The China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal has big repercussions for the Middle East — and the U.S.
A man in Tehran holds a local newspaper reporting on its front page the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — When arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they were restoring diplomatic relations, much of the world was stunned — not only because of the breakthrough after years of mutual animosity, suspected attacks and espionage between the two countries, but because of who brokered the deal: China.
Taking up a specific role that the U.S. could not have fulfilled, this was Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades was largely occupied by Washington.
As tensions simmer between the world’s two largest economies and U.S. policymakers sound the alarm over competition and security concerns with China, what does Beijing’s ascendance in the region mean for the Middle East — and for U.S. interests?
“Many are breathing a sigh of relief [with] today’s official Iran-Saudi agreement,” Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, wrote on Twitter after the news was announced. “All 3 parties to the deal can claim victory, but Saudis are arguably the biggest winner,” he contended.
From the Saudi perspective, normalization with Iran — a country that’s long been seen by the Saudi monarchy as one of its greatest security threats — removes obstacles in its reform and economic transformation journey, according to Joseph Westphal, a former U.S. ambassador to the kingdom.
“I think the leadership there believes that this is a very important moment for Saudi Arabia as it emerges … as a real leader in the world on many issues,” Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday. “A constant struggle with Iran delays that and impedes the progress that they made.”
“Obviously, the United States could not have made this agreement possible because we don’t have a relationship with Iran,” the ambassador added. “I think China was a good partner to do this. I think they’re the right people,” he said, noting that China invests heavily in Saudi Arabia and is its top trading partner.
“So I think this is a very good thing all the way around.”
Hopes for de-escalation in areas like Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has carried out a brutal war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2015, are now more realistic than before, analysts say. Risks to shipping and oil supplies in the region may be reduced, and trade and investment between the countries could add to growth.
Reduced risk of direct military confrontation
At the very least, improved communication will reduce risks of confrontation, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, who called the deal “a much needed pressure valve amid heightened regional tensions.”
Still, it’s a mistake to assume that everything is solved.
“Due to the ongoing shadow war between Iran and Israel – and sporadic Iran-backed attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure throughout the region – the risk of escalation due to miscalculation is still uncomfortably high,” he said.
In the past few years, the region has seen numerous attacks, particularly on Saudi and Emirati ships and energy infrastructure, which Riyadh and Washington blamed on Iran. Tehran rejects the accusations.
“Riyadh and Tehran will remain adversaries with competing visions for the region,” Soltvedt stressed. “But improved channels for communication have the potential to reduce the risk of a direct military confrontation between the two states.”
Iran is also now enriching uranium at its highest level ever, and is believed to be just months away from nuclear bomb-making capability. Rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran may mean little if the latter’s nuclear program isn’t addressed.
Has Washington been snubbed?
The White House’s seeming reluctance to praise China was hard not to notice.
“We support any effort to de-escalate tensions in the region. We think it’s in our interests,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said of the news on Friday, adding that the Biden administration had made similar efforts in that direction.
But when asked about Beijing’s role, Kirby replied: “This is not about China and I’m not going to characterize here whatever China’s role is.”
Chinese President, Xi Jinping (L) is welcomed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (R) at the Palace of Yamamah in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 8, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The news signaled the growing influence of China in the Arab region. And not just economically, as it already exports an immense amount of goods to the Middle East and is the largest importer of Saudi oil – but politically. Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made concerted efforts to diversify their foreign relations and move away from being overly dependent on the U.S., as successive American administrations treat the Middle East as less of a priority.
“I think it demonstrates that U.S.’s influence and credibility in that region has diminished and that there is a new sort of international regional alignment taking place, which has empowered and given both Russia and China newfound influence and status,” Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Middle East policy advisor for the State Department, told NBC News.
He called the fact that China brokered the deal “stunning.”
