After the debacle of Liz Truss’s September mini-budget, with all its mega ramifications, and an autumn statement eight weeks later that performed an about-turn so big that the country’s tax burden hit a 70-year-high, Wednesday’s budget will be all about stability and sticking to the plan.
“No big bangs in this budget,” is how one senior government insider put it to me last week. “It’s got to be a growth budget.
“We’re fighting to be competitive again with Labour. If we can get to next summer and the economy is ticking up, and we can narrow the gap to five to eight points behind in the polls, there’s a chance in an election campaign we can shift the dial.”
What the chancellor and prime minister want to project this week is the sense that they are getting the economy back on track, and working towards Rishi Sunak’s pledges to halve inflation, get debt down and get the UK economy growing again.
Do that, argue his allies, and the tax cuts will come – just in time for a general election.
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But there is pressure, and lots of it, from voters and from the Tory backbenchers to do more on tax cuts and cost-of-living now, not tomorrow.
And that pressure is all the more palpable after the chancellor received a £30bn windfall in the public finances last month, after it emerged that in the year to January, the public sector had borrowed less than forecast in November by the UK’s official fiscal watchdog.
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Floating voters we spoke to in a focus group in one Tory shire seat last week told us that struggling with the cost-of-living and a buckling NHS were top of their concerns, and they expressed scepticism that the government was up to the job.
One voter in the Wycombe constituency in Buckinghamshire described the government as “stale”, with another telling us: “The current crisis emphasises that our government is fairly broken.”
On the cost-of-living, our group of floating voters spoke of their anxiety around energy bills, food prices and childcare.
Charlotte, a working mum, told us she had to change her working hours because she couldn’t afford childcare costs.
“I can’t afford to work full time anymore,” she told us. “It’s not feasible for our family, so I’ve had to rope my mum in to do childcare.
“I wouldn’t say we’re a low earning family. That’s just the way it is now.”
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Voters talk about their priorities with our political editor Beth Rigby.
Food bills were also a concern, with voters saying they’d switched to cheaper supermarkets and cut back in the face of galloping food price inflation.
Ashley, who in the past has voted Conservative but is now undecided, told us he’d switched his weekly shop from Tesco and M&S to Aldi, while energy bills were a problem all round.
“I’ve voted Conservative a long time,” the father-of-two told us. “And then I got a bit tired of, you know, Boris and the promises.
“We need to have some results and I want to see some improvement, not the deflection bit around immigration, [but] some real positive on the cost of living. For me, that’s the most key…it’s what’s important to people.”
Short and long term plans
The Treasury is alive to the pressure, with insiders telling me there will be two parts to Mr Hunt’s budget on Wednesday: a short-term support plan to provide immediate relief on the cost-of-living crisis and then the long-term plan for growth.
On the first part of that, the government is expected to extend the £2,500 energy price guarantee for another three months from April (where there had been a planned rise to £3,000) to give people support on their bills.
The chancellor is also under pressure to again freeze fuel taxes in this budget, at a cost of £6bn.
When it comes to childcare, the chancellor is expected to change rules so that parents on Universal Credit are given more money for childcare and given the funding upfront.
The Treasury is also believed to be planning a cash injection of hundreds of millions into increasing the availability of the 30 hours of free childcare to three to four-year-olds.
Mr Hunt also plans to loosen staff-to-child ratios for two-year-olds, which could make the cost of childcare a little cheaper.
But anything really big bang on childcare, such as extending 30 hours of free childcare to one-and two-year-olds, is unlikely – that policy would cost around £6bn.
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1:54
These are some predictions for the budget.
And when it comes to the most obvious way of helping people manage their bills – wage packets – the government is standing firm, with Treasury insiders insisting there will be no above inflation pay sector awards.
Neither is the chancellor expected to offer voters any cuts to personal taxes.
“We haven’t got £30bn to cut taxes,” is how one government insider put it to me, in a nod to the boost from revised public finances.
“What we’ve got to do is get people back into work, be that through better childcare support or incentives to get those in their 50s back into work.
“That is where we have to focus policy, and that could amount to say £5bn and that comes out of the [£30bn] headroom.”
Because beyond the short-term support measures, the focus for this budget will be on trying to get the economy moving and getting people back to work post-pandemic, with a package of measures to try to shift parents, the sick, disabled and older workers back into jobs.
