How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all – and why we’re in for a bumpy few months

Published

2 years ago

March 14, 2023

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Tempting as it is to believe that the chaos with Silicon Valley Bank and its British arm are of interest only to members of the tech community and financial nerds, it has already had a very real bearing on all our lives.

For evidence, look no further than the money markets, where investors bet on the future path of interest rates.

Up until last Friday, they were expecting UK interest rates to peak at around 4.75% – possibly even a little bit higher.

But the shock of the bank collapse caused a sudden reappraisal. By Monday evening, they were pricing in a peak of only 4.25% – a very big fall by the scheme of these things. It was a similar story in the US, where the expected peak for rates dropped by around half a percentage point.

Why are these two stories – interest rates and an obscure bank collapse – colliding?

In large part it’s because they were always intertwined – not that anyone paid much attention before last week.

Part of the reason Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) suffered its demise was because over the past 18 months rising interest rates had caused a sharp fall in the value of bonds held by the bank.

It was, in large part, those losses and the impact on SVB’s balance sheet that prompted depositors to run from the bank late last week (which in turn triggered the UK branch’s collapse).

In other words, one of the consequences of SVB’s implosion is that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England might become a little more wary of raising interest rates in future.

Everyone knew there were unexploded bombs in the financial system which would begin to explode when money got more expensive; the fear now is that there may be more explosions to come.

This isn’t the only explanation for why rate expectations have come down. There’s also the fact that the chaos at SVB, Signature bank (which also failed) and across much of the US banking system might dampen economic growth or even precipitate a recession.

And, for the most part, central banks tend to cut rates rather than raise them in the face of a recession. And we were already getting close to the potential peak in borrowing costs.

Even so, this interplay between an extremely nervous financial system and interest rates is a big part of the story.

Which brings us to some of the consequences.

‘Things could get pretty gritty’

Let’s assume the Fed and the Bank of England are indeed going to allow interest rates to peak at a lower rate than previously expected.

Does that mean that we have to expect higher inflation in future? What if inflation turns out to be considerably more sticky than most central banks expect (they mostly think it’ll come down pretty quickly)?

The short answer is that things could get pretty gritty: the Bank of England is duty bound to try to keep inflation low and to try to keep the financial system stable, but among the many things illustrated by the SVB episode is that those two objectives can sometimes clash with each other.

In this case, higher interest rates (to fight inflation) contributed to financial instability. Yes, there was lots else going on besides – there’s a strong case to say the Fed wasn’t doing enough to monitor the risk posed by unusual banks like SVB – but the rising cost of money is a big part of the story.

There’s good news and bad news

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time.

And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there’s good and bad news.

The good is that the headline consumer price index in both the UK and US seems to have been faring more or less as the central banks expected – gradually coming down. Earlier today, the US CPI came in at an annual rate of 6% – bang in line with expectations.

The bad news is that when you look beneath the surface, there are some hints that inflation could prove more stubborn than expected.

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In particular, core inflation – the behaviour of prices once you strip out volatile items like energy and food – is still building, especially when you ignore housing costs. That suggests there’s still upwards pressure on prices.

And sure enough, immediately after the release of those numbers, interest rate expectations rose a little, both in the UK and US.

Now, UK rates are expected to peak not at 4.25% but 4.4% (which in practical terms means a fair few people – though not everyone – expect 4.5% rates).

In short, we’re in for a bumpy few months.

Business

Plenty of concern about UK gilt yields and economic health but this isn’t a Liz Truss moment

Published

14 hours ago

January 8, 2025

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Plenty of concern about UK gilt yields and economic health but this isn't a Liz Truss moment

How worried should Rachel Reeves be about the fact that the interest rates on government bonds have leapt to the highest level in more than a quarter of a century?

More to the point, how worried should the rest of us be about it?

After all, the interest rate on 30-year government bonds (gilts, as they are known) hit 5.37% today—the highest level since 1998. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year government bond is also up to the highest level since 2008.

Higher government borrowing rates mean, rather obviously, that the cost of all that investment Keir Starmer has promised in the coming years will go up. And since these rates reflect longer-term expectations for borrowing costs, in practice it means everything else in this economy will gradually get more expensive.

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There are short-term and long-term consequences to all of this. In the short run, it means it will be harder for Ms Reeves to meet those fiscal rules she set herself. Back at the budget, she left herself a (in fiscal terms) paper-thin margin of £9.9bn not to overshoot on borrowing vs her new rules.

