After the debacle of Liz Truss’s September mini-budget, with all its mega ramifications, and an autumn statement eight weeks later that performed an about-turn so big that the country’s tax burden hit a 70-year-high, Wednesday’s budget will be all about stability and sticking to the plan.
“No big bangs in this budget,” is how one senior government insider put it to me last week. “It’s got to be a growth budget.
“We’re fighting to be competitive again with Labour. If we can get to next summer and the economy is ticking up, and we can narrow the gap to five to eight points behind in the polls, there’s a chance in an election campaign we can shift the dial.”
What the chancellor and prime minister want to project this week is the sense that they are getting the economy back on track, and working towards Rishi Sunak’s pledges to halve inflation, get debt down and get the UK economy growing again.
Do that, argue his allies, and the tax cuts will come – just in time for a general election.
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But there is pressure, and lots of it, from voters and from the Tory backbenchers to do more on tax cuts and cost-of-living now, not tomorrow.
And that pressure is all the more palpable after the chancellor received a £30bn windfall in the public finances last month, after it emerged that in the year to January, the public sector had borrowed less than forecast in November by the UK’s official fiscal watchdog.
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Floating voters we spoke to in a focus group in one Tory shire seat last week told us that struggling with the cost-of-living and a buckling NHS were top of their concerns, and they expressed scepticism that the government was up to the job.
One voter in the Wycombe constituency in Buckinghamshire described the government as “stale”, with another telling us: “The current crisis emphasises that our government is fairly broken.”
On the cost-of-living, our group of floating voters spoke of their anxiety around energy bills, food prices and childcare.
Charlotte, a working mum, told us she had to change her working hours because she couldn’t afford childcare costs.
“I can’t afford to work full time anymore,” she told us. “It’s not feasible for our family, so I’ve had to rope my mum in to do childcare.
“I wouldn’t say we’re a low earning family. That’s just the way it is now.”
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2:54
Voters talk about their priorities with our political editor Beth Rigby.
Food bills were also a concern, with voters saying they’d switched to cheaper supermarkets and cut back in the face of galloping food price inflation.
Ashley, who in the past has voted Conservative but is now undecided, told us he’d switched his weekly shop from Tesco and M&S to Aldi, while energy bills were a problem all round.
“I’ve voted Conservative a long time,” the father-of-two told us. “And then I got a bit tired of, you know, Boris and the promises.
“We need to have some results and I want to see some improvement, not the deflection bit around immigration, [but] some real positive on the cost of living. For me, that’s the most key…it’s what’s important to people.”
Short and long term plans
The Treasury is alive to the pressure, with insiders telling me there will be two parts to Mr Hunt’s budget on Wednesday: a short-term support plan to provide immediate relief on the cost-of-living crisis and then the long-term plan for growth.
On the first part of that, the government is expected to extend the £2,500 energy price guarantee for another three months from April (where there had been a planned rise to £3,000) to give people support on their bills.
The chancellor is also under pressure to again freeze fuel taxes in this budget, at a cost of £6bn.
When it comes to childcare, a key battleground in the next election, the chancellor is expected to change the rules so that parents on Universal Credit are given more childcare and given the funding upfront.
The Treasury is also believed to be planning a hundreds of millions cash injection into expanding access to 30 hours of free access to the over threes.
The chancellor also plans to loosen staff to child ratios for two-year-olds, which could make the cost of childcare a little cheaper.
He is also planning to extend the provision of up to 30 hours a week to one and two-year-olds which could form a central plank in his pitch of helping with the cost of living and getting parents into work.
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1:54
These are some predictions for the budget.
And when it comes to the most obvious way of helping people manage their bills – wage packets – the government is standing firm, with Treasury insiders insisting there will be no above inflation pay sector awards.
Neither is the chancellor expected to offer voters any cuts to personal taxes.
“We haven’t got £30bn to cut taxes,” is how one government insider put it to me, in a nod to the boost from revised public finances.