To that end, the chancellor is expected to raise the lifetime allowance for pension savings from £1m to an expected £1.8m – a record level – in order to try to incentivise doctors and other professionals out of retirement and back into work.
He could also lift the annual tax-free allowance for pensions from £40,000 to £60,000.
It’s a package that could cost £2bn a year and would be much welcomed by higher earners, but also opens the chancellor up to criticism that he is giving a tax break to the rich while offering nothing to basic rate taxpayers.
And when it comes to the other group of voters the chancellor and PM need to placate, his backbenchers, there is disquiet over the high level of tax burden, with many Tory MPs keen for tax cuts.
One former cabinet minister told me last week that they wanted to see the £30bn windfall in the public finances used to reverse the planned increase in corporation tax from 19p to 25p in April.
It is a pretty popular refrain.
But Treasury insiders insist the tax hike will go ahead and instead the chancellor will offer business tax breaks to try to encourage growth.
When Mr Sunak was chancellor back in March 2021, he created the £25bn “super-deduction” tax allowance for capital investment – a two-year measure offering 130% tax relief on companies’ purchases of equipment – in order to try to boost investment and growth.
Mr Hunt is coming up with a new set of plans to try to support business and could give firms much more generous capital allowances to incentivise investment.
Watch too for policies and reforms targeting certain industries and sectors, from artificial intelligence to green energy and advanced manufacturing: all of it will be framed as the government’s long-term plan for growth.
Image: Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be hoping to reassure people they are making the right choices for the UK economy.
Wednesday will be, if you like, the third act of the prime minister’s performance over the past few weeks to try and win a jaded public back around by trying to convince them he will stick to his plan and deliver on promises.
On the international stage, he has rehabilitated the UK with allies after the bumpy years of Prime Minister Johnson and then Prime Minister Truss, symbolised most strongly in a deal with the EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland – where even his foes conceded Mr Sunak had got more than they expected.
At home, the PM has put forward his plan to “stop the boats” – a key priority of many of the voters he needs to keep onside or win back in 2024.
Whether the plan, surrounded in legal and practical controversies, will come off remains to be seen.
But Mr Sunak will at least be able, to quote one of his allies, “build a narrative” that blames the failure of the policy around France and the EU refusing to grant the UK a returns agreement and the international courts blocking his plans.
“At least he can then make the argument it wasn’t his fault,” they said.
Narrow path back
On Wednesday, the focus will be on the PM’s three economic targets – halving inflation, cutting debt and growing the economy – as the chancellor tries to lay down the best conditions he can for the Conservatives’ run into the general election in 2024.
Mr Sunak’s allies tell me they think there is a way back to victory for this government at the ballot box once again, but the “path is very narrow”.
A budget then building the foundations rather than lighting the fireworks, all of this the groundwork for the pre-election showstopper next year.
But with the cost-of-living squeeze so acute, the promise of jam tomorrow is unlikely to satisfy the public, particularly if those being given some of the spoils this time around look to be business and the wealthy.
Mr Hunt may be charged with steadying the ship, but he’ll have to be skilful on Wednesday not to lose more ground.
A “simple” tomb “in the ground” bearing only the inscription “Franciscus” is among the Pope’s wishes for his burial, according to a final testament released by the Vatican.
Below is the Pope’s final testament in full, signed 29 June 2022.
Image: The Vatican shared the Pope’s final testament with his burial wishes. Pic: The Vatican
“As I sense the approaching twilight of my earthly life, and with firm hope in eternal life, I wish to set out my final wishes solely regarding the place of my burial.
“Throughout my life, and during my ministry as a priest and bishop, I have always entrusted myself to the Mother of Our Lord, the Blessed Virgin Mary. For this reason, I ask that my mortal remains rest – awaiting the day of the Resurrection – in the Papal Basilica of Saint Mary Major.
“I wish my final earthly journey to end precisely in this ancient Marian sanctuary, where I would always stop to pray at the beginning and end of every Apostolic Journey, confidently entrusting my intentions to the Immaculate Mother, and giving thanks for her gentle and maternal care.
“I ask that my tomb be prepared in the burial niche in the side aisle between the Pauline Chapel (Chapel of the Salus Populi Romani) and the Sforza Chapel of the Basilica, as shown in the attached plan.
“The tomb should be in the ground; simple, without particular ornamentation, bearing only the inscription: Franciscus.
