intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system.
This followed the Israeli bombing of more than 50 targets in the south of Lebanon overnight – which the IDF said hit launchers and weapons stores.
The Israeli military is suffering losses too – there were two funerals today for Israeli soldiers killed on their northern border – but it’s Hezbollah which seems to be paying a far heavier price right now.
Hezbollah unilaterally entered this latest war on 8 October, much to the frustration of Lebanon’s caretaker government, and a day after the Hamas attack on southern Israel.
Hezbollah have repeatedly said their actions are in support of Gaza and have continued to insist they will only stop once there’s a ceasefire.
But right now, the fighting group allied to Iran – and designated a terror group by the US and UK – appears to be very much on the backfoot after three attacks in four days.
Meanwhile, Israel is ploughing on despite the cries of indignation and condemnation from the international community.
Additional reporting from Beirut with camera Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producers Jihad Jineid and Sami Zein.