After the debacle of Liz Truss’s September mini-budget, with all its mega ramifications, and an autumn statement eight weeks later that performed an about-turn so big that the country’s tax burden hit a 70-year-high, Wednesday’s budget will be all about stability and sticking to the plan.
“No big bangs in this budget,” is how one senior government insider put it to me last week. “It’s got to be a growth budget.
“We’re fighting to be competitive again with Labour. If we can get to next summer and the economy is ticking up, and we can narrow the gap to five to eight points behind in the polls, there’s a chance in an election campaign we can shift the dial.”
What the chancellor and prime minister want to project this week is the sense that they are getting the economy back on track, and working towards Rishi Sunak’s pledges to halve inflation, get debt down and get the UK economy growing again.
Do that, argue his allies, and the tax cuts will come – just in time for a general election.
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But there is pressure, and lots of it, from voters and from the Tory backbenchers to do more on tax cuts and cost-of-living now, not tomorrow.
And that pressure is all the more palpable after the chancellor received a £30bn windfall in the public finances last month, after it emerged that in the year to January, the public sector had borrowed less than forecast in November by the UK’s official fiscal watchdog.
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Floating voters we spoke to in a focus group in one Tory shire seat last week told us that struggling with the cost-of-living and a buckling NHS were top of their concerns, and they expressed scepticism that the government was up to the job.
One voter in the Wycombe constituency in Buckinghamshire described the government as “stale”, with another telling us: “The current crisis emphasises that our government is fairly broken.”
On the cost-of-living, our group of floating voters spoke of their anxiety around energy bills, food prices and childcare.
Charlotte, a working mum, told us she had to change her working hours because she couldn’t afford childcare costs.
“I can’t afford to work full time anymore,” she told us. “It’s not feasible for our family, so I’ve had to rope my mum in to do childcare.
“I wouldn’t say we’re a low earning family. That’s just the way it is now.”
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2:54
Voters talk about their priorities with our political editor Beth Rigby.
Food bills were also a concern, with voters saying they’d switched to cheaper supermarkets and cut back in the face of galloping food price inflation.
Ashley, who in the past has voted Conservative but is now undecided, told us he’d switched his weekly shop from Tesco and M&S to Aldi, while energy bills were a problem all round.
“I’ve voted Conservative a long time,” the father-of-two told us. “And then I got a bit tired of, you know, Boris and the promises.
“We need to have some results and I want to see some improvement, not the deflection bit around immigration, [but] some real positive on the cost of living. For me, that’s the most key…it’s what’s important to people.”
The Treasury is alive to the pressure, with insiders telling me there will be two parts to Mr Hunt’s budget on Wednesday: a short-term support plan to provide immediate relief on the cost-of-living crisis and then the long-term plan for growth.
On the first part of that, the government is expected to extend the £2,500 energy price guarantee for another three months from April (where there had been a planned rise to £3,000) to give people support on their bills.
The chancellor is also under pressure to again freeze fuel taxes in this budget, at a cost of £6bn.
When it comes to childcare, a key battleground in the next election, the chancellor is expected to change the rules so that parents on Universal Credit are given more childcare and given the funding upfront.
The Treasury is also believed to be planning a hundreds of millions cash injection into expanding access to 30 hours of free access to the over threes.
The chancellor also plans to loosen staff to child ratios for two-year-olds, which could make the cost of childcare a little cheaper.
He is also planning to extend the provision of up to 30 hours a week to one and two-year-olds which could form a central plank in his pitch of helping with the cost of living and getting parents into work.
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These are some predictions for the budget.
And when it comes to the most obvious way of helping people manage their bills – wage packets – the government is standing firm, with Treasury insiders insisting there will be no above inflation pay sector awards.
Neither is the chancellor expected to offer voters any cuts to personal taxes.
“We haven’t got £30bn to cut taxes,” is how one government insider put it to me, in a nod to the boost from revised public finances.
“What we’ve got to do is get people back into work, be that through better childcare support or incentives to get those in their 50s back into work.
“That is where we have to focus policy, and that could amount to say £5bn and that comes out of the [£30bn] headroom.”
Because beyond the short-term support measures, the focus for this budget will be on trying to get the economy moving and getting people back to work post-pandemic, with a package of measures to try to shift parents, the sick, disabled and older workers back into jobs.
