The chancellor today skirted round contentious topics like onshore wind and home insulation in his budget, but did promise cash for nuclear power, carbon capture and energy bills.
The underlying commitment to net zero and clean energy were generally welcomed.
But campaigners have accused Jeremy Hunt of prioritising risky, “fanciful” technologies – such as machines that suck up carbon dioxide and bury it underground – over proven, but politically difficult, climate policies like boosting onshore renewables.
There is also widespread concern the budget does little to compete with the hundreds of billions unveiled by the US and EU to stimulate green growth investment, risking the UK falling behind in the “green industrial revolution”.
Nuclear reaction
A key announcement was that nuclear is to be classed as “environmentally sustainable”, subject to consultation, in a bid to pull in investment in the same way enjoyed by renewable energy.
Nuclear is costly and lengthy to build but provides reliable power without the pollution.
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Government climate advisers say some nuclear power is vital to the UK’s clean energy future.
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£20bn allocated to Carbon Capture Storage
But the chancellor was criticised for rehashing old pledges.
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He gleefully announced Great British Nuclear, an agency designed to revive the nuclear industry – but this has been promised before.
“The chancellor’s words on nuclear give a positive message, but it’s more like a ‘greatest hits’ compilation from the past, rather than anything new,” said Professor Adrian Bull, BNFL chair in Nuclear Energy and Society at the Dalton Nuclear Institute at Manchester University.
The government also announced a competition for mini reactors known as “small modular reactors (SMRs)”, which are not yet widely available.
If this young technology is “demonstrated to be viable” the government will “co-fund this exciting new technology”, the chancellor said.
This too resembles a previous announcement. In 2015 then-chancellor George Osborne launched a competition to identify the best design and get one built in the 2020s – a target yet to be hit.
Chris Stark, chief executive of the government’s climate advisors the Climate Change Committee (CCC), said nuclear seems to “have been announced and re-announced so many times”.
“SMRs [sic] would be useful if they are delivered as quickly as promised. Whether they will be though…” he wrote on Twitter.
Carbon capture, utilisation and storage
Another leap of faith, on top of the push for SMRs, is the push on carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).
It is an expensive technology, still in its infancy.
But the UK cannot afford to bypass CCUS, climate advisers said last week, because it is not cutting emissions enough.
Today the government pledged £20bn towards the technology in order to “increase resilience to future energy price shocks” – suggesting it would primarily be used to allow the UK to burn more gas, rather than to capture emissions from factories, for example.
Dr Steve Smith from Oxford University’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment said the funding was “good news” but needs extra policy decisions from government to become viable.
Some campaigners warn the UK is using it as an excuse not to cut emissions.
“Locking in reliance on gas power will increase our vulnerability to future energy price shocks, while adding in the additional costs, risks and uncertainty of trying to capture emissions from gas power plants,” said Alethea Warrington, senior campaigner at climate charity Possible.
“Including carbon capture will add even more costs, while being unproven to actually work and putting our climate, as well as our finances, at risk.”
Meanwhile Greenpeace called the £20bn over 20 years “frankly pathetic compared to the green growth investments being made in the US, EU and China”.
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Tom Heap investigates hydrogen’s role in the future of heating UK homes.
Capital expensing – and can the UK rival the US and EU’s mega green growth packages?
Sam Hall, director of the Conservative Environment Network, said today’s measures do bring the country closer to net zero.
He welcomed the announcement of full capital expensing for the next three years, saying it would help attract more investment in renewables and the supply chain. This should please the offshore wind sector.
“But with the USA and EU offering enormous green subsidies, the UK needs to up its game” to remain an attractive place to invest in wind and solar, as well as the next generation of clean industries like sustainable aviation fuel and green hydrogen, added Mr Hall.
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Experts are warning of the risk to rivers following the driest February for 30 years.
But the government will be talking more about net zero before the end of the month – the deadline by which it has to respond to a legal ruling on its net zero strategy.
The courts found the government’s net zero strategy was unlawful because it failed to outline how climate policies would meet legally binding carbon budgets – forcing ministers to rework their plans.
‘Zero mention of renewables’
Many were disappointed that the chancellor steered clear of lifting a de facto ban on onshore wind.
Antony Froggatt, of thinktank Chatham House’s Environment and Society Programme, said: “In the UK Budget there is zero mention of renewables and only £105m set aside for community supported energy efficiency compared to £235m funding for potholes.”
Onshore wind is politically contentious, with recent governments changing their minds on it.
Meanwhile, the EU and US are “rolling up their sleeves and supporting the domestic production of electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, that will bring jobs now and make a difference in the 2020s”, said Mr Froggatt.
He warned the chancellor to “be careful the UK isn’t left at the starting line of this new and more competitive low carbon race.”
Friends of the Earth criticised the “glaring gap” in the budget on onshore wind and home insulation.
Energy bill help a ‘sticking plaster’ compared with home insulation
Good news amid the cost of living crisis came in the form of a decision to extend the energy price guarantee, which caps average household bills at £2,500, for a further three months to June.
It had been due to rise to £3,000 in April and the cost of scrapping the planned 20% increase will amount to around £3bn.
However, the chancellor stopped short of new commitments on home insulation, which advocates say would bring down household bills permanently.
In his autumn statement Hunt did pledge £6.6bn during this parliament for energy efficiency, and a further £6bn from 2025. But energy groups say £6bn a year is needed to upgrade leaky homes and promote heat pumps.
Insulation rates were over 90% higher in the 2000 and 2010s to 2013, at which point the Cameron administration “cut the green crap”, according to thinktank ECIU.
Jo-Jo Hubbard, CEO of network optimisation specialist Electron, called the energy bill support a “sticking plaster” that is “about to wash off.”
Upgrade the grid!
Instead the government should upgrade Britain’s outdated electricity network, added Ms Hubbard, one of many in the industry warning of the problems it is creating.
At the moment consumers are paying for wind to be switched off when the grid can’t handle the capacity. New power capacity is also waiting to be connected, said Ms Hubbard.
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The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.
The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.
Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.
And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.
Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.
“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.
“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.
The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector
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The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.
The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.
It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.
The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.
The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.
Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.
The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.
Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.
“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.
It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.
It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.
Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit
Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of EnglandAndrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.
A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.
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Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.
Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.
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Bailey: Inflation expected to rise
In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.
The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.
“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.
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The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.
Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.
He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”
When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.
Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.
As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.
Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.
Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.
By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.
“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.
Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.
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Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.
Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.
Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth
If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.
He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.
Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.
With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.
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Governor warns inflation expected to rise
He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.
While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.
There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.
“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.
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