“What we’ve got to do is get people back into work, be that through better childcare support or incentives to get those in their 50s back into work.
“That is where we have to focus policy, and that could amount to say £5bn and that comes out of the [£30bn] headroom.”
Because beyond the short-term support measures, the focus for this budget will be on trying to get the economy moving and getting people back to work post-pandemic, with a package of measures to try to shift parents, the sick, disabled and older workers back into jobs.
To that end, the chancellor is expected to raise the lifetime allowance for pension savings from £1m to an expected £1.8m – a record level – in order to try to incentivise doctors and other professionals out of retirement and back into work.
He could also lift the annual tax-free allowance for pensions from £40,000 to £60,000.
It’s a package that could cost £2bn a year and would be much welcomed by higher earners, but also opens the chancellor up to criticism that he is giving a tax break to the rich while offering nothing to basic rate taxpayers.
And when it comes to the other group of voters the chancellor and PM need to placate, his backbenchers, there is disquiet over the high level of tax burden, with many Tory MPs keen for tax cuts.
One former cabinet minister told me last week that they wanted to see the £30bn windfall in the public finances used to reverse the planned increase in corporation tax from 19p to 25p in April.
It is a pretty popular refrain.
But Treasury insiders insist the tax hike will go ahead and instead the chancellor will offer business tax breaks to try to encourage growth.
When Mr Sunak was chancellor back in March 2021, he created the £25bn “super-deduction” tax allowance for capital investment – a two-year measure offering 130% tax relief on companies’ purchases of equipment – in order to try to boost investment and growth.
Mr Hunt is coming up with a new set of plans to try to support business and could give firms much more generous capital allowances to incentivise investment.
Watch too for policies and reforms targeting certain industries and sectors, from artificial intelligence to green energy and advanced manufacturing: all of it will be framed as the government’s long-term plan for growth.
Wednesday will be, if you like, the third act of the prime minister’s performance over the past few weeks to try and win a jaded public back around by trying to convince them he will stick to his plan and deliver on promises.
On the international stage, he has rehabilitated the UK with allies after the bumpy years of Prime Minister Johnson and then Prime Minister Truss, symbolised most strongly in a deal with the EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland – where even his foes conceded Mr Sunak had got more than they expected.
At home, the PM has put forward his plan to “stop the boats” – a key priority of many of the voters he needs to keep onside or win back in 2024.
Whether the plan, surrounded in legal and practical controversies, will come off remains to be seen.
But Mr Sunak will at least be able, to quote one of his allies, “build a narrative” that blames the failure of the policy around France and the EU refusing to grant the UK a returns agreement and the international courts blocking his plans.
“At least he can then make the argument it wasn’t his fault,” they said.
Narrow path back
On Wednesday, the focus will be on the PM’s three economic targets – halving inflation, cutting debt and growing the economy – as the chancellor tries to lay down the best conditions he can for the Conservatives’ run into the general election in 2024.
Mr Sunak’s allies tell me they think there is a way back to victory for this government at the ballot box once again, but the “path is very narrow”.
A budget then building the foundations rather than lighting the fireworks, all of this the groundwork for the pre-election showstopper next year.
But with the cost-of-living squeeze so acute, the promise of jam tomorrow is unlikely to satisfy the public, particularly if those being given some of the spoils this time around look to be business and the wealthy.
Mr Hunt may be charged with steadying the ship, but he’ll have to be skilful on Wednesday not to lose more ground.
Four teenagers and a 45-year-old man have been found guilty of murdering two boys, aged 15 and 16, who were attacked with machetes in a case of mistaken identity.
The convictions follow a five-week trial at Bristol Crown Court.
The jury heard how Max Dixon and Mason Rist were killed in a case of mistaken identity on 27 January, after being wrongly identified as being responsible for a house attack in the Hartcliffe area of the city earlier that evening.
Antony Snook, 45, Riley Tolliver, 18, and three boys aged 15, 16 and 17 were all on trial each charged with two counts of murder.
