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Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s aggression over Taiwan threaten to create a world “defined by danger, disorder and division”, the UK prime minister has warned.

Rishi Sunak predicted a “difficult and dangerous decade” as his government published a long-awaited update to a major defence, security and foreign policy review on Monday.

The 63-page document signalled that the world faced the biggest risk in decades of security threats escalating, including into “uncontrolled conflict” with nuclear weapons.

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The most immediate security priority was to tackle the threat posed by Russia’s war in Europe, the Integrated Review Refresh said.

But it warned that any future war in the Indo-Pacific, where tensions have increased with China over Taiwan, could have “global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine“.

The paper did not change the fundamental assessments of the original review, published in 2021, before Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the language was starker.

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Mr Sunak described the Chinese Communist Party as posing an “epoch-defining challenge”. It was previously described only as a “systemic challenge”.

He also set out how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was an assault on UK and wider European security.

The prime minister explained how the security environment has changed over the past two years, with threats and challenges intensifying.

“Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, weaponisation of energy and food supplies and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, combined with China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, are threatening to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division – and an international order more favourable to authoritarianism,” he wrote in a foreword.

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£3bn more for nuclear weapons and submarine fleet

As a result of the evolving threats, Mr Sunak announced an extra £3bn over the next two years for the UK’s nuclear weapons and submarine fleet as well as an extra £1.9bn for ammunition stockpiles.

The document was released ahead of the government’s budget on Wednesday. It set out a plan to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, up from just over 2%, but without setting a timeframe.

Warning of future threats, the review said: “There is a growing prospect that the international security environment will further deteriorate in the coming years, with state threats increasing and diversifying in Europe and beyond.

“The risk of escalation is greater than at any time in decades, and an increasing number of advanced weapons systems have been developed and are being tested or adopted.”

It raised concern about the impact of a weakening in a set of arms control agreements between the United States and Russia.

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How could a China-Taiwan war hurt the economy?

“The strategic stability mechanisms that helped in the 21st century to mitigate the risks of misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation have not developed at the pace needed to ensure that competition does not spill over into uncontrolled conflict,” the text said.

It added: “Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are increasing and conflict there could have global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine.”

Warnings about Iran and North Korea

The Integrated Review Refresh also cautioned about an increasing threat from Iran, which is advancing a nuclear weapons programme.

In addition, North Korea is “seeking to develop its nuclear capabilities while pursuing regionally destabilising activity through missile tests that threaten its neighbours”.

Much of the text reaffirmed and strengthened findings from the previous review.

But the 2023 update also include a specific section on UK policy towards China, balancing security concerns with a desire to engage with Beijing in areas of mutual interest such as climate change.

This nuanced approached may meet with criticism from certain members of the Conservative Party, including former prime minister Liz Truss, who have been much more hawkish.

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China ‘likely’ to invade Taiwan

‘Grow concerns’ over China’s government

The review talked about “growing concerns” over the actions of the Chinese government, including its strengthening relationship with Russia despite the war in Ukraine.

It also highlighted how China has pursued “rapid and opaque military modernisation with huge new investments, militarised disputed islands in the South China Sea, and refused to renounce the use of force to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan“.

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Specifically on Taiwan, the UK reaffirmed its position that tensions over the self-governed island should be settled peacefully.

But Mr Sunak’s review also focused on the reality of Beijing’s size and significance. China accounts for being a fifth of the world economy.

The text said Britain would “engage constructively” with the Chinese government, business and people when it serves the national interest but would take “robust action” to tackle any threats.

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Zelenskyy knows he risks another Oval Office ambush – but has to be a willing participant in peace talks

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Zelenskyy knows he risks another Oval Office ambush - but has to be a willing participant in peace talks

There will be no red carpet or fly past, no round of applause when Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Washington DC on Monday.

But the bitter memory of his last visit to the White House will feature prominently in the Ukrainian president’s thoughts.

In February, he was mocked for not wearing a suit and told he didn’t “have the cards” by US President Donald Trump, before being walked off the premises early, like an unruly patron being thrown out of the bar.

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Blow-by-blow: Inside Zelenskyy and Trump’s February clash

Zelenskyy knows he is risking another ambush in the Oval Office but has to present himself as a willing participant in peace talks, out of fear of being painted as the obstacle to a resolution.

There was initially measured optimism in Kyiv after Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, because it appeared that no deal had been cut between Washington and the Kremlin without Ukraine in the room, as had been feared.

But that restrained positivity quickly evaporated with the release of a statement by Trump the morning after the night before.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

In the heady heights of a meeting with strongman Putin, he seemed to have abandoned the one key thing that European leaders had impressed upon him – that there had to be an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine as an absolute starting point to a permanent resolution.

Trump had apparently reached the conclusion that no ceasefire was required. “The best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine… is to go directly to a peace agreement,” is how he put it on his Truth Social media account.

Read more:
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Trump-Putin summit – The Debrief

That sent shockwaves through Kyiv.

Many there and elsewhere believe Russia has no intention of stopping the war yet, and will use its military advantage on the battlefield to pressure Ukraine in drawn-out negotiations to give up more territory.

