NHL playoff watch: Examining the Rangers’ and Penguins’ postseason outlooks
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Tim KavanaghESPN.com
As the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins get set for Saturday night’s game (8 ET, ABC and ESPN+), they are both in great shape to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rangers have a greater than 99% chance of making the postseason, while the Penguins’ chances are 73%. But what happens when they get there? And could they meet again for another epic showdown like last year’s?
The Rangers are on track for a first-round matchup against their Hudson River rival New Jersey Devils. The Devils won the first tilt between the teams 5-3 on Nov. 28. Each has won a 4-3 overtime decision in the time since, and they’ll play again on March 30.
Money Puck gives the Rangers a 26.1% chance of making the second round of the playoffs (where they’d potentially meet the Penguins again), 15.8% chance of making the conference final, 2.0% chance of making the Stanley Cup Final, and 0.7% chance of winning it all.
As for the Penguins, they appear poised to take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. The Pens have lost two games cleanly to the Canes and two other games in OT; however, all of those were during the “we have Andrei Svechnikov in the lineup” era of Canes 2022-23 hockey. A lineup without Svechnikov would theoretically be less powerful.
Despite Svechnikov’s absence, Money Puck doesn’t love the Pens’ chances of winning the series, but it does offer a slightly rosier picture than the Rangers’ if they do get past the Metro Division: It’s a 25.2% chance for a trip to the second round, 10.6% chance of making the conference final, 4.4% chance of making the Stanley Cup Final, and 1.9% chance of winning the Cup.
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Pittsburgh Penguins
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Saturday’s games
Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings, 1 p.m. (NHLN)
Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, 2 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, 2 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, 4 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, 6 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, 10 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes, 10:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m. (NHLN)
Friday’s scoreboard
Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
St. Louis Blues 5, Washington Capitals 2
Anaheim Ducks 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 107
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 131
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 55%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 8%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 8
Metropolitan Division
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 118
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 95
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 115
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 73%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 50%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 6%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 11
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ VGK (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ CGY (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ DET (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 58%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. WPG (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 27%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 78
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 75
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 65
Next game: @ ARI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3
Pacific Division
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. CBJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 100
Next game: @ SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 93%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 26%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 77
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 67
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 62
Next game: vs. NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16:
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Paula Lavigne
Florida prosecutors confirmed in a hearing Friday that their key witness in the murder case of a former University of Miami football player is alive and was contacted Thursday by officers where he lives in Kentucky.
ESPN reported Thursday that, despite prosecutors stating July 17 that they tried every effort to locate 81-year-old Paul Conner and had a report from a commercial database he was dead, journalists found Conner alive at his apartment in Louisville.
Conner is the only eyewitness in the case against former Miami football player Rashaun Jones, who is facing second-degree murder charges in the 2006 shooting of teammate Bryan Pata. Jones, who was arrested in 2021, has pleaded not guilty.
Miami assistant state attorney Cristina Diamond told Florida 11th Circuit Court Judge Cristina Miranda that, after the ESPN story was published, her lead detective reached out to police in Louisville and asked them to go to Conner’s last-known address — where ESPN reporters had found him.
“They were able to make contact with Paul Conner. So at this time, what I can tell the court is that Paul Conner is alive,” Diamond said, adding that she had reviewed the officer’s body camera footage. “I think the state needs to do a little bit of further investigation. It appears that he was very confused and is not certain what the case is about.”
When ESPN reporters interviewed Conner on Aug. 25, he said he did not remember details about the case. Miranda had ruled in July that, assuming Conner was dead, the state could present jurors a videotape of prior testimony he gave in 2022 in a bond hearing in the case in lieu of having him testify in person.
If a determination is made that Conner is not competent to testify, she said, “we may still be in the same situation.”
Conner first spoke to police shortly after the Nov. 7, 2006, shooting, and he picked Jones out of a police lineup. Police reinterviewed him in 2020. Conner also recounted what he saw at the 2022 bond hearing and in a 2023 deposition with attorneys.
At the time of the shooting, Conner lived in the same apartment complex as Pata. He said during his 2022 testimony that he heard a “pop” and saw someone “jogging” away from the parking lot entrance near where Pata, a likely high pick in the 2007 NFL draft, was shot once in the head.
How the confirmation of Conner’s status affects the case, which is scheduled for trial Oct. 6, is to be determined after attorneys argued in court Friday about what steps to take next regarding questioning Conner and going over the evidence of the state’s prior efforts to find him.
Jones’ attorney Sara Alvarez told Miranda that she wanted to request a hearing to determine if prosecutors violated the rules of evidence, saying she thought the false conclusion of Conner’s death “may have been intentional.”
Diamond rebutted that accusation, saying Miami-Dade officers made multiple attempts to reach Conner.
“This is our key witness in the case. This is somebody we want,” Diamond told the judge. “The defense is accusing me of making misrepresentations to the court. Every representation made to the court was based upon a conversation with an officer who I was prepared to have testify.”
Diamond was referring to officers from the Louisville Police Department who she said went to Conner’s address over the summer and “spoke to someone but believed it was not the witness.” She said she had a copy of the body camera footage as well. She said those officers told her they also spoke to someone with the apartment’s leasing office who did not find Conner in their records.
She said they did not locate a death certificate in Kentucky but relied on the third-party commercial database that stated Conner was deceased. Jones’ counsel asked for a copy of that report along with other records that would verify the state’s efforts.
The Louisville officers did not testify Friday, as the judge decided to give the attorneys some time to correspond with each other and decide how they wanted to proceed.
ESPN had asked for records or information from the Louisville Police Department regarding efforts to locate Conner, and a department spokesman said there were no records of any officer going to Conner’s address this summer prior to a July 22 request from a former colleague who had called for a welfare check on Conner after being contacted by ESPN reporters.
ESPN made multiple requests to police and the Miami-Dade State Attorney for records of their efforts to find Conner. After initially saying they had no documents, they eventually provided an email exchange in which lead detective Juan Segovia wrote that he left 15 voicemail messages with Conner since May. Segovia added that he also sent emails to an address that officers had used with him previously. They also provided a copy of a June 6 letter addressed to Conner at his Louisville address that asked him to contact their office.
They provided an email exchange with a Louisville police officer, but it had no information about Conner or efforts to find him, and they provided a copy of a subpoena for the officer to testify. ESPN reached back out to Louisville police with the name of the officer and a request for further information and is waiting on a response.
Michigan State wide receiver Nick Marsh and leading rusher Makhi Frazier are expected to play at USC on Saturday night, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel on Friday.
Marsh had a leg injury in last week’s win against Youngstown State, and Frazier suffered a lower-body injury. Both are cleared and in line to play in the Spartans’ Big Ten opener, sources said.
Through three games, Marsh has caught 16 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns, which is tied for second among Big Ten wide receivers.
Frazier began his sophomore season by rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in Michigan State’s win over Western Michigan. Through three games, he has totaled 206 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Both Frazier and Marsh will face off against a USC team that is also 3-0 and boasts a defense that has forced seven turnovers this season.
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