As the jury foreman returned the guilty verdicts, none of the defendants showed any reaction from the dock, as they sat impassively and stared straight ahead.
The fatal stabbings in Knowle West lasted just 33 seconds – with both boys suffering what the court heard were “unsurvivable” injuries and “instant severe blood loss”.
Both died in hospital in the early hours of 28 January.
Detective Superintendent Gary Haskins, the case’s senior investigating officer from Avon and Somerset Police, told Sky News that Max and Mason had nothing to do with the house attack.
“Those boys were not known to their attackers, they were best friends, two beautiful children just going about their lives and attacked for no reason whatsoever,” he said.
Much of the prosecution’s case was based on CCTV and doorbell videos, including a camera on Mason’s own house which captured footage of the knife attack against him.
The pair were seen leaving Mason’s home at around 11.15pm and were going for a pizza.
Prosecutor Ray Tully KC told the jury that the boys were set upon by the group who had been travelling in Snook’s Audi Q2.
He said the group were “out for revenge”, “acting as a pack” to hunt down those responsible and “tooled up” with fearsome weapons.
After the attackers fled, Max and Mason were left bleeding in the street.
The investigation involved more than 230 police officers and staff – with thousands of pieces of evidence analysed.
Hundreds mourned victims at school
The teenage victims were in year 11 together at the Oasis Academy John Williams secondary school and were preparing to sit their GCSEs this summer.
The school’s headteacher Victoria Boomer-Clark told Sky News that everyone rallied to support fellow pupils and staff.
She said: “After the boys were tragically murdered, for us first and foremost we were thinking about the families and how they were coping with the absolute tragedy and shock of that.
“I can remember trying to prepare for that Monday morning and my memories now are how exceptionally strong our young people are and how we have a real sense of community.
“Unbeknownst to us the young people had arranged to hold a vigil on the playground during breaktime on that first Monday. We had hundreds of young people and staff coming together in silence.”
Ms Boomer-Clark said the boys would have attended school prom this summer.
“We had a wall that was lit up in red for Mason and Liverpool football club and a wall in blue for Park Knowle Football Club,” she said. “The year group came together and supported each other through it.”
Detective had never seen ‘horrific’ weapons before
Detective Superintendent Gary Haskins said: “The weapons used in the attack on Mason and Max were simply horrific.
“I’ve been a detective for many, many years and I’ve had the misfortune of investigating some serious offences.
“In all my service I’ve not seen a weapon like the one we saw used on those two boys.
“There is no place for a weapon of that type in society for any reason whatsoever.”
The detective praised the boy’s families, who attended court throughout the trial.
He added: “I’m humbled by the families involved in this investigation. They’ve been at court every day, they’ve seen things at court that no parent should ever be exposed to. They saw the attacks on their children, but they maintain their dignity, their courage and their love for their family.
“How can you replace what they’ve lost? They’ve lost two beautiful sons, and I can only hope that the verdicts will bring some form of closure. It will never close completely.”
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The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.
The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.
Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.
And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.
Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers.
“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.
“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.
The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector.
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The UK’s GDP for the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.
The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.
It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.
The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.
The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.
Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.
The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.
“If you are a member of something, it means you’ve accepted membership. Anything with ‘ship’ on the end, it’s giving you a clue: it’s telling you that’s maritime law. That means you’ve entered into a contract.”
This isn’t your standard legal argument and it is becoming clear that I am dealing with an unusual way of looking at the world.
I’m in the library of a hotel in Leicestershire, a wood-panelled room with warm lighting, and Pete Stone, better known as Sovereign Pete, is explaining how “the system” works. Mr Stone is in his mid-50, bald with a goatee beard and wearing, as he always does for public appearances, a black T-shirt and black jeans.
With us are six other people, mainly dressed in neat jumpers. They’re members of the Sovereign Project (SP), an organisation Mr Stone founded in 2020, which, he says, now has more than 20,000 paying members.