According to Capital Economics, based on recent market moves, that margin might now have been eroded down to around £1bn.

And, given that’s before the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has even decided on changes to its forecasts, it’s now touch and go as to whether Ms Reeves will meet her fiscal rules. As my colleague Sam Coates reported this week, the upshot is the Treasury is poised to pare back its spending plans in the coming years – a depressing prospect given the chancellor only just set them. But that won’t be clear until the OBR’s updated forecasts are published in March.

However, fiscal rules and political embarrassments are one thing – the bigger picture is another. And that bigger picture is that the UK is being charged higher interest rates by international investors to compensate them for their concerns about our economic future – about rising debt levels, about the threat of higher inflation and about fears of sub-par growth in the years to come.

How does this compare to the Liz Truss mini-budget?

But perhaps the biggest question of all is whether, what with long-term bond yields higher now (over 5.2%) than the highs they hit in October 2022, after the infamous mini-budget (4.8%), does that mean the economy is in even more of a crisis than it was under Liz Truss?

The short answer is no. This is nothing like the post mini-budget aftermath. Investors are concerned about UK debt levels – yes. They are repricing our debt accordingly. There was even a moment for a few days after the budget last autumn when the yields on UK bonds were behaving in an erratic, worrying way, rising more than most of our counterparts.

But – and this is the critical bit – we saw nothing like the levels of panic and concern in markets that we saw after the mini-budget. But don’t just take it from me. Consider two data-based metrics that are pretty useful in this case.

The first is to consider the fact that back in October 2022 it wasn’t just that the interest rates on government bonds were rising. It was that the pound was plummeting at the same time. That’s a toxic cocktail – a signal that investors are simply pulling their money out of the country. This time around, the pound is pretty steady, and is far stronger than it was in late 2022, when it hit the lowest level (against a basket of currencies) in modern history.

Is this just a UK problem?

The second test is to ask a question: is the UK an outlier? Are investors looking at this country and treating it differently to other countries?

And here, the answer is again somewhat reassuring for Ms Reeves. While it’s certainly true that UK government bond yields are up sharply in recent weeks, precisely the same thing is true of US government bond yields. Even German yields are up in recent weeks – albeit not as high as the US or UK.

In other words, the movements in bond yields don’t appear to be UK-specific. They’re part of a bigger movement across assets worldwide as investors face up to the new future – with governments (including the UK and the US under Donald Trump) willing to borrow more and spend more in the future. As I say, that’s somewhat reassuring for Ms Reeves, but I’m not sure it’s entirely reassuring for the rest of us.

One way of looking at this is by measuring how much the UK’s bond yields deviated from those American and German cousin rates in recent months. And while there was a point, a few days after Ms Reeves’ Halloween budget, when UK bond yields were more of an outlier than they historically have been after fiscal events, in the following weeks the UK stopped being much of an outlier. Yes, it was being charged more by investors, but then given the budget involved large spending and borrowing increases, that’s hardly surprising.

Now compare that with what happened after the mini-budget, when the UK’s bond yields deviated from their counterparts in the US and Germany more than after any other fiscal event in modern history – a terrifying rise which only ended after Kwasi Kwarteng stood down. Only when Ms Truss resigned were they back in what you might consider “normal” territory.

Now, it’s hard to compare different historical moments. The mini-budget was happening at a tense moment in financial markets, with the Bank of England poised to reverse its quantitative easing. Not all of the roller coaster can be attributed to Ms Truss. Even so, comparing that period to today is night and day.

Investors are not exactly delighted with the UK’s economic prospects right now. They’re letting this be known via financial markets. But they’re certainly not horrified in the way they were after the mini-budget of 2022.

Business

Power grid operator scrambles to avert blackout risk

Published

20 hours ago

January 8, 2025

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Power grid operator scrambles to avert blackout risk

The UK’s power grid operator has issued a call for electricity providers to bolster output this evening to avert the risk of blackouts.

The National Energy System Operator (NESO) issued an alert “to encourage market actions to increase system margins”.

It was the first such precautionary measure of the winter to date and issued at a time when much of the UK is shivering under sub-zero temperatures.

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The NESO is worried about a lack of spare capacity in the grid from 4pm until 7pm due to “system constraints”.

The body, which is in public control having been part of National Grid until last autumn, said in an update that it was seeking 1,200 megawatts (MW) of power as part of the so-called system margin notice.

Such notices are a call for a greater safety cushion between power demand and available supply.

The NESO was at pains to point out that it does not signal that blackouts are imminent or that there is not enough generation to meet current demand.