US Marine Corps General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. (C, behind), commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Lieutenant General Fahd bin Turki bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (front), commander of the Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen, are shown reportedly Iranian weapons seized by Saudi forces from Yemen’s Huthi rebels, during his visit to a military base in al-Kharj in central Saudi Arabia on July 18, 2019.
Fayez Nureldine | AFP | Getty Images
Still, there seems to be a consensus that in terms of military power and security alliances in the region, U.S. influence is in no danger.
“No Chinese mediation — or any diplomatic involvement — will threaten US primacy in the region. All states, Iran included, know that,” Khalifa University’s Al-Saif said. The U.S.-Saudi Arabia security partnership spans nearly three-quarters of a century, and Saudi Arabia’s military arsenal is overwhelmingly supplied and maintained by the U.S. and American military personnel.
Neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.
Bader Al-Saif
Assistant professor of history, Khalifa University
In any case, China’s gain doesn’t have to mean a loss for the U.S., many believe.
“This shouldn’t be a zero sum game for the US. It can serve US interests: Iran nuclear deal, Yemen, Lebanon for starters can benefit from the agreement,” Al-Saif said.
“A quick move should follow on these files [because] the agreement may not last long,” he added. “Might as well reap benefits while it lasts.”
Will the deal hold?
It’s yet to be seen whether the agreement between the two Middle Eastern powers – and the mutual goodwill expressed in its wake – will last.
Many regional watchers are skeptical.
“Iran’s opting for engagement here should not be misinterpreted as a de-escalation,” Behnam ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC. “Tehran is capitalizing on deeper Chinese enmeshment in Persian Gulf trade as well as increased Saudi hedging of the pro-American order in the region.”
“There was zero political cost to the Islamic Republic to this agreement, whereas the mere optics and politics of it, let alone the substance, are in Iran’s favor,” he said, stressing his doubt that Iran will stop meddling in regional conflicts and other countries via proxies and militant activity.
Ben Taleblu also argued that Iran’s enmity with Israel played a role in its calculations as “Tehran is trying to show that it beat Jerusalem to Riyadh, and is trying to push back and break out of the diplomatic isolation it felt due to the Abraham Accords” when the UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel.
For al-Saif, there is “certainly hope for the agreement to live on” and lead to the prosperity that people of both countries deserve. “But,” he said, “neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.”
Donald Trump signed two executive orders today that walked back parts of tariffs he previously imposed on US automakers ahead of a rally in Michigan to mark his first 100 days in office.
The Wall Street Journal first reported today in an exclusive that Trump was “expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs and easing some levies on car parts.”
Trump signed an executive order making sure the 25% tariffs on vehicles and certain auto parts won’t stack on top of existing aluminum, steel, or Canada and Mexico tariffs. He also gave automakers a credit to help blunt the impact of the 25% duties on imported parts that go into US-built cars.
Trump’s backpedal comes after weeks of meeting with automaker executives, and a week after a coalition that included GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai sent a letter urging him to drop tariffs on foreign auto parts due to land in May.
American Automotive Policy Council (AAPC) president Matt Blunt today said in response to the executive orders, “American Automakers Ford, GM, and Stellantis appreciate the administration’s clarification that tariffs will not be layered on top of the existing Section 232 tariffs on autos and auto parts. Applying multiple tariffs to the same product or part was a significant concern for American automakers, and we are glad to see this addressed. We will review the details of the executive order closely to assess how effectively it will mitigate the impact of tariffs on American automakers, our domestic supply chains and ultimately American consumers.” The AAPC represents Ford, GM, and Stellantis.
Electrek’s Take
The 25% auto tariffs implemented under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act aren’t going anywhere, and most economists say that tariffs will raise car prices and slow auto sales. This White House Fact Sheet is titled, “President Donald J. Trump Incentivizes Domestic Automobile Production.” Where’s the incentive? US automakers are just getting hit with the stick once instead of twice, and they’re thanking Trump for it.
