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Jeremy Hunt said the British economy is “proving the doubters wrong” and will avoid recession, as he delivered his first full budget speech to Parliament.

The chancellor said the government’s plan for the economy was “working” as he announced what he called a “budget for growth”.

He said forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) showed the UK would avoid recession – two-quarters of negative growth – in 2023, despite previous predictions.

But the economy will still contract overall this year by 0.2%, and the OBR has warned living standards are still expected to fall by the largest amount since records began.

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The key points of the budget at a glance

The forecaster said the drop would be lower than previously expected but that real households’ disposable income per person would still tumble 5.7% over the two financial years 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Households will therefore feel the pinch more than at any point since 1957, according to the OBR.

Click here for our budget calculator to see if you are better or worse off

The OBR forecasts also said inflation in the UK would fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023.

Mr Hunt said it showed Rishi Sunak’s goal of halving inflation this year would be met, but he added: “We remain vigilant and will not hesitate to take whatever steps are necessary for economic stability”.

However, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the chancellor’s “boasts” about lower inflation were “ridiculous”, adding: “The idea that it’s a tax cut, British people can see through that.

“They see their tax burden at its highest level for 70 years and they know it’s not the government that’s lowering inflation.

“It’s working people, earning less, enjoying less. It’s their sacrifice that is helping to bring inflation down and they deserve better than another cheap trick from the government of gimmicks, making them pay whilst trying to claim the credit.”

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Interest Rate Expectations
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Interest Rate Expectations

A number of other plans were unveiled by Mr Hunt, including:

• Bringing charges for prepayment meters in line with direct debit charges, impacting over four million households and saving them an average of £45 per year

• Making duty on draught products in pubs up to 11p lower than supermarkets

• Maintaining the freeze in fuel duty

The chancellor also said £11bn will be added to the defence budget over the next five years – following an announcement earlier this week – saying it would be nearly 2.25% of GDP by 2025. The government’s ambition is for it to reach 2.5%, he added.

And after reports he would increase the pensions lifetime allowance to £1.8m in an attempt to encourage doctors and other high earners back to work, Mr Hunt decided to scrap the limit entirely, as well as increasing the pensions annual tax-free allowance from £40,000 to £60,000.

He told the Commons: “In the face of enormous challenges I report today on a British economy which is proving the doubters wrong.

“In the autumn we took difficult decisions to deliver stability and sound money. Since mid-October, 10-year gilt rates have fallen, debt servicing costs are down, mortgage rates are lower and inflation has peaked.

“The International Monetary Fund says our approach means the UK economy is on the right track.”

But Sir Keir said the only permanent tax cut in the budget was for “the richest 1%”, adding: “How can that possibly be a priority for this government?”

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‘This a failure you can measure not just in the figures but in the empty pockets of working people,’ says the Labour leader.

The Labour leader continued: “Again we see a failure to grip the long-term challenges. No determination to create growth that unlocks the potential of the many – working people being made to pay for Tory choices and Tory mistakes.”

Some policies were revealed ahead of the chancellor’s speech, including keeping the cap on energy prices at £2,500 for a further three months, despite a planned rise to £3,000 in April, and 12 new investment zones.

Sky News also reported last night his promise to provide 30 hours of childcare a week to parents of one and two-year-olds, and to give a further cash injection to the sector to increase the availability of existing free childcare for three to four-year-olds.

But Mr Hunt went further on this measure, saying the care would be available from September 2024 when a child reaches nine months, as well as promising to increase funding for nurseries and pay those on Universal Credit upfront for the childcare they need to get.

However, he also confirmed the ratio for how many children each staff member looks after can be raised from one per four to one per five – though he said it was optional for both providers and parents.

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Hunt explains childcare delay

There were more announcements to fit with Mr Hunt’s “three E’s” philosophy – enterprise, employment and education.

They included:

• Incentive payments of up to £1,200 for childminders who sign up to the profession

• Enhanced credit for small and medium businesses, and creative firms

• An extension to relief for theatres, orchestras and museums

• Tax relief on energy efficient measures in firms

• £900m investment into supercomputing

The chancellor also confirmed widely reported plans to abolish the Work Capability Assessment for disabled people to “separate benefit entitlement from an individual’s ability to work”.

Mr Hunt promised a new programme called Universal Support, describing it as “a new, voluntary employment scheme for disabled people where the government will spend up to £4,000 per person to help them find appropriate jobs and put in place the support they need”.