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There is strain on the system due to a lack of wind and bitterly cold temperatures, which stoke stronger demand for electricity and gas.

Lows of minus 16C, the coldest of the winter so far, are forecast for parts of the UK on Thursday.

A yellow warning for snow and ice has been issued for northern Scotland and Northern Ireland from noon on Wednesday until midnight on Thursday.

Sub-zero temperatures are expected across the country for the foreseeable future.

It is the first winter the UK has seen in living memory without coal power forming part of the domestic electricity generation mix.

The number of such power stations held in reserve was gradually drawn down under efforts to reduce the country’s carbon footprint.

Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station shut down in September.

The UK has reciprocal arrangements with neighbouring countries to draw power via so-called interconnectors if and when required to help keep the lights on.

National Grid data showed that more than 50% of the UK’s power was being generated through natural gas.

Renewables accounted for just 16% while France and Norway were helping provide 10% of output, with nuclear and Biomass accounting for the bulk of the balance.

Business

Piers Morgan to leave Rupert Murdoch’s News UK in deal over YouTube venture

Published

23 hours ago

January 8, 2025

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Piers Morgan to leave Rupert Murdoch's News UK in deal over YouTube venture

Piers Morgan, the broadcaster and journalist, is leaving Rupert Murdoch’s British empire to focus on expanding his Uncensored YouTube channel in the US and other international markets, underlining prominent media figures’ accelerating shift away from traditional outlets.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Mr Morgan and News UK – publisher of The Sun and The Times and owner of Times radio – have agreed a deal that will see him taking ownership of the Uncensored media brand and its existing 3.6 million-strong YouTube subscriber base through his production company, Wake Up Productions.

He is understood to have struck a four-year revenue-sharing deal with News UK that will see the Murdoch-owned company receiving a slice of the advertising revenue generated by Piers Morgan Uncensored until 2029.

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Mr Morgan returned to News UK in January 2022 with a three-year deal that included writing regular columns for The Sun and New York Post, as well as presenting shows on the company’s now-folded television channel, Talk TV.

People close to the situation said a book deal with the Murdoch-owned publisher Harper Collins would still go ahead, with Mr Morgan expected to complete that project later this year.

He will also continue to write occasionally for News Corporation’s newspapers, according to one insider.

Mr Morgan’s future had been the subject of growing speculation following the expiry of his three-year contract with News UK at the end of 2024.

As part of his new arrangements, Mr Morgan has also signed a deal with Red Seat Ventures, a US-based agency which partners with prominent media figures and influencers to help them exploit commercial opportunities through sponsorship and other revenue streams.

Among those Red Seat has worked with are Megyn Kelly, the American commentator, and Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News presenter.

Mr Morgan is also understood to have received expressions of interest in other commercial and broadcasting deals from American media groups, having been one of few Brits to present his own TV chatshow on a mainstream US network.

Fond of the phrase “One day you’re the cock of the walk, the next you’re the feather duster,” during various phases of his career, his latest deal reflects the shifting dynamics in media consumption.

Responding to an enquiry from Sky News on Wednesday morning, Mr Morgan said in a statement: “I have had a great time working back at News and am delighted that we will continue to be partners.

“Owning the brand allows my team and I the freedom to focus exclusively on building Uncensored into a standalone business, editorially and commercially, and in time, widening it from just me and my content.

“It’s clear from the recent US election that YouTube is an increasingly powerful and influential media platform, and Uncensored is one of the fastest-growing shows on it in the world.

“I’m very excited about the potential for Uncensored.”

Mr Morgan declined to comment on any other aspect of his new arrangement with News UK or his expansion plans ahead of an official announcement, which is understood to be scheduled for later on Wednesday.

His decision to strike out on his own – albeit with a continued relationship with News UK – is said to reflect his belief that broadcast audiences will increasingly shift away from mainstream channels to platforms such as YouTube.

“He thinks YouTube will be a dominant broadcasting platform in terms of audience share within a couple of years,” said one.

It was unclear what the precise revenue split would be between Wake Up Productions and News UK during their four-year partnership.

He is expected to focus his efforts to expand Uncensored on US audiences initially, with a wider international plan to follow that.

On Tuesday, Mr Morgan posted on X that he believed an interview with Elon Musk, the Tesla founder who has sparked a firestorm in British politics in recent weeks, was “getting closer”.

Among the other interviewees on his YouTube show have been Donald Trump during his first presidency, the Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensky and Cristiano Ronaldo, the footballer.