To that end, the chancellor is expected to raise the lifetime allowance for pension savings from £1m to an expected £1.8m – a record level – in order to try to incentivise doctors and other professionals out of retirement and back into work.
He could also lift the annual tax-free allowance for pensions from £40,000 to £60,000.
It’s a package that could cost £2bn a year and would be much welcomed by higher earners, but also opens the chancellor up to criticism that he is giving a tax break to the rich while offering nothing to basic rate taxpayers.
And when it comes to the other group of voters the chancellor and PM need to placate, his backbenchers, there is disquiet over the high level of tax burden, with many Tory MPs keen for tax cuts.
One former cabinet minister told me last week that they wanted to see the £30bn windfall in the public finances used to reverse the planned increase in corporation tax from 19p to 25p in April.
It is a pretty popular refrain.
But Treasury insiders insist the tax hike will go ahead and instead the chancellor will offer business tax breaks to try to encourage growth.
When Mr Sunak was chancellor back in March 2021, he created the £25bn “super-deduction” tax allowance for capital investment – a two-year measure offering 130% tax relief on companies’ purchases of equipment – in order to try to boost investment and growth.
Mr Hunt is coming up with a new set of plans to try to support business and could give firms much more generous capital allowances to incentivise investment.
Watch too for policies and reforms targeting certain industries and sectors, from artificial intelligence to green energy and advanced manufacturing: all of it will be framed as the government’s long-term plan for growth.
Image: Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be hoping to reassure people they are making the right choices for the UK economy.
Wednesday will be, if you like, the third act of the prime minister’s performance over the past few weeks to try and win a jaded public back around by trying to convince them he will stick to his plan and deliver on promises.
On the international stage, he has rehabilitated the UK with allies after the bumpy years of Prime Minister Johnson and then Prime Minister Truss, symbolised most strongly in a deal with the EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland – where even his foes conceded Mr Sunak had got more than they expected.
At home, the PM has put forward his plan to “stop the boats” – a key priority of many of the voters he needs to keep onside or win back in 2024.
Whether the plan, surrounded in legal and practical controversies, will come off remains to be seen.
But Mr Sunak will at least be able, to quote one of his allies, “build a narrative” that blames the failure of the policy around France and the EU refusing to grant the UK a returns agreement and the international courts blocking his plans.
“At least he can then make the argument it wasn’t his fault,” they said.
On Wednesday, the focus will be on the PM’s three economic targets – halving inflation, cutting debt and growing the economy – as the chancellor tries to lay down the best conditions he can for the Conservatives’ run into the general election in 2024.
Mr Sunak’s allies tell me they think there is a way back to victory for this government at the ballot box once again, but the “path is very narrow”.
A budget then building the foundations rather than lighting the fireworks, all of this the groundwork for the pre-election showstopper next year.
But with the cost-of-living squeeze so acute, the promise of jam tomorrow is unlikely to satisfy the public, particularly if those being given some of the spoils this time around look to be business and the wealthy.
Mr Hunt may be charged with steadying the ship, but he’ll have to be skilful on Wednesday not to lose more ground.
The Israeli military has said its investigation into the killing of aid workers in Gaza has found there were “several professional failures, breaches of orders, and a failure to fully report the incident”.
A commanding officer will be reprimanded and a deputy commander will be dismissed following the military investigation, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said.
Fifteen aid workers were shot dead by Israeli troops who opened fire on a convoy of vehicles, including ambulances, on 23 March.
They were then buried in a shallow grave where their bodies were found a week later by officials from the United Nations and the Palestinian Red Crescent.
The probe’s findings come after a Sky News investigation earlier this week revealed how the deadly attack unfolded, contradicting Israel’s official account of the killings.
At first, Israel claimed the medics’ vehicles did not have emergency signals on when troops fired their shots, but later backtracked.
Mobile phone footage which was recovered from one of the medics contradicted Israel’s initial account.
In a statement on Sunday, an IDF spokesperson said: “The Commanding Officer of the 14th Brigade will receive a reprimand, which will be recorded in his personal file, for his overall responsibility for the incident, including the procedure of combat and management of the scene afterward.