And he said there would be a £400m fund to help those who are forced to leave work because of a health condition to get support in the workplace.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt MP has announced that the energy price guarantee will remain at £2,500 until the end of June.

Mr Hunt confirmed he would keep the incoming rise in corporation tax – from 19% to 25% – despite anger from some of his own backbenchers.

But in a bid to keep businesses happy, he introduced a new benefit where every pound a company invests in equipment can be deducted in full and immediately from taxable profits – “a corporation tax cut worth an average of £9bn a year for every year it is in place”.

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In what appeared to echo recent Labour policy, the chancellor announced continued state-financed investment in nuclear power and the launch of Great British Nuclear, saying the public body will “bring down costs and provide opportunities across the nuclear supply chain to help provide up to one quarter of our electricity by 2050”.

And he said nuclear energy would be reclassified as “environmentally sustainable” to give it the same access to investment incentives as renewables.

Today’s statement was Mr Hunt’s first full budget as chancellor – having been brought in by Liz Truss to reverse a number of measures from her disastrous mini-budget last October and kept on by Rishi Sunak after he took over as prime minister.

It came against a backdrop of mass industrial action, with hundreds of thousands of workers today staging what is believed to be the biggest walkout since the current wave of unrest began.

Teachers, university lecturers, civil servants, junior doctors, London Underground drivers and BBC journalists are among those taking to picket lines around the country amid widespread anger over pay, job security, pensions and conditions.

Labour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said ahead of the budget that it was “an opportunity for the government to get us off their path of managed decline”.

She added, if her party were in power, their focus would be on securing the highest growth in the G7.

“Our plan will help us lead the pack again, by creating good jobs and productivity growth across every part of our country, so everyone, not just a few, feel better off,” she added.

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English water firms get lowest environmental rating since records began

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English water firms get lowest environmental rating since records began

English water companies have collectively been given the lowest environmental rating by the Environment Agency (EA) since records began.

Companies were ranked on a scale of one to four stars. Out of a maximum score of 36 stars for all nine companies, the firms together scored 19, the lowest since the EA began monitoring.

The only utility to receive the highest four-star rank was Severn Trent, the agency said in its annual performance assessment.

The number of serious incidents, in which “significant” environmental harm was caused, increased by 60% last year compared to 2023.

Just three companies were responsible for the vast majority of incidents.

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Thames Water – the country’s biggest supplier – Southern Water and Yorkshire Water were responsible for 81% of all incidents.

More on Thames Water

Only two firms out of nine – Northumbrian Water and Wessex Water – recorded no serious incidents.

More monitoring, inspections and data have meant that knowledge of pollution in English waterways is now greater than ever. In turn, the amount of reporting has been greater.

Other factors driving the figures are underinvestment and poor maintenance of infrastructure, as well as wet and stormy weather.

Firms have again been called on by the Environment Agency to “urgently” improve their performance. There had previously been a trend of improvement since records began in 2011, but the latest figures indicated a “dip”.

In addition to pollution incidents, companies were assessed on self-reporting and compliance with permits.

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Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?

A separate report by water regulator Ofwat published on Thursday showed “mixed” performance with improvements in sewer flooding and pipe leakage, but only two companies reported a reduction in pollution incidents over five years.

Regulation of the sector has been criticised in a once-in-a-generation review of the water industry by career civil servant Sir Jon Cunliffe. In the wake of it, the government says Ofwat is to be retired.

Pressure has mounted on utilities across the UK as the public has sought action on poor water quality and rising bills.

Thames Water, in particular, is struggling under a £20bn debt pile with the government lining up insolvency practitioners.

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Autistic volunteer told he could no longer work for Waitrose hired by Asda

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Autistic volunteer told he could no longer work for Waitrose hired by Asda

An autistic man who was told he could no longer stack shelves at Waitrose when he asked to be paid has been offered a job by Asda.

Tom Boyd, 28, began volunteering unpaid at the branch of Waitrose in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester, in 2021, supported by a care worker, to develop skills for the workplace on a further education course he was taking.

The work gave him a sense of “purpose and belonging”, his mother, Frances Boyd, told the BBC.

When she asked in July if he could be paid for a few hours every week, however, the supermarket’s head office told him he had to stop and could not return to the shop.

Ms Boyd said they felt “deeply let down” by the decision as he had taken great pride in his work, which included putting out stock and tidying the shelves.