In the meantime, the slaughter of Ukrainians will continue.

It is the most dramatic of 180s from Trump, who before the meeting and after lobbying from European leaders had said he would not be happy if Putin failed to agree to a ceasefire, and even promised “severe consequences”.

Yet now reports suggest Trump is giving credence to the Russian position – in a phone call to Zelenskyy he laid out Putin’s proposal that Ukraine relinquishes even more territory, in return for an end to the war.

The Ukrainian president will have, no doubt, been distressed to see the pictures of Putin being greeted like a king on an American military base in Alaska. It is in direct contrast to how he was hosted on US soil.

In Trump’s orbit everything is a personality contest, and where he has very obvious deference to Putin, he has disdain for Zelenskyy. That makes the Ukrainian’s position very difficult.

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In maps: The territory Ukraine could be told to surrender in a ‘land for peace’ deal

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In maps: The territory Ukraine could be told to surrender in a 'land for peace' deal

Any agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin following their historic summit could leave Ukraine in an impossible position after three years of brutal, grinding war for survival.

While no deal was struck when they met in Alaska on Friday, the two leaders are believed to have discussed the possibility of Ukraine giving up territory in exchange for an end to the fighting.

That would effectively be an annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory by Russia by force.

Russia currently occupies around 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region it seized prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Use the slider above to see how much territory Russia controlled in March 2022 – when it controlled the most – compared with now.

Going into the summit, Mr Trump said he hoped to get “prime territory” back for Ukraine.

Mr Putin reportedly made demands to take control of key regions of Ukraine as a condition for ending the war during the summit.

The Russian leader is said to have told the US president that he wants the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, adding he would give up other Ukrainian territories held by his troops in return.

The land Russia wants to take would put Ukraine's eastern Dombas region fully under their control.
Image:
The land Russia wants to take would put Ukraine’s eastern Dombas region fully under their control.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said Mr Putin wants the rest of Donetsk – and in effect the entire eastern Donbas region – as part of a ceasefire plan.

He said Kyiv would reject the proposal and explained that such a move would deprive Ukraine of defensive lines and open the way for Moscow to conduct further offensives.

Read more: Vladimir Putin ‘demands key regions of Ukraine in exchange for peace’

Here, Sky News speaks to experts about what a deal between the Russian and American presidents in the coming days could mean for the battlefield.

Will Ukraine be forced to give up territory to Russia?

While Mr Trump’s attitude to Ukrainian resistance appears possibly more favourable from his recent comments, it’s still possible that Kyiv could be asked to give up territory as part of any agreement with Russia.

Moscow has been focused on four oblasts (regions) of Ukraine: Luhansk and Donetsk (the Donbas), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Mr Putin’s forces control almost all of Luhansk, but about 30% of the others remain in Ukrainian hands and are fiercely contested.

The regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine have been subject to fierce fighting
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The regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine have been subject to fierce fighting

“Russian rates of advance have picked up in the last month, but even though they are making ground, it would still take years (three or more) at current rates to capture all this territory,” Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the RUSI thinktank, told Sky News.

He says it “wouldn’t be surprising” if Russia tried to acquire the rest of the Donbas as part of negotiations – something that is “highly unattractive” for Ukraine and could leave them vulnerable in future.

This would include surrendering some of the “fortress belt” – a network of four settlements including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – that has held back Russian forces for 11 years.

Military analyst Michael Clarke said this might well satisfy Mr Putin “for now”, but many believe that he would return for the rest of Ukraine – possibly after Mr Trump leaves office.

Mr Zelenskyy has since rejected such a concession, however, saying he has no right to relinquish territory and that the Donbas would be a “springboard for a future new offensive” by Russia.

Would Russia have to return any territory to Ukraine?

The White House appears to have been briefing that it might, though the situation is very unclear.

Mr Savill added: “The Ukrainians might want to even up the situation in the north, by removing Russian incursions into Sumy and near Kharkiv, but of greater importance would be getting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant back under Ukrainian control, given how much it would contribute to Ukrainian power needs.”

It’s also possible that Russia could be willing to withdraw from the areas of Kherson region that it controls.

It’s “plausible” they could get the power plant back, Mr Clarke said, but Russia would likely insist on maintaining access to Crimea by land.

This would mean that cities Mariupol and Melitopol would remain in Russian hands, with all that that entails for the people living there.

Read more:
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A ceasefire along the frontline?

Michael Clarke told Sky News that the summit “certainly won’t create peace, but it might create a ceasefire in place if Putin decides to be flexible”.

“So far he hasn’t shown any flexibility at all,” he added.

A ceasefire along the frontline, with minimal withdrawals on both sides, would be “structurally changing” and an “astonishing outcome”, he said.

However, he doubts this will happen. Mr Clarke said a favourable outcome could be the two sides agreeing to a ceasefire that would start in two weeks (for instance), with threats of sanctions from the US if Russia or Ukraine breaks it.

No deal was reached at the summit itself, but the two leaders are expected to continue to speak in the coming days and weeks.

