How likely is it that Putin will ever appear in a courtroom?

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2 years ago

March 17, 2023

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As the ICC issues an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, how likely is it that he will ever appear in a courtroom?

A few weeks ago I sat down in the US State Department with President Joe Biden‘s ambassador for Global Criminal Justice.

Beth Van Schaack is the woman the president has tasked with pursuing the Russian leader to the dock.

I asked her: “Many will see it as inconceivable that Vladimir Putin could be put on trial for war crimes. How important is it to pursue justice however unlikely it may be?”

Ukraine war latest: Judges issue arrest warrant for Putin over alleged war crimes

“Well…” she said, disagreeing with the premise of my question… “Augusto Pinochet, Slobodan Milosevic, Hissene Habre of Chad? I don’t think any of those men thought they would ever see the inside of a courtroom and every single one of them did…

“We need to play a long game here. One never knows how situations will change.

“And as long as you have collected evidence, produced dossiers on responsible individuals, you can stand ready until a court somewhere around the world is able to suddenly assert jurisdiction, and then the prosecutors will move.”

A global effort for justice

Ms Van Schaack leads the US Office of Global Criminal Justice. Her job is to advise the Secretary of State (Antony Blinken) and other leadership around the US on issues of justice and accountability.

Her team has worked with prosecutors and human rights organisations globally to investigate and collate evidence from Ukraine, building a case against Russian individuals leading all the way to Mr Putin himself.

“We’ve now seen war crimes being committed on a systemic basis across all areas where Russia’s troops are deployed; terrible stories, credible, corroborated by a UN Commission of Inquiry and others, of civilians being deliberately targeted of disproportionate force being used, civilians being killed in Russian custody, POWs being killed, and then efforts to cover up these crimes…” she told me.

“We’ve seen the satellite imagery and other imagery even just taken from ordinary CCTV cameras on people’s front yards of bodies lying, hands tied behind their back clear evidence of either torture, or summary execution-style killings.

“There’s also the attacks on a theatre, on a train station of people fleeing the conflict. You have attacks on ordinary convoys of civilians trying to get out; people just going to work, carrying grocery bags with their groceries strewn around the dead body….”

She continued: “These images do stick in one’s head. They’re searing, searing images, and all of them now are being collected by the prosecutor general but other investigative organisations including the UN Commission of Inquiry, the International Criminal Court, and the European prosecutorial authorities who are increasingly united around the imperative of justice.”

Connecting the dots

Ambassador Van Schaack explained that crimes can be linked and lines are drawn to show that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin was, through his authority, responsible for these crimes.

“We need to connect the crimes we’re seeing on the ground – that we have very clear digital evidence of – with those and in the position of command and control.

“So go up the chain of command – who ordered these offences? Who allowed them to be committed? Who has failed to prosecute and investigate those deemed most responsible? Who has failed to properly supervise their subordinates? That’s now the challenge – that linkage evidence.”

On the likelihood of an arrest of officials around President Putin, she said: “I think what drives everyone in this field is the idea that someday, circumstances will change.

“Someone will slip up, someone will travel, they will slip in with a false identity, and individuals will recognise them on the street, they will contact law enforcement and law enforcement will be ready, because we will have collected evidence from the start of this terrible conflict, precisely to be ready for that moment.”

Different avenues to justice

Ms Van Schaack described several avenues that will be pursued to seek justice and there are three currently operational as we speak.

“Number one is the Prosecutor General in Ukraine, investigating these cases in his own domestic system with his colleagues, with support from the international community. The UK, the EU and the United States have brought a number of cases, have achieved some convictions, and a number of cases are ongoing,” she said.

“Avenue number two is the International Criminal Court currently seized of this matter, looking at cases that may be more appropriate for an international court to take.”

This is the avenue through which the arrest warrant for Mr Putin has now been issued.

She continued: “Avenue three, which should not be forgotten, is domestic courts around the world. Many European states have formed a joint investigative team to share information directly with each other about the condition of potential abuses, and potential responsible individuals.”

Ukraine has also sought some sort of mechanism to be able to prosecute the specific crime of aggression.

On this, Ms Van Schaack said: “This is a high priority for Ukraine, because they see that initial act of aggression as being the original sin that unleashed all of the other war crimes and atrocities that we’re seeing around the country.”

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Belgium announces it will recognise Palestinian state

Published

6 hours ago

September 2, 2025

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Belgium announces it will recognise Palestinian state

The Belgian government has said it will officially recognise the State of Palestine at the UN General Assembly this month.

The country’s foreign minister, Maxime Prevot, announced it will join the UK, France, Canada, and Australia in recognising a Palestinian state.