“The cost of preparing the burial will be covered by a sum provided by a benefactor, which I have arranged to be transferred to the Papal Basilica of Saint Mary Major.
“I have given the necessary instructions regarding this to Cardinal Rolandas Makrickas, Extraordinary Commissioner of the Liberian Basilica.
“May the Lord grant a fitting reward to all those who have loved me and who continue to pray for me.
“The suffering that has marked the final part of my life, I offer to the Lord, for peace in the world and for fraternity among peoples.”
His arrival as pontiff heralded a new kind of leadership for the Catholic Church.
Described by some as the people’s pope, Pope Francis showed a willingness to welcome those who’d felt shunned by the Catholic faith, but as a reformer at heart, he also faced huge criticism from conservatives within the church.
The clash between the traditional and the liberal remains the greatest challenge to the legacy he leaves.
He was a pope of firsts: the first Latin American pontiff, the first Jesuit pope, the first to choose the name Francis.
Selected in just over a day by the papal conclave in March 2013, for some, the archbishop from Argentina, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, was an unexpected choice.
Image: Jorge Mario Bergoglio as a boy. Undated pic: Rex/Argenpress/Shutterstock
Image: The then Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio on the subway in Buenos Aires in 2008. Pic: AP
The cardinals who chose him said he accepted the post with his trademark good humour.
“When the secretary of state toasted to him, he toasted back to us and said ‘I hope God forgives you’,” Cardinal Timothy M Dolan recalled at the time.
That sense of humour and his humility were characteristics which set him apart. He chose not to wear the more ostentatious papal clothing and turned down the traditional Vatican apartments for a more modest residence.
“Francis was not shy at all. He would always say funny things – crack a joke. He would also risk saying things that people in the first moment would be feeling as an insult, but then, when they looked at his cheeky face, they would also laugh,” rememberedProfessor Felix Koerner SJ, a theologian at Humboldt University in Berlin.
Born and raised in Buenos Aires, the son of Italian immigrants, after school he studied to become a scientist before being drawn to religion.
Spiritual leader to 1.4 billion Catholics, he was a symbolic figurehead on the world stage, meeting monarchs, presidents and prime ministers as he travelled the globe addressing huge crowds everywhere he went.
But while at ease in the presence of the rich and powerful, Pope Francis was never more comfortable than in the company of the poor.
His papal name was selected in honour of St Francis of Assisi for this very reason.
Image: The then priest in 1973. Pic: Rex/Argenpress/Shutterstock
Image: Argentina’s then Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio gives a mass outside San Cayetano church in Buenos Aires in 2009. Pic: AP
“Cardinal Bergoglio had a special place in his heart and his ministry for the poor, for the disenfranchised, for those living on the fringes and facing injustice,” Vatican deputy spokesman Thomas Rosica explained.
Throughout his papacy, he was an outspoken champion of the deprived and a defender of those fleeing war and hunger.
Addressing the US Congress in 2015 he said: “Do unto others as you would have others do unto you, this rule points us in a clear direction; let us treat others with the same passion and compassion with which we want to be treated. Let us seek for others the same possibilities which we seek for ourselves.”
Image: Pope Francis kisses a baby as he arrives for a weekly general audience at the Vatican in October 2019. Pic: Reuters
On his numerous foreign trips, he sought out those in need, not afraid to visit struggling or violent areas.
In 2016, he washed the feet of refugees from various religious backgrounds at a migrant centre in a “gesture of humility and service”.
From climate change to the balance of wealth in the world, Pope Francis was not afraid to make his views known.
In 2015, he wrote Laudato Si (Praised Be), a major document on the need to protect the environment, calling the climate crisis a moral issue.
Addressing a congregation in 2023, he said: “We must side with the victims of environmental and climate injustice, working to put an end to the senseless war against our common home.”
Image: Pope Francis addressed a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington in 2015, the first pontiff to do so. Pic: AP
Image: President Obama and Pope Francis. Pic: AP
Image: Pope Francis with Donald Trump at the Vatican in May 2017. Pic: Reuters
He was widely praised for his commitment to interfaith dialogue and was instrumental in an agreement between the Catholic Church and Islamic faiths.
In February 2019, Pope Francis and Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, signed the Document On Human Fraternity For World Peace And Living Together.
He was also the first ever pope to travel to Iraq in 2021, an attempt to build bridges between different communities.