The carrot that worked as an incentive was Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, along with the stability that came with it. All this whiplash is terrible for the US and global economy.
Read more: Killing IRA EV tax credits will ruin US EV and battery industries – Princeton study
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New data suggests that the Tesla Powerwall 3 is significantly disrupting the US solar inverter market.
The home battery pack’s integrated inverter is changing the game.
Tesla acquired its solar business when it bought SolarCity in a controversial deal due to Musk being a large shareholder of both Tesla and SolarCity, and Musk’s cousin led the latter.
The automaker kept the SolarCity operations going for a few years. In fact, it continued until after Tesla shareholders sued Musk over the acquisition, and Musk defended himself by claiming that SolarCity had become an integral part of Tesla.
Shortly after he won the lawsuit, Tesla virtually stopped all operations that came from its SolarCity acquisition, which primarily consisted of residential solar financing and installations.
Tesla even stopped reporting solar deployment. The company’s energy business now consists almost entirely of Powerwall and Megapack deployments.
However, the launch of the Powerwall 3 has indirectly brought Tesla back into the solar business, as the home battery pack features an inverter that works for both solar and storage applications.
EnergySage is a company that matches solar installers with potential buyers, and as a result, it has a wealth of interesting data about the solar industry in the US. Today, it released its Spring 2025 Marketplace report.
In the report, EnergySage revealed that Tesla became the second-most quoted inverter brand in the second half of last year:
Tesla became the most quoted battery brand in H2 2024, occupying 63% of Marketplace share nationwide. Because the Powerwall 3 includes an integrated inverter, Tesla also became the second-most quoted inverter brand. With batteries increasingly being added to solar systems—the national battery attachment rate jumped to 45% in H2 2024, an all-time high—Tesla’s growth was a key driver of the low storage and solar prices seen on EnergySage. In 2025, we are examining whether brand backlash and equipment shortages will affect Tesla’s Marketplace share.
This is also a byproduct of the increased popularity of energy storage systems when deploying new solar systems.
In big solar markets like California and Texas, the majority of residential solar quotes are attached to batteries, and Tesla is not the top quoted brand, thanks to Powerwall 3:
Powerwall was already the preferred home battery pack for many homeowners, and the fact that it now includes a solar inverter has made it even more attractive, as most home energy storage systems in the US are being deployed along with rooftop solar.
The Powerwall 3’s solar inverter integration is pushing solar plus storage costs down quite a bit.
The popularity of the Powerwall 3 has particularly hurt Enphase, a leader in solar inverter. It had 73% of the US market in 2022, and now it is down to 53%.
Despite Tesla driving prices down, Powerwall 3 is not the cheapest battery pack available. Panasonic and EG4 batteries were both priced lower on a per kWh basis than Tesla’s in the second half of 2024, but Tesla won on cost when also replacing the solar inverter.
However, it’s not all good news from Tesla. EnergySage also recently reported an increase in customers requesting alternatives to Powerwalls in 2025, partly due to Elon Musk’s increasing controversy.
If you’re interested in installing solar panels and/or batteries for your home, we recommend using EnergySage. You will be able to get quotes without any hassle and only talk to someone when you are ready to move forward. Within minutes, you can get on the path to producing your own power with solar and battery storage, including with Powerwall.
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Here’s something most people don’t know: In the US, switching to solar and battery-based energy can actually save you money on taxes. And it’s not a future promise – it’s happening right now. Under the US Residential Clean Energy Credit, BLUETTI’s eligible solar systems and home batteries qualify for a 30% federal tax credit through 2032. That means with the right model, like the AC500 Home Battery Backup, you’re not only saving on electricity, you could also get a portion of your purchase back during tax season.