“The deputy commander of the Golani Reconnaissance Battalion will be dismissed from his position due to his responsibilities as the field commander in this incident and for providing an incomplete and inaccurate report during the debrief.”
Image: Footage was released of the attack on 23 March
‘Poor night visibility’
The investigation found that the deputy commander did not initially recognise the vehicles as ambulances “due to poor night visibility”, according to the spokesperson.
“Only later, after approaching the vehicles and scanning them, was it discovered that these were indeed rescue teams,” they added.
Probe looked at ‘three shooting incidents’
The IDF said that about an hour before the attack on the convoy, Israeli troops fired at what they “identified as a Hamas vehicle” and the forces “remained on high alert for further potential threats”.
In the convoy incident, the IDF said the soldiers “opened fire on suspects emerging from a fire truck and ambulances very close to the area in which the troops were operating, after perceiving an immediate and tangible threat”.
“Supporting surveillance” had reported five vehicles approaching rapidly and stopping near the troops, with passengers quickly disembarking, according to the IDF.
It said the deputy battalion commander “assessed the vehicles as employed by Hamas forces, who arrived to assist the first vehicle’s passengers”, adding that: “Under this impression and sense of threat, he ordered to open fire.”
According to the IDF, six of the 15 killed were “identified in a retrospective examination as Hamas terrorists”.
But the Sky News investigation found no evidence to support this claim.
The IDF also said there was a third incident about 15 minutes later where “the troops fired at a Palestinian UN vehicle due to operational errors in breach of regulations”.
“The troops’ commander initially reported the event, and additional details emerged later in the examination.”
Bodies were buried in mass grave
Eight Red Crescent personnel, six civil defence workers and a UN staff member were killed in the shooting on the convoy by troops carrying out operations in Tel al Sultan, a district of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
Troops then bulldozed over the bodies along with their mangled vehicles, burying them in a mass grave.
‘Decision to crush vehicles was wrong’
The IDF statement said that at dawn it was decided to “gather and cover the bodies to prevent further harm and clear the vehicles from the route in preparation for civilian evacuation”.
The body removal and vehicle crushing were carried out by field commanders, according to the military.
Removing the bodies was reasonable under the circumstances, but the decision to crush the vehicles was wrong, the investigation concluded, and “in general there was no attempt to conceal the event”.
The probe also found that “the [gun]fire in the first two incidents resulted from an operational misunderstanding by the troops, who believed they faced a tangible threat from enemy forces. The third incident involved a breach of orders during a combat setting”.
Pope Francis has made his first significant public appearance since he left hospital, greeting cheering crowds from the popemobile.
He blessed the thousands of faithful gathered to celebrate Easter Sunday at the Vatican.
The 88-year-old pontiff appeared frail as he was wheeled out onto the balcony over the entrance of St Peter’s Basilica, before being driven in the popemobile through the crowds of faithful gathered in St Peter’s Square.
He was met with cheers, applause and chants of “Viva il Papa” – meaning long live the Pope.
Image: Pope Francis being driven through the crowds in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
“Brothers and sisters, Happy Easter!” Pope Francis managed to say, before an aide read the rest of his annual Urbi et Orbi blessing and speech, which called for an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
“May the risen Christ grant Ukraine, devastated by war, his Easter gift of peace, and encourage all parties involved to pursue efforts aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace,” the message said.
Image: Pic: Reuters
“In this Jubilee year, may Easter also be a fitting occasion for the liberation of prisoners of war and political prisoners!”
Image: Pic: Reuters
Crowds then stretched out their hands and filmed as the Pope was driven past in the special vehicle.
The popemobile stopped a number of times in order for the pontiff to bless babies and small children, appearing to also give them gifts.
Image: The Pope blesses a baby as he travels around St Peter’s Square
Before the public appearance, the Pope “exchanged good wishes” with US vice president JD Vance during a private audience at the Vatican.
Image: The Pope meeting JD Vance on Easter Sunday. Pic: Vatican Media
Image: Pic: Vatican Media
Mr Vance, who is in Rome with his family, also met with Pope Francis on Saturday, where the Vatican said there had been “an exchange of opinions” over international conflicts, migrants and prisoners.