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‘You just need a bad day to get killed’: Defusing death in the former IS terror capital

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'You just need a bad day to get killed': Defusing death in the former IS terror capital

“If something goes wrong, there shouldn’t be multiple deaths. I should be the only one.”

Where once Islamic State ruled the land, the black flag of its caliphate heralding unspeakable violence and horrors in the city of Raqqa, now people are trying to return to normal lives.

But left behind are landmines, IEDs (improvised explosive devices), booby traps and other explosives that pose a deadly threat to civilians – years after the terror group was driven out of its former capital.

All over Syria, hundreds of thousands of people are returning to their homes after the fall of dictator Bashar al Assad. But the landscape is scarred with unexploded ordnance installed not just by IS, but by multiple sides in the decade-long civil war.

Mine disposal expert Sunil Thapa knows that every moment he works could be his last.

He is one of the most experienced ordnance disposal experts in the world, having defused explosives by hand for the last 19 years.

As he works in warzones across the globe, he thinks of his family and the colleagues whose lives the job has claimed over the years.

His day in Raqqa starts early, at 6am.

“Once you move out of your house, you can see the remnants of war,” the 39-year-old tells Sky News.

“You cannot see a single house in Raqqa that is in good condition. They are destroyed or you can see the footprints of explosive ordnance or bullets.

“When you go out, it disturbs your mind. It’s easy to imagine the ISIS (IS) occupation, how brutal fighting happened in this area. It will take years and years to rebuild.”

Sunil and his colleagues are only allowed to stray 300 metres from their accommodation for security reasons when not at work. But it’s a work day, so he’s headed out to the Mines Advisory Group’s (MAG) operational base.

There he briefs the teams and decides where to go first. There are often multiple sites in the area that need his expertise in defusing mines and explosives, so he has to prioritise.

MAG mine detection staff arrive for work. Pic: MAG
Image:
MAG mine detection staff arrive for work. Pic: MAG

“I go where I am needed most. The teams’ job is to detect the threat – landmines, cluster munitions or IEDs – it’s solely my responsibility to defuse them.”

He arrives at his first call of the day and instructs colleagues on what happens next, telling them how far the exclusion zone needs to be.

“The safety distance should be 100 metres for an anti-vehicle mine and 50 metres for an anti-personnel mine.

“Because while defusing explosives, if something goes wrong, there shouldn’t be multiple deaths. I should be the only one.

“I have dealt with thousands and thousands, I don’t even remember the numbers I have disarmed.”

IS fighters parade along the streets of Raqqa province in 2014. Pic: Reuters
Image:
IS fighters parade along the streets of Raqqa province in 2014. Pic: Reuters

Sunil shows Sky News an anti-vehicle mine that he has already made safe, talking through how he went about defusing it.

Step by step, he explains how he removed the rubber cap before turning elements of the mine in various directions to fully neutralise the explosive.

“But every time, before I reach to disarm, the first thing that comes into your mind is you remember your family. Then you beg to your God: ‘This time please allow me to go and meet my family’.”

He adds: “If people say they are not scared, they are probably lying. No matter how skilled you are, or how much experience you have, you just need a bad day to get killed.

“If I’m holding an anti-personnel mine and it slips from my hand and hits the ground with enough force, it will detonate.”

Sunil in front of a Red Crescent truck that hit a mine. Pic: MAG
Image:
Sunil in front of a Red Crescent truck that hit a mine. Pic: MAG

Sunil, from western Nepal, started out in the Nepali Army, disposing of landmines on two UN peacekeeping missions in Haiti and Mali.

Now he works for MAG, a global humanitarian organisation that finds, removes and destroys landmines, cluster munitions and unexploded bombs from places affected by conflict.

The group, which was supported by Princess Diana, was this week awarded the Conrad N Hilton Humanitarian Prize, the highest global humanitarian award recognising non-profits worldwide dedicated to alleviating human suffering.

Chief executive Darren Cormack said the prize is “recognition of the tireless and courageous work of our global staff”.

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The scale of MAG’s challenge in Syria is staggering.

Since the fall of Assad there have been more than 1,100 casualties from landmines and unexploded ordnance, including nearly 500 deaths, according to data from the INSO humanitarian organisation.

And the situation could get worse. Already this year more than half a million Syrians have returned to their homes. This is expected to rise to two million by the end of 2025, the UN says.

Sunil disarms each mine by hand - a dangerous task. Pic: MAG
Image:
Sunil disarms each mine by hand – a dangerous task. Pic: MAG

Sunil does the job for his wife and son, who live back home in Nepal. He says he will likely retire from his frontline job in a few years to spend more time with them.

After starting at 6am and working for hours in the hot sun, Sunil usually gets home around 2.30pm.

There are two restaurants he is allowed to visit in the small 300-metre secure zone around where he lives.

He sleeps for a couple of hours before dinner, exhausted from the day’s work in the field, and does a workout before turning in for the night.

The next day, he will again be up at 6am, ready to continue his dangerous but crucial work making Raqqa safer for its people. One landmine at a time.

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