But it was his acceptance of the LGBTQ community that was unprecedented.
It began with an unexpected remark to reporters on a flight back from Brazil about gay clergy.
He said: “If a person is gay and seeks God and has good will, who am I to judge them?”
He later declared homosexuality was not a crime, part of his mission to make the Catholic Church more welcoming.
Image: Francis with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in October 2024. Pic: Vatican via Reuters
Image: Pope Francis with the King (then Prince Charles) in 2019. Pic: Vatican via Reuters
“He was great in building relations and in risking being provocative to people. So he will remain in our memories a pope challenging people to live like Christ in simplicity,” said Professor Koerner.
However, events in later years left some feeling betrayed, for example, a landmark declaration allowing clerical blessings for same-sex couples was diluted.
In April 2024, he appeared to reiterate the Vatican‘s staunch opposition to gender reassignment, surrogacy, abortion and euthanasia, by signing the text “Dignitas Infinita” (Infinite Dignity).
In the same year, his own liberal credentials were questioned after reports he used a homophobic slur behind closed doors.
But despite that, others continued to insist he was still going too far with his progressive social views, and steering the Catholic Church away from more traditional values.
For the first time in six centuries, Francis had taken over from a living pope when Pope Benedict XVI stepped down due to his health in 2013.
Image: Pope Francis with Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI
Image: Pope Francis presiding over the funeral of his predecessor
His new tone compared to his predecessor, and efforts to reform, would set him on a collision course with his critics for going too far on both finances and policy.
Some would argue the opposition severely hampered his ability to go further with reforms around the involvement of women and the gay community.
Ruth Gledhill, assistant editor of The Tablet, said Pope Francis “did go to war with the conservative traditionalist side of the church. And it could be argued that it wasn’t entirely an effective battle or entirely a wise battle in some respects.
“I think what people will have to accept is even now in today’s world where everything happens so quickly, in the Catholic Church still, nothing happens fast.”
Claims of abuse within the church both in the past and present were a constant shadow for Pope Francis.
In 2018, he travelled to Irelandand apologised for the “crimes” committed by the church.
Image: Pope Francis visiting Phoenix Park in Dublin in 2018. Pic: AP
The victims included the tens of thousands of Irish children sexually and physically abused at Catholic churches, schools and workhouses, and the women who were forced to live and work in laundries and give up their children if they got pregnant out of wedlock.
“We ask forgiveness for those members of the hierarchy who didn’t take responsibility for this painful situation, and who kept silence,” Francis said to a crowd of 300,000 in Dublin.
“May the Lord keep this state of shame and compunction and give us strength so this never happens again, and that there is justice.”
In 2019, he issued a landmark decree making it obligatory for all priests and members of religious orders to report any suspicions of abuse, and holding bishops directly accountable for any attacks they commit or cover-up.
Image: Pope Francis met Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip in 2014. Pic: AP
In 2023, he extended the sex abuse rules to include lay leaders.
But some still feel not enough was done to root out the problem and hold to account known abusers.
Luke Coppen, senior correspondent at the Catholic website The Pillar, said: “Opinions differ about how successful he was or how much attention he paid to it. He certainly took several steps to combat that evil on a global scale. But critics again said that he didn’t do enough.”
Occasionally, during his time as pontiff, his temper frayed when he was in pain from illness or overwhelmed by an overexcited crowd.
In 2016, he scolded a person who pulled him down in Mexico, and in 2020 slapped the hand of a woman who refused to let go of his arm.
For many this only made him more human.
Image: On 21 February 2001, Archbishop Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elevated to cardinal by Pope John Paul II with the title of cardinal priest of San Roberto Bellarmino
At the time of his election, he also faced questions over whether he stayed silent about human rights abuses carried out by Argentina’s dictatorship while he lived there.
Critics alleged he failed to protect priests who challenged the junta earlier in his career, during the ‘dirty war’ between 1976 and 1983, and that he has said too little about the complicity of the church during military rule.
The Vatican strongly denied the accusations.
In his final years, increasing health issues meant more frequent hospital stays and more events cancelled, but even when sick, Francis continued to put others before himself to show the church was more open than before.
For example, while receiving treatment in hospital in 2023 he took time to visit ill children, baptise a baby and comfort mourning parents.
In 2024, he also invited 200 comedians to an audience at the Vatican and a year later appointed the first woman, Sister Simona Brambilla, to head up a major Vatican office.