Belgium will also introduce “firm sanctions” against the Israeli government, he said, including a ban on imports from West Bank settlements and possible judicial prosecutions.

The Israeli foreign ministry and its Belgian embassy have not yet commented on the announcement.

However, its foreign ministry previously said the UK’s plan to recognise Palestine “constitutes a reward for Hamas”.

Sir Keir Starmer announced in July that the UK would recognise a Palestinian state unless Israel meets certain conditions, those being:

• Israel takes substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza“

• Israel agrees to a ceasefire

• Israel commits to a long-term sustainable peace – reviving the prospect of a two-state solution

• Israel must allow the UN to restart the supply of aid

• There must be no annexations in the West Bank

In response, the Israeli foreign ministry said: “The shift in the British government’s position at this time, following the French move and internal political pressures, constitutes a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of hostages.”

The UN General Assembly session in New York will begin on 9 September. Ireland, Spain, and Norway all officially recognised a Palestinian state last year.

Out of the 193 United Nations member states, 147 already recognise Palestine as a state as of March 2025.

Earlier this month, Israeli minister Bezalel Smotrich announced plans to build a new settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which he said would “bury” the idea of a Palestinian state.

It comes after US secretary of state Marco Rubio revoked the visas of 81 delegates from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) – blocking them from attending the general assembly.

Under a 1947 UN agreement, the US is generally required to allow access for foreign diplomats to the UN in New York.

But Washington has said it can deny visas for security, extremism and foreign policy reasons.

The number of Palestinians killed in Gaza is now more than 63,000, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry. Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

It added that nine more people, including three children, died of malnutrition and starvation over Monday, raising deaths from such causes to at least 348, including 127 children.

The war in Gaza was triggered when Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage.

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More than 1,000 feared dead in Sudan landslide, rebel group says

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6 hours ago

September 2, 2025

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More than 1,000 feared dead in Sudan landslide, rebel group says

More than 1,000 people are feared dead after a landslide in a village in western Sudan, the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM) has said.

The rebel group said only one survivor was found, and that the village in the Marrah Mountains area, in the Darfur region, was destroyed.

SLM leader Abdelwahid Mohamed Nour said in a statement that the landslide struck on Sunday, 31 August, after days of heavy rainfall.

He appealed to the United Nations and international aid agencies for help in recovering the bodies.

The SLM controls the area located in the Darfur region in western Sudan.

Fleeing the civil war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), residents had sought shelter in the Marrah Mountains area, where food and medication are insufficient.

In January, the US determined that the RSF and its militias were committing genocide in Sudan.

The RSF rejected the claim and said: “America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong.”

The RSF has been fighting Sudan’s army for territorial control of the country since war erupted in the capital, Khartoum, in April 2023.

The ensuing devastation has been described as the worst humanitarian crisis ever recorded – with over 11 million people forced out of their homes, tens of thousands dead, and 30 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

Minni Minnawi, leader of a faction of the group, said in March last year that 1,500 troops would support the Sudanese army in the civil war against the RSF, according to the Sudan Tribune.

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Afghanistan earthquake: A catastrophe compounded by Trump’s aid cuts

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6 hours ago

September 2, 2025

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Afghanistan earthquake: A catastrophe compounded by Trump's aid cuts

Earthquakes represent a constant danger in Afghanistan – a country which sits across three geological fault lines.

This most recent rupture near the city of Jalalabad – leaving more than 800 people dead – represents the third major quake in the past four years.

But the people of this impoverished nation are vulnerable in a number of ways.

The impact of foreign aid cuts

Since the Taliban took control in 2021, the international community has withdrawn much of the financial support which formed the bulk of government spending in Afghanistan.

Even humanitarian aid, which generally bypasses government institutions, has shrunk substantially – from $3.8bn (£2.8bn) in 2022 to $767m (£566.6m) this year.

The US government, through its international development arm USAID, provided 45% of all assistance granted to Afghanistan last year – but the Trump administration has slashed those sums.

The UK, along with France, Germany, Sweden, and others have also made deep cuts to humanitarian aid.

As a consequence, hundreds of hospitals and local health clinics in the country have been shut this year and related medical posts have been lost.

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This crisis comes as the country tries to absorb millions of people who fled when the Taliban took power. More than two million have come back this year, with Pakistan and Iran taking measures to force their return.

On arrival, they discover a country where more than half the population requires urgent humanitarian assistance, according to the UN – with millions suffering from acute food insecurity.

Large parts of northern Afghanistan have been stricken with the long-term drought.

A catastrophe compounded in a nation that ranks as one of the poorest – and most desperate – on Earth.