How likely is it that Putin will ever appear in a courtroom?
As the ICC issues an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, how likely is it that he will ever appear in a courtroom?
A few weeks ago I sat down in the US State Department with President Joe Biden‘s ambassador for Global Criminal Justice.
Beth Van Schaack is the woman the president has tasked with pursuing the Russian leader to the dock.
I asked her: “Many will see it as inconceivable that Vladimir Putin could be put on trial for war crimes. How important is it to pursue justice however unlikely it may be?”
Ukraine war latest: Judges issue arrest warrant for Putin over alleged war crimes
“Well…” she said, disagreeing with the premise of my question… “Augusto Pinochet, Slobodan Milosevic, Hissene Habre of Chad? I don’t think any of those men thought they would ever see the inside of a courtroom and every single one of them did…
“We need to play a long game here. One never knows how situations will change.
“And as long as you have collected evidence, produced dossiers on responsible individuals, you can stand ready until a court somewhere around the world is able to suddenly assert jurisdiction, and then the prosecutors will move.”
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ICC issues arrest warrant for Putin
A global effort for justice
Ms Van Schaack leads the US Office of Global Criminal Justice. Her job is to advise the Secretary of State (Antony Blinken) and other leadership around the US on issues of justice and accountability.
Her team has worked with prosecutors and human rights organisations globally to investigate and collate evidence from Ukraine, building a case against Russian individuals leading all the way to Mr Putin himself.
“We’ve now seen war crimes being committed on a systemic basis across all areas where Russia’s troops are deployed; terrible stories, credible, corroborated by a UN Commission of Inquiry and others, of civilians being deliberately targeted of disproportionate force being used, civilians being killed in Russian custody, POWs being killed, and then efforts to cover up these crimes…” she told me.
“We’ve seen the satellite imagery and other imagery even just taken from ordinary CCTV cameras on people’s front yards of bodies lying, hands tied behind their back clear evidence of either torture, or summary execution-style killings.
“There’s also the attacks on a theatre, on a train station of people fleeing the conflict. You have attacks on ordinary convoys of civilians trying to get out; people just going to work, carrying grocery bags with their groceries strewn around the dead body….”
Beth Van Schaack has been tasked with pursuing Putin to the dock
She continued: “These images do stick in one’s head. They’re searing, searing images, and all of them now are being collected by the prosecutor general but other investigative organisations including the UN Commission of Inquiry, the International Criminal Court, and the European prosecutorial authorities who are increasingly united around the imperative of justice.”
Connecting the dots
Ambassador Van Schaack explained that crimes can be linked and lines are drawn to show that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin was, through his authority, responsible for these crimes.
“We need to connect the crimes we’re seeing on the ground – that we have very clear digital evidence of – with those and in the position of command and control.
“So go up the chain of command – who ordered these offences? Who allowed them to be committed? Who has failed to prosecute and investigate those deemed most responsible? Who has failed to properly supervise their subordinates? That’s now the challenge – that linkage evidence.”
On the likelihood of an arrest of officials around President Putin, she said: “I think what drives everyone in this field is the idea that someday, circumstances will change.
“Someone will slip up, someone will travel, they will slip in with a false identity, and individuals will recognise them on the street, they will contact law enforcement and law enforcement will be ready, because we will have collected evidence from the start of this terrible conflict, precisely to be ready for that moment.”
Read more:
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Different avenues to justice
Ms Van Schaack described several avenues that will be pursued to seek justice and there are three currently operational as we speak.
“Number one is the Prosecutor General in Ukraine, investigating these cases in his own domestic system with his colleagues, with support from the international community. The UK, the EU and the United States have brought a number of cases, have achieved some convictions, and a number of cases are ongoing,” she said.
“Avenue number two is the International Criminal Court currently seized of this matter, looking at cases that may be more appropriate for an international court to take.”
This is the avenue through which the arrest warrant for Mr Putin has now been issued.
She continued: “Avenue three, which should not be forgotten, is domestic courts around the world. Many European states have formed a joint investigative team to share information directly with each other about the condition of potential abuses, and potential responsible individuals.”
Ukraine has also sought some sort of mechanism to be able to prosecute the specific crime of aggression.
On this, Ms Van Schaack said: “This is a high priority for Ukraine, because they see that initial act of aggression as being the original sin that unleashed all of the other war crimes and atrocities that we’re seeing around the country.”
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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