Support for Scottish independence has continued to slide in the country, according to an exclusive YouGov poll for Sky News, with 46% backing an exit from the UK compared to 54% who want to remain part of the union.
Support is even lower when those who answered “don’t know” are included in the statistics – making it just 39% in favour of independence and 47% against.
But either way, the results show the support for the SNP’s leading mission has dropped compared to last month, when a poll of polls showed 50% backed leaving the UK.
The survey also revealed that, regardless of their view on independence, 52% of the public believed Scotland would still be part of the UK in 10 years’ time.
The polling was pretty evenly split on the performance of the Scottish government, with 44% thinking they were doing a good job and 46% deeming its performance bad.
But there seemed to be agreement that where the SNP administration had underperformed was in its handling of the NHS, with 62% saying it was doing badly on health.
The figures come as voting opens for SNP members to choose Nicola Sturgeon’s successor at the top of the party and as the new first minister of Scotland.
And they come just hours ahead of Sky News’ leadership debate at 7pm, which will see the three candidates – Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan – face questions from our political editor Beth Rigby live in Edinburgh.
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All three have pledged to continue the fight for independence – the driving force of the SNP’s political agenda.
When it came to the runners, the poll – which collected the views of 1,002 people online over the weekend – showed finance secretary Ms Forbes to be the most popular, with 27% saying she would be a good first minister.
A total of 22% said the same about health secretary Mr Yousaf and 14% thought positively of ex-minister Ms Regan.
But all three recorded higher figures when it came to those who thought they would be a bad leader of the country – 44% for Mr Yousaf, 39% for Ms Regan and 36% for Ms Forbes.
And most thought they would be worse at the top job than the outgoing Ms Sturgeon, with just 17% thinking Ms Forbes would do better, 8% thinking Ms Regan would be an improvement and 6% thinking Mr Yousaf would be an upgrade.
However, Ms Forbes got the highest figures for those who thought she would be a strong leader at 28%, competent at 37% and trustworthy at 30%.
And Mr Yousaf had the highest figures for the negative traits, with 39% saying he would be a weak leader, 40% saying he would be incompetent and 42% saying he was untrustworthy.
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What next for independence?
Ms Regan appeared to be the least known entity, with around 60% of respondents answering “don’t know” when asked the same questions about her.
The winner of the contest will be announced on 27 March.
Viewers will be able to watch live and for free on Freeview channel 233, Sky channel 501, Virgin 603, BT 313, as well as on the Sky News YouTube channel and on the Sky News App and website.
There will also be further insight and analysis in the Politics Hub and on Sky News’ social channels (TikTok, Instagram and Twitter) and podcasts.
It started with a strong espresso in a simple cafe on a side street in north London.
Several Algerian men were inside, a few others were outside on the pavement, smoking.
I’d been told the wanted prisoner might be in Finsbury Park, so I ordered a coffee and asked if they’d seen him.
Image: Spotting a man resembling the suspect, Tom and camera operator Josh Masters gave chase
They were happy to tell me that some of them knew Brahim Kaddour-Cherif – the 24-year-old offender who was on the run.
One of the customers revealed to me that he’d actually seen him the night before.
“He wants to hand himself to police,” the friend said candidly.
This was the beginning of the end of a high-profile manhunt.
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The Algerian convicted sex offender had been at large since 29 October, after he was mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth in south London.
Within an hour of meeting the friend in the cafe, he had followed myself and camera operator Josh Masters to a nearby street.
Image: Kaddour-Cherif was accidentally freed five days after the wrongful release of convicted sex offender Hadush Kebatu (pictured). They were both arrested separately in Finsbury Park. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
We weren’t yet filming – he didn’t want any attention or fuss surrounding him.
“Follow me, he’s in the park,” the man told me.
“Follow – but not too close.”
We did.
I was in the same park a few weeks ago after fugitive Hadush Kebatu, the Ethiopian sex offender – also wrongly released from prison – was arrested in Finsbury Park.
It was odd to be back in the same spot in such similar circumstances.
As he led us through the park past joggers, young families and people playing tennis, the man headed for the gates near Finsbury Park station.
All of a sudden, two police officers ran past us.
The Met had received a tip-off from a member of the public.