In 2025, Pope Francis underwent a prolonged stay in hospital after being admitted on 14 February for respiratory issues that developed into double pneumonia.
He spent 38 days there – the longest hospitalisation of his 12-year papacy.
But he emerged on Easter Sunday, his last public appearance a day before his death, to bless thousands in St Peter’s Square after meeting with US vice president JD Vance.
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Pope blesses Easter crowds day before his death
Announcing his death on Easter Monday, Cardinal Farrell of the Vatican said: “Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis.
“At 7.35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His Church.
“He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with fidelity, courage and universal love, especially in favor of the poorest and most marginalised.
“With immense gratitude for his example as a true disciple of the Lord Jesus, we commend the soul of Pope Francis to the infinite merciful love of the One and Triune God.”
Bells tolled in church towers across Rome after the announcement of his passing.
As Catholics now mourn his passing, it is his humanity that Pope Francis will be remembered for; a pope of the people, never happier than when he was among them.
The news was announced by Cardinal Kevin Farrell in a statement released by the Vatican. He said: “Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis.
“At 7.35am this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His Church.
“He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with fidelity, courage and universal love, especially in favour of the poorest and most marginalised.
“With immense gratitude for his example as a true disciple of the Lord Jesus, we commend the soul of Pope Francis to the infinite merciful love of the One and Triune God.”
The process for choosing a new pope – conclave – generally takes place between 15 and 20 days after the death of a pontiff.
Image: Pope Francis in St Peter’s Square on Easter Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Recent hospital visits
In recent years, his papacy had been marked by several hospital visits and concerns about his health.
On 22 February, it said the Pope was in a critical condition after a “prolonged respiratory crisis” that required a high flow of oxygen, and the next day the Vatican said Francis was showing an “initial, mild” kidney failure.
In the following days, thousands of faithful gathered in St Peter’s Square to pray for his recovery, as others went to the Rome hospital where he was staying to leave flowers and cards.
He remained in hospital for the rest of the month, with doctors saying that his condition remained “complex”.
On 6 March, his voice was heard for the first time since being admitted to hospital in an audio message, in which he thanked well-wishers, before adding: “I am with you from here.”
His 38-day hospital stay ended on 23 March when he made his first public appearance in five weeks on a balcony at Gemelli where he smiled and gave a thumbs up to the crowds gathered outside.
He returned to the Vatican, making a surprise stop at his favourite basilica on the way home, before beginning two months of prescribed rest and recovery.
Doctors said Francis would have access to supplemental oxygen and 24-hour medical care as needed – adding that while the pneumonia infection had been successfully treated, the pontiff would continue to take oral medication for quite some time to treat the fungal infection in his lungs and continue his respiratory and physical physiotherapy.
Image: Thousands gathered in St Peter’s Square for a series of evening prayers. Pic: AP
‘People’s Pope’
Born in 1936, Francis was the first pope from South America. His papacy was marked by his championing of those escaping war and hunger, as well as those in poverty, earning him the moniker the “People’s Pope”.
In 2016, he washed the feet of refugees from different religions at an asylum centre outside Rome in a “gesture of humility and service”.
He also made his views known on a wide range of issues, from climate change to wealth inequality and the role of women in the Catholic Church.
His acceptance of the LGBTQ community was unprecedented – beginning with an unexpected remark to reporters on a flight back from Brazil about gay clergy.
He said: “If a person is gay and seeks God and has good will, who am I to judge them?”
However, in April 2024 he appeared to reiterate the Vatican‘s staunch opposition to gender reassignment, surrogacy, abortion and euthanasia, by signing the text “Dignitas Infinita” (Infinite Dignity).
In the same year, his own liberal credentials were questioned after reports he used a homophobic slur behind closed doors.
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The Pope greeted crowds at Easter Sunday service a day before he died
Pope’s health in recent years
As a young man in his native Argentina, Francis had part of one lung removed.
In the last few years of his life, Francis needed a wheelchair or a cane to get around and limited his public speaking while struggling with bronchitis and flu.
In June 2023 he was admitted to hospital for an operation on his intestine. At the time, the Vatican said he had been suffering “recurrent, painful and worsening” symptoms caused by an abdominal hernia.
His recent health issues meant he was forced to miss significant events in the Roman Catholic calendar, including the traditional Good Friday procession at Rome’s Colosseum last year.