As arcane as this may sound, it represents a worldview that is becoming more influential – and causing problems for authorities. Loosely, they’re defined as “sovereign citizens” or “freemen on the land”.
Their fundamental point is that nobody is required to obey laws they have not specifically consented to – especially when it comes to tax. They have hundreds of thousands of followers in the UK across platforms including YouTube, Facebook and Telegram.
Increasingly, they are coming into conflict with governments and the law. Sovereign citizens have ended up in the High Court in recent months, challenging the legalities of tax bills and losing on both occasions.
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In October, four people were sentenced to prison for the attempted kidnapping of an Essex coroner, who they saw as acting unlawfully. The self-appointed “sheriffs” attempted to force entry to the court, one of them demanding: “You guys have been practising fraud!”
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Moment ‘cult’ tries to kidnap coroner
The Sovereign Project is not connected to any of those cases, nor does it promote any sort of political action, let alone violence.
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Instead, they are focused on issues like questioning the obligation to pay taxes, as Mr Stone explains, referencing the feudal system that operated in the Middle Ages.
“Do you know about the feudal system when people were slaves and were forced to pay tax?” he asks.
“Now, unless the feudal system still operates today, and we still have serfs and slaves, then the only way that you can pay taxes is to have a contract, you have to agree to it and consent to it.”
Another member, Karl Deans, a 43-year-old property developer who runs the SP’s social media, says: “We’re not here to dodge tax.”
Local government tends to be a target beyond just demands for tax. Mr Stone speaks of “council employee crimes”.
I ask whether, considering the attempted kidnapping in Essex, there is a danger that people will listen to these accusations of crimes by councils and act on them.
“Well that’s proved,” Mr Stone says. “We only deal with facts.”
Evidence suggests this approach is becoming an issue for councils across the UK, as people search online for ways to avoid paying tax.
Sky News analysis shows that out of 374 council websites covering Great Britain, at least 172 (46%) have pages responding to sovereign citizen arguments around avoiding paying council tax. They point out that liability for council tax is not dependent on consent, or a contract, and instead relies on the Local Government Finance Act 1992, voted on by Parliament.
But the Sovereign Project’s worldview extends beyond council tax. It is deeply anti-establishment, at times conspiratorial. Stone suggests the summer riots may have been organised by the government.
“The sovereign fraternity operates above all of this,” he says. “We look down at the world like a chessboard. We see what’s going on.”
He explains that, really, the UK government isn’t actually in control: there is a shadow government above them.
“These are the people who control government,” he explains.
“A lot of people say this could be the crown council of 13, this could be a series of Italian families.”
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Professor Christine Sarteschi, an expert in sovereign citizens at Chatham University, Pittsburgh, says she’s worried about the threat sovereign citizens may pose to the rule of law, especially in the US where guns are readily available.
“The movement is growing and that’s evidenced by seeing it in different countries and hearing about different cases. The concern is that they will become emboldened and commit acts of violence,” she says.
“Because sovereigns truly believe in their ideas and if they feel very aggrieved by, you know, the government or whomever they think is oppressing them or controlling them… they can become emotionally involved.
“That emotional involvement sometimes leads to violence in some cases, or the belief that they have the power to attempt to overthrow a government in some capacity.”
Much of this seems to be based on an underlying and familiar frustration at the state of this country and of the world.
Mr Stone echoes some of the characteristic arguments also made by the right, that there is “two-tier policing”, that refugees arriving in the UK are “young men of fighting age”, that the government is using “forced immigration to destroy the country”.
Another SP member, retired investment banker David Hopgood, 61, says: “I firmly believe it is the true Englishman – and woman – of this country – that has the power to unlock this madness that’s happening in the West.
“We’ve got the Magna Carta – all these checks and balances. We just need to pack up, go down to Parliament and say: It’s time to dismiss you. You’re not fit for purpose.”
The members of the Sovereign Project are unfailingly patient and polite in explaining their understanding of the world.
But there is no doubt they hold a deeply radical view, one that is apparently growing in popularity.