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Jeremy Hunt said the British economy is “proving the doubters wrong” and will avoid recession, as he delivered his first full budget speech to Parliament.

The chancellor said the government’s plan for the economy was “working” as he announced what he called a “budget for growth”.

He said forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) showed the UK would avoid recession – two-quarters of negative growth – in 2023, despite previous predictions.

But the economy will still contract overall this year by 0.2%, and the OBR has warned living standards are still expected to fall by the largest amount since records began.

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The forecaster said the drop would be lower than previously expected but that real households’ disposable income per person would still tumble 5.7% over the two financial years 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Households will therefore feel the pinch more than at any point since 1957, according to the OBR.

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The OBR forecasts also said inflation in the UK would fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023.

Mr Hunt said it showed Rishi Sunak’s goal of halving inflation this year would be met, but he added: “We remain vigilant and will not hesitate to take whatever steps are necessary for economic stability”.

However, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the chancellor’s “boasts” about lower inflation were “ridiculous”, adding: “The idea that it’s a tax cut, British people can see through that.

“They see their tax burden at its highest level for 70 years and they know it’s not the government that’s lowering inflation.

“It’s working people, earning less, enjoying less. It’s their sacrifice that is helping to bring inflation down and they deserve better than another cheap trick from the government of gimmicks, making them pay whilst trying to claim the credit.”

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Interest Rate Expectations
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Interest Rate Expectations

A number of other plans were unveiled by Mr Hunt, including:

• Bringing charges for prepayment meters in line with direct debit charges, impacting over four million households and saving them an average of £45 per year

• Making duty on draught products in pubs up to 11p lower than supermarkets

• Maintaining the freeze in fuel duty

The chancellor also said £11bn will be added to the defence budget over the next five years – following an announcement earlier this week – saying it would be nearly 2.25% of GDP by 2025. The government’s ambition is for it to reach 2.5%, he added.

And after reports he would increase the pensions lifetime allowance to £1.8m in an attempt to encourage doctors and other high earners back to work, Mr Hunt decided to scrap the limit entirely, as well as increasing the pensions annual tax-free allowance from £40,000 to £60,000.

He told the Commons: “In the face of enormous challenges I report today on a British economy which is proving the doubters wrong.

“In the autumn we took difficult decisions to deliver stability and sound money. Since mid-October, 10-year gilt rates have fallen, debt servicing costs are down, mortgage rates are lower and inflation has peaked.

“The International Monetary Fund says our approach means the UK economy is on the right track.”

But Sir Keir said the only permanent tax cut in the budget was for “the richest 1%”, adding: “How can that possibly be a priority for this government?”

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‘This a failure you can measure not just in the figures but in the empty pockets of working people,’ says the Labour leader.

The Labour leader continued: “Again we see a failure to grip the long-term challenges. No determination to create growth that unlocks the potential of the many – working people being made to pay for Tory choices and Tory mistakes.”

Some policies were revealed ahead of the chancellor’s speech, including keeping the cap on energy prices at £2,500 for a further three months, despite a planned rise to £3,000 in April, and 12 new investment zones.

Sky News also reported last night his promise to provide 30 hours of childcare a week to parents of one and two-year-olds, and to give a further cash injection to the sector to increase the availability of existing free childcare for three to four-year-olds.

But Mr Hunt went further on this measure, saying the care would be available from September 2024 when a child reaches nine months, as well as promising to increase funding for nurseries and pay those on Universal Credit upfront for the childcare they need to get.

However, he also confirmed the ratio for how many children each staff member looks after can be raised from one per four to one per five – though he said it was optional for both providers and parents.

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Hunt explains childcare delay

There were more announcements to fit with Mr Hunt’s “three E’s” philosophy – enterprise, employment and education.

They included:

• Incentive payments of up to £1,200 for childminders who sign up to the profession

• Enhanced credit for small and medium businesses, and creative firms

• An extension to relief for theatres, orchestras and museums

• Tax relief on energy efficient measures in firms

• £900m investment into supercomputing

The chancellor also confirmed widely reported plans to abolish the Work Capability Assessment for disabled people to “separate benefit entitlement from an individual’s ability to work”.

Mr Hunt promised a new programme called Universal Support, describing it as “a new, voluntary employment scheme for disabled people where the government will spend up to £4,000 per person to help them find appropriate jobs and put in place the support they need”.

And he said there would be a £400m fund to help those who are forced to leave work because of a health condition to get support in the workplace.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt MP has announced that the energy price guarantee will remain at £2,500 until the end of June.

Mr Hunt confirmed he would keep the incoming rise in corporation tax – from 19% to 25% – despite anger from some of his own backbenchers.

But in a bid to keep businesses happy, he introduced a new benefit where every pound a company invests in equipment can be deducted in full and immediately from taxable profits – “a corporation tax cut worth an average of £9bn a year for every year it is in place”.

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In what appeared to echo recent Labour policy, the chancellor announced continued state-financed investment in nuclear power and the launch of Great British Nuclear, saying the public body will “bring down costs and provide opportunities across the nuclear supply chain to help provide up to one quarter of our electricity by 2050”.

And he said nuclear energy would be reclassified as “environmentally sustainable” to give it the same access to investment incentives as renewables.

Today’s statement was Mr Hunt’s first full budget as chancellor – having been brought in by Liz Truss to reverse a number of measures from her disastrous mini-budget last October and kept on by Rishi Sunak after he took over as prime minister.