It was frantic. Undercover officers, uniformed cops, screeching tyres and blaring sirens. We were in the middle of the manhunt.
As they scoured the streets at speed, we walked by some of the Algerian men I’d seen in the cafe.
Image: Kaddour-Cherif walked up to a nearby police van as Tom continued to question him
One man near the group was wearing green tracksuit bottoms, a beanie hat and had glasses on.
“It’s him, it’s him,” one of the other men said to me, gesturing towards him.
The man in the beanie then quickly turned on his heel and walked off.
“It’s him, it’s him,” another guy agreed.
The suspect was walking off while the police were still searching the nearby streets.
Josh and I caught up with him and I asked directly: “Are you Brahim?”
You may have watched the exchange in the Sky News video – he was in denial, evasive and pretended the suspect had pedalled off on a Lime bike.
I can only guess he knew the game was up, but for whatever reason, he was keeping up the lie.
Image: Police moved in to handcuff him and used their phones to check an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms
Image: Once his identity was confirmed, Kaddour-Cherif was put into the back of the police van
Moments later, one of the bystanders told me “it is him” – with added urgency.
Only the prisoner knows why he then walked up to the nearby police van – officers quickly moved to handcuff him and tell him why he was being arrested.
Over the next 10 minutes, he became agitated. His story changed as I repeatedly asked if he had been the man inside HMP Wandsworth.
Officers needed confirmation too – one quickly pulled out a smartphone and checked an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms.
Nadjib had been on the lookout for the convicted sex offender, who had been spending time in different parts of north London since his release from HMP Wandsworth.
He even had a folded-up newspaper clipping in his pocket so that he could check the picture himself.
He told Sky News he was “very happy when he got arrested”.
“I don’t like the sex offenders,” he said.
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“I know him from the community. He has been around here every night since he was released from prison.”
Image: Nadjib (L) told Sky’s Tom Parmenter he had been looking out for the offender
Not only did he tip the police off about the prisoner’s whereabouts, but he also witnessed the other high-profile manhunt that ended in the same park last month.
Ethiopian asylum seeker Hadush Kebatu was also arrested in Finsbury Park after a 48-hour manhunt in the capital. He was then deported to Ethiopia.
Image: Brahim Kaddour-Cherif
“When he [Kebatu] got arrested in the park I was there,” Nadjib said.
I asked him why both men ended up in the same park in north London.
“Because the community, he came here for the community of Algerians,” he said.
Several Algerian people that I spoke to on Friday told me how shameful they thought it was that this sex offender was still on the run.
An NHS trust and a ward manager will be sentenced next week for health and safety failings – more than a decade after a young woman died in a secure mental health hospital.
Warning: This article contains references to suicide.
The decisions were reached after the joint-longest jury deliberation in English legal history.
Alice was 22 years old when she took her own life at London’s Goodmayes Hospital in July 2015.
Her parents sat through seven months of difficult and graphic evidence – and told Sky News the experience retraumatised them.
Image: Mother Jane Figueiredo
Jane Figueiredo said: “It’s very distressing, because you know that she’s been failed at every point all the way along, and you’re also reliving the suffering that she went through.
“It’s adding trauma on top of the wound that you’ve already got, the worst wound you can imagine, of losing your child.”
Image: Step-father Max Figueiredo
Alice’s stepfather Max said he remains “appalled” that she died in a place they thought would care for her.
“The fact we have these repeated deaths of very young people in secure mental health units shocks me to the core. How can society look at that event and portray it as something that happens as a matter of course?”
Ms Figueiredo said Alice had predicted her own death.
“She said to us – out of fear really: ‘The only way I’m going to leave this ward is in a body bag.’
Image: Alice had predicted her own death, her mother says
In a statement, the North East London NHS Foundation Trust said: “We are deeply sorry for Alice’s death, and we extend our heartfelt condolences to her family and loved ones.
“We have taken significant steps to continually improve the physical and social environment, deliberately designed to support recovery, safety, wellbeing, and assist our workforce in delivering compassionate care.”
For Alice’s family, the convictions have brought some justice, but they will never have complete closure.
“As a mum your bereavement doesn’t ever end, it changes over years as you go on, but it’s unending. The thought I won’t even hear her voice is unbearable and I still miss it. I still miss her voice,” Ms Figueiredo said.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.