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The price of a bottle of wine could rise by 44p this summer after Jeremy Hunt limited a freeze on alcohol tax to pints.

The chancellor unveiled a surprise “Brexit pubs guarantee” in his budget that will keep the levy on beer and cider up to 11p lower than shop-bought booze.

But drinkers will see the duty on other alcohol soar by 10.1% in August in line with inflation after a freeze during the peak of the cost of living crisis.

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Mr Hunt said the exemption would protect pubs as he quipped: “British ale is warm but the duty on a pint is frozen.”

However, wine and whisky producers did not see the funny side as they accused the chancellor of inflicting a “historic blow” on their industries with the highest tax increases in nearly 50 years.

The Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) said the changes will mean that duty on a bottle of still wine will go up by 44p while a bottle of vodka could rise by 76p.

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For fortified wines, the increase will be even greater, with port potentially rising by £1.30 a bottle.

Miles Beale, Chief Executive of the WSTA, said the government was “punishing” businesses and consumers with “the largest increase in wine duty since 1975”.

“What does government have against people who choose to produce and drink wine?” he said.

“These crippling inflationary tax hikes will be lumped on top of stealth tax rises for some alcoholic products, which the government has built into the move to taxing alcohol by strength.

“After all the effort to relaunch hospitality supply chains in 2022, the government is offering no help in 2023 for the wine and spirit trade – and particularly for the UK’s 33 million wine drinkers who will see their – and the nation’s – favourite drink hit with a 44p duty rise in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis.”

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The Scottish Whisky Association (SWA) also claimed the rise in alcohol duty would be the “largest tax increase for decades”.

Chief executive Mark Kent told Sky News: “It’s bad news. It’s bad news for the consumer, it’s bad news for inflation, bad news for spirits, bad news for scotch and bad news for Scotland which produces 90% of all UK spirits.”

The whisky boss said the duty rise means 75% of the cost of a bottle of scotch will go to the exchequer in tax – about £11 out of £15.

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The key points

Mr Kent said that is “the biggest tax hike since 1981” and the largest rate in the G7.

“We are already the highest taxed country in the G7 for spirits and our taxes are 60% more on average than the EU, so all of this puts us at a competitive disadvantage compared to other countries,” he said.

“It discriminates against people who drink spirits, what we want to see is a fair system where the unit of alcohol, however you choose to consume it, is taxed at the same rate.”

He warned the hit to profit will impact jobs and investment as he called on MPs to reject the measure.

“Our message has been clear, the best outcome would be a freeze because that has shown to bring in increasing revenues for the exchequer and supports businesses to invest more in the economy and in jobs.”

Jeremy Hunt
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Jeremy Hunt has been urged to U-turn on the decision to end the alcohol tax freeze

‘Brexit pubs guarantee’

Explaining the beer exemption as he set out his budget, Mr Hunt said he wanted to protect “one of our other most treasured community institutions, the great British pub”.

He told the Commons: “In December, I extended the alcohol duty freeze until August 1, after which duties will go up in line with inflation in the usual way.

“But today, I will do something that was not possible when we were in the EU and significantly increase the generosity of Draught Relief so that from August 1 the duty on draught products in pubs will be up to 11p lower than the duty in supermarkets, a differential we will maintain as part of a new Brexit pubs guarantee.

“Madam deputy speaker, British ale may be warm, but the duty on a pint is frozen.”

Many Tory MPs welcomed the announcement, while the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) said it was a “positive” step in time for summer.

But Emma McClarkin, the BBPA’s chief executive, added: “The fact is our industry will be facing an overall tax hike, not a reduction, come August. Duty on non-draught beer will rise and the measures introduced today won’t rebalance the catastrophic impact soaring inflation and unfair energy contracts are having on both pubs and the breweries that supply them.”

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

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Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

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The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

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Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

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UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

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UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

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In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

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Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.

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Government to announce new scheme as it ramps up AI adoption with backing from Facebook owner Meta

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Government to announce new scheme as it ramps up AI adoption with backing from Facebook owner Meta

The government is speeding up its adoption of AI to try and encourage economic growth – with backing from Facebook parent Meta.

It will today announce a $1m (£740,000) scheme to hire up to 10 AI “experts” to help with the adoption of the technology.

Sir Keir Starmer has spoken repeatedly about wanting to use the developing technology as part of his “plan for change” to improve the UK – with claims it could produce tens of billions in savings and efficiencies.

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The government is hoping the new hires could help with problems like translating classified documents en masse, speeding up planning applications or help with emergency responses when power or internet outages occur.

The funding for the roles is coming from Meta, through the Alan Turing Institute. Adverts will go live next week, with the new fellowships expected to start at the beginning of 2026.

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said: “This fellowship is the best of AI in action – open, practical, and built for public good. It’s about delivery, not just ideas – creating real tools that help government work better for people.”

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He added: “The fellowship will help scale that kind of impact across government, and develop sovereign capabilities where the UK must lead, like national security and critical infrastructure.”

The projects will all be based on open source models, meaning there will be a minimal cost for the government when it comes to licensing.

Meta describes its own AI model, Llama, as open source, although there are questions around whether it truly qualifies for that title due to parts of its code base not being published.

The owner of Facebook has also sponsored several studies into the benefits of government adopting more open source AI tools.

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Mr Kyle’s Department for Science and Technology has been working on its mission to increase the uptake of AI within government, including through the artificial intelligence “incubator”, under which these fellowships will fall.

The secretary of state has pointed to the success of Caddy – a tool that helps call centre workers search for answers in official documents faster – and its expanding use across government as an example of an AI success story.

He said the tool, developed with Citizens Advice, shows how AI can “boost productivity, improve decision-making, and support frontline staff”. A trial suggested it could cut waiting times for calls in half.

My Kyle also recently announced a deal with Google to provide tech support to government and assist with modernisation of data.

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Joel Kaplan, the chief global affairs officer from Meta, said: “Open-source AI models are helping researchers and developers make major scientific and medical breakthroughs, and they have the potential to transform the delivery of public services too.

“This partnership with ATI will help the government access some of the brightest minds and the technology they need to solve big challenges – and to do it openly and in the public interest.”

Jean Innes, the head of the Alan Turing Institute, said: “These fellowships will offer an innovative way to match AI experts with the real world challenges our public services are facing.”

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