Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse could have ramifications for the technology landscape over the coming years, analysts and investors said.
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Silicon Valley Bank was the backbone of many startups and venture capital funds around the world. The effects of its collapse, the biggest banking failure since the 2008 financial crisis, is likely to be felt across the technology landscape globally over the coming years.
“With SVB in essence the Godfather of the Silicon Valley banking ecosystem for the past few decades in the tech world, we believe the negative ripple impact of this historical collapse will have a myriad of implications for the tech world going forward,” Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note on Tuesday.
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SVB’s collapse began last week when it said it needed to raise $2.25 billion to shore up its balance sheet. Venture capital firms told their portfolio companies to withdraw money from the bank and other clients looked to get their cash before it became unobtainable. This effectively led to a bank run.
But the episode has the potential to impact the technology world in several ways, from making it harder for startups to raise funds to forcing firms to change their business model, according to investors and analysts who spoke to CNBC.
‘Last thing we needed’
SVB was critical to the growth of the technology industry, not just in the U.S. but in places like Europe and even China.
The 40-year old institution had an intimate link to the technology world offering traditional banking services as well as funding companies that were deemed too risky for traditional lenders. SVB also provided other services like credit lines and lines to startups.
When times were good, SVB thrived. But over the past year, the U.S. Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates, hurting the once high-flying technology sector. The funding environment has got harder for startups in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.
SVB’s collapse has come at an already difficult time for startup investors.
“This whole Silicon Valley Bank thing is the last thing we needed and was completely unexpected,” Ben Harburg, managing partner of Beijing, China-based venture capital fund MSA Capital, told CNBC.
Startups have had to tighten their belt while technology giants have axed tens of thousands of workers in a bid to cut costs.
In such an environment, SVB played a key role in providing credit lines or other instruments that allowed startups to pay their employees or ride out hard times.
“Silicon Valley Bank was very paternalistic to this sector, they not only provided payroll services, loans to founders against their illiquid credit, but lines of credit as well. And a lot of these companies were having trouble already raising equity and they were counting on those lines to extend their runway, to push out the cash burn beyond the recession we all expect.” Matt Higgins, CEO of RSE Ventures, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.
“That evaporated overnight and there’s not another lender that’s going to be stepping in to fill those shoes.”
Paul Brody, global blockchain leader at EY, told CNBC on Monday that a crypto firm called POAP, which is run by his friend, has half of the company’s money tied up in SVB and can’t get it out. The amount at SVB is “more than payroll can cover.” Patricio Worthalter, founder of POAP, told CNBC that the company had a “substantially high amount” of its treasury in SVB and has managed to retrieve 50%. However, payroll was “never at risk” and the company has “solid credit lines to tap into” if required, the founder added.
‘Reboot’
The SVB collapse will also likely put the focus on startups to pivot to profitability and be more disciplined with their spending.
“Companies will have to reboot the way they think about their business,” Adam Singolda, CEO of Taboola, told CNBC’s “Last Call” on Monday.
Hussein Kanji, co-founder of London-based Hoxton Ventures, said that over the next three years there will be more restructurings at companies, though some are holding off.
“I’m seeing a lot of ‘kick the can down the road’ behavior which isn’t that helpful. Do the hard things and don’t delay or procrastinate unless there is very good reason to. Things don’t often get easier in the future simply because you wish for them to,” Kanji told CNBC via email.
Wedbush’s Ives said that there could also be more collapses, adding that early stage tech startups with weaker hands could be forced to sell or shut down.
“The impact from this past week will have major ripple impacts across the tech landscape and Silicon Valley for years to come in our opinion,” Ives said in a note Sunday.
—CNBC’s Rohan Goswami and Ari Levy contributed to this report.
Microsoft owns lots of Nvidia graphics processing units, but it isn’t using them to develop state-of-the-art artificial intelligence models.
There are good reasons for that position, Mustafa Suleyman, the company’s CEO of AI, told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview on Friday. Waiting to build models that are “three or six months behind” offers several advantages, including lower costs and the ability to concentrate on specific use cases, Suleyman said.
It’s “cheaper to give a specific answer once you’ve waited for the first three or six months for the frontier to go first. We call that off-frontier,” he said. “That’s actually our strategy, is to really play a very tight second, given the capital-intensiveness of these models.”
Suleyman made a name for himself as a co-founder of DeepMind, the AI lab that Google bought in 2014, reportedly for $400 million to $650 million. Suleyman arrived at Microsoft last year alongside other employees of the startup Inflection, where he had been CEO.
More than ever, Microsoft counts on relationships with other companies to grow.
It gets AI models from San Francisco startup OpenAI and supplemental computing power from newly public CoreWeave in New Jersey. Microsoft has repeatedly enriched Bing, Windows and other products with OpenAI’s latest systems for writing human-like language and generating images.
Microsoft’s Copilot will gain “memory” to retain key facts about people who repeatedly use the assistant, Suleyman said Friday at an event in Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters to commemorate the company’s 50th birthday. That feature came first to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has 500 million weekly users.
Through ChatGPT, people can access top-flight large language models such as the o1 reasoning model that takes time before spitting out an answer. OpenAI introduced that capability in September — only weeks later did Microsoft bring a similar capability called Think Deeper to Copilot.
Microsoft occasionally releases open-source small-language models that can run on PCs. They don’t require powerful server GPUs, making them different from OpenAI’s o1.
OpenAI and Microsoft have held a tight relationship shortly after the startup launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, effectively kicking off the generative AI race. In total, Microsoft has invested $13.75 billion in the startup, but more recently, fissures in the relationship between the two companies have begun to show.
Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors in July 2024, and OpenAI in January announced that it was working with rival cloud provider Oracle on the $500 billion Stargate project. That came after years of OpenAI exclusively relying on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Despite OpenAI partnering with Oracle, Microsoft in a blog post announced that the startup had “recently made a new, large Azure commitment.”
“Look, it’s absolutely mission-critical that long-term, we are able to do AI self-sufficiently at Microsoft,” Suleyman said. “At the same time, I think about these things over five and 10 year periods. You know, until 2030 at least, we are deeply partnered with OpenAI, who have [had an] enormously successful relationship for us.
Microsoft is focused on building its own AI internally, but the company is not pushing itself to build the most cutting-edge models, Suleyman said.
“We have an incredibly strong AI team, huge amounts of compute, and it’s very important to us that, you know, maybe we don’t develop the absolute frontier, the best model in the world first,” he said. “That’s very, very expensive to do and unnecessary to cause that duplication.”
President Trump’s new tariffs on goods that the U.S. imports from over 100 countries will have an effect on consumers, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told CNBC on Friday. Investors will feel the pain, too.
Microsoft’s stock dropped almost 6% in the past two days, as the Nasdaq wrapped up its worst week in five years.
“As a Microsoft shareholder, this kind of thing is not good,” Ballmer said, in an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin that was tied to Microsoft’s 50th anniversary celebration. “It creates opportunity to be a serious, long-term player.”
Ballmer was sandwiched in between Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and current CEO Satya Nadella for the interview.
“I took just enough economics in college — that tariffs are actually going to bring some turmoil,” said Ballmer, who was succeeded by Nadella in 2014. Gates, Microsoft’s first CEO, convinced Ballmer to join the company in 1980.
Gates, Ballmer and Nadella attended proceedings at Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, campus on Friday to celebrate its first half-century.
Between the tariffs and weak quarterly revenue guidance announced in January, Microsoft’s stock is on track for its fifth straight month of declines, which would be the worst stretch since 2009. But the company remains a leader in the PC operating system and productivity software markets, and its partnership with startup OpenAI has led to gains in cloud computing.
“I think that disruption is very hard on people, and so the decision to do something for which disruption was inevitable, that needs a lot of popular support, and nobody could game theorize exactly who is going to do what in response,” Ballmer said, regarding the tariffs. “So, I think citizens really like stability a lot. And I hope people — individuals who will feel this, because people are feeling it, not just the stock market, people are going to feel it.”
Ballmer, who owns the Los Angeles Clippers, is among Microsoft’s biggest fans. He said he’s the company’s largest investor. In 2014, shortly after he bought the basketball team for $2 billion, he held over 333 million shares of the stock, according to a regulatory filing.
“I’m not going to probably have 50 more years on the planet,” he said. “But whatever minutes I have, I’m gonna be a large Microsoft shareholder.” He said there’s a bright future for computing, storage and intelligence. Microsoft launched the first Azure services while Ballmer was CEO.
Earlier this week Bloomberg reported that Microsoft, which pledged to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data center infrastructure in the current fiscal year, has stopped discussions or pushed back the opening of facilities in the U.S. and abroad.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, said in a Thursday note that the chance of a global recession will be 60% if Trump’s tariffs kick in as described. His previous estimate was 40%.
“Fifty years from now, or 25 years from now, what is the one thing you can be guaranteed of, is the world needs more compute,” Nadella said. “So I want to keep those two thoughts and then take one step at a time, and then whatever are the geopolitical or economic shifts, we’ll adjust to it.”
Gates, who along with co-founder Paul Allen, sought to build a software company rather than sell both software and hardware, said he wasn’t sure what the economic effects of the tariffs will be. Today, most of Microsoft’s revenue comes from software. It also sells Surface PCs and Xbox consoles.
“So far, it’s just on goods, but you know, will it eventually be on services? Who knows?” said Gates, who reportedly donated around $50 million to a nonprofit that supported Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ losing campaign.
AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi provided more clarity on the ad-tech company’s late-stage effort to acquire TikTok, calling his offer a “much stronger bid than others” on CNBC’s The Exchange Friday afternoon.
Foroughi said the company is proposing a merger between AppLovin and the entire global business of TikTok, characterizing the deal as a “partnership” where the Chinese could participate in the upside while AppLovin would run the app.
“If you pair our algorithm with the TikTok audience, the expansion on that platform for dollars spent will be through the roof,” Foroughi said.
The news comes as President Trump announced he would extend the deadline a second time for TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance to sell the U.S. subsidiary of TikTok to an American buyer or face an effective ban on U.S. app stores. The new deadline is now in June, which, as Foroughi described, “buys more time to put the pieces together” on AppLovin’s bid.
“The president’s a great dealmaker — we’re proposing, essentially an enhancement to the deal that they’ve been working on, but a bigger version of all the deals contemplated,” he added.
AppLovin faces a crowded field of other interested U.S. backers, including Amazon, Oracle, billionaire Frank McCourt and his Project Liberty consortium, and numerous private equity firms. Some proposals reportedly structure the deal to give a U.S. buyer 50% ownership of the company, rather than a complete acquisition. The Chinese government will still need to approve the deal, and AppLovin’s interest in purchasing TikTok in “all markets outside of China” is “preliminary,” according to an April 3 SEC filing.
Correction: A prior version of this story incorrectly characterized China’s ongoing role in TikTok should AppLovin acquire the app.