Meanwhile, gas generators are quietly costing more
There’s a reason so many people have relied on gas generators: they’re familiar, accessible, and have served us well for years. But as fuel prices continue to rise and usage becomes more frequent, the hidden costs of gas generators are quietly piling up:
- Ongoing fuel expenses, especially during summer or storm seasons
- Routine maintenance and part replacements
- Stricter regulations in certain areas limiting usage times
- Noise complaints and environmental concerns
It’s not about shaming these tools—it’s about recognizing when the cost-to-benefit ratio starts to shift.
Not ready to give up your generator? Start small with the BLUETTI AC60
The move to clean energy doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Sometimes, the right first step is simply trying a lightweight alternative, like the AC60 Portable Power Station (Pioneer 50).
- Compact and powerful: 600W output (1000W surge) covers most outdoor needs
- Historically affordable: Only $269 after subsidy
- Fast charging: 80% charge within an hour
- IP65-rated for water and dust resistance – ideal for outdoor life
- Backed by a 6-year warranty, cutting down on waste and replacement costs
- Expandable to 2,015Wh capacity for powering phones, laptops, and more
Whether you’re into camping, road trips, or just want something for light backup at home, portable power stations like AC60 are an easy way to test the waters – no big commitment needed.
Need something stronger? Apex 300 is built to last
For those looking to level up their home battery backup or long-term savings, the Apex 300 offers a durable, future-forward alternative. With second-gen EV-grade batteries rated for 6,000+ cycles, this power station can last up to 17 years – nearly twice as long as typical models.
More reasons why Apex 300 stands out:
- Ultra-efficient 20W AC idle drain extends fridge runtime by up to 24 hours and boosts CPAP usage by 2.5x compared to typical units
- Built-in 120V/240V dual output with 12,000W bypass that powers 99% of home appliances, even a Tesla EV
- 2-year savings sprint when paired with one Solar X 4K Charge Controller for a massive 6400W solar input
- Whisper-quiet at 40dB, no fumes, no fuel
- Time-of-use savings made easy: Easily schedule and monitor energy usage with a user-friendly app and a clear, intuitive LED screen
- Expandable ecosystem: Add extra B300K batteries or a smart 700W Hub D1 to grow your setup as your needs evolve, from whole-home backup to off-grid RV power
This isn’t about replacing your gas generator overnight. It’s about introducing a better Plan B that’s cleaner, quieter, and built for the long haul.
Thinking about a cleaner future? BLUETTI is offering a little help
In honor of Earth Day, BLUETTI has launched a new Clean Energy Incentive Program. Gas generator owners around the world can submit basic info about their devices and select a clean power product to receive an exclusive subsidy.
The compact AC60 and other select models are already available at subsidized prices through BLUETTI’s Clean Energy Incentive Program – a practical step designed to support a smoother, more affordable transition to greener living.
Meanwhile, early access to the all-new Apex 300 Portable Power Station is now open through May 19, ahead of its official launch on May 20 on Indiegogo.
Going green isn’t about rushing
It’s about small, thoughtful choices that build toward something better – for your home, your wallet, and the planet. BLUETTI believes real change happens step by step, just like the LAFF (Light An African Family) Initiative. By walking the same path as those in need, the team can better understand and manage which solutions will most effectively help families who need affordable, sustainable energy.
So even if your gas generator still works just fine, it might be worth looking at a smarter backup. The future doesn’t have to be all-or-nothing. It can start with one quiet step with BLUETTI’s solutions, and this simple step could lead to a brighter, more sustainable future for everyone.
About BLUETTI
BLUETTI is a dedicated advocate for sustainability, integrating ESG principles throughout product design and corporate initiatives. Through impactful projects like LAAF (Light An African Family), BLUETTI provides affordable, sustainable energy solutions to communities across Africa. By partnering with Leave No Trace, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, BLUETTI supports responsible outdoor recreation through clean energy solutions that minimize environmental footprints. This blend of craftsmanship, reliability, and a focus on real-world needs is what makes BLUETTI trusted in over 110 countries and regions.
Follow BLUETTI on Twitter/X here and on Facebook here.
All photos: BLUETTI
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