“If I went in and saw him, he was smiling, and it gave him independence, a sense of purpose and belonging,” she said.

“He gave over 600 hours of his time purely because he wanted to belong, contribute, and make a difference…

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“He deserved better. He deserved kindness, respect and the chance for all his hard work to mean something.”

Mr Boyd has now been offered two paid five-hour shifts each week by Asda.

“It’s overwhelming and they are flexible to say if at any time he is struggling they are fine,” his mother said.

“How amazing that a company could do this.”

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Welcoming the news on X, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said he hoped it would lead to more employers accepting a neurodivergent code of best practice he has launched.

An Asda spokesperson said that when the store heard about Mr Boyd’s desire to find meaningful work they knew he would be a “fantastic fit” and were delighted to offer him a role.

“We know that finding meaningful work can be especially challenging for individuals with learning disabilities or difficulties,” they said.

“Asda has a Supported Internship Programme and partnership with DFN Project SEARCH, through which we have welcomed over 30 talented new colleagues into roles across our stores. We have seen the positive impact this has for the individuals who join and for our colleagues and customers too.”

A Waitrose spokesperson said they “care deeply” about helping people into the workplace who might not otherwise be given a chance and that the chain is currently investigating what happened to Mr Boyd.

“We’d like to welcome Tom back, in paid employment, and are seeking support from his family and the charity to do so. We hope to see him back with us very soon,” they added.

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Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

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Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

US sanctions against Russia’s two largest energy companies, the state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, are perhaps the most significant economic measures imposed by the West since the invasion of Ukraine.

If fully implemented, they have the potential to significantly choke off the flow of fossil fuel revenue that funds Russia’s war machine, but their power lies not in directly denying Russia access to the tankers, ports and refineries that make the oil trade turn, but the US financial system that greases the wheels.

Ever since the invasion, the Russian government has proved masterful at evading sanctions, aided and abetted by allies of economic convenience and an oil industry with decades of experience.

Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy expresses relief at Trump move

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New US sanctions on Russia: What do we know?

While the West, principally the EU, has largely turned off the taps and stopped buying Russian oil, China, India and Turkey became the largest consumers, with a shadow fleet of tankers ensuring exports continued to flow.

Data from the Centre for Research into Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that while fossil fuel revenues have fallen from more than €1bn a day before the war, they have remained above €600m since the start of 2023, only dipping towards €500m in the last month.

None of that oil has been heading for the US, but these sanctions will directly impact the ability of the Russian companies, and anyone doing business with them, to operate within America’s financial orbit.

According to the order from the US Office for Foreign Asset Control, the sanctions block all assets of the two companies, their subsidiaries and a number of named individuals, as well as preventing US citizens or financial institutions from doing business with them.

It also threatens foreign financial institutions that “facilitate transactions… involving Russia’s military-industrial base” with direct or secondary sanctions.

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
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Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters

In practice, the measures should prevent the two companies from accessing not just dollars, but trading markets, insurance and other services with any financial connection to the US.

Taken in harness with similar steps announced by the UK earlier this month, analysts believe they can have a genuinely chilling effect on the market for Russian oil and gas.

Russia’s customers for oil in China, India and Turkey will also be affected, with the largest companies, state-owned and private, expected to be unwilling to take the risk of engaging directly with sanctioned entities.

Indian companies are already reported to be “recalibrating” their imports following the announcement, which came just a week after Donald Trump announced an additional 25% import tariff on Indian goods as punishment for the country’s reliance on Russian oil.

Read more:
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That does not mean that Russian oil and gas exports will cease. There are other unsanctioned Russian energy companies that can still trade, and ever since the first barrel of oil was tapped, the industry has proved adept at evading sanctions intended to interrupt its flow from one country or another.

Any significant increase in the oil price beyond the 5% seen in the aftermath of the announcement could also put pressure on the White House, which is at least as sensitive to fuel prices at home as it is to foreign wars.

But analysts Kpler expect the sanctions to cause “an immediate, short-term hiatus in Russian crude exports, as it will take time for sellers to reorganise and rebuild their trading systems to circumvent restrictions and ease buyers’ concerns”.

And Russian gas will, for now, continue to flow into Europe, where distaste for Vladimir Putin‘s imperial ambitions has not killed the appetite for his fuel. While the EU has this week imposed sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG), they will not be fully enforced until 2027.

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