Brent oil prices logged losses Monday, dropping below $72 per barrel in intraday trade amid turmoil in the banking sector.
The Brent contract with May delivery was trading at $71.64 per barrel at 11:00 London time, down by $1.33 per barrel from the Friday close. The front-month April WTI Nymex was at $65.52 per barrel, lower by $1.22 per barrel from the previous settlement.
Oil prices have come under pressure from a crisis in the Western banking sector, which has seen the downfall of tech startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of embattled Credit Suisse by Swiss rival UBS in the span of two weeks. Two sources within the influential OPEC+ alliance signaled to CNBC at the end of last week that banking uncertainty was feeding into fears of another financial collapse to the tune of the 2008 crisis.
OPEC+ delegates could only comment on condition of anonymity, as they are not allowed to publicly discuss the topic.
One of the sources noted that the drop was likely temporary and not underpinned by supply-demand fundamentals surrounding the physical commodity, but stressed the need to monitor the potential effect on central bank interest rate decisions and inflation. The European Central Bank pressed ahead with a further rate hike of 50 basis points on March 16, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is due to reach its own rate decision this week.
Over the past year, OPEC+ has championed stability in the oil price landscape to encourage long-term investment in spare capacity and avoid supply shortages. An OPEC+ ministerial technical committee is next set to adjourn on April 3.
In a note dated March 15, UBS analysts indicated that the wider financial market turbulence was unlikely to affect crude oil production rates, but flagged that “during periods of elevated volatility, investors tend to pull out of risky assets like oil and invest in safer corners of the market.”
It added that the options market is now intensifying the decline in oil prices through delta-hedging plays.
Citing “banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” analysts at Goldman Sachs on March 18 cut their oil price outlook, now expecting Brent prices to hit $94 per barrel in the upcoming 12 months and $97 per barrel over the second half of 2024 — compared with previous projections at $100 per barrel for both periods.
Questions linger over the potential demand boost from a reopening China — the world’s largest importer of crude oil, whose buying was reined in for much of last year by Covid-19 restrictions.
Paris-based watchdog the International Energy Agency nevertheless said in the March issue of its monthly Oil Market Report that it expects world oil demand growth to “accelerate sharply over the course of 2023,” seeing “rebounding air traffic and the release of pent-up Chinese demand dominate the recovery.”
The supply picture has stayed muddied by Russia, whose oil flows have been choked by Western sanctions implemented against its seaborne crude and oil products in December and February, respectively. Moscow announced a unilateral 500,000 barrels per day cut in its crude output in March, announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Feb. 10.
It remains to be seen whether Russia’s declines will be long term or are the product of technical difficulties to sustain field production rates following the winter cold, one OPEC+ delegate told CNBC last week. According to the state Saudi Press Agency, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman received Novak in Riyadh on March 16, with both countries reaffirming their commitment to the OPEC+ policy of removing a combined 2 million barrels per day of production from the markets until the end of 2023, agreed in October.
Members of media chat before the start of a press conference by Aramco at the Plaza Conference Center in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia November 3, 2019.
Hamad I Mohammed | Reuters
Saudi Aramco on Tuesday posted a drop in second-quarter revenues, citing lower crude oil and refined chemical products prices that were only partially offset by higher traded volumes.
The world’s largest oil company declared an adjusted net income of 92.04 billion Saudi riyal ($24.5 billion) over the three months to the end of June. The result compares with a forecast of adjusted net income of $23.7 billion, according to an analyst survey estimate supplied by the company.
Second-quarter revenues dropped to 378.83 billion Saudi riyals from 425.71 billion Saudi riyal in the same period of the previous year.
“Market fundamentals remain strong and we anticipate oil demand in the second half of 2025 to be more than two million barrels per day higher than the first half,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in a Tuesday statement accompanying the results.
Crude prices have stayed depressed over the course of the year, barring a brief second-quarter flare-up sparked by Israel-Iran tensions. Futures have been under pressure from an uncertain outlook for demand, exacerbated since April by the rollout ofWashington’s wide-spanning tariffs. The protectionist trade measures muddy the picture for growth in the world’s largest economy and the future of the U.S. dollar, which denominates most commodities — including crude oil.
Aramco’s income is set to see a boost from higher output, after Saudi Arabia – and seven other OPEC and non-OPEC partners — complete unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts through a last tranche in September. Saudi Arabia most recently produced 9.356 million barrels per day in June, according to independent analyst estimates compiled in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.
Aramco has increasingly tapped debt markets, with two issuances totalling $9 billion in the second half of 2024 and a three-part bond sale of $5 billion this year.
Front of mind for investors is the dividend policy at Aramco, which in March slashed investor returns for 2025 to $85.4 billion — down sharply from the $124.2 billion of 2024 — after a first-quarter decline in net profits. Aramco declared a base dividend of $21.1 billion and a performance-linked dividend of $0.2 billion in the third quarter.
The company’s dividend yield stood at 5.5% as of Monday, still ahead of U.S. industry peer Exxon Mobil‘s 3.6% and Chevron‘s 4.5%, according to FactSet data.