It came against a backdrop of mass industrial action, with hundreds of thousands of workers today staging what is believed to be the biggest walkout since the current wave of unrest began.

Teachers, university lecturers, civil servants, junior doctors, London Underground drivers and BBC journalists are among those taking to picket lines around the country amid widespread anger over pay, job security, pensions and conditions.

Labour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said ahead of the budget that it was “an opportunity for the government to get us off their path of managed decline”.

She added, if her party were in power, their focus would be on securing the highest growth in the G7.

“Our plan will help us lead the pack again, by creating good jobs and productivity growth across every part of our country, so everyone, not just a few, feel better off,” she added.

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UK’s biggest housebuilders to pay record sum after CMA investigation into sensitive information-sharing

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UK's biggest housebuilders to pay record sum after CMA investigation into sensitive information-sharing

The UK’s biggest housebuilders are set to pay a record sum to fund affordable housing after the competition regulator investigated sensitive information sharing among the firms.

A total of £100m, paid for by seven companies, will go to affordable housing programmes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, following a Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) investigation.

The inquiry was launched last year due to concerns that the companies were sharing commercially sensitive information, which could influence the prices of new homes.

There was concern that the housebuilders – Barratt Redrow, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Bloor Homes, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry – exchanged details about property sales, including pricing, viewing numbers and buyer incentives such as upgraded kitchens or stamp duty contributions.

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It’s resulted in an agreement to make the combined £100m payment – the largest secured via a commitment from companies under CMA investigation. Hundreds of new homes could be funded with the money, the CMA said, helping low-income households, first-time buyers and vulnerable people.

The businesses have voluntarily agreed to pay the sum and have not acknowledged wrongdoing. No finding of rule-breaking or illegality has been made.

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What next?

They have also offered to sign up to legally binding commitments to prevent anticompetitive behaviour.

Among the proposals advanced by the companies was an agreement not to share some information, like prices houses were sold for, with other housebuilders, except in limited circumstances, and to work with the Home Builders Federation and Homes for Scotland to develop industry-wide guidance on information sharing.

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The CMA has said it will consult on the changes.

If accepted, the commitments will become legally binding, and the CMA will not need to decide whether the housebuilders broke competition law.

Initially, eight companies were under investigation, but following a merger of Barratt Homes and Redrow, the number became seven.

“Housing is a critical sector for the UK economy and housing costs are a substantial part of people’s monthly spend, so it’s essential that competition works well. This keeps prices as low as possible and increases choice,” the CMA chief executive, Sarah Cardell, said.

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.

A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.

Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal

Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.

Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”

Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”

The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.

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‘It stole a lot from me’

Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.

“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.

What are the inquiry’s recommendations?

Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:

• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, ⁠and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it

Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”

He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.

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‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’

The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.

Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.

“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.

“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”

The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.

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Three things you need to know about Post Office report

She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.

Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.

“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.

He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.

“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”

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Public finances in ‘relatively vulnerable position.’, OBR warns

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Public finances in 'relatively vulnerable position.', OBR warns

The UK’s public finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position”, the government’s official forecaster has warned.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) cited a drag from successive economic shocks, recent U-turns on spending cuts and higher-than-expected policy commitments.

It sounded alarm over the projected path for debt as a result, in its annual fiscal risks and sustainability report.

It saw total debt above 270% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the early 2070s – up from a current level of 96.5% – declaring that rising debts have led to “a substantial erosion of the UK’s capacity to respond to future shocks”.

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The OBR’s report highlighted damage from the COVID pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But it raised fears that past and current government policies were further harming the sustainability of the public finances.

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The report said that the pension triple lock, for example, was now estimated to cost £15.5bn annually by 2029-30.

That was “around three times higher than initial expectations”, it said.

The lock, which rises each year in line with inflation, wage growth or 2.5% – whichever is higher – had risen by more than the 2.5% base in eight of the 13 years of operation to date, the report stated.

The watchdog said it reflected more volatile inflation than expected.

It also picked up on the latest government U-turns over planned welfare and winter fuel payment cuts in the face of rebellions by Labour MPs.

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Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’

The decisions are expected to leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves facing a black hole of £6.75bn while weaker-than-expected economic growth could add a further £9bn to that sum in the run-up to the autumn budget, according to Sky News projections that see a void of around £20bn.

The OBR highlighted future risks from rising defence spending and the impact of climate change.

Public sector pay demands could also prove a drag, with resident doctors voting in favour of strikes over pay.

While ministers acknowledge damage to the public purse from the U-turns, Ms Reeves has repeatedly ruled out a new wave of borrowing to fund a spending spree.

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Could the rich be taxed to fill black hole?

As such, the government has not ruled out the prospect of some form of wealth tax to help meet its commitments despite the top 1% of earners contributing almost a third of all income tax already – on top of other targeted taxes such as capital gains.

The report said: “Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years in the aftermath of the shocks, debt has also continued to rise and borrowing remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances.

“Planned tax rises have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned.”

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said of the report: “The OBR’s report lays bare the damage: Britain now has the third-highest deficit and the fourth-highest debt burden in Europe, with borrowing costs among the highest in the developed world.

“Under Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement and Keir Starmer’s weak leadership, our public finances have become dangerously exposed – vulnerable to future shocks, welfare spending rising unsustainably, taxes rising to record highs and crippling levels of debt interest.

“Labour’s recklessness risks it all – your pension, your job, your home, your savings.”

A Number 10 spokesman said: “We recognise the realities set out in the OBR’s report and we’re taking the decisions needed to provide stability to the public finances.”

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