Image: The faithful gather in St. Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
Image: Members of the clergy. Pic: Reuters
Leading up to Easter, he skipped the solemn services of Good Friday and Holy Saturday. Before Sunday, his biggest outing had been a visit to Rome’s central prison to spend Holy Thursday with inmates.
He also missed the Easter Sunday open-air mass, which was led instead by Cardinal Angelo Comastri, the retired archpriest of St Peter’s Basilica.
As people take a break for the Easter holiday, in the Gaza Strip there is no respite from the 18-month-long war with Israel.
Gaza has a tiny Christian community of Greek Orthodox Christians, Catholics, Evangelicals, and Anglicans.
For Ramez al-Souri, the pain is unimaginable. His three children were killed by an Israeli airstrike, on an annex of Gaza’s Saint Porphyrius Greek Orthodox Church.
Palestinian health officials say the attack on 19 October 2023 killed 18 people inside the building.
“My home has changed completely because there are no smiles, no laughter, no joy,” Mr Al-Souri says.
“I lost my flower – my daughter Julie – and my boys Suhail and Majd. They were salt of the Earth.”
Shrouded in darkness
Julia was 12 years old, Suhial 14 and Majd 11.
It is a loss that never leaves Mr Al-Souri, and one shared by almost every family in Gaza.
Walking through the cemetery, he gently places a small bouquet of flowers on his children’s grave. Gunfire crackles in the distance. The neighbourhood is full of rubble and destruction.
“This Easter is no different than the last,” Mr Al-Souri says.
“We are tending to our wounds.
“We continue to hope for an end to this war and suffering, for the darkness over Gaza to finally lift.”
Mr Netanyahu said Israel has “no choice” but to keep fighting “for our very own existence until victory.”
Israel is calling for Hamas to disarm and to release 10 Israeli hostages in exchange for a 45-day ceasefire.
There are 59 hostages still inside Gaza. It is believed 24 of them are still alive.
Hamas has rejected the proposal. It argues Israel reneged on the first ceasefire deal by refusing to move to phase two of the agreement and withdraw Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.
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Netanyahu: ‘I will not give in’
A disaster on the ground
Since the ceasefire collapsed on 2 March, Israel’s bombing campaign has intensified.
Palestinian health officials say more than 1,700 people have been killed in the last month, and more than 90 people in the last 24 hours.
The humanitarian situation is a disaster. At the few remaining soup kitchens in Gaza, children scramble for food. They carry pots for their family and push forward trying to secure a bowl of lentils or rice.
Israel has blocked aid trucks from entering for the last seven weeks. It says it is to put pressure on Hamas.
But the pressure is being felt by civilians, creating what aid groups say is the most severe crisis Gaza has ever faced.
Israel has cut off vital supplies of food and medicine, but insists it is not using starvation as a weapon of war. It rejects any suggestion Gaza does not have enough food and accuses Hamas of stealing it.
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Gazans struggle to find bodies under rubble
‘We’re craving food’
Seven members of the Al-Asheh family are displaced and live in a tent in Deir al-Balah.
Twelve-year-old Ahmed says before the war he didn’t like lentils, now it is all he eats.
“Before the war, we used to have fruits, chicken, vegetables, everything was available. We were never hungry,” Ahmed explains.
“Now, we’re craving food, chicken – anything. The only thing we can eat now is what the soup kitchen provides.”
Image: Food is increasingly hard to come by in Gaza
It is clear that ceasefire talks are going nowhere, and Israel has tightened its blockade and deepened its war.
More than 400,000 Palestinians have recently been displaced yet again as Israel has expanded a buffer zone inside Gaza, levelling houses to create a “security zone”.
For Palestinians, this constitutes a “land grab”.
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Israeli forces encircle Rafah
‘A symbol of the world’s conscience’
Israel has also established another military corridor in southern Gaza, calling it Morag corridor.
The corridor is north of Rafah and has cut Gaza’s second-largest city off from the rest of the territory. Israel says it has now taken control of 30% of the Gaza Strip and insists it will not withdraw.
For Palestinians, the future has never looked more bleak. They are blockaded, displaced, struggling for food, water, basic sanitation and in constant search of safety.
“Gaza is calling on the world to stand by it,” Mr Al-Souri says.
“Gaza stands as a symbol of the world’s moral conscience.”