Aramco’s payouts ripple sharply into the budget of Saudi Arabia, which has been juggling diversifying its economy away from oil reliance under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s signature Vision 2030 program. Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product expanded by 3.9% in the second quarter, boosted by non-oil activities.
More than 100,000 home batteries across California stepped up as a virtual power plant last week in a scheduled test event, and the results were impressive, according to new analysis from The Brattle Group.
Sunrun was the largest aggregator, Tesla was the largest OEM, and most of the batteries were enrolled in California’s Demand-Side Grid Support (DSGS) program.
Sunrun’s distributed battery fleet delivered more than two-thirds of the energy during a scheduled two-hour grid support test on July 29. In total, the event pumped an average of 535 megawatts (MW) onto the grid – enough to power over half of San Francisco.
The event, run between 7 and 9 pm, was coordinated by the California Energy Commission, CAISO (California Independent System Operator), and utilities to prepare for stress on the grid during August and September heat waves. And it worked.
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Sunrun alone averaged over 360 MW during the two-hour window. The batteries kicked in right when electricity demand typically spikes in the evening, acting just like a traditional power plant, but from people’s homes.
Brattle’s analysis found that the battery output made a visible dent in statewide grid load, when the power is needed most. “Performance was consistent across the event, without major fluctuations or any attrition,” said Ryan Hledik, a principal at The Brattle Group. He called it “dependable, planning-grade performance at scale.”
The Brattle Group
Residential batteries, Hledik explained, don’t just help shave off demand during critical hours; they can reduce the need for new power plants entirely. “They can serve CAISO’s net peak, reduce the need to invest in new generation capacity, and relieve strain on the system associated with the evening load ramp,” he said.
This isn’t a one-off. Sunrun’s fleet already helped drop peak demand earlier this summer, delivering 325 MW during a similar event on June 24. The company compensates customers up to $150 per battery per season for participating.
Sunrun CEO Mary Powell summed it up: “Distributed home batteries are a powerful and flexible resource that reliably delivers power to the grid at a moment’s notice, benefiting all households by preventing blackouts, alleviating peak demand, and reducing extreme price spikes.”
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Hyundai’s new Elexio electric SUV, which is built in China, could be sold in overseas markets. The CEO of Hyundai Australia calls it “a promising vehicle” that could help the company regain market share from Tesla, BYD, and others.
Will Hyundai’s new Elexio SUV be sold overseas?
The Elexio SUV is the first dedicated electric vehicle from Hyundai’s joint venture with BAIC in China, Beijing Hyundai.
According to a new report, Hyundai’s new electric SUV could be sold in overseas markets, including Australia. Don Romano, the CEO of Hyundai Australia, told journalists (via EV Central) last week during the launch event for the new IONIQ 9 that the company has done a “terrible job” with its EVs so far.
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“And the only explanation for that is that we haven’t put enough focus into it,” he explained. However, Romano promises the automaker will do better.
Hyundai plans to boost marketing and support its dealership network, which only began selling IONIQ EV models a little over a year ago.
The Hyundai Elexio electric SUV (Source: Beijing Hyundai)
In what mostly went under the radar, Romano also suggested the new Elexio SUV could arrive in Australia. “It’s under evaluation now,” he said, adding, “it’s definitely a promising vehicle.”
Despite this, it may have a few hurdles to clear. Hyundai’s Australian boss explained, “I still have work to do to ensure that it’s the right vehicle in the right segment at the right price for our market. And I have not reached that level yet.”
Hyundai Elexio electric SUV interior (Source: Beijing Hyundai)
Romano told journalists that a final decision needs to be made “in the next 60 to 90 days,” and to check back in three months when he will have a definitive answer.
Hyundai Australia is also looking to launch the IONIQ 2, a smaller, more affordable EV to sit between the Inster EV and Kona Electric.
Hyundai Elexio SUV (Source: Beijing Hyundai)
Romano said, “It’s a potential opportunity,” but didn’t provide any details. He said, at this point, he’s just glad Hyundai is producing it. “Now I just need to get the details and find out, will it fit into our overall product plan and create enough demand to where it becomes a viable option for us? So my initial thought is absolutely. Yep.” Hyundai Australia’s boss told journalists.
The new EVs would help Hyundai, which has been struggling to keep pace in the transition to electric, compete in Australia and other overseas markets.
Hyundai Elexio electric SUV during global testing (Source: Beijing Hyundai)
As of June 2025, Hyundai has sold only 853 EVs in Australia. In comparison, Tesla has sold 14,146 electric vehicles, and BYD has sold over 8,300. Even Kia is selling more EVs in Australia, with 4,402 units sold in the first six months of the year.
Measuring 4,615 mm in length, 1,875 mm in width, and 1,673 mm in height, Hyundai’s electric SUV is slightly smaller than the Tesla Model Y.
It recently underwent three consecutive crash tests among several other global evaluations, consistently outperforming benchmarks. Based on Hyundai’s E-GMP platform that powers nearly all Hyundai and Kia EVs, the Elexio has a CLTC driving range of up to 435 miles (700 km)
Hyundai is set to launch it in China in the third quarter of 2025. Prices have yet to be announced, but it’s expected to start at around 140,000 yuan ($19,500).
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